sleepy squirrel?

Ok, I suspected this might happen, you make me pull out numbers

I'm not denying moores law, let's assume something similar is effective for computational power and the computational power doubles every year (it's probably a little less, but I'll go with that). Let's further assume that checking wether a given nonce is a solution requires the same amount of computation as checking wether a given private key unlocks a bitcoin address.

Ther current bitcoin networks' hashing power is 1THash/s, that's 2^40 hashes/s. Let's further assume miners are willing to pause mining for 2 weeks (2^20 seconds) to "look for old coins". This means ⁽under the assumptions) in these 2 weeks we could, with current hashing power, check 2^62 keys in 2 weeks.

Let's assume we have a list of potential addresses with lost (or to-be-stolen) coins of 1 million addresses (2^20). Now keep in mind comparing 2 values takes time, so we have to run through the whole list for every potential key. Let's assume, though, this doesn't cost us any time and we can check a private key simultaneously for the whole list (I might be confusing something about "checking if private key works for address, don't know ecdsa that well, but the thoughts and calculations wills till be valid).

How many years of doubling compute power will it take until we can recover the coins within a 2 week period? 256-62 = 194 years.

So actually, yes, I have to agree with you (if my assumptions hold and calculations are correct), at some point in roughly 200 years it will become feasable to scan the ocean floor for lost coins.

If my assumptions hold and calculations are correct, I'd guess around 150 years from now, our grand*12-children will change the signature algorithm and require "old coins" to be transferred to the new algorithm (there will be a grace period, let's say 25 years). After these 25 years passed we will finally know how many coins were lost and the treasure hunt for ancient coins may begin, a second gold- (or rather bitcoin-) rush.

I have the suspicion that technical analysis works in large part by convention: if a lot of people agree some pattern means this or that, then they will act in unison on its appearance. Since doing the same thing as the other market participants (preferrably earlier than the others, of course) yields gain, it's a good strategy to act upon these conventional signals, however (un-)founded they might be.

This is also why suggestions like "bitcoin likes triangles" make sense: many bitcoiners know about triangle interpretation and use it.

If everyone agreed "the price being at x.xx333 for more than 33 seconds" was a strong buy signal and acted upon it, it actually would be and the price would rise.

So yes, I guess you're right, it's essentially special exactly because "humans have 10 fingers".

it's obviously also rare they check the links they post. Had they done it, they would've noticed that the url changed to silkraod.......onion (link crippled due to forum rules), which is actually made to be memorized .

I'm sorry, I posted the full link to SR previously, but the forum software detected it as a "link to illegal content" and replaced it with message threatening to ban me should I try to circumvent the prevention measure, hehe. Fine with me, people will find SR if they want to. Following the link posted in the forbes piece leads to a page with the new url.

I think you're misinterpreting something here. Some explanations:

• Finding a hash (more correctly "solution nonce") does not allow spending of coins. I think you mean "finding of a private key"?
• finding the private key to an address (necessary to recover lost coins or steal coins from someone) is not the same operation as mining. Neither does it somehow happen as a byproduct of mining
• Even if that was the case, it would be like mining at mind-boggling difficulty... just not feasable.
• it would still be magnitudes more profitable to just simply mine for transaction fees (assuming mining subsidy is zero and all bitcoins mined) than to try to find keys to lost (or not-lost) coins. Even with half a million BTC on a single address. Therefore everyone with hardware on his hands will mine, not search the sea-floor for lost coins.
  

busch microtronic, has a TMS 1600 (4 bit), overclocked to 800 kHz

still trying to find a way to fit sha256 somehow

sorry to pollute the 100th page of the thread with pic

hey, lets do a triple-blind study:

• the participants don't know in what group they are
• the conductors don't know who is in what group
• noone even knows what anyone is actually trying to show

5 will hold, 6 in sight.

bold prediction: we'll break above 5.8 tuesday night (timezone unclear)

cbeast, I'm assuming you're arguing that s3052s' report doesn't contain much substance, right? I'm also assuming your post was meant half-jokingly, so please see mine in the same light.


exactly, that's why your weather-analogy doesn't work so well.


bitcoin does not have a strong seasonal predictability like weather does, and that's why the mid and long term preditctions of s3052s' report actually have substance as opposed to the outlook that spring will come for the northern hemisphere.

That "simple logic" obviously fails: people are buying computers like mad although they can buy twice as many next year with the same amount of money and computers are not "absolutely necessary" to have (for most).
Another way to see it: saving is "spending later", so some poeple that have saved in the past, will spend today.

Also: any amount of a money can support any size economy given that the money is divisible enough.

So people "saving" (which is just spending later) will not harm the economy. Prices will simply adjust by free market forces: if (all else equal)...

• demand for money (not wealth) increases => people cut spending and/or sell stuff => demand for products decreases => prices of products fall
• demand for money (not wealth) decreases => people spend more and/or reduce selling of stuff => demand for products increases => prices of products rise

I hope the rage of hazek (are you hayek with a non-austrian keyboard?) wont come down on me, I will try to substantiate my claims upon request.

I hope you didn't take my previous comment as negative criticism... if nothing can be said about the direction, a neutral update is the right thing and knowing the trigger levels is valuable information nevertheless.

So far your short term update seems to be on track... (I hope that didn't reveal too much about the content)

lol. almost exactly what I wrote, could've just +1'd you.

note to self: read all comments before posting.

I read the update as neutral. There was no affirmation without a precondition. He didn't even say one way was more likely than the other.

Interesting.

You'd have to sweep the change-bill yourself immediately or trust the merchant. Neither is out of the question, of course.

thanks for the info.

also the topic changed to "Bitcoin Prague & Anti-ACTA Stockholm (EUROP)". mew.

one you'll have to guess and the other one is a VPS I pay for monthly

David Birch thinks bitcoin is a transaction processing technology and doesn't understand it's also a money.

The problem with picking tops is: you can't reliably do it, so: good luck

As much as I like python, but one has to admit that languages that use static typing do have certain advantages.

Don't know if this is relevant here, but maybe that "alternative system that acts as a counterpart" could somehow be ripple?