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11061  Economy / Speculation / Re: What does it take for Bitcoin to go 100X? on: June 11, 2015, 01:58:01 AM
"Too large"   This is assuming the dollar holds all its current value and this is highly unlikely to last forever.    Right now USA dollars are used as global money, not quite explicitly but its well known that oil wherever its produced is then sold in dollars.
This does not have to continue and if you believe in natural progression, its certain to change so can bitcoin go up by some exponential amount I believe so.   however it will have to compete vs other mediums and long term we cant know which

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A: It takes 1% of the most obvious target markets.
It doesnt take alot but this is assuming btc could replaced into all those markets and accepted by both parties
11062  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 05, 2015, 01:22:07 AM
this lady is highly unlikely to be making a mistake:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZ6WR2R1MnM&feature=youtu.be

Will be amazing if she is right, maybe she just hopes she is as it definitely makes a good speech.  To say with that certainty that blockchain transactions will be part of all public financing and as ground breaking as the internet is quite a statement if we consider just how much trade is done by the markets every day.
  Thats a heck of alot of business to be completely changed into something new, I kinda believe her conclusion or at least that she believes it.   Did people or business ignore the internet early nineties ?  I worked for an ISP in 97 and I think it was fairly old in public concept by then but I guess many company websites were slow to establish
11063  Economy / Economics / Re: Was Bitcoin actually just a Pump and Dump? on: June 05, 2015, 01:14:40 AM
No I'd say that argument cant really be justified.  Gold has unique properties that require no maintenance or belief to continue in its existence, its not a naturally produced metal on earth and the way it reacts is 'useful' in ways nothing else quite matches.  We can use copper or all sorts of other metals but none are quite the same, its established by itself as a product and the biggest thing is it doesnt degrade.
  Bitcoin is designed to be duplicated, its substantially different and the network effect of belief, maintenance, usage to prove its worth and continued use is very much part of its make up.  Gold could go unused by everyone on the planet forgotten for a century and those who find it in a hundred years would still be able to recognise it as different from anything else and in that time nothing else could have replaced it as a product.  Neither is essential to live by but of the two gold has more unique values where bitcoin is a pinnacle of technology so far
11064  Economy / Economics / Re: If Greece defaults on: June 05, 2015, 12:55:53 AM
ECB fears the losses from greece leaving will be greater then any cost of bailout to them.    So its unlikely they will leave as Greece itself believes it will be worse off also, I can only see them doing it as a nuclear option from some sort of nationalist thinking.  While Greece imports they want to be in euro, if they were more self sufficient it would more attractive to them to leave I think.
The problem for Euro is how do you maintain a standard while compromising, it just seems to be about saving face as Greece never actually qualified to join in a proper sense and for the sake of integrity should not be in the EURO yet they are and this is politics not any kind of science or maths related problem
11065  Economy / Economics / Re: Major Banks Admit Price Fixing... Hugh Penalties on: June 04, 2015, 01:32:08 AM
lol they're not even really paying a fine. Where will the $5 billion go? To the gov't. Who owns the gov't? the banks! They're paying a fine to themselves they'll just get it all back in the next bail-out.
The banks do have to return that money.  The advantage gained is the financing is far cheaper then they would ever get normally and especially at that time of high risk, the money would not be there at all.  Lehmans found this when they turned down a lousy offer to buy them out, it was not a good price but thats tough luck as it was not a sellers market.
  Gov when it 'gives' money to banks is giving them nice terms but they do pay it back and with interest however at the same time inflation makes interest very favouable and it is a gift many of us will never see and we all know how badly banks can treat their customers who take loans, its not negotiated for comfort as they got

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made them pay Goldman at 100%.  Who the f gets 100% in a bankruptcy?

Theres a strong reason for this, lehmans failed and this meant actual losses occurred.  So not 100% return but less and because lehman was so central this was causing losses to funds declared to never lose funds, purely hard money funds that a global company might use for chequing every day, losing money wasnt an option on this just like your bank ac it isnt either.
   Their reaction was to withdraw all funding to markets, this turtling effect was destructive to business as many require overnight finance.

  If gov forced a 100% payback it was to show good confidence and that business could resume and to avoid this extreme caution.  Ultimately global markets outweigh every government [you cannot have trillions in debt and say otherwise really] so it was gun to their head though Bush could have had more guts, he doesnt want that mess on his record.  
11066  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nasdaq is not going to use Bitcoin on: May 18, 2015, 02:14:08 AM
Are there any other coloured coins in operation, Ive heard of the idea but I presume they mean altogether separate blockchain until it actually goes ahead or someone confirms this is even possible yet
11067  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 18, 2015, 02:01:21 AM
I understand Armstrong perhaps better any person on the forum. [...]
If (US) stocks were to explode higher into 2017 as a result of the public wave going into the private wave (in paper), levels in 2017 will be so high that a crash to Dow 5,000 (to reach Gold 1:1 parity) would be the biggest crash in stocks since 1929-1932. Somehow, I doubt this will happen with CBs on watch, ready to throw the kitchen sink at it if deemed necessary (and they will). In such environment, I do not see Gold peaking at $5,000 but at least a multiple of that. Trouble is, we do not know exactly sure what CBs are going to do (keep on printing or at some point just let it be).

The point on CB is that ultimately their actions will become irrelevant which would be a reversal of now when they are considered to control interest rates absolutely.    They will stop whipping the horse at which point it will be dead anyway
You should look at some studies by Marc Faber on previous stock reactions in a excessive inflation environment, I believe his conclusion was a net neutral result.   The gains in price equated to no valued gained over a decade as the company and consumers presumably struggled with the negative effects of an unstable economy despite the cheap money, it does not help overall

The bigger deal with US dollar is it benefits from foreign investment not just national which if lost means higher cost finance and less value or higher cost to stocks.  But also alot of US stocks are in fact global, could finance elsewhere so its not clear
11068  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 16, 2015, 11:52:23 PM
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Is gold likely to rocket? And bitcoin? Also the dollar has been sagging quite a bit lately. That should help gold but what about BTC?

The confusing thing is that gold does not change, its inert and its really the same value every day.  The dollar is changing and thats why gold appears to rise in price, inevitably the price of gold goes up.  Its the dollars which change, the gold has the same worth.  I think thats the baseline, of course people speculate but that wont determine gold itself

Apart from that there is the idea that gold when used more widely will rise in value not just price.   Im not seeing great use of gold though, we can only point at central banks which as a whole are buying gold not selling as was true for decades.    The biggest buyer is China which does not declare their reserves properly, so we really have no idea if gold is being more valued by world population or not.  
BTC reacts to dollar but its price is mostly about usage by its holders so I dont think its comparable to gold really, it changes every day.  On two extremes its obvious if nobody uses it then we are talking very low value but if I can exchange it with everyone, its value becomes very high.  People argue this is same as gold but gold can be used outside of money and even if not used a hundred years remains the same where btc would not, its very volatile and velocity driven, there is a great fear of zero worth there where as people will swap food for gold as it is superior always in its durability
11069  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 14, 2015, 12:31:26 AM
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Gold and silver are no longer money. They are illiquid assets that will become incredibly more illiquid in the coming war of private assets.

Gold is very liquid in physical sense, not sure how else you would mean.   Just a gram of gold would be enough to be used as money and it has been used this way in well known cases where the national currency collapsed even while no country has it recognised officially as money.
Im not saying it wouldnt be messy, I dont want to be shaving off bits of a coin then putting into a pan to refine it or something.  Sounds alot of effort but hey it could be done, even on a street stall I can use the gold in a basic way.   Whatever the price was, it could be used.  
Where as a stock market can be suspended and those assets are illiquid then, though they might pay a dividend or possibly be traded privately between people if they had a certificate I guess.    Paper contracts like shares or bonds are more fragile in times of extreme stress, I do need my broker to stay open and handle my transactions or Im in trouble, the whole market can hitch at times.   Gold as a stand alone thing is hard to suspend or lose altogether in the same way.

In theory cotton notes like we have are more efficent, its only the people who control their 'printing' who are screwing it up.  Thats the monkeys paw with todays technology and advancement, it can work negatively
11070  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 10, 2015, 12:58:05 AM
I guess BTC trade would be more expensive but I can say a normal cost for a short of that kind of short would be well under 5% more like 2 at most to open and close and that would be in the spread.   Your cost is over 9% ?  I guess its possible for a cutting edge deal but doesnt seem very competitive to me either
11071  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: May 06, 2015, 02:19:44 PM
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Are you literally brain dead? We are heading towards increased perpetual unemployment due automation:

Labelling people as idiots isnt the best demonstration of a good argument.   It seems very likely people have thought or presumed these events before, the industrial revolution was a pretty epic change to the previously mostly agrarian society which was very inefficient.   Computers change everything but it was back then that plain old steam power machines made massive differences, we'll get closer to an accurate description looking at waves of changes not the specific detail, maybe in future we'll be in awe of bio tech and how that changed everything.
   In every case people adapt, was it a video here where I saw human inadequacy compared to horses and how they were replaced - human populations are not comparable to animal livestock as a simple resource and mass unemployment is not a given
11072  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: April 30, 2015, 02:56:16 AM
Russia resumed its monthly central bank gold purchases.   13% of currency reserves are held in gold, China was at 1% some time ago and is still increasing but not reporting it.    The Ruble has strengthened vs dollar so rates are falling but with more gold backing it.

Im not sure what could break golds down trend for certain but its a long time since we saw any decent jump on news
11073  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: April 28, 2015, 01:53:24 AM
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"centralized blockchain", at a very fundamental level does not understand what Bitcoin is.

The dollar is a digital currency pretty much, so what he appears to be suggesting is the status quo and this technology is pointless.    A problem with education is its biased to government, partly from the funding and many other cross overs.    Bitcoin fail or suceeds, it was never pointless and it is very much something new and never seen in this world before.  Whether we need it Im not sure yet
11074  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Do miners pay TAX over their earnings?? on: April 28, 2015, 01:31:32 AM
What earnings, you shouldnt be paying taxes unless you are well into the profit and most who think they made alot of money are not including their costs properly.     A business can carry over losses for six years against profits hence you get those headlines, megacorp makes record profits but operates tax free.   People have to be more careful but I reckon you should not pay tax on your little home operation.   
Any 'profits' Ive made I just used to buy computer parts, since I need it as part of the operation I think its allowable cost against earnings
11075  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: April 23, 2015, 01:34:59 AM

Rather then actually fix the problem (say by requiring a 5 minute minimum time for placed orders) they simply make money on the traders and then when the market goes down find a scapegoat to arrest for doing what their system explicitly allowed.

A two second minimum life-span for orders on all exchanges would be the simplest and most effective action regulators could take to stabilize markets. That UK trader should get a medal for highlighting how broken the HFT-abused markets are.

I thought the main problem was still naked short selling or orders that appear but are never completed.     They cant really enforce times on orders due to a large industry of very computerised trades, legitimate and paid by the exchanges to provide liquidity.  If they interfere with that it would reveal how low real trading volume has fallen since 2000 and cause all sorts of problems.
So they outlaw tricking computers which I think is basically what happened, I thought they'd already taken measures like the really basic one of suspending to an auction if the market moves too far too quickly.  I think its happened since a few times that a major market has stopped mid day a couple times just not recently
11076  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: April 22, 2015, 01:36:48 AM
"order" is what emerges automatically

the top-down perversion of the natural order is "cancer"

"chaos" happens when order is replaced by cancer, which dies - it will soon become "order" again


(I think nature can more accurately be called "orderly" than "chaotic" yet pundits use these words interchangeably to mean the same thing)
Is chaos theory not part of natural order, also I think extremes can bare resemblance.    


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Top-down systems are inherently fragile because they overcommit to egregious error

I agree with that and and capitalism by its nature is far more segmented then what we currently have which is basically centrally determined capital worth.   Large parts of society still favour a more central solution to problems, with less freedom for individual elements.   Whether it works or not, its more prone to failure

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Porsche eventually controlled a 42.6 percent block of VW shares (and with options to purchase another 31.5 percent).

The problem was that these 31.5% did not really exist they were naked options sold by wall street.
Porsche did not have to declare their accumulation of VW shares I think was the main problem.  No doubt some trickery was used against them also but if open disclosure had occurred in the market as they got into larger amounts of VW then the system should have worked ok without the spike occurring.  I dont blame Porsche but sometimes just because you can doesnt mean you should

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Debt-based systems are used to enslave the vulnerable majority.
We dont have debt prisons anymore, the danger is to the creditor mostly.  The big risk now is national level of debt or perhaps student debt which isnt a properly market based or dissolvable in bankruptcy because of its relation to government.  USA keeps raising the cost to exit their national tax as a foreign citizen, I think that kinda relates as at some point the cost may be so high it means the average person could never leave
11077  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: April 21, 2015, 03:50:42 AM
...

coinits

I have been feeling that "The End Is Nigh" since Jimmy Carter (young people Google that name).

IMO, something very bad will happen, probably "relatively soon", but I have given up trying to time this.  Also, I have no idea what the trigger will be (a debt default perhaps, a sudden war maybe, a big attack glitch/internet attack, a "bolt from the blue", a financial trigger, etc.).

Dates back to Nixon and before that even.    The reason its got this far is nixon both devalued and allowed China into the trade system, Japan and Saudi Arabia all support the Dollar system, crucial exporters to the world    
Our view is to judge USA alone as it is most visible and its political deficit as likely to fail but what has happened is massive support from all around the world, of course China is much bigger so could this current 'failing system' continue for 20 years.   I do believe its broken but also usa is a minor part of the world production now so I think this is how it is possible to both broken and continue so long as others will it.   If China was capitalist not communist based I dont think they would be as biased to external elements like they are but it suits their enpowered elite

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-g2iGskFPE
Old video before my time but pretty much refering to the same thing, that this deficit spending should not or could not continue, in 1965 and now fifty years later he was both right and wrong I guess
11078  Other / Off-topic / Re: Your favorite video games of all time on: April 21, 2015, 03:37:31 AM
Stunt Car RACER - never been beaten so far as I know and if you dont know it then check it out because I think it still works on modern pc.   Why would I tell you to play a 30 year old game, because it is that good.  The graphics arent, sound nope but the gameplay and feel to the game is 100% unique.  Racing game made by a physicist, most famous for the F1GP series
11079  Other / Off-topic / Re: GTA V PC first impressions on: April 21, 2015, 03:34:06 AM
PC version is just out with higher res then previous versions.   I dont think theres anything much wrong with it but Im only going by what I seen on places like here:
http://www.twitch.tv/directory/game/Grand%20Theft%20Auto%20V

GTA is GTA, gets old after a while but I will buy this on the next sale probably and hopefully I'll have my graphics card back from rma by then though I heard it mostly requires a beefy CPU if anything, oh and 8 gigs of memory is good
11080  Other / Off-topic / Re: Am I the only girl on here? : ( on: April 21, 2015, 03:30:26 AM
Hehe maybe someone would like to take advantage she seems low on cash these days.

I am always sceptical about women who reveal their sex in their user name / first post.  Smiley


Absolutely, I hate those guys.  Stay neutral people, I didnt need to know your male but using male names is forcing your gender on me  :/   

Keep it simple like my name, makes 100% sense and I can think again without bias  phew
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