What's puzzling me is the payout for the SatoshiDice bets. A 0% house edge would pay out 65536/8000 = 8.192x. And so a 3% house edge should pay out 3% less than that, or 7.94624x. So why does the SD website say it pays out 7.910x? 7.910 * 8000/65536 is 0.965576171875, ie. a house edge of 3.44%. Here's an example of a recent 1 BTC bet winning at "lessthan 8000". The 1 BTC bet was paid out 7.90977999 BTC, which would have been 7.91027999 before the 0.0005 BTC transaction fee was removed. This one is a losing 1 BTC bet. The player was returned 0.0045 BTC (0.005 BTC including the fee), or 0.5%. So the expected return from a 1 BTC bet is: 7.91027999 * 8000/65536 + 0.005 * (65536-8000)/65536 which is very close to 0.97 BTC. So the house edge is 3.0% if you include the amount which is returned when you lose! I was thinking the house edge wasn't including the returned amount, because the site used to say something like "house edge 1%" and "when you lose we return half the house edge to you". But that's changed now. |
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so today i was completely wiped out by the dice. i was playing the "1/8 bet" address:
lessthan 8000 1dice6YgEVBf88erBFra9BHf6ZMoyvG88 12.2070% 7.910x 3.000% 97.000% 0.0010 25.0000
after 75 consecutive losses i was wiped out, because i was placing relatively large bets. i have decided not to play this game any more.
i must be very unlucky or because if i'm not mistaken, the probability of getting 75 consecutive losses on a 12.20% dice are 1/(7/8)^75 . so basically this occurs once in every 22,356 turns, assuming a house edge of 0%. if the house has an edge of 3%, the occurrence is slightly more frequent 1/(0.87875^75) = once every 16,221 turns... still, i must be one unlucky bastard...
The house edge is determined by the payout when you win. The chance of winning is always the same - it picks a number between 0 and 65535 and you win if the number is less than 8000. Your calculation is off a little because 1 - 8000/65536 isn't 7/8, it's a little more than that. I make it a one-in-17399 chance of losing all 75 bets, so still really unlucky. But then again 1-in-17k shots do happen. About once every 17k bets. And there have been over 600k bets. >>> 1 / ((1 - 8000/65536.0) ** 75)
17398.822919111808Here's the same for losing a 50/50 (less than 32768) bet 3 times in a row to sanity-check the calculation: >>> 1 / ((1 - 32768/65536.0) ** 3)
8.0and as you would expect, that's a 1-in-8 chance. What's puzzling me is the payout for the SatoshiDice bets. A 0% house edge would pay out 65536/8000 = 8.192x. And so a 3% house edge should pay out 3% less than that, or 7.94624x. So why does the SD website say it pays out 7.910x? 7.910 * 8000/65536 is 0.965576171875, ie. a house edge of 3.44%. Not that it makes any difference to you, since you only get the payout if you win a bet... |
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Seems OK from here. Maybe they fixed it. I was just looking at the odds on the main page:  It looks to me like the stated house edge is incorrect. For example, on the 'under 32768' bet, if the house edge is 3% then you should get 1.94x when you win, but the main page says you only get 1.935x. That represents a house edge of 3.25%: >>> under = 32768 >>> he = 3.0 >>> 65536 * (1 - he/100) / under 1.94 >>> 100 * (1 - (1.935 * under / 65536)) 3.25 Similarly for the 'under 1000' bet, for a house edge of 3% you should get 63.57x but you only get 63.247x, for a house edge of 3.49%: >>> under = 1000 >>> 65536 * (1 - he/100) / under 63.57 >>> 100 * (1 - (63.247 * under / 65536)) 3.49273681640625 The same happens for every bet I've looked at so far. The quoted reward for winning is less than the stated house edge would call for. Is there something wrong with my maths here? Or what's up? Is SatoshiDice really taking a house edge of more than they claim? |
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Fair enough. 10 bitcents on the way. 238 would have been a bit closer, so the next person who calculated that may also collect 0.1 BTC. SimBesh? Wallet address? Just for fun.  The thing is that after 238 weeks you didn't yet earn 10 million BTC, and after 239 weeks you did. Since interest is paid weekly he rounded up to the next week. |
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Oh, of course. I should have looked at those transactions in more detail. Thanks for addressing my post. |
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Each player picks a digit 0 through 9 when they buy their ticket. Publish each player's number alongside their entry.
Doesn't sound like it would be too hard to implement, also when a player buys a ticket that number is locked in, I can't pick that number. If someone has ticket #5 I can't also buy ticket #5. Note that the digit they pick can be different than the ticket number. "I'm buying ticket #5 and my 'lucky digit' is 8. The idea is that you as site operator don't know which 'lucky digit' each player is going to pick, so you can't predict in advance which ticket will win. The result depends on the individual choice made by every player. The problem is that the last player decides who wins - and if he also knows the 64 digit secret he can probably chose a 'lucky digit' such that he himself wins. |
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Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount). It takes 205 weeks, or slightly less than 4 years: >>> math.log(1e6, 1.07) 204.19430286596887 >>> float(205) / 52 3.9423076923076925 wut? 1 * (1.07^238) = 9 847 797.03 1 * (1.07^239) = 10 537 142.8 Duh. Fair enough. >>> math.log(10e6, 1.07) 238.22668667696368 weeks >>> float(239) / 52 4.596153846153846 years |
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Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount). It takes 205 weeks, or slightly less than 4 years: >>> math.log(1e6, 1.07) 204.19430286596887 >>> float(205) / 52 3.9423076923076925 |
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thanks dooglus! yep i'm illpoet on seals. i keep the same username not so much bc i like it, but that way i nver forget it when i'm logging in. seals is practically giving away bitcoins right now with all the bonus tournaments and freerolls! and i'm a total fish!
It looks like I need a new place to play poker. I'll see you there... |
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omg pet is real! i miss her plse tell her i said hi! i was thinking of checking out strike sapphire bc i like to play poker and gamble and such but the owner is obviously a real tool. He actually posted a clients deposit history somewhere in the back of those threads. I mean wtf is that? if you start offering freerolls and promotions on a casino site and expect that they aren't going to be exploited then you were born yesterday, and without internet access. Seriously, if of all the scammers and exploiters in the btc world you pick out dooglus and pet, who are seriously decent ppl, you are gonna get eaten alive.
I'll tell her you said hi. Josh is OK most of the time, but occasionally he flips out like this. I've heard it suggested that his weird behaviour may be alcohol related, but that's really no excuse. Thanks for the support. Now I'll fuck off out of this thread, as requested. |
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Before the round starts, pick a 64 digit number, and publish its sha256 hash.
Each player picks a digit 0 through 9 when they buy their ticket. Publish each player's number alongside their entry.
When all the tickets are sold, put the 10 player digits on the end of your 64 digit number, re-hash it, and use that hash to decide the winner. (For instance, take the first 4 bits of the hash. If they are in the range 0 through 9, you have a winner, else add one to your 64 digit number and repeat).
Publish the 64 digit number and the 10 player digits. Then each player can verify that you didn't cheat.
There's still a slight problem in that you could buy the last ticket. Since you know the other 9 players' digits and the 64 digit number, you can try all ten possibilities for the your own choice of digit and probably find one that makes you win. I don't see a way around that at the moment.
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Okay. You want to see the nuts?
Petrescuerz doesn't exist. I pretend she exists, so I can be nice and I don't have to explicitly say I think you're a liar. But I think you're a liar. And therefore I can't be a dick to her, because she is you. And I can't be a dick to you, because I'm just telling you the truth. And the truth is I think you're a liar. So now that we've let you do this routine for a long time, it's over. You can call me a dick and tell all your :friends: not to play on our site.
I told you it's not about you winning, it's about the the amount of shit you've given me, and this last BS email from your supposed girlfriend is just another example of your ridiculous dual personality shenanigans.
I'm a nice guy. But you think I'm going to humiliate myself by writing an apology letter to your imaginary friend? Piss off.
That is nuts! Do you remember when you asked us to Skype with you, and you talked to both of us? Was that me putting on voices? Or did I have a hooker on 24/7 standby in case you checked up on me? We'll both stop playing, don't worry about that. But know that you're wrong, and incredibly insulting. Maybe you should look into getting someone more stable to do the customer facing stuff. This can't be good for business. |
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This is copy/pasted from an email, hence the weird line-lengths. Hey Josh, Deb here. (aka petrescuerz)
I am asking dooglus to post this for me as I can't post on the forum.
I just want to remind you that many months ago you approached me on
Seals, where I was either playing a freeroll or a small buy in
tournament that I bought into with my freeroll winnings.You invited me
to look at your casino site. I told you at the time that I'd be happy
to check it out, but that I am not a gambler, and don't deposit money
on gambling sites. I was totally up front about my intentions. I enjoy
the games, and with doogies help I learned a bunch about blackjack
strategy. I never expected to win so much on the site, but it was
pretty easy to get there, just playing smartly. I understand that your
intent isn't to fund folks like me, but our deal was that I played on
your site because you wanted more players. I held up my end of the
deal, I played on your site. Just because I found ways to make it
profitable is no reason to behave like a dick toward me. If you had
ever emailed me personally and asked that I stopped playing, or even
asked me at one of the games, I'd have happily talked to you about it,
and if it was really what you wanted I'd have stopped playing. I've
made friends on the site and enjoyed my time playing there. I have not
enjoyed your drama and accusations. I expect that you will find it
difficult to keep a site such as yours going without american players,
if you chase away the few that you have. I'm a pretty reasonable
person, and would have understood if you'd asked me not to play for
the weekend bonus. In fact, when I asked you when the next one would
be you could have told me that though you were planning one soon you'd
rather that I didn't play. That would have been much less offensive
than saying nothing and then being angry and rude when I won. I will
miss seeing my friends there, but I expect I will be able to keep in
touch with some of them apart from your site. If you prefer my friends
don't play there, I will let them know, but they are people who would
actually pay money to gamble, so it's not really in your best interest
to do so. I never intended any harm, and I still don't. I hope that
you find a way to work out your emotional issues and make a success of
this, if that's truly what you want.
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You've found every bonus we ever advertised, on any website, and found ways to use each one twice, sometimes more, while collecting referral fees for your friends and raking in all the prizes and freerolls we have.
I found one on casino-deposit and one in a forum thread. Is that really all of them? I used each of them once only. I didn't know it was possible to use them more than once. I only ever collected two referral fees, and as soon as I did, you upped the wagering requirements from 30x to 150x so I was unable to collect them. People can decide if I'm an asshole, I don't care. Let it be known StrikeSapphire bans people for annoying us to death. Did we ever fail to pay your winnings? No. Is there a law that says I have to keep giving you free shit while dealing with this trolling and 16 emails a week from you at the same time? No. So, take the money and go play somewhere else. What petrescuerz does is her business but we're ready and eager to pay her out.
You've always paid out quickly and reliably. The vast majority of my emails to you have been bug reports. You reward bug reports with "player points" which lead me to believe you wanted them. Like I say, I'll have no problem staying away from your casino. Sorry it ended like this. |
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I was afk while typing this
I can't believe how happy people are to point out a mistake of mine!
Yup.  |
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Since you logged in from the same IP as petrescuerz immediately after I logged her off to check her score, I'm sure you were directing the process.
Yes. I was saying "don't bet on single roulette numbers, it's dumb; you'll probably lose more than $36 before your number comes up". And she was ignoring me. But I don't think you and she were worried about Oceans. Oceans and Warp dropped off the board on Friday and Saturday, respectively. I think you were waiting to see if Eddy was coming back to top $25.
To be honest I had already given up on the tournament. I lost what little balance I had left and was happy to leave it like that. She came to me at around 11:30pm and asked me to recommend a martingale strategy to get up to $25. I recommended she just forget about it, since she couldn't bet very big and she ignored me. I don't know what her reasoning was for timing it like that and she's not currently online to ask. If I had wanted to win I would have made a deposit on my account where I can bet much bigger. This was all her. C'mon. She was already up about $165 on the house, all from freerolls & bonus play.
True. Maybe it wasn't scary for her, I'm probably projecting. I really don't like losing, whether it's money I've won or money I've earned. It just feels bad. I asked her before she started the $1 roulette spins "how much are you prepared to lose at this?" and she said "[$89] - it's not my money anyway". So I guess she sees it the same way as you do. You know, I was just going to be quiet about all this, but you had to have the last word in the forum, right? To celebrate your victory. Me stupid casino owner, falls for your multi-account, endless grinding bullshit, me smile and bow and thank you for winning by being so clever. You know what? I saw you take over Bitzino's thread, too. Leave my fuckin thread alone. Go over there and see how much he can take of your endless bullshit. Lucky for him he isn't giving away bonuses, so you probably won't be interested.
petrescuerz got lucky with a roulette spin. That's all. Nothing clever about it. I guess I was just excited for her and said too much here as a result. I keep forgetting about how you sometimes react and it always catches me by surprise. If you look at what happened on the Bitzino thread, libertaad was very receptive to my suggestions, and thanked me for them. I also "took over" the MyriadCoins thread, and again my suggestions were appreciated and acted upon. In both cases the site owners were polite; neither one called me an asshole or banned me from their site at any point! From now on, I'd prefer that you (plural) don't play. And if petrescuerz cashes out and you guys take your business elsewhere, that would be better for everybody. I don't want you or your friends around anymore.
If you're serious, I can avoid playing at Sapphire. I don't know if petrescuerz has seen any of this yet, so she may play until I tell her about it. I expect she'll be upset by it, but probably not too surprised either. |
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Results: 2012-Jul-09 11:18am (up to block 188313)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 7091 | 0 (0.00000) | 6829 | 262 | 27.53 | 0.01 | 15.91 | 27.51 | 0.070
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 923 | 0 (0.00000) | 854 | 69 | 7.33 | 0.00 | 5.38 | 7.33 | 0.024
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 1451 | 0 (0.00000) | 1421 | 30 | 12.54 | 0.00 | 1.15 | 12.54 | 0.045
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 1218 | 0 (0.00000) | 1180 | 38 | 16.91 | 0.00 | 3.15 | 16.90 | 0.028
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 1397 | 0 (0.00000) | 1369 | 28 | 21.65 | 0.01 | 4.95 | 21.63 | 0.076
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 3175 | 1 (0.00032) | 3163 | 11 | 91.44 | 100.38 | 1.29 | -8.93 | 109.768
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 4552 | 5 (0.00110) | 4530 | 17 | 178.36 | 110.74 | 55.64 | 67.61 | 62.092
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 5997 | 12 (0.00202) | 5938 | 47 | 1217.43 | 1142.23 | 39.25 | 75.19 | 93.824
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 4477 | 21 (0.00470) | 4444 | 12 | 469.49 | 331.94 | 11.11 | 137.54 | 70.703
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 5668 | 33 (0.00583) | 5630 | 5 | 771.73 | 331.04 | 9.35 | 440.68 | 42.896
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 7366 | 101 (0.01372) | 7263 | 2 | 1450.21 | 762.02 | 1.80 | 688.19 | 52.545
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 5813 | 128 (0.02204) | 5679 | 6 | 2323.46 | 2553.31 | 15.00 | -229.84 | 109.892
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 6023 | 187 (0.03106) | 5833 | 3 | 1863.43 | 1748.66 | 9.24 | 114.76 | 93.841
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 6125 | 299 (0.04887) | 5819 | 7 | 4209.01 | 5320.14 | 24.99 | -1111.13 | 126.399
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 6202 | 390 (0.06291) | 5809 | 3 | 1794.16 | 1623.45 | 31.20 | 170.70 | 90.485
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 10808 | 1010 (0.09349) | 9793 | 5 | 6600.32 | 6981.38 | 7.01 | -381.06 | 105.773
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 18189 | 2237 (0.12299) | 15952 | 0 | 3427.64 | 3040.84 | 0.00 | 386.80 | 88.715
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 15279 | 2910 (0.19052) | 12364 | 5 | 6295.85 | 6612.47 | 14.50 | -316.61 | 105.029
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 37571 | 9088 (0.24193) | 28477 | 6 | 10048.75 | 9533.34 | 72.19 | 515.40 | 94.871
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 27484 | 10137 (0.36925) | 17316 | 31 | 12330.85 | 12382.07 | 212.63 | -51.21 | 100.415
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 282295 | 137505 (0.48731) | 144667 | 123 | 84284.83 | 85627.15 | 2173.21 | -1342.32 | 101.593
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 115763 | 57860 (0.50010) | 57836 | 67 | 41394.01 | 40197.30 | 789.19 | 1196.70 | 97.109
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 69458 | 51011 (0.73481) | 18410 | 37 | 40574.40 | 39130.62 | 442.88 | 1443.77 | 96.442
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 5696 | 4598 (0.97457) | 120 | 978 | 4901.48 | 4709.70 | 287.60 | 191.78 | 96.087
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 650021 | 277533 | 370696 | 1792 | 224312.92 | 222238.93 | 4228.71 | 2073.98 | 99.075
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 2073.98498220 BTC (0.925%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 327.08092500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 1746.90405720 BTC (0.779%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 1921310 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1209260 (62.9%)
Blockchain MB: 812.4 : SatoshiDice Tx: 492.9 (60.7%)  |
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There actually is an indicator now of how much you've bet, it's just not in a very obvious place; in the Player History window, where you can see your win/loss for the current or last weekend tournament, it now also shows the amount you've wagered.
That's cool. I hadn't noticed it before. I don't know why you guys like to wait until the last second...
She had been playing on and off all weekend, within her comfort zone. When she saw that it looked like nobody was going to win, she decided it would be worth betting more than she was comfortable with to have a chance of winning for once. I think partly she just wanted to win because she hadn't before and I had - she's quite competitive with me - but it wouldn't have made much sense to take the scary risk earlier if oceans was going to end up $150 up or something. We had a couple strong contenders this weekend who were high on the board at different times (notably warpman, who would have taken the 5BTC prize, and oceans1)
Really? I looked at the leaderboard quite a few times over the weekend and other than eddy with his Scuba Cube win I didn't see anyone overtake petrescuerz at any point. I guess they didn't stay up there for long... We won't do that for the leaderboard wins anymore, and I'll payout and email the winners personally.
It doesn't matter to us now that we both know to ignore the email. I just think it's off-putting for new winners to receive - they think they've just won $50 then they get an email saying they have to bet it 30 times over before they can have it - it kind of takes the edge off... |
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incidentally, if you withdraw 70% each week you get:
weekly withdraw total withdrawn total left in account
--------------- --------------- ---------------------
70.00% 202.26 1086.68
Oh yeah. So you withdraw less, and end up with less principal than if you want until the end of the 4 weeks. Makes sense. I added this to my previous post for easier comparison. |
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^^^agreed, but ultimately since the withdrawal is only once per month, i suggested to just leave the account set to 100% re-invest, and request a withdrawal once per month.
Right. When I first saw the request I thought "surely you can just juggle the percentage and get the same result by withdrawing a slightly different amount each week". Then I saw others saying the same. And finally, after playing with the numbers, found that actually you can't, and so the feature request actually is a reasonable one, despite my first impressions. Doing the withdrawal requests manually each month works too - but is probably more work for both you and him in the long run. |
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