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1081  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: AMA: Ask a Veteran of Bitcoin on: June 22, 2013, 01:05:52 AM
Now that you have seen BTC breach a 1 billion $ market cap and beyond and the multitude of services, businesses and eco-system spring to life, what are your expectations going forward for 2014, 2015 and beyond.
1082  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Everyone Panic. There's a lawyer among us. [FinCEN Walkthrough on p2] on: June 22, 2013, 12:59:41 AM
Moved from another thread:


so to sum things up as far as your interpretation of the current guidelines is; anybody in the us that mines will be required to be licenced?

No, quite the opposite.  My (unpopular) position is that only miners operating as a business must register according to the guidance.  I believe that the guidance is unclear, and that I may certainly be wrong about this position.  It's just my interpretation of an imperfect document.

Ok,
Which brings me back to the "as a business" definition.

Here is what I found in a ~10 minute search on the subject:
http://www.irs.gov/uac/Business-or-Hobby%3F-Answer-Has-Implications-for-Deductions

Quote
<snip/>................. Generally, an activity qualifies as a business if it is carried on with the reasonable expectation of earning a profit.

In order to make this determination, taxpayers should consider the following factors:

  • Does the time and effort put into the activity indicate an intention to make a profit?
  • Does the taxpayer depend on income from the activity?
  • If there are losses, are they due to circumstances beyond the taxpayer’s control or did they occur in the start-up phase of the business?
  • Has the taxpayer changed methods of operation to improve profitability?
  • Does the taxpayer or his/her advisors have the knowledge needed to carry on the activity as a successful business?
  • Has the taxpayer made a profit in similar activities in the past?
  • Does the activity make a profit in some years?
  • Can the taxpayer expect to make a profit in the future from the appreciation of assets used in the activity?

In my case:
  • Yes
  • No, but I would like it to be Smiley
  • Possibly
  • Possibly
  • Yes
  • No
  • Yes
  • Yes if the value of BTC goes up, less the deductions for depreciating mining equipment if any


The IRS presumes that an activity is carried on for profit if it makes a profit during at least three of the last five tax years, including the current year — at least two of the last seven years for activities that consist primarily of breeding, showing, training or racing horses.
1083  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: AMA: Ask a Veteran of Bitcoin on: June 22, 2013, 12:58:00 AM
Are you concerned about the recent developments with FinCen, IRS and the multitude of services that have been shutdown or effectively nuttered?
1084  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: TerraHash order. on: June 22, 2013, 12:55:47 AM
4 auctions worldwide now:
http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_sacat=0&_nkw=TerraHash&LH_PrefLoc=2
1085  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: FinCEN Issues New Clarification on BitCoin [June 13, 2013] on: June 22, 2013, 12:21:14 AM
so to sum things up as far as your interpretation of the current guidelines is; anybody in the us that mines will be required to be licenced?

No, quite the opposite.  My (unpopular) position is that only miners operating as a business must register according to the guidance.  I believe that the guidance is unclear, and that I may certainly be wrong about this position.  It's just my interpretation of an imperfect document.

Ok,
Which brings me back to the "as a business" definition.

Here is what I found in a ~10 minute search on the subject:
http://www.irs.gov/uac/Business-or-Hobby%3F-Answer-Has-Implications-for-Deductions

Quote
<snip/>................. Generally, an activity qualifies as a business if it is carried on with the reasonable expectation of earning a profit.

In order to make this determination, taxpayers should consider the following factors:

  • Does the time and effort put into the activity indicate an intention to make a profit?
  • Does the taxpayer depend on income from the activity?
  • If there are losses, are they due to circumstances beyond the taxpayer’s control or did they occur in the start-up phase of the business?
  • Has the taxpayer changed methods of operation to improve profitability?
  • Does the taxpayer or his/her advisors have the knowledge needed to carry on the activity as a successful business?
  • Has the taxpayer made a profit in similar activities in the past?
  • Does the activity make a profit in some years?
  • Can the taxpayer expect to make a profit in the future from the appreciation of assets used in the activity?

In my case:
  • Yes
  • No, but I would like it to be Smiley
  • Possibly
  • Possibly
  • Yes
  • No
  • Yes
  • Yes if the value of BTC goes up, less the deductions for depreciating mining equipment if any


The IRS presumes that an activity is carried on for profit if it makes a profit during at least three of the last five tax years, including the current year — at least two of the last seven years for activities that consist primarily of breeding, showing, training or racing horses.
1086  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: FinCEN Issues New Clarification on BitCoin [June 13, 2013] on: June 21, 2013, 11:55:17 PM
I.E. if i am doing this as not my primary income will i have to become licenced?

btceic, are you referring to my statement in my other thread that miners need only register if they are a business?  That isn't a question of whether your mining operations are your primary source of income.  It's whether they are a business; i.e. engaged in for profit.

Yes,
So to sum things up as far as your interpretation of the current guidelines is; anybody in the us that mines will be required to be licenced?
1087  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Can't send Private Messages on: June 21, 2013, 11:20:05 PM
Hi I registered on this forum today, and i can't send private messages, how long must I wait or what can i do to be able to PM other members here?

This means your account is hacked!
































/jk,
read the newbie thread, all of your questions will be answered
1088  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: FinCEN Issues New Clarification on BitCoin [June 13, 2013] on: June 21, 2013, 10:04:18 PM
I was there when she gave the speech.  Someone needs to get a transcript of the Q&A because in that she pretty explicitly said miners of bitcoins and creators of virtual currencies need to follow the FinCEN three Rs (registering, reporting and record keeping).

So on this same thinking will precious metal miners also have to follow the three r's?

Does the previous statement of "as a business" still hold?

I.E. if i am doing this as not my primary income will i have to become licenced?

1089  Economy / Auctions / Re: *Dutch(reverse) auction* 1 x None functional USB erupter :) on: June 21, 2013, 02:42:24 PM
pics?
1090  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Litecoin on Mtgox finally..? on: June 21, 2013, 02:02:21 PM
sounds like it, plus good news all around
1091  Economy / Goods / Re: [WTS] Casascius Aluminium Coins - 10 coins for 0.04 BTC [IN HAND] (UK/EU/WW) on: June 21, 2013, 01:52:53 PM
adding 2 more lots to my order
1092  Economy / Speculation / Re: I believe panic selling on Mt. Gox will ensue within 2 weeks on: June 21, 2013, 10:21:42 AM
I still have $0.52859 in my account, any way to get that out?

Can't buy less then .01 BTC, and im sure a bank transfer would cost more than what it's worth, any ideas?

And yes i am serious, its only $0.52859 but it's my $0.52859
1093  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 21, 2013, 01:23:58 AM
bitcoin up, everything else down?

is this it? the great credit contraction?

I feel something big happening...

A hyperdeflation event (in dollar prices), and hyper inflation everywhere else, all fiat except dollar failing, is certainly conceivable. But we don't know what Ben can do, whe can not read his mind or see his tarot cards, so hyperinflation is also possible.

we dont need to read his mind, the fomc meeting concluded today and well... look at the markets reaction, most major indeces down 2+% today
1094  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 21, 2013, 01:10:36 AM
relevant,
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100641133

Quote
Many gold producers will struggle to stay afloat if the gold price slumps below $1,200 analysts have told CNBC, potentially putting the gold mining industry at severe risk beyond 2017, according to Goldman Sachs predictions.

This is the same signal I use to buy bitcoins and gold, silver, copper (zinc and nickel also) ... when price get near, at or below cost of production monetary goods are a steal Smiley .... dyodd.

how far below $1200 in your estimation is a steal?
1095  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 21, 2013, 12:59:30 AM
relevant,
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100641133

Quote
Many gold producers will struggle to stay afloat if the gold price slumps below $1,200 analysts have told CNBC, potentially putting the gold mining industry at severe risk beyond 2017, according to Goldman Sachs predictions.
1096  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Off-Topic on: June 21, 2013, 12:29:18 AM

As soon as you add an item to your cart, the system will create a new orderid for you.

There is nothing nefarious or dubious about this practice, and is quite common in the industry.

Not according to Woocommerce documentation. The order-ID is created when the checkout process is complete.

But I agree nothing nefarious.


I wasn't implying that anything was up with that invoicing process, other that to point out that if  ex: 1000 invoice numbers were created and 200 were cancelled due to ordering issues than there my be only 800 actual orders placed when all the cancelled orders are purged. Im saying this for the ones who trying to figure out where they may stand in the order que and batch of chips based ont their invoice number.. I by all means am giving terrahash the benefit of the doubt in what they say they can deliver on, we'll see, time will tell

Correct, and I am suggesting that there may be allot less then this.

At 9:30am i added 2 items to my cart, due to me forgetting my paypal password, i had to wait until i got homr from the office to commit my orders. When i signed in at home at least 6 hours later i didnt realise that i had an outstanding order in my account and went and purchased just 1. when i was redirected to my account after paying for the 1, i saw that i had the other 2 in my account unpaid for (from my previous attempt on my iphone at the office), i said fuck it and paid for those as well.

my order numbers are only about 500 apart
1097  Other / Politics & Society / Re: "Dollar headed for 'multi-year rally' " on: June 21, 2013, 12:08:34 AM
Just American hype to prop up their falling dollar.

Check the amount of US bonds the Chinese hold and how they are ready to switch the entire world oil economy from petro/US to petro/gold and therby remove the US$ as the worlds reserve currency.

This move will bring about the economic downfall of the US and hurt the west but above all it will mean the US no longer has a defacto income from dumping bonds / cash onto the world market.

petro/gold?

Not sure about this, gold breached $1300 today, down from $1800.

If the worlds economy is going to be based in part upon gold then the selloff? It's getting dumped enmass
1098  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Off-Topic on: June 20, 2013, 11:36:40 PM
Maybe, or they might of been testing the Order system before they unleashed us upon it.  Shocked

Here is someting else as well. In my order attempts I had 10 invoice # issued starting with 502. Due to the lag or other issues with paypal, I had to start from scratch, a new order, and attempt to pay with paypal again and again until finally it went thru. So, in the end I had 2 actual invoice numbers that were paid and the other 7 invoice numbers were cancelled by me in all the previous order attempts. my highest order was 797, so minus 7 from that, I could have been 791. My thought is, how many other invoice numbers were issued by others attempting to order again and hence, cancelled the earlier attempts as I did. It has been said that many had issues getting paypal to go thru. ok, just food for thought in here Smiley

As soon as you add an item to your cart, the system will create a new orderid for you.

There is nothing nefarious or dubious about this practice, and is quite common in the industry.
1099  Other / Off-topic / Emerging Markets Crack as $3.9 Trillion Funds Unwind on: June 20, 2013, 11:30:44 PM
Quote
Investors are pulling money from emerging markets at the fastest pace in two years as slowing economic growth and the prospect of less global stimulus sink stocks, bonds and currencies from India to Brazil.

More than $19 billion left funds investing in developing-nation assets in the three weeks to June 12, the most since 2011, according to EPFR Global. Foreign investors dumped an unprecedented $5.6 billion of Brazilian stocks and $3.2 billion of Indian bonds this month, exchange data show. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s emerging-currency index is down 1.4 percent this quarter, while the rupee and Turkish lira hit record lows and the real reached its weakest level since 2009.

“These are pre-quake tremors: something big is coming,” Stephen Jen, the co-founder of hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners LLP, said in a phone interview from London on June 12. “There’s tremendous deceleration in emerging markets. You may see crisis-like price actions without having a crisis.”

The reversal of the $3.9 trillion of cash that flowed into emerging markets the past four years has been compounded by popular protests in Turkey and Brazil challenging government policies on everything from fighting inflation to developing infrastructure. China, the largest developing economy, is forecast by the World Bank to expand at the slowest pace since 1999 this year, while current-account deficits in Indonesia, Brazil and Chile have grown to the widest in a decade.
Cheap Money

Speculation that the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will end the flood of cheap money is contributing to the pullout. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday that policy makers may “moderate” their pace of bond purchases later this year, reducing money being pumped into the U.S. economy, some of which has found its way to other countries.

India’s rupee weakened as much as 2.2 percent against the dollar today to a record 59.98, and was at 59.575 as of 7:47 a.m. in New York. Raghuram Rajan, the chief economic advisor to India’s finance ministry, said in New Delhi today that the Asian nation will take “appropriate” steps to contain the rupee’s volatility.

Malaysia’s ringgit depreciated 1.7 percent, the biggest drop since November 2011. The Russian ruble declined 1.9 percent to an 11-month low and South Africa’s rand fell 2.9 percent, approaching the weakest level in four years. Poland’s zloty sank as much as 2 percent versus the euro to the lowest in a year.

MSCI Inc.’s Emerging Markets stock index is down 13 percent this year, compared with a 14 percent advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The developing-nation measure is trailing the U.S. benchmark by the most since 1998.
Leading Declines

Brazil’s IBovespa (IBOV) led declines among 21 developing-nation stock indexes tracked by Bloomberg, with a 21 percent drop this year. Peru’s Lima General Index fell 20 percent and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index sank 19 percent. The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PCOMP) posted the biggest gain at 8.9 percent.

OGX Petroleo & Gas Participacoes SA, the Brazilian explorer controlled by billionaire Eike Batista, slipped 82 percent this year, the steepest drop in the MSCI Emerging Markets gauge. Sao Paulo-based utility Eletropaulo Metropolitana SA retreated 61 percent and China Foods Ltd., a Hong Kong beverage maker, dropped 58 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Local-currency government bonds in emerging countries have slumped 4.8 percent since Dec. 31, data compiled by JPMorgan show. Commodities, as measured by the S&P GSCI Index (SPGSCI), dropped 3.3 percent in the same period as demand from China waned.
‘Substantial Inflows’

After years of “substantial inflows,” emerging markets are “vulnerable” to “global portfolio relocations,” Deutsche Bank AG analysts led by Marc Balston in London wrote in a client note on June 13.

ECB President Mario Draghi said June 6 that the central bank sees no reason for “immediate action” on asset purchases or further cuts to its 0.5 percent main interest rate.

Speculation that developed-world interest rates have bottomed out is reducing appetite for the carry trade, where investors borrow cheaply in one country to invest in higher-yielding currencies, often in emerging markets.

The rand in South Africa, where the benchmark rate is 5 percent, is down 21 percent this year against the dollar, the biggest decline among emerging currencies, and lost 14 percent since May 1 alone, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The Brazilian real retreated 11 percent since the start of last month, while the rupee sank 11 percent.

Deutsche Bank, the biggest currency trader, recommends selling Asian currencies, including the yuan, rupiah and ringgit. China’s yuan has lost 0.1 percent since reaching a record high of 6.1203 per dollar last month.
Underweight Call

JPMorgan advised its clients last week to stay underweight all emerging-market assets, citing capital outflows and a “negative momentum” in expectations for growth.

“Developed-market investors have been heavily favoring emerging-market bonds and equities in recent years” because their economies were expanding rapidly and their assets were “systematically cheap,” JPMorgan strategists led by Jan Loeys in New York wrote in a June 14 note. “They are now starting to wonder whether this is still the case, and are slowly moving to neutral on emerging markets.”

The World Bank lowered its forecast this month for China’s growth in 2013 to 7.7 percent, which would be the slowest since 1999, from an 8.4 percent estimate in January. The Washington-based institution cut its forecast for developing-nation growth this year to 5.1 percent, from 5.5 percent. That’s still more than quadruple the 1.2 percent forecast for advanced economies.
Bigger Gain

Even with the recent declines, the MSCI emerging-market stock index has advanced 222 percent since the end of 2002, compared with an 85 percent increase in the S&P.

JPMorgan’s currency gauge has returned 103 percent in the same period, and emerging currencies make up three of the five top performers in the global exchange market. The real is up 59 percent since the end of 2002.

Viktor Szabo, who helps oversee $12 billion in emerging-market assets at Aberdeen Investment Management Ltd., said the selloff has made some emerging-market currencies attractive. The real is worth buying because bond yields have risen to a level that compensates for the risk, he said.
Yields Jump

The average yield on emerging-market government bonds jumped to 6.25 percent on June 11, the highest in a year, before falling to 6.19 percent, JPMorgan indexes show. Brazil’s benchmark 10-year note yield rose to 11.5 percent, from 9.2 percent at the start of the year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“We’ll see continued appreciation of emerging-market currencies” should volatility decrease, Szabo said in a June 14 phone interview from London. “Looking ahead, we’re still positive on China, the U.S. and Japan. We don’t expect a further drag on emerging markets.”

Anti-government protests, sparked by anger over a planned development in Istanbul, spread nationwide in Turkey on May 31, marking the most serious unrest during Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decade in power. At least four people have died in clashes between demonstrators and police, and thousands have been injured.

In Brazil, protests erupted over an increase in bus fares and have spread across the country in the biggest demonstrations in the South American country in two decades.

The real fell to as low as 2.2354 per dollar today, its weakest level since April 2009, while the Turkish lira slipped to a record 1.9315.
Outstripping Crisis

In the four years through 2012, investors poured $3.9 trillion into emerging markets, outstripping the $3.1 trillion they added in the same period leading up to the global financial crisis, said SLJ Macro’s Jen, citing data from Institute for International Finance Inc.

In another sign international investor appetite is waning, South Korea raised less than a 10th of the amount planned in an auction of inflation-linked bonds today. The Finance Ministry sold 55.6 billion won ($49 million) of 10-year linkers, having offered 600 billion won, according to its website.

Losses in emerging-market currencies in coming months may approach the declines of 2008 when the real and lira slid more than 23 percent, according to Jen, a former International Monetary Fund economist who first warned about developing nations as early as January 2011.
‘Dangerous’ Times

“This is a dangerous period,” Jen said. “The Fed will start to normalize rates. It’s a gradual process, but the pressure will only point in one direction, which is in favor of the dollar and against emerging markets.”

The $14 billion Pimco Emerging Local Bond Fund (PELBX), the largest developing-country debt fund, lost $69 million in May in its second monthly outflow since 2009, according to Morningstar Inc. (MORN) data. Mark Porterfield, a spokesman for Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co. LLC, declined to comment.

The selloff will probably “constitute only a small part of a bigger trend for emerging assets” as countries fueled by cheap credit are “wrong-footed” in an environment of rising interest rates, Goldman Sachs strategists led by London-based Thomas Stolper wrote in a June 14 note. The lira, real, rand, Thai baht and Philippine peso are the most vulnerable, the analysts wrote.
Budget Gaps

Imports fueled by cheap borrowing increased the current-account deficits of Chile, Brazil and Indonesia to the highest in at least a decade, leaving the countries susceptible to capital flight, data compiled by Bloomberg show. South Africa needs to attract $63 billion of foreign capital every month to sustain its consumption.

International investors have less incentive to provide that cash while rates at home are rising. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury (USGG10YR) note jumped to 2.47 percent, the highest since August 2011.

The declines in emerging-market assets may accelerate outflows and create a vicious cycle, according to Phillip Blackwood, who oversees $3.7 billion of developing-nation debt as managing partner at EM Quest Capital LLP in London.

“This is the beginning of the end of the easy money,” said Blackwood, who’s betting on a retreat in the lira and Colombian peso. “The positive situation they were in before is now reversing. That’s a perfect storm for further drops.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-20/emerging-markets-crack-as-3-9-trillion-funds-unwind-currencies.html
1100  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: intro and advice needed on: June 20, 2013, 11:08:21 PM
You might want to consider coinbase, very professional, takes a couple of days for the ACH to come through but all in all I am very happy with them so far.
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