Nobody knows that date, its more a question of odds.   What are the odds of china buying 100% of usa debt, seems low but its possible and so this can go on forever



When people sell stock, they are buying currency.  A sale must include a purchase also.    So somebody is asking could bitcoin be that currency.

I own some BTC stock, I exchanged BTC to buy that share.    When BTC price goes up it tends to put pressure on that stock price as people are more willing to sell and take profit.    So its already true when this stock crashes, its owners are changing to bitcoin.   

Thats not fiat though.    More relevant is if dollar crashes in value, would people buy bitcoin and they probably would.   If only to transport it abroad, some would use it.    Most stocks give out their dividends in dollars, so by selling they are also giving up those future dollars.   If dollar is going down, then changing to btc would make some sense.  But theres many currencies so its very confusing who is best but its usually the most productive nation with a trade surplus. 

As an enterprise, btc has less transaction fees then it gives out in block rewards.   So I will guess and call this a virtual nation with a trade deficit still, the btc nation needs to do more work and capture more fees to say its self confirming not reliant on outside influence?

Its par for the course I figure, a natural economy will periodically destroy itself.   In capitalism its supposed to be the most unproductive elements become redundant (so its positive progression).   Call it stupidity but its probably right in line that this kind of thing happens, its more accurate to say positive feedback where a situation is inclined towards failure by its own success.  

This is why the FED exists they will tell you, to stop boom and bust cycles, to counter natural failure.  So these giant pools are tending towards bust by their own (over)success and its normal?  BTC needs a firebreak of some kind to stop that situation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction

Would be good to see something different happen ?

Someone correct me but if there is no blocks for 75 minutes doesn't this mean nobody in the world can securely move their BTC from one wallet to the next.    Surely Im misunderstanding because that's really naff

hopefully Im totally wrong

With the cloud mining contract, wont this work to profit if BTC rises in price.    So you exchange 100 dollars, you buy a btc and pay them.  They mine 0.9 btc and price has risen to 1000 so you profit ?  
Of course why not just hold plain btc but anyhow cloud could turn a profit.   Right now prices are down many months so theres no profit but its not impossible

I suppose the bottom line might be the contract really pays off when diff rises slower (then expected) or perish the thought if diff dropped.  Then you get a bumper harvest and ideally the price of btc rises later.  Im just supposing what it'd take to profit.

You know its similar with 'real' futures contracts, the vast majority will expire worthless (or less then paid) but that dont make the CBOE a con

Yes I agree with Harley, current events will leave a mark like a high tide for many years probably a generation.     Japanese are richer per capita and havent ever reversed QE, maybe this could be presumed as good and they didnt want to or need to.   Really its more like they cant reverse, its effects will be around till they either default, radically revise gov spending or more likely is two decades of stagnation waiting the bond terms out

Technology finds ways to do alot of things faster which is a good thing.    I think the thing you are forgetting there is the gigantic population increase, so there is tons more gold but even more then that is the larger amount of people

So per capita over the world, gold is not inflationary.    It doesnt make much sense to say that, in ancient Egypt the price of a field of wheat was roughly the same as now; if you measure it as exchanged for gold.
That should be impossible it seems, the world is so different and there was certainly far less people plus they made the wheat by seeding with hand tools?  



The answer to the OP is simple, no its not having that radical an effect.    How many people here spend gold coins.      We have already debased any link to gold, right now its meaningless.  The centre of the world economy right now is Washington politics, its not some metal dynamic.
   Technology here is trying to take some power back via innovation and cryptography, convenience but look at bitcoin market cap and its nothing.  BTC is barely even a small NYSE stock size, its a fly on the windscreen of a juggernaut.   Gold is not massive either afaik, oil is big yes and the biggest market is government debt

The usual mistake here to over invest.  How many people here need to own gold and how many have a tax bill to pay, problem is you need to own fiat and not many of us are jewellers or about to marry

  It keeps its value, problem is we dont have that much time and taxes are annual so maybe gold does look bad as demands elsewhere can be far greater.
  Ironically the people who should keep gold are those who can last 100 years or more like government or banks and similar but now they dont value it which means we have to learn the hard way again

http://www.dollartimes.com/inflation/inflation.php?amount=100&year=1929

100 dollars fiat  1929
1370 dollars adjusted for inflation 2014 - lets say the bank pays this in interest and so you were a saver but a saver of fiat all the same. call it 2000
100 dollars 1929 got you 5 or 4 ounces of gold.  Round it down for fees and call it 4oz.    Thats $5000 now or a fire sale car ?  see below, the value was kept

Russia has increased their gold quite alot since 2008 and China is the worlds largest producer and importer.   Those two are massive supporters of the price and most likely in future too as they still lack reserves similar to fort knox.    Really they have zero interest in crypto and you all know this already, why would these political regimes give way to decentralisation.  Putin nor the Chinese have any interest in the concepts behind bitcoin, its heresy to even mention this.   I hope not but the opposite is far more likely



If you know stocks, think of the market cap not the price.  Tells you more, far from being lowly priced the dollar is gigantically over valued more then any other time in its history so you would be buying high .  Im told by those who were there to witness nixon and the immediate effects; this is the most highly priced indebted giant bubble in mankinds history, it dwarfs the stupidity of the Tulip bulb mania.
   We'll have to see in retrospect as its not apparent now, my personal take is China and friends can carry us all for a while yet, Viva el comunismo

Just updated my sig to the new World Cup edition

23 trillion, even doge is jealous of your spammy coin :p   1 coin for every dollar of national debt, surely a successor to the dollar

They also are subject to the peoples will still.   They'll ban btc if they think nobody really objects, or on the other side if BTC is a major problem for them they would press ahead with a ban anyway.

I dont think they'll ban this year just because I dont think btc is a big enough problem.   Chinese people are not strictly slaves despite our perceptions, they can even leave the country and buy dollars manually I guess.   The gov just doesnt want business routinely able to export or bypass the Yuan restrictions

Mostly it just needs lower taxes and lower spending ideally.    That largely comes from default on its debt I think.    The reason is lower taxes are more often paid then higher taxes, just because its easier to do so will actually mean more people pay the tax.

It fits into the scales of economy type model.  A 99% tax will be paid at far less then a fifth the rate at which people would pay for 20% taxes.
It is not linear more likely exponential and that is true even if you have the army patrolling the streets taking taxes, the feasibility of higher taxes is just not there no matter how much force government applies it cannot will into being what is incorrect.
     This happens way too often in peoples line of thinking, 'government can do anything'   Nope, no they can and do often fail and just muddy and mire the streets with regulational crap of no use to anyone.

  Its possible to criminalise a population and part of what does is tax, classic communism would be to suppress individual will and capitalism should free them; not for idealist reasons but just because it actually works better.
  Corruption is a mislabel, a river is not corrupt if misdirected uphill and it does not proceed as told

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, nothing wrong with trendlines if done right

Is there any news.  Seems to be alot of volume for some reason.

I have 628 drawn in for a week now as a kinda crucial pivot to hold.  Obviously I hope we hold and form a floor from it

Open use of Dollars was outlawed in Soviet USSR.   They were used anyway and to an extent, there was a market just in dollars and prices for them.    Governments are made up of people who then themselves might defy their own laws, dont worry about laws worry about if bitcoin is useful or not in future vs its competition

The velocity of bitcoin is gigantic where as gold has its biggest users buy then hold for decades maybe centuries.  They in turn borrow against the gold as an asset, bitcoin does not have that idea nearly as much, it is transactional and extremely cheap to send and fast.   So the two are not comparing in their dynamics

Gold graph really should be much more of a flat line.   You are showing it in dollars, bingo that is volatility not gold really.   I'll see if I can find gold vs oil, that is also another way to show price and it should be flatter

pricedingold.com



Ok its got its sharp points but from start to end the price has not moved far.   This is correct pricing vs inflation etc


Thats incorrect sorry.  You need counterparties to trade with and really you need the btc to be with them or very available.  It would be nonsense to hold all of them.

The perfect model is if every person on the planet has 0.003 Bitcoin in their account.   Its not alot but its enough to describe a hundred or at least a dozen small transactions, the price of which is irrelevant
This is 21/7000 or btc/earth's population.  Your model of 21m/1 is topheavy like upside down pyramid, perfect liquidity is a flat model and very hard to dis-stabilise.
   Like if 99% of wealth is owned by 1% of people, that is a form of failure most would say  (Im not sure its true but it'd be bad for productivity, growth, monetary velocity most likely )

This is not my personal opinion but you know when you first say people should take out their mobile phones and place it near the fuel fumes, its going to kill us all.      
Pretty sure its been disproved that mobile phones cause fires, explosions even but that is the common perception afaik ?

So it'll be quicker next time then, fair enough.    


Bitcoin is better trade and gold a better hold from what I see.   Gold you bury under an oak tree and your grandchildren can inherit your wealth, thats hard to say with anything else and be as transportable but bitcoin does beat it hands down for speed and ease of application.
  The spread on gold is quite massive, to quote one dealer 'its not worth my while bothering for less then $10,000'   Most of us need something reliable for amounts far smaller

Oh dam yea.  I knew it was something Scottish, theres an epic sword fight at the end

spoiler = http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27M5KWI_q50

Whose Veronica, someone from 2012?

He would be very lucky if that was the case.  You are right, rich people have different priorities to people earning just to eat.    Theres an investment principle of rebalancing on a regular basis, depends on the time frame but could be yearly.   After all BTC did go up previously and back down and people who sold too much regretted it when it later went up even further.  
    Traders pay to rebalance much more then yearly but as an investment its fine to just keep checking in and taking some out for gold or whatever.     He doesnt have to overreact on this and rush to sell it just because today its over 10% but at some point, yes take profits or distribute gains over more then one idea is sensible

My main argument was to secure his costs of living and generally be stable not gambling everything, but thats what traders do.

I bought at 15k as it looked cheap, never was any reason to doubt or sell.  I generally go by the chart for predicting when it can rise more but also volume can matter presuming mintpal is the majority ?    

   This is a really easy coin to just buy and save.  If its cheap then you get twice as much then if it was 30k, great.   Its not like doge where there is tons and tons more coins.  
 The coins you sell are going to be the same ones coming back when you buy is how I figure it.     I ignore the 1% as that is so tiny, its like the transaction fee also not worth worrying about.  
  On some of my bitcoin accounts they are charging me over 2 dollars just to send some coins, terrible   most arent that bad but never does blackcoin cost me money like that or take half as long to clear.   So I think its the perfect coin to deal with.
   In the end I'll change all or at least the majority of all my crypto into blackcoin,   Iam hoping people panic and I get it at half price though