|
i really dont understand this...
right now you can buy 0.7MH for $400 and hash right away using radeons. That's $600/MH (adding on power supply/motherboard etc.. cost), and you can always sell the radeon cards later on to recoup a good portion of the cost even if litecoin goes to 0 or difficulty skyrockets
this miner cost $320/MH, with at least a 6+ month wait, risk of being fraud/delay, for <50% saving?
my question is...why? why would anyone take such high risk for so little reward, instead of just using the money to buy video cards and start mining tomorrow instead...
Is it purely electricity savings?
makes...no....sense.
|
|
|
|
|
Sorry if this was asked, but does anyone know any common resolution to high # of rejected shares? i switched from slush to btcguild and all 4 antminers are showing very high number (~25%) of rejected shares. I don think it is the hardware or internet, they were mining slush fine but i dont like that pool anymore.
I am pretty sure it's some setting i need to do figured if someone already knew, will save me some time.
Thanks
|
|
|
|
First off, by the time you can get TH miners without preorder at a massive scale, the rest of the network will also be hashing on the same generation of devices, drastically increasing the difficulty once again.
Please sell me some of those TH miners for 1k USD....
Secondly, you have to sustain your attack. And its not just the devices, housing, cooling, energy, management etc.
they are not going to buy it from KNC or cointerra..... jesus christ are some people really this..... i thought a minimum intelligence level is required to own bitcoins. |
|
|
|
I was just looking at the bitcoin difficulty chart and realized how small this network really is despite the extreme difficulty increases over the last 2 years. Lets get to it:
1) Currently difficulty is at ~10,000 TH
2) Single 1 TH mining box cost ~$1000 to manufacture (reality is much less than 1k, but for easy calculation lets use $1k)
3) To destroy the bitcoin network you need to control 51% of the network.
4) To bring 10,000 TH (assume evildoer wants to be thorough) online it will cost: 10,000 * $1000 = $10million, add on another $10millon for R&D, $20million total.
5) Goldman saches makes ~$30million a day in NET revenue (same with most other banks)
6) It will cost a SINGLE bank HALF day's net revenue to wipe bitcoin out - less than their office supply budget.
We are just an ant...not even ant, a microscopic organism in the financial world. If bitcoin becomes too big or start hurting those bank's bottomline (transaction fees), all they need to do is sneeze and bitcoin is gone. And there is no regulation/anti-competitive laws to protect bitcoin, it is completely de-regulated at this point.
Heck it doesnt even have to be the banks, even a small hedge fund or single person with some cash can wipe out bitcoin in a single instance.
The other ironic thing is the market cap of bitcoin is around $12billion right now compared to the $20million to destroy it. It shows how far removed from reality everything is, i dont think people really thought this through. If bitcoin can be shorted, someone can just short it, then destroy the network for riskfree win.
The difficulty needs to increase by 1000X at the minimum ($10 billion) to provide some bare minimum security to bitcoin's network
Dont agree with what I said about the current state of bitcoin? then provide your reasons, i love to be proven wrong. But just cant find a fault in my numbers.
You're analysis is flawed and $20 million estimate is low for a number of reasons: 1.) In order for someone to pull this off, they would need $20 million worth of mining hardware today. If they start now, it will be months before they can bring the hardware online, at which time the difficulty will be much higher. In less than 5 days, the difficulty will go up another 25% so they will need $25 million worth of hardware. 2.) The analysis only covers the manufacturing and development costs, and ignores the cost of labor to set everything up, power, and facilities to run 10,000 TH. The ignored costs are not small. 3.) If someone really could bring 10,000 TH online today for $20,000,000, that setup would earn almost $3,000,000 in bitcoin per day. It doesn't make any sense for someone to spend $20,000,000 to destroy something that would earn them $3,000,000 per day. 4.) If Bitcoin is destroyed, I have little doubt that users will switch to a non SSA-256 coin like Litecoin. Some other crypto that doesn't contain the flaw would take over, so anyone trying to destroy crypto would end up playing whack-a-mole and waste millions of dollars. 5.) If the user was malicious, I suspect they would have millions of dollars worth of liability and end up getting sued into oblivion. Can you imagine how much negative publicity a company would get for even trying to destroy Bitcoin? ------------------cut thread here --------------------- There are actually some good responses to find fault in my logic, but the response you quoted is actually one of the worst (no offense to the poster), every single point is just flat out wrong. Understand spending 20 or 50 million to bring 10-50k TH online is nothing in the real business world, we are not talking BFL or Avalon here. Lookup how much a single sp500 bank makes in revenue in a day, lookup how many hardware/chips apple/Foxconn/tsmc can dump out in a day. Did those BFL/Avalon scams really conditioned the community to think mass producing asic boxes is difficult? Understand the corps don't give a shit about mining 3600 or whatever btc a day to make a few million $, lookup how much they make in transaction fees, wire fees, credit card fees. All will be gone if btc fulfill its intended purpose. Also understand you can replace 1 currency network with another, but to actually have people trust and support the new network, is extremely difficult. See replace gold with copper analogy earlier. Finally understand there is no liability, implied to otherwise. Btc is not legal tender under any country including us. There is no regulation nor law to prevent company or person to destroy it. As I said only reason none bothered is because it is not popular enough to affect their bottom line yet. Difficulty needs to catch up - at minimum another 1000x increase before it becomes popular, otherwise there will be trouble. |
|
|
|
FYI.
I too have had some delays in processing all around but everything I believe I earned, I got. Yes, "none" hiccups happen, and a host of other issues as well, however I imagine it's not exactly easy to run a BC server or you and I would be doing it. But my experience has been pretty positive. I started from scratch and learned that there is much to learn about all this. Sometimes the problems may be within your reach? I don't work for, or know Slush. Just saying. If it's technical, or analytical
and adding to the situation, GREAT. If you are here just to piss and moan, what's the point. Buy stocks! Until proven a cheat in anyway, my hash'n will happen here.
I must add that the communication from the pool owner a.k.a. Slush is BAD! But you choose who to dance with!
Oh and I have not experienced any "outage" of either the BC Server or the website in the past few week?
6 hour block just ended and my miners must have got booted towards the end when the pool crashed, reward is tiny and my shares were almost entirely wiped out. This is a forum, if people using the pool want to bitch about it they can, bitching and moaning about poor luck or administration hiccups are "on topic" for this thread. I imagine it's not easy to be president but he's got plenty of critics too. If the pool is fucked up then people should post about it, otherwise what's the point of the forum? Some more 'bitching and moaning'..... (or proactive information about issues to enable solutions.....) Slush's Support Site http://support.bitcoin.cz/Knowledgebase/List now reports "Uncaught Exception".... Had a much lower outcome for 21404 2014-01-09 03:20:04 6:16:22 3192104213 85198 0.00066507 About 1/3 of what I would expect. This is despite solid hashing throughout this block. From past experience I know that it takes typically 10-15 minutes for this to get right, but now it has been 48 minutes and it's still incorrect. Why is it a never ending saga of 'hiccups'? Same I am only getting 1/3 of the reward for the last block, no issues with my miners. I am done with slush switching to btc guild, this is bullshit given the fee we pay and how much they actually are with btc=~$1k |
|
|
|
|
many companies can easily do it, all you need is a data center and a few thousands blades. Those banks have dozens of data centers alone just for their high frequency trading, this is like buying some office supply for them. Just need to get the asic chip designed, then crank out the units, install in a data center, turn it on at once. boom...
|
|
|
|
the blockchain isnt going to re-write itself
any effort to fork it or whatever may be ok until its noticed (rapidly id imagine )
even then they dont stand to gain the entire network under my understanding
id be a lot more worried with sha -256 being cracked but the posibilites of that
seem to be quite far away ........
i could be wrong ......but i dont think so
im sure someone with better understanding than me will tel you why a sudden 51%
would not wipe btc from the face of the world or leave all the coins in "evil hands " etc
no i am not saying the whole thing just drops dead the second you have 51% control, but at that point it is pretty much game over a slow death. I am sure whoever does it will not just put exactly 51%, they would do something large like 3-5x the network. So for the good guys trying to counter and correct, they will need to bring online just as much hash power in short amount of time, which isnt going to happen. Yeah if someone has the same 3-5x network power at standby, then as soon as detected it can be corrected. But that's almost never going to happen. But that's not really my point, 51%, 100%, 200%, 400% hardware, that's all chump changes. My point is the network is extremely vulnerable right now from companies or resourceful individuals who wants to kill it. They havent because bitcoin isnt big enough to affect their bottomline..yet. |
|
|
|
its not that simple
if i arrive today with my 51% i cant negate everyone else and the history
of btc
no i think you can, the 51% is a one touch loss, once hit it's game over. History is fine, but everything at that moment cannot be trusted, when that happens the network/trust collapses on itself. |
|
|
|
many misconceptions, addressing 2 points... market cap is just a measure. it bears no relation to any real life value. saying you can attack a 10 billion market cap with a 10 million investment compares two unrelated values; both are in USD but they are still not comparable. bitcoin has a market cap of 10b, but that does not mean that it is worth 10b.
It bears all the relations to real life value. I give you a simpler example - lets say apple computers is worth 500 billion usd bookvalue. But there is an otc contract that allow you to buy(destroy) the company for 5 billion, what do you think will happen? ----------------------- The notion that if bitcoin is gone it will be quickly replaced by another alternative cryptocurrency and everyone goes on their merry way is patently false. Virtual currency is nothing but the faith of the community supporting it. It is a very difficult task for another virtual currency to re-achieve the same level of trust, faith, and popularity of bitcoin if it is gone. Again creating the network/currency is easy, but having people using it is not. Same as saying, if all the gold disappeared tomorrow, it's easy to just use copper as replacement, everyone will just accept it and treat copper as gold.... |
|
|
|
Interesting analysis, however your numbers are way off and the logic quite incorrect. Read some posts by core devs to get a better understanding w.r.t to attack vectors, mining policies etc. Even if there would an equivalent of money invested to give you certainty to destroy the network. Why would somebody waste say 50 million dollars? No institution can simply do this. A private person could do it, for example in the future a serious Alt-Coin competitor with interest in destroy one coin. That would be the much more likely scenario of an attack, but still extremely improbable, at least for now.
i am happy to hear why my numbers are way off and logic quite incorrect, just saying that doesnt mean much. And $20mil or $50mil is nothing to those companies budgets, i know because i worked in one for 10+ years. You dont even need to goto the top management to have this kind of money approved. if it hurts their profit, it will be gone, simple. So far bitcoin has not because it is not popular yet. |
|
|
|
|
hope it still work out for you guys, did you send bitcoins directly to him no escrow?
i hesitated when i messaged him and he said there are still many gold 1btc available even though looking through the response it seems they are all sold already. Then the other guy came on accusing him of being a scammer made up my mind not to deal.
Sucks, it's one of bitcoin's greatest pro and con - absolutely no recourse after you send coins.
|
|
|
|
This is definitely a problem.
But I think if someone had 10,000 TH on his own, he'd prefer to mine Bitcoin and get half of every single coin produced, right?
So it's possible to destroy the network but most people wouldn't do it. There's a far better way to use their hashing power.
I quoted above post but this is a generic response to all the posts. Banks, credit cards and other parties of interest dont care about making pennies earning those bitcoins. We are talking about hundreds of billions of revenue at risk for those companies. If bitcoin really catches on as we all hope, then credit cards, wire transfers, atm fees, etc.. will all be at risk. It will take just 1 company to say i can drop $20mil to wipe this out or face losing tens of billions over the years. What do you think they will do? It's all about money, they will wipe out entire country's economy and people's lives to make money, think they care about bitcoin? The only saving grace as i said is bitcoin is not popular right now and not been used, currently it is not hurting the financial firms bottomline. The only thing we can hope is a continued rapid increase in difficulty while bitcoin slowly (keyword slow) gain popularity so by the time wall street take notice, the network is so large it will take hundreds of billions to destroy it. As i said, i dont think people thought this whole thing through. |
|
|
|
|
wish they showed a screenshot of the laptop hashing at the stated rate. It's nice and all to see those photos of the hardware, but the key is seeing photo of the laptop screen running at the stated rate and how long the duration is.
|
|
|
|
This has always been an issue and was much cheaper in the past.
I am sure it has been discussed before.
I suppose it would be possible to implement some sort of trust system for nodes. Devs and pool operators would need to work together.
one of the key point not to be missed in my previous post is the cost difference. If the marketcap is at $1million or 10million and it cost $20million to destroy the network, noone would bother. But the marketcap now is around $12billion and it still cost only $20million to wipe it all out, that is the discrepancy. Dont think the financial world took notice of bitcoin yet, if they did, they would figure this out easily and bitcoin will be in trouble. |
|
|
|
|
I was just looking at the bitcoin difficulty chart and realized how small this network really is despite the extreme difficulty increases over the last 2 years. Lets get to it:
1) Currently difficulty is at ~10,000 TH
2) Single 1 TH mining box cost ~$1000 to manufacture (reality is much less than 1k, but for easy calculation lets use $1k)
3) To destroy the bitcoin network you need to control 51% of the network.
4) To bring 10,000 TH (assume evildoer wants to be thorough) online it will cost: 10,000 * $1000 = $10million, add on another $10millon for R&D, $20million total.
5) Goldman saches makes ~$30million a day in NET revenue (same with most other banks)
6) It will cost a SINGLE bank HALF day's net revenue to wipe bitcoin out - less than their office supply budget.
We are just an ant...not even ant, a microscopic organism in the financial world. If bitcoin becomes too big or start hurting those bank's bottomline (transaction fees), all they need to do is sneeze and bitcoin is gone. And there is no regulation/anti-competitive laws to protect bitcoin, it is completely de-regulated at this point.
Heck it doesnt even have to be the banks, even a small hedge fund or single person with some cash can wipe out bitcoin in a single instance.
The other ironic thing is the market cap of bitcoin is around $12billion right now compared to the $20million to destroy it. It shows how far removed from reality everything is, i dont think people really thought this through. If bitcoin can be shorted, someone can just short it, then destroy the network for riskfree win.
The difficulty needs to increase by 1000X at the minimum ($10 billion) to provide some bare minimum security to bitcoin's network
Dont agree with what I said about the current state of bitcoin? then provide your reasons, i love to be proven wrong. But just cant find a fault in my numbers.
|
|
|
|
|
back to back 11 hour and 8 hour(and counting) wow...
|
|
|
|
If you go to BTCG you are doing a disservice to BTC in general and in the end are only screwing yourselves.
Why is mining on btc guild doing a disservice to btc and screwing yourself? I am thinking about moving there, just curious what is it that they are doing that's so bad? vs slush for example |
|
|
|
thanks eleuthria, good explanation. You are a bitcoin sage  ps: is slush pool stuck, 11 hours and counting /tap  |
|
|
|
difficulty is going through the roof right now  while its true that difficulty is going up... it has actually slowed down, and thats a natural consequence of the number being so high that its becoming harder and harder to double every month like it has been for the last few months. i don't expect it to keep doubling every month this year... it may do once or twice more, but i think the days of doubling are hopefully almost over... AND.. if you do the math on how much each GH costs... AND how much power is being used.. there are upper limits on how many GH's we can have, and it will most likely be a lot lower than the mining forecast web apps are predicting for the end of 2014 (as they just double each month for 12 months.. which is extremely unlikely and impossible to achieve) -- Jez difficulty will only stop doubling when there is no money left to be made in hardware, ie: hw manufacturing cost basis = price the market is willing to pay. Currently take the best example - 180GH antminer is going for around 3 btc = $3000, it cost them <$300 at max to make those things (just hardware & manufacturing, not factoring in initial research cost). So we have a long way to go before difficulty slows down. And it will always overshoot as all manufacture pump out miners until a point they realize they cant sell them anymore and have to lose money to get rid of inventory. With 28/20nm now near end, there is nothing left but a race to the bottom. Expect 20-40% increase every cycle until end of 2014, then the difficulty will likely to slow down, by then you can get a 2-4TH miner for <$1000 assume btc remains at $1000 |
|
|
|
Sorry 1 more question, my discarded rate seems very high with slush pool on all 4 antminers. Does anyone know if this is normal? what does it mean it is discarded, right now i am running around 15-25% Thanks | antminer #1 | antminer #2 | antminer #3 | antminer #4 | | Accepted | 557 | 736 | 614 | 497 | | Discarded | 114 | 126 | 108 | 147 |
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
