But then he can sell them back ?   not impossible to move a price and make it worth it, they do this with options expiry and try to make the largest number of punters lose the most money.   They profit from expired unused options and yet still own the original commodity which can be dealt back into market fairly easily as the parties involved are primary market makers.  Possibly btc has less volume for these kinds of tricks

20% off sounds a great offer.   I dsagree on the leveraged shorting though, the basic premise of bitcoin is that it is an accounted for system without leverage.  The failures that may occur from leverage will be tied to the companies that operate them much like when mt gox went under.  We found out they had been using fractional reserve but this is not a failure of bitcoin.   Of course if people associate the two and if a leveraged company is used by many then it looks bad but on a basic level this etf failure occuring would not cause any damage to bitcoin itself mostly just its reputation.  
In a network economy that association to negative events can be serious and cause value lost but it is face value.  Im more worried about the protocol or the mining operations long term

Its possible for large price rises but also for a six pack of beer to cost 1000 which would be a value drop but also price rise in bitcoin.   Might be more effective to name a product you wish to buy in future for some bitcoin and if its price will fall.  People just assume that if bitcoin rises then the dollar will stay the same but its usually the case that as dollar falls other prices are far more excitable in their movements, on another thread someone posted ruble value and bitcoin volume rising so I'd expect higher bitcoin to mean the same

Ive not seen this thread before but being able to place a bet on lower bitcoin would be useful to some making investments reliant on its worth.        This might have been an easier bet to make though - http://bitbet.us/bet/888/lewis-hamilton-to-win-2014-f1-world-champion/

An emotional move downwards would probably reset speculation for a while but it seems like we have already lost alot of passengers along the way already.  I think more ability to hedge would encourage investment and be helpful

Bitcoin etf was never going to serve the bitcoin community and it was never aimed to be a charitable venture.   The idea is to profit from bitcoin growth, how that helps us is not immediately clear apart from raising the profile of bitcoin perhaps.
   Their intentions were to profit not serve though, nobody needs a lecture on that as its quite obvious.    The main basis behind capitalism is open competition inadvertently causes social good by the work done in self interest being applicable and useful to a wider audience.  The ETF might have helped pave political acceptance Im thinking, any lasting benefit is probably quite unintentional.  If it does not go ahead that is more a loss their end then on the market here I think

Mining of gold keeps it relative to the wider economy.  A large part of gold costs are the price of oil to fuel various machines and the smelting.    If gold were a totally enclosed market its price would be less accurate.
Also the availability of gold does relate to its trading use as not just one country has control of it, its a widely distributed element.

We recognise that in bitcoin, that if all mining becomes based in China ASIC farms that there is a danger the network is no longer as secure.  Distributed peer to peer transactions help improve accuracy and reliability of the total bitcoin worth and market effectiveness.   Mining in gold and the possibility of even the relatively amateur masses to find gold does help keep it a peoples currency not just central bank vault candy.  

 Capitalism is the widely distributed and equal worth of a currency freely exchanged, we are living in a world of QE and central controlled worth and we no longer recognise what capitalism was

I dont go in for conspiracies, the most powerful thing is natural trends, you can rely on this because its stronger then anyones opinion and it'll take down anybody no matter how powerful.    When a tide comes you cant avoid it, some things are just bigger and I think we all accept this on a personal level.   It also applies to countries, international trade and global bias that are in play now and in future.
  Humans as a people or species even do display trends and phenomena, not everything can be manipulated and managed, change is constant.   Economics should reflect all this but it does not, its (become) politically biased to the most powerful display in the room, it often ignores natural trends which are larger still.  Bigger then USA or OPEC, dollar all the things we know today can change and within ten years say which is pretty quick if the switch were to an Asian currency or wherever.

For example the bias on OPEC would be its main party which is Saudi Arabia.   They have great population growth which is causing their own consumption of oil to rise and effect their ability to influence external countries with their vital export.   A bigger theme then the sway from opec are themes within their own countries, this I think is much bigger then USA can help out for return favour.  At some point the situation becomes over extended and agreements collapse, more oil going to China at a higher price might be the path of least resistance.    

The working population within China is falling, this causes rises in their wages altering their ability to undercut other countries exports on low wages alone.   This might mean lower treasury debt holdings.   Naturally secondary developments and consequences occur,  I think these are the main reasons why dollar would fall.  Ultimately politics either foresees this change or fails under the strain of the inevitable

If you have to ask....
You shouldnt be doing this, gambling on money 'I need' is real dangerous.   None of us know what will happen but right now the trend is downwards, a smart cookie might be able to predict when price could be subject to excessive negative sentiment

The only person I know who has that skill is a full time trader with a minor interest in bitcoin, take a look at his site or twitter feed - https://twitter.com/alphatrends

That would be the big thing that unknown factors will affect price. Bitcoin is related to volatility as are a few things.   Bitcoin is a transactional currency and its worth is related to velocity, the biggest cause for its use and worth might well be unseen.  
 A big upset in price options on various commodities and stocks registers as volatility and will shift the dollar index and bonds for example, what really might cause upset is that bonds are already expensive.  Dollar is related to strength of bond demand as such a large amount of dollar are used externally, bitcoin is related to dollar but as its own currency may be inverse to any upset to the current economic system.    This kind of logic is behind the phrase black swan and so on, the biggest change is not seen or expected by a majority but that does not make it any more unlikely

POS is the best system because the majority should always reside with the people not the elite or the integrity behind a coin can be captured and diverted to private interests.

Ideally many coins would help confirm each other not opposing systems as now

Going with Ripple would ignore one of the basic ideas behind bitcoin, that it is not being controlled by a central entity.  Otherwise what is the point, every modern currency can be exchanged digitally already.  The problem is when they all rely on dollar for integrity and are printing off money to pay their own bills and making every holder poorer.  

Gox still has coins ?  you mean the liquidators

It might have been a interesting few weeks but really you aint seen nothing yet, this all rates as quiet compared to what should really qualify as big news.  Something like swiss backing their currency with gold should make for a 50 dollar rise pretty instantly and over weeks leading back to 1600 possibly.   Thats where I start to say ok this is interesting and I would like to see how BTC compares to large dynamic changes like that.

Japan going into recession while stoking inflation mindlessly with repetitive QE doesnt really qualify, to some this is normal.   Abe failing reelection would be news, the rise of his opposite would be worth noting.  I do expect big things like yen being refused at some point, to say so now is ridiculous but that would be news for sure

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/islamic-state-finances-how-terror-groups-move-money-E1QGs4SPTaaMkUzcjjMi~g.html


Islamic state using gold (silver, copper also) as their 'national' currency but also bitcoin allegedly.      US spec ops investigating ways to disrupt payments ?
I dont get how they even still exist, yet alone operate actual economies out there in the desert.  Not that we cant reach them surely

They can promise you everything because they can pay all bills in theory.    When the reality arrives its the end of a fairy tale and it does not end well, the reality of borrowing large amounts to spend now is the bill later is far greater.   Eventually collapse is the only possible conclusion especially if taxes are raised and productive business outside government fails or leaves.  Either the debt collapses into default or possibly even the country as assets are seized and other extreme measures, theres many examples of this.  The majority of what backs dollars now is the debt held and traded as an asset, I cant see how they would reverse that sensibly

   The big thing now is that dollar has a 2nd home in every country of the world, any possible framework to support and replace that dollar when it goes missing could be vital

Good to hear and thanks for updating, in my experience he was prepared to sort out problems.  Whether he calls you an idiot while trying to fix whatever is something else but the money was the main issue and fine afaik.

I had more then 500 WDC, sad to see its gone down so much.   I guess there are just not enough users for all these alt coins, no particular fault

Does that not just mean use lots of different sigs.   

Nope, gold is distributed far and wide as an element in the earths crust.   Alot of gold is with central banks but also alot with private interests also.   Most value tied to government is debt and bond value and taxes used to feed that.   Gold is useful because not many governments control mining or large gold deposits directly, China would be an exception but they control everything to some extent

If gold is worth anything its because it is hard to change especially from its obvious makeup.   Its not even especially useful hence its not subject to business trends

Lies deception, theft even and most evidently is cheap money, huge leverage by the banks on all sorts of assets.   When bills are totaled we find those banks didnt even have the money to own these assets outright.  I agree these are ongoing themes but it doesnt make gold or the assets all a pump and dump scheme.
To outright call something as dump worthy is that it has no underlying worth.   The biggest thing right now is this money is provided falsely by government to big banks through their positions as primary dealers, they are involved in QE.   So they obtain cash and influence prices to the point of inaccuracy, bubbles - the conclusion to this is not that everything is worthless and false but that cash or the dollars provided are not correct.   The biggest flaw is currency itself, not that every asset is now false

Bitcoin trading has flaws ?  totally normal, the only thing really important is the central registry reflects those transactions so every participant has an equal opportunity to observe and compete

Could be close to the truth if he now resides under a bridge bitterly lamenting his decisions in life, sniping others on the forum hiding behind an alias :O   

No I dont think thats the case, unless we talking blow up dolls then there is much more dynamics to the 'pretty girls' thing then just a false perception and let down/collapse in interest.  Obviously we know human interaction and attraction would relate to much more long term dynamics within the human race then 'pricing'.

Silly example, but say gold is not a pump and dump and people dont acknowledge this but its popular now and previously over time for good reason.  There are real repeatable dynamics behind why is gold valued.  At worst its chemical and physical structure is known and intact now as it will be in future, very simple case but that part is a solid dynamic not a pump.
    The iphone has a utility, it might be an expensive trinket but also achieves far more cheaply and compactly a number of tasks that humans were already attempting to do on a daily basis, say navigation.   Thats not a pump and dump, prices can vary but we are not talking a complete falsehood to the apple trend

Even something as undefinable as religion, people have been worshipping stuff in the sky for thousands of years.   We are talking a repeatable human phenomena there, for whatever reason this area represents something of value to people, has and will do.     A completely false dynamic it is not then.

Fiat currency on the other hand is possibly most guilty or increasingly guilty of not relating to anything of value.  A falsehood or deception, at present there are misconceptions in dollar value and this is something which could collapse.  Ultimately it is just ink and paper, the rest is presumed and relied on to have a structure to it.


The most solid thing about a house is the land value.   You could say its a pump and pump in that the house will fall down some time, certainly prices vary but it has a base use especially if the land is owned.   The most wishy washy, pumped short term and vulnerable to perception change of all your examples is fiat money and it could be worthless most easily also I believe