2 to the power of 256 is a 77 digit number?   That is hella big but my windows calc was able to give that number so Im amazed if its impossible to then count it or I guess my maths totally sucks and I really dont get why this is so hard to do

I know finding prime numbers is a big test for a computer or resolving the numbers on PI but if plain counting cannot be speeded up, optimised, thats surprising.    Gold can be artificially reproduced, however it really is not something you'd want to do as it is in the form of a radioactive element with a half life of about half a year so pointless I guess.  However I would speculate that maybe one day just possibly they could regularly cheaply produce stable gold and so break the 'reserve' capacity from its rarity.   Only reason I say that is at the same time I think they'd have 'free energy', we'd get nuclear fusion or whatever route allows us to stop fighting over oil, dynamics of society would massively change.    

Maybe that is the point I miss with that bitcoin picture, they are saying if this is not true then neither are alot of things so this is a reliable standard for sure now.   Gold is susceptible to a meteor landing here or on the moon even with giant amounts of gold, otherwise its 'secure' also?

Strength of the dollar is a major thing to watch when predicting the prices of commodities.    I agree if stocks crash it usually means stronger dollar, that would also mean greater pressure on the price of Bitcoin.   If it just stays steady then value has risen, its rising with dollar so thats good but there is pressure on any commodity price when a currency is stronger, oil too usually.  

Thats not bad because an economy benefits from lower prices.  If oil rises too much it starts to effect business cost and profitability/viability.   So at the moment I think bitcoin would act like a commodity in that respect.    The bigger deal is will dollars always rise on this sell off or fear type move in markets and its likely not going to always be this way.
   When gov was threatening not to pay its debt, the price and value of that debt rose which is stupid but its from the same effect which is most trade is settled in dollars (including bitcoin)



Comes back to supply and demand.    The widget might have competitive alternatives but its either a needed item or not, if in demand it'll then rise in price till above production cost

I read a few years ago now that on average all the trillions of USA debt rolling over in bonds has a weighted average span of about 4 years.   One of the lowest terms in the world, UK for example comes to 13 years to refinance the debt.  That is a result of the UK being bailed out by the IMF in the 1970's and policy since

Further more, this is a deliberate policy in play since Clinton.  Obviously we know base rates are low, so by keeping the debt terms low it actually causes the debt cost to be as small as possible.  Clever but also more dangerous as it can become a bad juggle

I cant find a wiki for debt term reduction policy, its out there somewhere but this is an impressive chart.  Think of all the debt added in recent years and yet theres no more interest payable -

Bitcoin and gold are related in that they are both alternatives to the dollar.    So yes different elements entirely but their greater use is keying off the same thing which is reserve currency or global transactions.
If bitcoin was somehow restricted to just one state or county then it would not be nearly as useful, it is the global element and the ability to traverse borders without red tape that will drive its success
Absolutely and that is its worth.  Old is good, it means durable, tried and tested.    When you spent your whole life earning and you are approaching a part of life of questionable health the very last thing you want to do is engage in risk or some new fad for saving your wealth.   People dont yet realise it but the misdirection of the dollar standard for political reasons has been reckless and dangerous to the health not just of the government but the people who are relying on it for stability, its quite likely they choose some alternative less risky at some point

I think you will find standard of living rose mostly from widely available technology and mass production.  Its arguable with so many imports this is reliance on efficiency outside USA but some will say loose monetary policy and endless gov spending is what enabled growth 'you didnt build that' et al
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/You_didn't_build_that

Ties into the same thing via hedonics.     Of course prices have risen over decades, we know thats obvious but the cpi is mitigated by saying well the product has improved therefore a 5% rise this year is in line with a better product.   Are cars now better then they were in the 1970's?  Sure, though I prefer old cars but Im not sure even nicer products nullify the price rises.
  Personally as Ive studied stats, I would prefer the raw figure and then let an audience and press interpret the ongoing effect themselves but we dont have that, most gov stats are adjusted for better digestion in some way
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedonic_regression

Thats exponential then, the thing would be is that beneficial or sustainable even

I thought this was quite healthy, showing unique bitcoin addresses used in a day and highest is March
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?showDataPoints=false&timespan=2year&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

Unfortunately efficiency was not enabled by bitcoin in this case?  So yea what Danny said but maybe he got lucky there on timing.   There was an Australian man who sold his house and also job via auction offers and that might have been helped by bitcoin or some process similar

Depends on how you look at bitcoin.   Most of society would see it as a roulette wheel.   Keep betting red and you can be a millionaire but also the maths will tell you the odds become increasingly against you like flipping a coin heads every time.

The real dynamic is more complex then that but to just leave it and thats the best thing ?  seems like wishful thinking.     That would relate to a well managed company and the share of that (dont mess with a good thing) but you first must decipher which stock or company is to do best and so bitcoin is that choice.  How do we all know that, just seems too easy to say this is certainly true.     I think sell high buy low is more applicable (keep some btc if you like but he has to live somewhere).

Very impressive, looks like Ed209.  The future is now, I'd be blown away if it was autonomous especially or is it remotely controlled or specifically pre programmed is what I expect


Guys this is covered by Luddism and also Adam Smith I think.   If an invention makes a task easier, society will benefit even while some jobs become redundant.   Maybe the majority of a population were employed in agriculture at one point in time; all those jobs disappeared, yet we do well because we are wasting less time (or do more in less time at least, then waste time at leisure not work)


Its been here for hundreds of years.   Even an accurate watch makes someone unemployed but also enables greater efficiency and common power to society, we do gain from better products and especially when they get cheaper.  This partly also explains cheap imports (and why 1933 import tariffs were wrong) and also possibly even cheap labour/immigration; beneficial yet glaringly 'job stealing'  (cheap products make people better off)

750,000  nice, I wish I had that much and that much float makes it more likely I will


Noticed this, not related except for name and its cryptography ?  but you might want to watch quickly - http://money.cnn.com/video/technology/2014/06/27/blackphone-secure-privacy-mobile-android-cell-phone.cnnmoney/index.html

People who just click yes on everything will also be signed up to the MS defender virus checker, so the malware could be back out the door in a week is my guess.

If they survey had tested how many would install the malware if it was described as malware, I think you'd still have a high percent.  So long as its not harming themselves especially, most people dont do much with their computer except load music or youtube

Most antivirus software now removes cgminer or similar

I read Hunt was sued by a silver mine probably for that reason.     I'd still blame the mine for messing up their hedging strategy but apparently they won the case.       I own a mining share that took contracts to sell gold at $1600 and some lower then that, with gold lower for so long now its proved them right to do so.
    Doesnt work profitably forever but that is the correct use of derivatives, they dont blow up by themselves;  same thing for housing debt or whatever

LTC is being affected by asic so maybe parallels to btc as of last year this time?  I seem to remember the price was pretty depressed over the summer and gave no reflection of future moves

He used leverage and futures contract plus of course others had joined in on the trade like some of the Arabs, so there was a swing effect and it smacked him in the mouth.  Fairly sure he broke his own rules by using that leverage to buy silver, if he had balanced it by also owning a silver mine so all contracts he took could be hedged on some timeline then it maybe have worked.  JP morgan does own a silver mine and with much chagrin sells silver contracts with leverage, they probably do quite well from that.


The relevance to bitcoin is that we saw recently fractional reserve bitcoin exchange breakdown and we may see other failures as people get the exchange rate to dollar wrong even short term.  The main deal is not centralise that failure, the Hunts failed to propagate their idea beyond speculators.  This is a shame as we've seen solid money is much in need and they were not wrong on that

Is it also effected by the amount of money tied up in bonds.   Im not sure the amount of trade diverted is yet adding up to much considering world gdp growth.

Also im wondering if the high velocity of things like bitcoin is in some way compensating for turgid markets elsewhere where competition and free enterprise is restricted(regulated), hence very high velocity in cryptocurrency

The FED is only as strong as those who back it.   They gonna be like a firefighter thats run the lake dry, nothing they can do about it at that point.     This links into political and social movement throughout the globe and no doubt very many varied views.   We can point to some obvious truths, mostly it revolves around greater population growth outside USA, outside Europe and the established wealth in the world.

  Maybe the rich nations support FED policy, the IMF, etc however its framed but its cannot continue forever.   At some point it will matter what India or China thinks and not just the party officials but the people.  Saudi Arabia is another rapidly growing country, at some point USA has to catch up in real terms not just printed political capital.  

The FED is just a man behind the curtain, the boom and they holler with grand effect but they are no greater then any of the rest of us

Deflation is not destruction anymore then creating inflation makes a nation richer.   IF you really believe that you should have framed picture of Bernake and greenspan on your desk because they believe its real, they are the saviours of country just by expanding the monetary base.


A stock market crash unwinds values, mostly its a reflection of slower growth and possible earnings returns in future.   Often you may find a company selling for 20 or 40 years earnings not because its expensive but they believe in just a few years the company might double its production so the real PE extrapolated out to five years might actually be 10PE.  
If that process of estimation is incorrect then share prices come down but the value was never destroyed nor was it there created already, its an investment with multiple outcomes


The answer to the OP is yes.   Share prices could over estimate company growth, bitcoin price could underestimate the worth of an online transaction system so on balance money could flow from one to the other.
Dollars themselves are the usual result of a share trade however with interest rates on trillions of debt nearing zero already, with the Federal reserve the main holder and returning that interest right back to government then dollar is easily overvalued possibly.   Again on balance we can expect over-valuation to unwind, the sum total could be crash and a boom for bitcoin - if its useful

There is a point, in that the government wants to retain control of its debts and costs and so they continue with a national currency but can also promise to link the value to bitcoins.

Same thing happened with dollar and gold.   You could say they were interchangable so why even bother having both,  well they had 'need' to change the exchange rate and eventually dollar was floated entirely by itself
As a spending entity, think how much poorer government would have been if they had to own actual reserves in line with their costs.


Some will say good gov should not run deficits but others say oh no, what about my monthly publicly funded job and wage packet so they are glad gov always issues IOU notes not the actual reserves directly


Surely we can have at least one tiny island state with bitcoins as reserve in their national bank.  Isnt St. Kitts possible or is that just a territory  

Supply and demand as always, to increase demand for one country you usually need good production and export and so a need to buy those goods in that countries currency as well as pay taxes to do business there.

Some say you can just trade or facilitate business and so the currency is demanded as is the world reserve currency system where lower ranked countries lean on the highly rated currencies to hold long term worth for contracted business.
Mostly it does come back to production as no country is impervious to changes in global influence that favour business elsewhere, such as the much talked about swing from west to the emerging east

London is the second most traded centre for Chinese Yuan contracts apparently but I dont think that is enough alone, however Sterling has been rising recently but that is in time with some gdp growth allegedly

In the early eighties they raised rates to 20% before they managed to undo the nixon overhang of weaker currency.    You really want to tell me you think they can do that now.

Thats about equal to calling oil bearish as they invent the motorcar.   Never before have we had this much crap and upset in the monetary system, its an epidemic. Maybe metals arent it but it sure is a possibility and if nothing else they'll outlast cheques or bonds

Theres land and theres gold, everything else is risky business and hard to say.  A share should last in theory and thats my preference but as above some will argue bearish tenancies and higher dollar worth in future will retard company gains and finance 

Ashraf Laidi  a currency trader pointed out that gold rising usually goes in time with lower bitcoin and vice versa.   Im not sure why that'd be especially, do people switch that much from one to the other as bitcoin is alot more portable its a maybe?