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10801  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: November 18, 2021, 09:08:23 AM
Roma needs a player like Lukaku and Karin benzema, if they had these two players they would be a team that would score a lot of goals, in defense they can improve even with these current players, because from what I see when they strive they can have good results in defense,  they concede a lot of goals when playing against small teams and concede few goals when playing against big teams

Roma played against Napoli and didn't concede a goal

Roma played against juventus and conceded only 1 goal

But Roma played against Venezia and conceded 3 goals

I have doubts that they can win Genoa

I think any club needs such players  Cheesy
As for your observations, it rather suggests that playing against the "big" clubs Roma focuses on defense and, first of all, tries to play a draw, and in matches with the underdogs it tries to play according to the principle "we will score more than they can score to us." Probably with this in mind, the bet on the fact that both teams will score with odds of 1.61 looks like easy money (and I think that Roma will win this match).
10802  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: A positive evaluation of gambling. on: November 18, 2021, 08:59:12 AM
By the way, I remembered the story of one successful bettor - Bob Voulgaris. Gambling had an obvious positive impact on his life: at first, he developed his own system for analyzing odds and finding inaccuracies (he specialized in the NBA) was able to win millions. After the world of big data (and apparently neural networks) came, he could no longer win as before, but he was hired to one of the NBA teams as an analyst.
10803  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Nebraska, Gambling might be too expensive for casinos on: November 17, 2021, 07:14:48 PM
I try to study and see one source related to license fees and gambling taxes.
As said below.

https://gaming.nv.gov/index.aspx?page=94
Quote
SPECIAL NOTICE

In addition to State administered gaming license fees and taxes, various other license fees and taxes may be required by the Federal Government and local governmental units throughout Nevada. Applicants for gaming licenses and existing gaming licensees should contact these other governmental units for information regarding the license fees and tax rates administered by them. Inquiries concerning reporting requirements should be directed to the Tax & License Division of the Nevada Gaming Control Board.

In the quote above, I conclude that the licensing fee for each type of gambling and the structure of the gambling site, the fee depends on the rules of the particular country in implementing it, different countries have different gambling license fees, there are the cheapest and up to the highest as you said, but it all depends on how many years they take, for example: 1-20 years, just multiply the year.

As you said, probably among the casinos operating in Nebraska the most expensive licensing fees, I've also seen online casinos in the United States, not the middle part, the other part that caters to the casino, the license fee is around $30,000/5 year or $70,000/7 year, which is cheaply the license renewal fee is around $2800/year.

Conclusion: the license fee in Nebraska if it's $1 million, in 20 years, that means/year the casinos there have to pay a license fee of around $50,000/year, not much different from other casinos in other parts of America.

Yes, if you look over the years, the fees are really not much different from other places. But the difference between paying 50k every year and paying a one-time 1 million is quite large. In general, on the one hand, it can be good - this million will be used as a reserve fund and players will be protected from surprises. But on the other hand, such a large down payment contributes to the monopolization of the market as it drives out small players.
10804  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽UEFA Europa League Discussion Thread on: November 17, 2021, 06:56:59 PM
Galatasaray is unexpectedly doing very well in this tournament. Despite having very strong opponents, they won their matches by scoring a single goal and not conceding a goal. It is very likely that they will finish first in this group, I wonder what they will do in the next round. How far can they go? They have won this trophy before. Doing well here makes them go bad in the league though. The manager couldn't find a solution to this, so I guess they have to choose, it's either Turkish league or Europa League. I think it would be more effective to go as far as possible in Europe.

I think it's too early to talk about the prospects in the europa league, since now even the list of participants in the 1/8 finals is not clear. Very strong teams from the Champions League (for example, Milan) can get there, and in this case Galatasaray will definitely not be the favorite of the tournament. I think about the chances we can talk about after the play-offs (which will take place before the 1/8 finals). In general, the format of the tournament certainly does not allow us to consider it serious.
10805  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: A positive evaluation of gambling. on: November 17, 2021, 06:47:25 PM
Best not to look for positive instead find the negatives so you will not get deep into it the more you seek for goodness of gambling is the more you get deeper in playing in which will makes you become loser.
Gambling is not a place where you can just enjoy and win , we are either to Enjoy or accept being loser.

You may be surprised, but a lot of people do this: they lose and have fun. Therefore, there is nothing wrong with delving into this topic. The fact that entertainment requires money is normal, but for some reason, only in the case of gambling is it called some kind of monstrous problem. While travel enthusiasts, collectors, etc. spend no less money on their hobbies.
10806  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Boxing Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: November 17, 2021, 06:41:19 PM
I have no problem with creating a thread like this, but for me, I want a dedicated discussion on a particular boxing match so we can dwell on the strength and weaknesses of each fighter and give hints or tips for those who like to bet on that particular fight, the flow of discussion will always be on-topic about one particular match.

Totally agree with you. The creation of separate threads for each fight is inevitable - during the time it takes to announce, prepare and then carry out a fight in football, it has time to go through a whole rally of the national championship. This is a huge distance. If we discuss all the fights in one thread, then it will be an unreadable mess.
10807  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Corruption In Gambling?? News and real stats (uk) on: November 17, 2021, 06:33:55 PM
As I understood from the article, all this money freebie was legal. We perfectly understand its meaning and this is obvious lobbying, and it looks very muddy, although from the point of view of the law everything is Ok.
I really did not like the other information from the article - as I understood, a reform will soon be carried out in the UK that will hit hard the gambling business, which is why the lobbyists of the companies have become so much more active.
In general, all that I understood from the article is that companies are forced (once again) to defend themselves against the fucking initiatives of officials.
10808  Other / Archival / Re: Трейдим на 1\20 депо on: November 17, 2021, 04:53:14 PM



 Grin Grin Grin



По инвестированию хотел бы узнать мнения вот по какому моменту: если бросать работу/трейдинг или что там еще в пользу инвестирования то целевые уровни доходности должны быть адекватны (в процентах) - вряд ли вы сможете стабильно обгонять топов рынка на дистанции (а они имеют весьма скромную доходность если брать большие временные интервалы). И в то же время сумма инвестиций должна быть весьма значительна. Грубо говоря пусть вы гений инвестиций и можете стабильно получать 100%  в год, но инвестируя 10к долларов фактически вы не будете получать ничего так как прибыль будет проедаться. Если целевые уровни доходности взять реалистичными (20-30% в год), и ставить цель выше чем просто проедать прибыль, то необходимая сумма инвестиций растет на порядок, а то и полтора.
Соответственно есть ли вообще смысл уходить из мест (будь то трейдинг, бизнес или еще что) с большим потенциалом роста и большей оборачиваемостью средств до того как сколотили действительно большой инвестиционный капитал?
Есть аргумент что в венчурном инвестировании иксы совсем другие, но там и риск совсем другой и в любом случае проект реализуется (даже если в IT) не за месяц и даже не за полгода.
10809  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: F1 Formula Sports Racing - Sportsbet.io promotions & discussion thread on: November 17, 2021, 04:25:08 PM
Look: there are 14 points between Hamilton and Verstappen. There are 3 races left, one failure for Hamilton (0 points) will mean the loss of the championship. If Hamilton wins two races, and Verstappen is second, then they will only be equal on points. If Verstappen wins even one race, then, on average, he will be out of reach for Hamilton. The handicap is too great. At the same time, the odds are almost the same 1.87 for Verstappen and 1.92 for Hamilton.

Pretty well pointed out, however it should be mentioned that if Verstappen has a failure (0) points, Hamilton simply gets the lead and will most probably not lose it.
It should be a nice "battle": Verstappen has the points, Hamilton has the car. I can only hope it will be a fair fight - from both sides.

I don't think these are equivalent comparisons. If Verstappen crashes and Hemilton takes first place, he will be just 11 points ahead of Verstappen. This is an easy attack range for the remaining two races. In a situation where Hemilton gets 0 points, then this is an actual disaster, since the number of points being played is already very small (50 + -) and the gap increases dramatically. So I don't understand why the odds are actually the same.
10810  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: November 17, 2021, 04:14:44 PM
Napoli are in very good form this season and I am not siding with Napoli but indeed they are playing very well especially in defense which is Inter's job to penetrate the Napoli defense.
indeed if you look at the previous match, Inter are better than Napoli and will be the favorite team and are required to win against Napoli to be able to maintain their Scudeto.
It will be a very interesting game which I don't want to miss because I see Napoli are better at the moment than Inter even though I feel Inter will win. Cheesy

In the match with Milan, Inter was also the favorite (if I remember correctly), but managed to take only one point. Therefore, there are no guarantees that his success will be better in the match against Napoli. Perhaps Napoli will win at all - personally, I think this outcome is no less likely than Inter's victory. Large of the bettors put their bets on the "name" and not on the team given its real strength, and the bookmakers take this into account, perhaps that is why, according to the odds, we see that Inter is the favorite.
10811  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [BOXING] Logan Paul vs Mike Tyson on: November 17, 2021, 04:06:28 PM
As of today, there are 6 people who vote for Logan Paul. Like really? I wonder for those who voted for him if it's true or they're tripping. If it's true what's their opinion or analysis.

Because IMO, this match will likely end in-favor for Mike Tyson not because he's still a tough fighter but because this match is to commemorate Mike Tyson for being the Legend like Muhammad Ali. Logan Paul should stop accepting exhibition fight tho, if he's willing to be a boxer then he should take the path like his younger brother did.

I just added a 7th voice  Grin
As for the analysis of real odds, as it was already written in this thread, bookmakers give Tyson odds of 1.67 and 2.3 for Paul. These chances for Paul are much more optimistic than the vote, where he has only 12%. Perhaps the bookmakers are wrong, but I don't think they are much wrong.
10812  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers on: November 17, 2021, 03:55:04 PM
It seems that Montenegro has its own opinion regarding the order of teams in this group  Grin
Turkey already conceded a goal in the 4th minute and it looks like it is in a very difficult situation. Now I understand that the draw between Montenegro and the Netherlands was not an accident. But in any case, if Norway loses, it will remain in third place.
Whenever a team scores early, the final result will likely be the opposite Tongue
Turkey made it to the play-offs but could they succeed with a draw containing Italy and Portugal!

I would not say that this is an ironclad rule, but it really works often. I often make such bets when the underdog scores a goal first and the chances of winning the favorite grow, it is really profitable at a distance. But sometimes failures happen - like at Euro 2020, when Germany in the end could not defeat Hungary and the match ended in a draw (I lost that time).
10813  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: November 17, 2021, 03:42:47 PM
Many Bayern Munich fans hope that Lewandowski will stay at Bayern until the end of his career, because after all Bayern Munich fans love Lewandowski so much,and during his time at Bayern Munich, Lewandowski has managed to help Bayern Munich win seven Bundesliga titles, three DFB Pokal titles, and one Champions League title.
@hahay, I agree with what you're saying, because it's better for Lewandowski to stay in the Bundesliga, because we know that the Bundesliga isn't as competitive as other leagues like the English Premier League, and at 33 years old it would be difficult for him to force himself to play in a tough league like the English league.

Lewandowski is currently ranked second in the history of the best scorers in Bavaria. The legendary Müller (not Thomas, but Gerd) is in the first place and Lewandowski is almost 200 goals behind, but taking into account the fact that he scores an average of 45-50 goals per season, he may well have time to come out on top. It would be epic, I think.
10814  Local / Майнеры / Re: Донеси на майнера в РФ on: November 17, 2021, 10:28:36 AM
"По словам представителей комитета, незаконная деятельность фермы «нанесла колоссальный ущерб электрическим сетям Кыргызстана»" Наверно там сельхозпроизводители по льготному тарифу за ЭЭ платят, иначе непонятно в чем колоссальный ущерб? Сомневаюсь что на таких объемах реально ЭЭ воровать. Еще они проверяют законность ввоза в страну оборудования. Мде. Миллионное подтверждение тому, что в папуасиях бизнес вести дело рисковое - вчера всё по закону и ты молодец-инвестор-инноватор, а завтра всё нарушил  Grin
вполне может быть, что ущерб не прямой, деньгами, а перегрузом линий электропередач, например. если там 2.5к асиков стояло с потреблением пусть по 2квт, это выходит 5мвт. если в какой-то глуши - там на мощности такие ничего не рассчитано. этого жора на хороший поселок хватит. да и по деньгам, если даже взять по 2 рубля за киловатт - они кушают четверть ляма в сутки.

Это как бы полностью проблема сетевиков. Если потребитель выбирает свою разрешенную мощность и оплачивает ее (а на таких объемах иное просто невозможно) то это уже проблемы сетевиков что их оборудование не тянет то что они подписались (за огромные кстати деньги) обеспечивать.
В общем смысла гадать нет что там конкретно придумали. На мой взгляд это все риски папуасий и нормальная логика здесь неприменима.
10815  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sportsbooks often offer different odds for the same type of bet on: November 16, 2021, 09:09:35 PM
I wonder if it is really possible to find such anomalies (within the same bookmaker) on the basis of which it is possible to place bets where the player has an advantage?
All the examples I posted show odds for different markets from the same bookmaker. Right now as I am writing this, I am looking at the Luxembourg - Rep. of Ireland football match and the -0.5 AH on Ireland is 1.97. At the same time the full-time market odds for an away win on Ireland is 2.06. As you can see, that's quite a difference.

This is a small difference, if converted to percentages, it would be about 2.2%. Usually the bookmaker's margin is 4-6%, so even if we found a way to improve the odds by 2.2 percent, we are still losing to the bookmaker. I think a significant difference will be at least 5 percent, but I doubt that such cases (at least if we consider one bookmaker) happen (well, or let's say they happen regularly).
10816  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French presidential election betting on: November 16, 2021, 08:44:41 PM
Is it too early to bet on this event? I would not do it now, even if I found an offer with good odds - freezing my money for 5 months is a very dubious idea. Plus, over these 5 months, a lot can change and it turns out that those good odds were not good at all. The situation and the mood of the public is changing quickly now, who knows how much people will go berserk from lockdowns/coronavirus and what this can lead to.
10817  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: November 16, 2021, 08:36:32 PM
My Weekend Bundesliga Predictions

Its filled with exciting fixtures..

Augsburg Vs Bayern Munich 1-2
Arminia Bielefeld Vs Wolfsburg 1-3
Bayer Leverkusen Vs Bochum 2-0
Borrusian Dortmund Vs sturtgart  3-2
Mochengladbach Vs Greuther furth  2-1
Hoffenheim Vs Leipzig  2-2
Union Berlin Vs Hertha Berlin 1-1
Freiburg Vs Frankfurt  2-3
Mainz Vs cologne  2-1.

What do you think guys? You may want to go for 1x2 if you are not sure of the correct scores predictions


I think that, firstly, you underestimate Bayern and both Borussias, and secondly, you should keep statistics on the accuracy of your predictions. I often see them in different threads, but I'm lazy enough to check them back later, although I would love to take a look at your success at a good distance.
10818  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread -- Group Stage! on: November 16, 2021, 08:26:02 PM
Chelsea - Juventus game is going to be really important for both of these teams. If Juventus manage to draw with Chelsea at least, it will be enough for Juventus to guarantee their leadership and they will promote as the leader. Because they defeated Chelsea by 1-0 before. Consequently, Chelsea have no other choice than winning this game. And in Stamford Bridge, I believe that they are in a very advantageous position. We know how tough Juventus are when it comes to their defense. But I still expect Chelsea to have the control of the game through the whole game and defeat their opponent to be able to take the lead.

actually, it's not so important for both clubs because they guaranteed the places in the next stage. there is only question which team will take the 1st spot and who will take the 2nd.

If you know the rules of the draw after the group stage, then you know that it is better to take first place than second  Wink
It is clear that in most groups it was initially clear which two teams would reach the playoff stage and the distribution of the first two places was somewhat random. But in my opinion, the chances of bumping into a clear top team among the first places compared to the chances of meeting them in second place are distributed as 75 to 25 percent.
10819  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers on: November 16, 2021, 07:56:35 PM
Group G games are the best to follow for today with Turkey facing Montenegro and Netherlands playing vs Norway which is even a better one.
Odds are in favour of Turkey @1.89 vs @3.9 for Montenegro and Netherlands @1.48 vs @6.8 for Norway. According to bookies, Netherlands first and Turkey second?

It seems that Montenegro has its own opinion regarding the order of teams in this group  Grin
Turkey already conceded a goal in the 4th minute and it looks like it is in a very difficult situation. Now I understand that the draw between Montenegro and the Netherlands was not an accident. But in any case, if Norway loses, it will remain in third place.
10820  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: November 16, 2021, 02:23:56 PM
Honestly the odds are not giving Lille enough credit. I get that it is a home game for monaco and that is understandable, however the reality is that Lille is the winner of last year's league. I get that they are not as good as last year, but you do not give last year's champions 3.50 in a game like this. Sure it is still close enough that if Lille wins it would be expected, but that doesn't mean that it makes sense to give them such low chance.

I would say something like 2.40 to 2.60 would be better, you could still give monaco the edge because of home advantage but at least you would be doing Lille a justice as well. This isn't about me thinking Lille will win, I know that Monaco has the better chance, and I know that most likely outcome would be Monaco winning this game, I am not disputing that fact, all I am saying is that it will be closer than what those odds suggest.

You may be right (I don't follow these commands closely to argue the odds to this degree of accuracy). In this case, it is reasonable to make a relatively “safe” bet on the fact that both teams will score with 1.77 odds. I think if you take the distance, then the return from such a bet will be more even than if you bet on Lille (even if it is underestimated and it is profitable to bet on it at a distance).
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