I was watching the tape and it was really wierd. Trades going off in intervals and long periods of virtually no volume, and that huge gap. Almost like gox getting ddosed.

Theres no whales buying up at these insanely high prices. It's still all the retail traders who just found out about crypto and want to hitch a ride on the train. whales will be waiting at 8k and below or after there is sideways for a while. Right now the whales are all waiting to sell. They didn't even get any of the action at 20K and that was too brief. Imaging being a whale with 60,000 coins and wondering what the hell you're going to. Sell on Bitstamp? These days the exchanges make a big deal out transacting and withdrawing even a few coins, and the order books are anemic. Million of coins need to be sold without crashing the market. It's going to take years.

I think Friday was catalyzed by some kind of failure with the Bitfinex trading engine so it's hard to match that kind of momentum without that still going on.

My view is different. I think the daily chart looks pretty ugly compared to previous drops. The best case scenario is that it goes back up for a double top at 20k before the real crash. More realistically it only makes it to 16K.

It is being a little too aggressive about challenging that line. it might break and go to a different slower line i didnt I draw.

Bitfinex is responsible for the rise? Bitfinex has been around for 4 years but it didn't rise until now. Also Bitfinex was hacked in 2016 and we wrote Bitfinex off but it didn't affect the price that much. We've all seen what happens when major exchanges disappear. Maybe 25% decrease on a short term basis. We forget about , move on, and set new highs. Sure when the Chinese stuff happened in 2014 we dropped 80% but that was about an entire nation of billions of people and not just one exchange. Last week's trading was a clue about what would happen in your scenario. Bitfinex started trading $1500 below other exchanges and then large support started appearing on Bitstamp.

I think theres something wrong with your math. At this level, selling would be a 30% drop from ATH, not a 80% drop from ATH.

The question right now is are we in early 2013 or late 2013/2011? Will there be one more wave up (to say 60,000), or is it straight to crypto winter?

I have three strategies:

1. Buy the dip - you know when to buy by watching the volume. You compare the volume to that of previous drops on a relevant timeframe. Also if there is a downwave with the same or greater volume than the previous wave and the price only goes down to greater than, equal to or slightly below the last wave.

2. Buy a breakout - a breakout is the moment when you can see on the chart that all hope for a continuing downtrend is lost. Its usually when a slightly downward sideways line is broken.

3. Buy the wall - When a massive sell order starts getting bought out I try to buy the last piece of it.

I dont have any solid strategy for selling. I'm always terrible at that and leave tons of profit on the table. I'll also usually stop out if I see the price rapidly returning back to my buy level and not playing out as expected. If I see a rally becoming weak I'll start putting stops along the trendline that I would know would be really bad if broken. That's how I got out at $18800

Thats it. Christmas is cancelled. Remove all the presents under the tree.

I have a bunch of altcoin profits stuck on Polo because of their small withdrawal limits and nonresponsive support to raise my limit and I'm scared to death

As someone who has rekt my health since I started trading, I concur.

This is where hodlers always win by default.

I wanted to Western Union someone $1000 and the fee was going to be $90

shit the aliens have invaded

build the wall

wrong board

3 years ago I said the ultimate ATH would be 20k. It sounded very bullish at the time.