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1181  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2018, 08:46:14 PM


I will grant that you have fine taste in Gifs.  Some light in this time is of course medicinally... necessary.

Fuck even Bob posted a nice lady gif, bless him

I love this thread, un-PC and looney as it always is.
1182  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2018, 08:43:47 PM
I think he’ll find he’s not the only one! I imagine there a lot of Wobservers in the same boat.

Bitcoin buyer 'loses $440,000' in matter of weeks after sudden collapse

https://news.sky.com/story/bitcoin-buyer-loses-440000-in-matter-of-weeks-after-sudden-collapse-11238898

Yeah. this thread is full of people who lost much more than that in paper profits during the latest crash.

And some!  On paper....    Wink
1183  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2018, 08:19:22 PM
A couple of months ago I heard someone on Bloomberg Markets saying that all assets were inexplicably rising at the same time -- stocks, real estate, collectibles, BTC, etc. And now it seems that all assets are falling at the same time. What is the underlying reason for this? One explanation that comes to mind is that people are selling all of their other assets in order to buy into the falling stock market. Or is it some underlying economic thing with the fiat economy?


If quantitive easing (QE, or 'money printing') is over, then free money is not being flung out to all and sundry (with nowhere to invest it, since interest rates have been so low) as it has been since 2008.  Now things have been picking up, so inflation will come, and interest rates will accordingly rise.

Plus there is some doubt that Trump's tax giveaway is well-timed (at the end of a recession when things are hotting up and tax revenues should be paying back for 'the bad years').   If the tax break isn't right for now, and it means less revenue and more borrowing for the US gov't, then Gilts (government borrowing) will increase in rates because the USG needs to borrow more.

So rates go up and up, and suddenly gov't bonds are a better deal.  So more money can stay safe in bonds - PLUS companies can't borrow to invest as cheaply, so make less profits.  Perfect storm if it pans out and the US stock markets know it.

So shares are less of a good deal anymore and money doesn't need to look for new assets - if it's just easier to get higher returns from (safe) interest elsewhere via bonds and lending.

Why gold isn't rising is not clear - because more inflation means 'safe havens' should be picking up, but that may take time.  Maybe paper gold is not what people want (which is what most of the gold market actually is).
1184  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2018, 07:39:15 PM

Polo doesn't trade USD /BTC, better reference an exchange that does, maybe? Polo is usually a little higher than (say) Bitstamp - which I personally prefer, and Finex arbs with Stamp, too, usually linking prices between them (roughly)

technically, yes, but if they are almost 100% correlated, no big difference.
coinbase indicates 6166 low.
tradingview shows btc below 6K for a few minutes, hardly relevant (so far)
personally, I don't like either bitstamp or bitfinex (especially), hence the difference in opinion on price.

I meant arguing whether the price went under 6K - but I can happily agree about Finex.   I only go in occasionally for something that is impossible to do elsewhere, and only for as short a time as possible. 

I am based in the EU, so Stamp - which paid back when it was hacked, and generally doesn't fall down - suits me.
1185  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2018, 06:49:44 PM

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the problem is that historically a Bitcoin downturn has never failed to fall below the 200 MA eventually at some point and stay there for a while.  Undecided

Wasn't it breached late last night?  200 MA appeared to be around $6,050 and we dropped to around $5,600

Not for a terribly long time, but it was breached


what are your numbers based on? Polo shows 6012 low on 24hr chart.

Sorry, my bad -- I thought it dropped to $5,600 last night on GDAX (the exchange I use primarily) but it looks like it only got as low as $5,913 --------- still a decent amount under $6,050

If Polo got as far as $6,012 I think this all tells the same story -- $6,000 or thereabouts should be considered the resistance point, and hopefully we don't test it again.......


Polo doesn't trade USD /BTC, better reference an exchange that does, maybe? Polo is usually a little higher than (say) Bitstamp - which I personally prefer, and Finex arbs with Stamp, too, usually linking prices between them (roughly)
1186  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 04, 2018, 01:17:33 PM
You know what's weird is when I came here 5 years ago we were doing the same thing and having the exact same conversations, except the price was 200 times lower. Bitcoin wasn't even known about - it was a nothing. Now magically it has manifested itself into a thing while we all just stayed here and did nothing and shot the shit. But we fully expected this and we all knew almost 100% that the next rally was coming, and then the next, and then the next. It's like we're a bunch of visionary entitled cunts.


What a difference the simple addition of an adjective makes... 
1187  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 04, 2018, 12:34:41 AM
I dont like merits because all these old users got 1000 merit even if they made shitty posts and they probably never would have gotten that much merit during that time even if they were making good posts. All my merit is locked away with my old account and I look so bad.

Some of us know that, Tera...

Merit granted - may you ascend to your rightful status
1188  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 03, 2018, 01:49:26 PM

21st June 2018 Predictions
Top 10 Market Cap Order (irrespective of price/marketcap)


1.       ETH
2.       BTC
3.       NEO
4.       XRP
5.       BCH
6.       XMR
7.       ADA
8.       LTC
9.       XLM
10.     QTUM



Good luck everyone!

[06/21/18 00:00 UT]

Always enjoy you sticking your neck out with impossibly unpredictable market forecasts.  You've been right enough in the past though to warrant a reckless fresh one...

Merit for fun.

What I am very interested in is firstly, BTC and your 'flippening' prediction. Then, secondly, Monero's place - which I DO hope you're correct on.   Right now, personally I'd be happy just to be top 10 (and above Dash).  That would make my day and it's not too much of  stretch to hope for, either.
1189  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 02, 2018, 06:12:29 PM
Note increased volume in Monero and also BTC looks the same at a glance


Yep, we are suddenly tracking it. In the past it's been an inverse relationship, but occasionally we've synced up, and rallied alongside BTC, which is a perfect situation if you have both.

The only thing is - BTC needs to hold the high 8K range - and that's not something I would bank on, even over the weekend...

Let's keep out fingers crossed that actually was the BTC bottom and hitch a ride up with it - we certainly look one of the better alts just now.
1190  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2018, 01:10:11 PM
Well, volume's up for sure.

Is this the dump to finish them all?

Nice greenie so far

Yep, - be nice to find that WAS the bottom, no one will be happier than me.  But let's see!
1191  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2018, 12:50:11 PM
Well, volume's up for sure.

Is this the dump to finish them all?
1192  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2018, 12:46:29 PM
damn tulips

My wife brought home a giant vase of tulips this week.  Been watching them bloom in concert with this correction.

She has no idea the significance.

Ah well...

What's better than roses on a piano?

Tulips on an organ!  Kiss

As long as it's a large enough organ for a whole vase...  Wink
1193  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 02, 2018, 12:26:44 PM
There has to be uncertainty in the market, otherwise there would be no reason for people to panic Tongue

When BTC fell 80% after its December '13 high, it took over a year to reach the bottom.

It's barely February. If we really are entering a bear market, I'm guessing it's going to be a quick one. More likely, it's just going to be a very turbulent (yet profitable) year in crypto.

I agree, after Gox, Bitcoin really did look in peril.  It doesn't look like that now.  I am hoping for a quicker bounce back that that godawful 2014-2015 grind was.  Let's hope the bottom is definitively found soon.
1194  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 02, 2018, 12:22:38 PM
Thoughts for your floor?

180?
130?

Surely not lower than 80usd?

RSI looks to be approaching a bottom indicator on various scales.



What is REALLY worrying me is the lack of trolls... THAT is a TRUE worrying indicator! No one is trying to make us sell...

They are too busy selling their shit Smiley

Anyway...

I have ascended.

I no longer fear the market. I have reached the point. I'd rather suck a dick than sell. Ergo, I don't give af anymore.

Max pain reached.

Congrats on your ascent, have a merit!
1195  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 02, 2018, 12:20:41 PM
Thoughts for your floor?

180?
130?

Surely not lower than 80usd?

RSI looks to be approaching a bottom indicator on various scales.



What is REALLY worrying me is the lack of trolls... THAT is a TRUE worrying indicator! No one is trying to make us sell...

They are too busy selling their shit Smiley

Anyway...

I have ascended.

I no longer fear the market. I have reached the point. I'd rather suck a dick than sell. Ergo, I don't give af anymore.

Max pain reached.

I think the trolls have ascended to business news networks--they seem to cry "Blood in the streets!" every time Bitcoin goes down 15%. Of course they package it as "Lost 100s of Billions in value!" I don't know if I've ascended, but I'm at the shrug stage. Probably dealing with the personalized experince of a BCT troll has made me immune to mass-market FUD.



The 'shrug stage' is the first sign of ascent. You're almost there already  Wink
1196  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 02, 2018, 12:18:48 PM
Thoughts for your floor?

180?
130?

Surely not lower than 80usd?

RSI looks to be approaching a bottom indicator on various scales.



What is REALLY worrying me is the lack of trolls... THAT is a TRUE worrying indicator! No one is trying to make us sell...

Lack of trolls here is not a good sign, nope - but right now it's all about the mothership. BTC needs to find its bottom (and preferably fast!).

We were holding well against BTC (but of course losing in fiat terms) today it looks like we aren't such a particularly special case and we are losing ground against BTC too.   I am hoping this means we are approaching the point of the bottom for BTC and thus, the whole market.

I think alts will be drained further as BTC looks closer to the bottom, because people simply will want to buy BTC at its low, rather than hold any alt.

One last capitulation and blood on the streets will sort it, then we can find a new base.  Alts will slingshot up once BTC does - but faster.   Of course this is a shakeout for the weakest alts.  I expect Monero to do better than most, simply as it has quality and a damn good use case.





1197  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2018, 11:21:24 AM
Long time follower, first post.

I'm not going to say much.

8000 will hold

10k by Monday.

ATH April 12th.

is there news on april 12th or is it based on some tradingview retard prediction ?

Wow.

First post.

Make a prediction - - - - > get called a retard. I guess I had it coming. Should have realised that I actually have to KNOW what will happen next to post.

Yes. Just my retard prediction. And no. There is no news I'm aware about then. It just happens to be about 70 days from now. I figure that is enough for the winds change significantly. Again... Just a retard prediction though.

No one knows any better - certainly not anyone slamming you for your first post, which was fine, don't worry.  Have a merit.
1198  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2018, 10:28:38 AM

The coins you buy now, may not see a profit immediately, but they definitely will in time.   How much time, no one knows.

About 5 minutes.


Ha!  Actually it's been like a ball bouncing down stairs, if you play tight spreads on buys and sells, it's possible to make money (or for me the preferable 'extra coins') buy selling local tops and buying back bottoms (only in a 200 or 300 USD range, of course).  It's just a bloody time-consuming job.  Of course overall your stash price is decreasing in value, but at least you have the compensation of more coin, or more cash aside according to your long term strategy on BTC.
1199  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2018, 10:14:05 AM
This is getting close to the 'blood on the streets' point.

But it is wise to see why the speed of this drop is actually positive - who wants a two year bear market?  2014 / 2015 all over again?  No thanks.  Give me the fall now, show us the real bottom, cut the dead wood back and we will see the growing back far sooner.

It'll be good to see one more dump from hell IMHO.  

Bitcoin and crypto in general is not dead, right? After Gox, it did look like it might all be over - that is not the case now, nowhere near it.  So at some point there is a price to buy hand-over-fist coming up.  This drop is not manipulation, it's not news, it's just how it is.  We went incredibly high until weak hands FOMO'd it even higher, perhaps irrationally so.  These weak hands are being shaken out and once they are we will find a base to rise from.

The coins you buy now, may not see a profit immediately, but they definitely will in time.   How much time, no one knows.  But Bitcoin has NOT seen its last ATH.  That is so probable, it's a good enough probability to speak of as certainty.

EDIT: for sense.
1200  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2018, 09:14:49 AM
And the most ridiculous part of the last few days ? If you own the allegedly manipulated scamcoin tether then you've outperformed everything else. Rational markets eh.....

In theory tether is pegged very close to the dollar.    It has been flat the last year while most coins are still up 300-1000%

Quite, but isn't the whole point of this latest round of FUD that Tether is an unbacked scam and therefore not really worth $1 or tethered at all.   If the price is stable close to $1 then maybe it's not a scam and all this is just made up shite and not even FUD

All the fuckheads have to do is release a letter from the bank confirming the balance.  No audit required - we can all count the number of Tether outstanding.   It’s a 5 minute job. 

Even if they did have the USD backing, I cannot imagine them not using it rather than keeping it sitting in a bank.   Human nature being what it is, it's not plausible.  I have never touched Tether, always seen it as too good to be true.
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