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11461  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2014, 02:51:24 AM
^^ Thats not a statement on btc or gold, its a comment on dollars.  You could put a picture of anything in there, custard slices 2016 $1,000!!!!!!
Just had the highest rise in core inflation for 3 years..


Iam amazed he was using cpu mining and doge is really high difficulty for an alt coin.   Sounds like an incredible waste of energy and those poor lagged users betrayed by another useless IT dept fobbing them off with all sorts of crap no doubt.   Eventually users start quitting or not renewing their contracts, hence the months long time to discover and/or do any investigative action
11462  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin or Gold? What would you pick? on: June 17, 2014, 02:22:17 AM
Price has never been so high is not really true.   The number has never been so high but value of gold has been higher
This is why gov gets away with its tricks, people judge on face value so 'gold is really expensive'     Its actually cheap and this can be seen by how costly production often is.




Banks lend out their gold reserves as a form of income.   Same happens with shares, big holdings are often used in short sales because you retain ownership and earn money on the lend.

Giga, where abouts are you mining and I assume its surface mining with water?  Is there a decent income to be had
11463  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] BlackCoin (BC/BLK) | PoS | Multipool | Coinkite | Mentioned on WSJ! on: June 17, 2014, 01:26:09 AM
I dont mind if it goes to 10k, makes buying that much more worthwhile and if Im going to be buying anyway I really do want it lower ideally.    Im still peeved I missed out from march so I'd be happy personally.  Sorry if most others prefer up but from my perspective the coin is still way up from where it was, coming back a bit so I can switch some coins over would be good


HolyTransaction send out how quickly ?  I tried to use bitpay with some coins in cryptsy and it very nearly missed because they take so long to clear it


I like this one, nice idea.  I'll have a go later - http://www.blackcoinbet.com/#/
11464  Economy / Services / Re: Need someone to purchase me 1500$ computer! Pay in Bitcoin + 100$ for help on: June 17, 2014, 01:12:11 AM
Theres a few, I know a big UK retailer who take BTC and they also allow custom builds plus they will sell you an overclocked rig not just standard.    Dell's best point is their monitors.
I have a dell laptop and after a while it just overheats, not the best design though its not the worst as it has lasted
11465  Economy / Economics / Re: Could take 5-8 years to shrink Fed portfolio: Yellen on: June 16, 2014, 02:49:00 AM
Banks don't lend money they have, they create new money out of thin air instead. And their reserve position doesn't matter when bank makes a decision whether to lend or not.

Banks primarily create money by lending to each other and via their customers.  If the banks lever up a deposit ten times and then loan it out, it only takes one borrower to deposit the cash at another bank and you can see how large amounts of money are being created.
They do need reserves or need to lie about it like Lehmans did.  I think that part of expansion is secondary, most of the risk is in the 1st point with natural double counting of the same cash.

This is where usury or a debt ban starts to make sense like the Muslims used to do.   However I think that spins round again to explain why Saudi Arabia is prepared to gift such support to the USA now.   The way to really find out when it ends is when the backers decide its no benefit for them to continue to float yellens titanic debt situation
11466  Economy / Economics / Re: eBay to allow settlements in crypto on: June 16, 2014, 02:21:58 AM
It wouldnt make much sense to say that in any case as the customers themselves will be more likely to buy and then hold coins in anticipation of spending them.   Again it can be argued they only hold them for the period of the transaction but in effect its increasing the probability of holders of btc increasing.

Thats Peter Schiffs line that retailers are a negative for btc but cant say I see the logic.  At worst its neutral, the coins might go full cycle from an exchange to the shop and back again but in some cases theres a percent held now


Take any currency, how many people buy some holiday money before they go.  how many accidentally hold onto foreign coins or notes after they finish their travels.  Im not arguing for large amounts but its some positive use not negative
11467  Economy / Economics / the path of least resistance on: June 15, 2014, 08:10:45 AM
but his opinion doesn't matter. He's painted as a crazy, anyway.

They will call anyone crazy who would argue against free money, who does that.   Hold out your hand and shut up, RP is definitely crazy cranky old man who just dont get how clever all this new government policy really is.   Debt is money now, the more debt there is the richer the nation becomes
Ron Paul was arguing against Nixon's and various other disastrous changes from the start.   Dismiss him if you want just because its easiest to do so, solid money by contrast is pointless work in comparison
11468  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] BlackCoin (BC/BLK) | PoS | Multipool | Coinkite | Mentioned on WSJ! on: June 15, 2014, 07:58:35 AM
Price of BC is still ok relative to fiat.   Theres not even that reason to sell, selling for a bill suggests they put in capital instead of excess income and thats always risky even if it were shares.  Cant blame bc for that
11469  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin vs. All Other Coins, are they hurting Bitcoin? on: June 15, 2014, 07:54:56 AM
No since they are not duplication.    Even if true have you seen how tiny the coins are, nobody comes close to btc



Alts are really just a waste of money. They do not add anything that bitcoin cannot do.

Thats nonsense since most are faster to process.   Some are adding features, perhaps one day btc will add these itself if they are that useful and practical.
Faster is good but nothing is altering that btc is the longest most secure mainstream crypto so I dont see how this argument comes close to true.   If I had a million to place its the only choice as the market depth elsewhere is not sufficient to make sure Im liquid at any point
11470  Economy / Economics / Re: eBay to allow settlements in crypto on: June 15, 2014, 07:43:33 AM
Problem is, Paypal can't really charge huge fee if bitcoin is used.

It may cause lower rates but Im not sure paypal can avoid this anyway.   I can already send cash instantly free to anyone nationally.    Its possible paypal benefits even if they also have to lower rates to customers, they are not mutually exclusive events. 

Thing is with bitcoin is that stupid long hash code doesnt sell too well.  I mean we could browse websites by IP addresses but on the whole we arent doing this.   At some point bitcoin needs to take down the scaffolding and put on a presentable front to the world that is easily remembered and referenced. 

If Paypal becomes part of the general phenomena they may survive yet, they could be all about enabling easy facilitation of the network and also adding feedback and simple association to bitcoin addresses .  If they can add convenience they could do well, brand names are often not the best value but people prefer them anyway.  Everything apple does was already done elsewhere pretty much but they do it best and charge a 70% margin on it and people go with what works best
11471  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: GHASH.IO NOW 47% IN THE LAST 24 hrs on: June 14, 2014, 01:46:22 AM
How did that reduction occur exactly because this is a reoccurring factor.  If not ghash then in future someone else and one day it might be deliberate so probably good to track details on this kind of thing
11472  Bitcoin / Mining / Guerilla warfare in network economies on: June 14, 2014, 01:32:53 AM
They could franchise their operation but I guess people like this large pool because it has the most regular payouts, lowest variance.


My thought on ghash is that it could be or would be the best fifth column attack on BTC possible for the least effort and money.   The smartest maybe quickest way to defeat an enemy is to have them destroy themselves.   So if the head of ghash could subvert, deliberately provoking this problem then at the right time he has the power to undermine the whole network and destroy everything.

 All it takes is maybe a 1 million bribe to the head or admin even of ghash and thats how bitcoin died?    Maybe its possible to even make back that 1 million, maybe visa pays this money to thwart a rival maybe the nsa, 1 mill is pocket change especially if it can be offset against future benefits.    Corporate espionage isnt fiction, why wouldnt someone want to kill it
11473  Economy / Economics / Re: eBay to allow settlements in crypto on: June 14, 2014, 01:06:43 AM
It is unlikely ebay will allow bitcoin and let paypal takes a big hit financially.


The reason they might allow btc is if it enabled greater business for them.      The other point is paypal has to pay costs, they arent the biggest fish; they must pay visa, mastercard and various bank fees
If btc can be cheaper for a massive enterprise then I will be very much impressed.  Maybe the maths is already there and someone can say is it visa or bitpay which charges more for the same invoice

My own take is that BTC strength is the global aspect and speed, I think it is cheaper there.  Domestically, I think btc is slower then my normal (personal) bank payment and I dont pay fees so Im not sure there
11474  Economy / Economics / Re: Losing private key with tens of thousands of BTC on: June 14, 2014, 12:53:37 AM
not sure how this is going to affect the network and also are these BTC lost forever? Is there a way to resurect them?
BR

They always say there is 21m btc  well not really and this is why.   Maybe there is only 20m because so many got lost like this.   Same thing happens with copper coins except decades later you can still find those.
No is the answer to your question, Ive never heard anyone reverse engineering the bitcoin out of a lost address.  If that were possible it would make reverse charges and all sorts of things possible so I think its fairly simple to say once its gone then you would literally have to physically dig up the old hard disk.

   Only other thing is if Jonny mnemonic had memorised the exact unique code for that btc address in his head, how long is that someone want to say?  Then you can reconstruct.

I guess the other idea might be what if they forked and changed the rules somehow so coins can be recovered


The effect on the network is natural deflation.  There is a tale of a popstar burning 2 million cash, same thing.  The value isnt lost really, it was just paper.  In effect value of these lost coins is now placed with those in distribution.   Obviously hash codes by themselves might be unique but they are not of inate use so the value is transient.  If your friend lost 1000 coins, he made a donation to every other btc holder.
 The creator of btc was a smart guy and allegedly he has alot in a wallet? my guess is they'll never be used for this reason, maybe he removed all temptation or  not; there was the case of an ancient Indian temple where they discovered hundreds of gold bars kept over centuries and amazingly never used by the temple priests
11475  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin or Gold? What would you pick? on: June 12, 2014, 02:42:04 AM
Quote
gold could easily fall to about 700 to 500 USD and even stay there for a long time.

We have active buyers in gold so we would also need active sellers to match and bring price down.   It wont fall by people just holding it.   If they liquidate fort knox then I guess $500 but also arent dollars worth less then ?  Its all a treadmill and I dont see the result (easily)  being lower gold

A big clue to gold is the oil price because of all the machinery running costs to refine it down.


 Are you going to gauge accuracy by CPI or by the oil cost to your house heating and transport costs.  CPI is artifical and subject to politics and statistical interpretation where as oil is non-negoiable cost usually
I dont trust CPI to stay down or oil to cost less especially.
Here is longer term graph, so oil to gold is 2.5 now similar to quite a few other times, most of the 50's and 60's




The key to the housing crash precursor was to observe the cost of housing in years of rental.   When the house cost 50 or 100 years of rental costs, it was overpriced.   Seems gold oil are also related prices
11476  Economy / Economics / Re: Would people pour their cash into bitcoin given a stock market crash? on: June 12, 2014, 02:27:48 AM
Nobody knows that date, its more a question of odds.   What are the odds of china buying 100% of usa debt, seems low but its possible and so this can go on forever

Quote
I think a stock market crash would cause the price of Bitcoin to plummet, at first, as would gold and silver. The panic would cause people to start to liquidate everything in sight.


When people sell stock, they are buying currency.  A sale must include a purchase also.    So somebody is asking could bitcoin be that currency.

I own some BTC stock, I exchanged BTC to buy that share.    When BTC price goes up it tends to put pressure on that stock price as people are more willing to sell and take profit.    So its already true when this stock crashes, its owners are changing to bitcoin.   

Thats not fiat though.    More relevant is if dollar crashes in value, would people buy bitcoin and they probably would.   If only to transport it abroad, some would use it.    Most stocks give out their dividends in dollars, so by selling they are also giving up those future dollars.   If dollar is going down, then changing to btc would make some sense.  But theres many currencies so its very confusing who is best but its usually the most productive nation with a trade surplus. 

As an enterprise, btc has less transaction fees then it gives out in block rewards.   So I will guess and call this a virtual nation with a trade deficit still, the btc nation needs to do more work and capture more fees to say its self confirming not reliant on outside influence?
11477  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Who the hell is still mining on GHash.IO? GTFO that pool already!!! on: June 12, 2014, 02:09:08 AM
Its par for the course I figure, a natural economy will periodically destroy itself.   In capitalism its supposed to be the most unproductive elements become redundant (so its positive progression).   Call it stupidity but its probably right in line that this kind of thing happens, its more accurate to say positive feedback where a situation is inclined towards failure by its own success.  

This is why the FED exists they will tell you, to stop boom and bust cycles, to counter natural failure.  So these giant pools are tending towards bust by their own (over)success and its normal?  BTC needs a firebreak of some kind to stop that situation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction
11478  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Last block found was 75 minutes ago... on: June 12, 2014, 01:37:36 AM
Would be good to see something different happen ?

Someone correct me but if there is no blocks for 75 minutes doesn't this mean nobody in the world can securely move their BTC from one wallet to the next.    Surely Im misunderstanding because that's really naff

hopefully Im totally wrong Shocked
11479  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: A case study in entry-level mining on: June 12, 2014, 01:28:14 AM
With the cloud mining contract, wont this work to profit if BTC rises in price.    So you exchange 100 dollars, you buy a btc and pay them.  They mine 0.9 btc and price has risen to 1000 so you profit ?  
Of course why not just hold plain btc but anyhow cloud could turn a profit.   Right now prices are down many months so theres no profit but its not impossible

I suppose the bottom line might be the contract really pays off when diff rises slower (then expected) or perish the thought if diff dropped.  Then you get a bumper harvest and ideally the price of btc rises later.  Im just supposing what it'd take to profit.

You know its similar with 'real' futures contracts, the vast majority will expire worthless (or less then paid) but that dont make the CBOE a con
11480  Economy / Economics / Re: Could take 5-8 years to shrink Fed portfolio: Yellen on: June 12, 2014, 01:09:45 AM
Yes I agree with Harley, current events will leave a mark like a high tide for many years probably a generation.     Japanese are richer per capita and havent ever reversed QE, maybe this could be presumed as good and they didnt want to or need to.   Really its more like they cant reverse, its effects will be around till they either default, radically revise gov spending or more likely is two decades of stagnation waiting the bond terms out
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