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11601  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: The Official MCXNOW - REALSOLID SCAM Thread - Please add to this if u scammed. on: May 06, 2014, 11:54:36 PM
Rude and scammer are entirely different things.   You are just helping the real rip off merchants by trying to mislabel somebody you dont like, its not the same thing.
All the people moaning about shares are obviously not aware of investor risk, you can be upset or pissed off but it just helps the real fraudsters out by slinging mud at everyone
11602  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: May 06, 2014, 06:34:11 PM
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lost jobs because of automation

This relates to luddism which is centuries old.   People never like becoming redundant in their jobs but it can be a step forward, we dont need people to serve petrol or even take the cash for it.  We can choose to have people do it anyway but generally buyers dont need or require this and so every other old job like this goes away and we find new things for people to work at like making webpages or whatever.  

This is a step forward, yes people losing jobs can end up positive for society in general.  Politics will never tell you this, hopefully common sense works in the end.  No great crash or depression is needed, just moderate steering would be fine and some panic at the near miss but grim determination to carry on anyway can get us a crash if really desired
11603  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][AC]AsiaCoin - Relaunch on: May 06, 2014, 02:32:44 AM
Where is the wallet exe for windows hosted now.  I need to withdraw from an exchange
11604  Economy / Speculation / fin on: May 06, 2014, 02:24:14 AM
1 billion people care

Is there no legal system in China? Why don't these banks and exchanges just continue to operate until they receive a court order, which they can then challenge?  Huh

Nulla poena sine lege, not in China or what?  Angry

wiki command economy.     Just getting a letter is bad enough I suspect.  

Think of how the mafia might signal to you to change behaviour, first they have a friendly tip and wave then maybe a word.     If it ever got to letter you are into trouble fast.  Do you really want to wait for an actual message to be sent in person before you finally do what you are told.    How much power do you think the bank has to push back against the party in a communist system, you are a loyal servant to the state and to argue is disrespect to our dear leader.
You are free till you reach the end of your rope tether and then push too hard you may be hung with it

Or that is how I imagine it goes
11605  Economy / Speculation / Re: Former Goldman Sachs Partner Bullish on Bitcoin (5/5/2014) on: May 06, 2014, 02:13:21 AM
just out of curiosity: what is Twitter's business model?

To provide a useful service and then sell advertising

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I’ve never seen a small project with more human capital going into it, and so I kind of want to bet just on that alone."

So the value of bitcoin is to enable talent which has been lost or suppressed for one reason or another, is how Im reading that.  Seems a valid premise for an investment though he might want to just support/share in the businesses more directly rather to hold just the coins themselves
11606  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: May 06, 2014, 01:36:30 AM
Democratic capitalism is lacking the capitalist part at the moment, with monetary value centralised and controlled by politics.   Thats why democracy can be criticised as unbalanced

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we are facing something that is likely to exceed the Great Depression.

Doom and gloomers are actually optimists if they are doing their maths right.   So long as you acknowledge not all failure is negative and can be a natural and ultimately productive process.   The worst thing that we have now and memorably in the Great depression is not a one off event but a sustained suppression of business.  Obviously the 1930's had dramatic laws passed and followed the Fed itself coming into existence, it wasnt the stocks bubble or fall that caused a negative.
If we had a crash either in stocks, debt, housing prices or even currency now, that would not be the cause or the start of a great depression.   To truly screw things up you need big(ger) government and grand gestures, fine eloquently spoken words and the hypocrisy of the elite and so on.   It would have to be a continual suppression of business again.

If we get a new Lehmans or any failure you want to call out, almost certainly it would be positive if you look at the total effects.   If a bad company wasting resources maybe corrupted or just inefficient, if that ceases then it is a good thing.  If we do face off some bad economic failure, it is very possible that more positives then negatives are created, so long as this also means stopping the negative business that failed society's need for growth



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trapped in a cycle of ever increasing economic inefficiency.
I dont disagree but what causes this.  I look at positive and negative feedback loop for what could be causing a bias that produces a worsening economy.       Too much positive feedback on a stage mic is obviously bad, so its ironic that we actually need less to have a healthy system.  So the problem with the economy now is ironic, its that they are trying to help too much and drowning out the real economic beat


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you have to understand the linked works. It's not an easy read.
I think the problems are essentially simple in their nature.   The relationship between various levels of gov, its (self)funding and its voters is reinforcing negative trends when a normal economy would not
11607  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many bitcoins do I need to retire in 20 years? on: May 06, 2014, 01:16:09 AM
my dream is 1 satoshi = $1, then you can retire

How about 1 satoshi equals 1 cent, wouldnt that be good enough to retire on.    The problem is still costs in bitcoin, in the end.   How much btc does a farm cost now, basically you need that much for retirement in case you live 30 years without working
11608  Economy / Speculation / Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain on: May 06, 2014, 12:48:00 AM
They would call that liquidity and it is valid to have paper gold.   Mining operations sell forward their production for gold that does not yet exist, when their bills are here now it allows them to pay now and produce later.   So there is a valid usage to that leverage, same with farmers and their crops and so on.   The problem is when the harvest fails and there is no repayment of paper assets.   This could occur across an entire country leading to systemic failure, this is where the Fed or big gov steps in and says we are the answer

So right now bitcoin exchanges take this place, in theory they provide a service but also they open up this leverage type vulnerability to the bitcoin network.  As accepted large players normally, they can produce abnormal effects especially if corrupted like gox.
Centralise a distributed system and BTC begins to resemble a dollar proxy and I think that means it fails or is forbidden, etc

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Only deposits or withdrawals of BTC would appear on the blockchain.
They could only sell the difference between the two though, its not naked short selling more like embezzlement.    It is less extreme then a dollar market still.   If they warn against pools having too much percentage of the network, they should think the same of exchanges and be very wary when they get too large.     I dont believe in fixed regulation but if possible it should be discouraged, a large exchange could split itself up by country or some sort of fire break where each section has its own accounting and liability.

  If nothing else its a good idea for security not to store everything in one basket, localbitcoins was hacked recently but I read they did have access sectioned off.  So I think its good practise if every large operation maybe continued as a holding company but split every subsidiary it can into smaller separated parts.  Of course that partly goes against economies of scale, etc
11609  Economy / Economics / Re: What would happen if BTC was accepted for gasoline? on: May 05, 2014, 09:35:44 PM
^^  Huh   Not sure I get that, petrol is sold straight to debit card from what Ive seen, in most countries.    Fractions are used and rounded if need be

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that could tank bitcoin price. That would draw people's bitcoin holdings and liquidate them.

Every sale involves a buyer.   I dont really buy this argument :p  
The thing is if the utility of a product or service like bitcoin is increased, its very likely going to increase its worth.   I get what you are saying about people spending or 'using up' their bitcoins but we'd have to assume that a majority of people or value present now just buy and hold and this is sandbagging the price up by creating false rarity.  
     People who do nothing with their bitcoin represent no strength in my view.  Im quite sure the more BTC is used then the higher price goes, certainly the opposite argument that nobody using btc (just storing) would create value is obviously wrong.
   Ultimately BTC does not suffer the constant drain on value that dollars have from its main backer, government; it only has to compare well to rise in price
11610  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: [AUTO SWITCH] ScryptGuild (BTC Guild) Beta on: May 05, 2014, 07:35:38 PM
Its been said Doge and LTC only for simplicity and no auto conversion if I remember right.   But cryptsy will change them to btc on deposit if need be, I usually keep my LTC if market is in a lull
11611  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: SCAMMERS!! Beware!! MCXNOW is a fraud!! on: May 05, 2014, 01:09:31 AM
In a face to face encounter with a person who talked to me like this I would punch them in the face. (After giving them two clear warnings, of course) Smiley

There's NO WAY we as an industry can tolerate ANYONE acting like this to a client.

Its his site not the industry's.   Ive dealt with RS and he really is not that bad if you work with him but I suggest you just keep asking how high until you get the coins.  Moan about it afterwards if you want or whatever but if he is willing to sort out some mess then be grateful for that much.   Nobody in this thread can really help you, that guy can if you can put up and shut up long enough, thats what you should do next
11612  Economy / Economics / Re: What would happen if BTC was accepted for gasoline? on: May 05, 2014, 12:34:17 AM
Everybody can do this now, just sell the btc on your mobile right before using your cash card.

If the Arabs demanded payment to OPEC in BTC it would make bitcoins the worlds reserve currency possibly or at least one of them.   At one point the arab states proposed a gulf currency and others have tried to spread the old idea of a dinar currency (gold coins) and Dirham (silver) http://www.sunnahmoney.com/gold-dinar-silver-dirham/
Back in the 80's Bunker Hunt convinced them to back silver as a currency, around the time of the Iran revelolution.  It almost took off, but leverage was used to its failure

In short its not impossible that oil = btc could occur though it'd take someone better then me to convince people (anyone friends with a billionaire?)  The basic reason why is a full Islamic economy forbids a credit system especially as corrupt as dollar or yen and so on, its not totally extreme to convince them that bitcoin is a more valid system of exchange.   shame it didnt occur with the arab spring somehow


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Bunker_Hunt
This guy is a big deal on this subject, I'd like to know if he respects the premise of Bitcoin at all.  It would count quite alot to have his comment I think
11613  Economy / Speculation / Re: Naked Short Selling on: May 05, 2014, 12:26:28 AM
How many exchanges or sites openly operate on a fractional reserve basis ?  Im guessing this is seen as really bad but perfectly possible its more then one, as it might also be profitable.  Especially if price is falling, it increases gains and if this is happening can we expect a short squeeze like when Porsche took over Volkswagen
11614  Economy / Speculation / Re: Are bitcoiners really this dumb? Watch my MS Paint TA trump all on: May 05, 2014, 12:18:34 AM
Basic TA is to draw a line that meets as many points as possible.    I dont see we have that over many years, that graph is on an exponential scale.    It might be better to try Fib levels both on the previous rise in spring 2013 and the fall since December.   In just a basic trend line, we have the continued fall from Dec and then we could look to volume to see if its increasing as price drops (bearish) or is volume declining with price (bullish)

Mt gox kinda screwed things up for estimating a solid backbone to price moves.   So if its possible to collate data from all the other exchanges that might improve accuracy, when guessing!
11615  Economy / Speculation / Re: Naked Short Selling on: May 05, 2014, 12:03:38 AM
Short (over)selling of stocks relies on the settlement procedure so that it is possible to sell large amounts of what you dont own.   Eventually you own up to never owning any and the trade is cancelled, however in a bear raid this works as actual holders see the price fall and sell themselves (or you may just trigger their stoploss orders).   They may sell so much that the naked shorts are able to become buyers at a much lower price, so they never have to own up and can present these shares in settlement some days later

BTC wont work like that, there is no innate leverage or credit given.  Confirmation times are an hour at most ? So I imagine spoofing the system with what you dont own shouldnt be the case, a bear raid in the worst excesses of wall street or wherever is not possible or at least would require extremely abnormal manoeuvres



There is a bucket shop operation that allows naked bitcoin short selling.   However they are not themselves engaged with the network as far I know and Im sure they have a limit to the size allowed.   Ie. They allow a virtual bet on btc price, there have no horse in the race so btc price wont be effected (afaik)
11616  Economy / Economics / black swan wedge on: May 04, 2014, 01:08:45 AM
Maybe not always but when was the last time USA had a trade surplus.   The main thing for Japan and USA is they are tending towards the same point which is to have their central banks own all of their governments debt

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about 30% of US debt is owed to outsiders,
So out all those trillions, 70% of it is owned by valid domestic entities or have both countries made fatal mistakes in their accounting procedures.   The political power is so strong, its broken its mounts and both countries have this flaw which as trading partners and Japan owning 1tn of US debt multiplies the failure I think
11617  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin volatility actually GOOD for business! (with proof) on: May 03, 2014, 01:41:28 AM
You should assume the business is not making a profit.  Any margin on the product is used to pay wages, loans and stock.   Cashflow is not that great, any volatility in value costs the business in additional borrowing costs meanwhile.
    Usually a payment service steps in, takes on this rate risk for a percentage cost but since credit cards also have a cost to them then this is a fair comparison.   BTC compares best on global sales?
11618  Economy / Economics / Re: Hypothetically, if a large enough gold deposit was found, could it cause economi on: May 03, 2014, 01:34:54 AM
90% of earths gold is unmined but in a known location.   They simply have to find a way to bring molten magma from the earths core to the surface then refine the gold content and they effectively have an infinite source.


Some people speculate not that gold is rare but by the time they invent a way to gain large amounts in a similar scheme, at the same time we will have found free energy.  Like nuclear fusion or something.    Economies will not collapse from genuine advancement, but the nature of value may evolve like the network economy thesis   

This is pretty much why Ben Bernanke says gold is a historic relic, he thinks he is the replacement for such arcane practise.  He does not recognise his ilk is a problem not an answer and certainly no advancement over the Roman empires economic policies or similar failures since
11619  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Motocoin - Proof of Thought (human mineable) cryptocurrency. Launch - 20 May. on: May 02, 2014, 03:09:09 AM
Amazing, I like the idea though didnt Hunter coin also involve playing a game ?

This one looks more fun, reminds me of  a tv show or the X games.      I do wonder how we just replace all that btc work with just a game, amazing if its truly possible.


If this works then maybe other games, maybe coin launches become a vehicle for game publishing or something that turns the world upside down
11620  Economy / Economics / Re: Which economy is more likely to crash sooner- Argentina or Japan? on: May 02, 2014, 02:19:33 AM
    Either country can just choose to default on their bonds and then carry on.    Even a currency failure is not the end for an economy, they could use another countrys

This bad debt will cause anger and possibly restrict their future trading but really to say their economy will crash I think is not right as business will always carry on.   Less debt in either case makes their ongoing situation better but the problem then is can they operate alone or on unstable trading terms

The problem of Argentina is poor production I think ?   Japan lacks workers perhaps but also has to import oil and water but it is most incorrect to question Japans standing as they do own vast amounts of productive capacity home and abroad.     Any upset in Japan is more likely to trigger a failure futher down the line of trade, like an avalanche rather then themselves greatly.    Japan suffers from poor government as does Argentina but they arent close in standing otherwise, Japan especially is better off with a major failure I think it would be ironic

Japan holds a trillion in US treasury bonds ?   This is what I mean about others suffering more, Argentina will just be cut off from the world or similarly the worry would be a military type government but is possible they too would be better off with an entire change.     I'am more worried about Egypt, or hopeful they find something better soon and I think their situation is more critical.


Personally I will invest in Japan while shorting their currency in favour of my own.   Argentina any business opportunities would have to wait till the dust settles, so purely on that basis to answer your question Argentina
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