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11901  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread -- now at: 21/22 3rd Qualifying Round on: August 11, 2021, 09:58:16 AM
Yes, yes, Gers out. They did me well in Europa but it wasn't to be this season, maybe the league loss so soon after the Invincibles season took a bite out of their morale.



PSG odds to win UCL have never been better, but City (!) still the favourites?

With players like Neymar, Mbappé and the campaign, PSG will definitely be the Champions League favorite, their only problem is that the domestic championship does not allow maintaining a high level of players' motivation due to its weakness.
It is very good that there is always a high level of randomness in the playoffs and that other teams always have the opportunity to beat the money bag  Smiley
11902  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing]: Manny Pacquiao vs Errol Spence Jr - August 21 on: August 11, 2021, 09:52:07 AM
Well, it seems to me that it is not news that arouses much joy even for Manny fans, the fact that Spence is not present if it takes away some of the emotion from the show, now as Ugas will replace it, I do not know how much they can raise for it, Although now the trend for betting may change and go in another direction, the preparation by Yordenis must be under a lot of pressure, only 10 days is not enough, the physical preparation for the fights is everything. There are bettors who seek to make appraisals for athletes, and according to that is what they make the decision to place bets, I think that evaluating Yordenis right now will be somewhat more complicated because there is little time left.

It seems that the bookmakers are also in confusion, since they have not yet announced the odds on which they will accept bets in the new pair (or have I looked badly?). I don’t think Pacquiao will be the clear favorite in the match with Ugas, but I can assume that due to the large number of fans, bookmakers will have to treat him as such.
I can assume that the odds will be like 1.5 on Pacquiao and 2.3 on Ugas.
11903  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: You got a pifzer ? Then you can be eligible for lottery in Poland. on: August 11, 2021, 09:44:28 AM
The vaccination campaign in Russia is gaining more and more opponents, not only for historical reasons, but also because people here and there see the ineffectiveness of vaccination. Yesterday I was at work after almost a week's absence and found that 5 of my colleagues were sick. 2 of them were vaccinated, two were not, and another was vaccinated and a day after vaccination he felt bad (apparently the vaccine hit the already weakened immunity, since apparently he was already sick when he did it). And such cases are found in different circles of different acquaintances, from the outside it looks like the Russian vaccine does nothing against infection, plus it can provoke a severe course of the disease.
By the way, we have another person at work who has already recovered, but his story is as follows: he had a mild illness once, after which he was vaccinated and a couple of months later fell ill again, but this time in a severe form.

Well... this is strange. If the Sputnik V vaccine is no inefficient, then how can 70+ countries approve it? Even here in India, a lot of people have been vaccinated with Sputnik V. Actually here it is considered as the most effective vaccine (compared to the two local vaccines - Covishield/Covaxin). Also, in countries like Argentina (which has administered the largest number of doses outside Russia), real time studies have shown effectiveness of >90%, and reports suggest that people there prefer the Russian vaccine over Sinopharm/Sinovac.

Perhaps the explanation for everything is corruption - Russia loves to pay for its status and buys everyone and everything. By the way, have you heard that the deliveries of the second dose of Sputnik V to Argentina were disrupted? Russia failed to fulfill its contractual obligations, putting Argentina in a difficult position. If this happened on the international market where Russia is trying to maintain its status, then what can be expected from the domestic market where the government does not care about the country's population?
11904  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: August 11, 2021, 09:35:14 AM
PSG turns into some kind of money bag with all these acquisitions and from the side of financial fair play it really looks very suspicious. Maybe there is an explanation for this - high inflation in all areas? And those clubs (in this case PSG) that understand that money is depreciating everywhere begin to buy up players at any price. I wonder how soon the others will join this race.
11905  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 💰 Summer Tokyo 2020 💰 Discussion and bet thread 💰 Summer Game 💰 on: August 10, 2021, 09:55:45 PM
There is a decent chance that a great deal of the athletes that performed well during the Olympic Games will also do so during the next ones, and the reason is very simple unlike the regular wait of four years for the next games they will only have to wait for three, while this doesn't seem to make a lot of difference it makes all the difference in the world as most of those athletes are still going to be in top physical shape and will have an easier time defending their medals.

In most sports, reaching peak shape takes no more than 6 months, so this timing shift is unlikely to have any meaning for athletes. The postponement was only important for the destruction of the athletes who were preparing for the games and they were canceled, now that everything is more or less predictable (I hope the Winter Olympic Games will not be suddenly canceled) everything is going according to plan.
11906  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: August 10, 2021, 09:12:23 PM
Eh, it's a pity that it did happen.

Its one of the best thing that he could get. There isnt that many clubs out there that could offer him as much as PSG and besides that he gets to play with Neymar again so its a pretty good deal.

By the way, this is not good, since now Messi will be completely in the shadow of the younger Neymar, he clearly does not have the charisma of Ibrahimovic to dominate even being aged.

but in terms of a new challenge for himself, it's just zero. I would like to see Messi in Serie A or the English Premier League - it would be difficult for him there even in a top club because of the tougher and more competitive championship.

Why would Messi even want to compete with all those youngster in a more competitive league? He has proven himself to be one of the GOAT. The ultimate goal for him would be to play in UCL and win. There is nothing wrong with his decision though, some other top players usually go to either MLS or China League after they are over 34~ years old

Why?  Grin Because he spent his entire career in the same top club with the best partners in the world and the question of what he is capable of without them and in a tougher league has always been relevant.
11907  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing]: Manny Pacquiao vs Errol Spence Jr - August 21 on: August 10, 2021, 09:06:48 PM
Very sad news 10 days before the event  Cry In my opinion, it was easy money (+ 44% when betting on Spence) and I was planning to place a bet, but now everything fails. Ugas is unlikely to be a full-fledged replacement for Spence in this fight, but let's look at the odds that the bookmakers will offer.
11908  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: You got a pifzer ? Then you can be eligible for lottery in Poland. on: August 10, 2021, 08:43:25 PM
In Eastern Europe (and many other parts of the world), there is a general distrust of the authorities. One of the users from Russia made a post here regarding the situation there. Especially among the older generations, there may be large sections of the population who doesn't want to get vaccinated. Now I am not sure whether these people would suddenly agree to get vaccinated since the lottery is there, but overall it is a good initiative from the Polish government. Also, the vaccines have limited shelf life. They need to be administered before they expire.

The vaccination campaign in Russia is gaining more and more opponents, not only for historical reasons, but also because people here and there see the ineffectiveness of vaccination. Yesterday I was at work after almost a week's absence and found that 5 of my colleagues were sick. 2 of them were vaccinated, two were not, and another was vaccinated and a day after vaccination he felt bad (apparently the vaccine hit the already weakened immunity, since apparently he was already sick when he did it). And such cases are found in different circles of different acquaintances, from the outside it looks like the Russian vaccine does nothing against infection, plus it can provoke a severe course of the disease.
By the way, we have another person at work who has already recovered, but his story is as follows: he had a mild illness once, after which he was vaccinated and a couple of months later fell ill again, but this time in a severe form.
11909  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread -- now at: 21/22 3rd Qualifying Round on: August 10, 2021, 08:32:20 PM
Despite a much more confident game than in the first match, Spartak still conceded a goal and now we can say officially dropped out of the tournament. Benfica is unlikely to miss a three-goal lead in the remaining 20 minutes  Undecided
Monaco and Shakhtar won today after victories in the first matches and now meet each other, I can assume it will be an excellent confrontation, as Monaco is showing a great game.
11910  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do poker and sports betting skills correlate? on: August 10, 2021, 06:54:20 PM
It is difficult to answer this question since there is undoubtedly skill in poker, although its ceiling is quite low. Is there any skill in betting? I cannot answer this question since any bettor loses at a distance because of the advantage that the bookmaker has. What would have happened without this advantage is unknown  Smiley Naturally, in some specific sports, one bettor can be much stronger than another (who is studying another sport), but most likely there is no correlation with poker.
11911  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Accumulating small odds or choosing one or two big odds on: August 10, 2021, 06:42:32 PM
Reverse situations are extremely rare. For example, now everyone is waiting for the fight between Pacquiao and Spence, and despite the fact that Spence is a clear favorite, the odds on him are too high because Pacquiao's fans are betting on Pacquiao no matter what, and the bookmakers are forced to take this into account. At the moment, the odds for Spence is around 1.45 and in my opinion it is very profitable.
now it's very difficult, they need to find various bookies who will indeed bet big enough here, the casino must place a bet between Pacquiao vs Spence. There will be many possibilities between the two, between comparing history and recent journeys in boxing and some other comparisons that Spence himself certainly has. I'm still looking for information on what bets will be dropped by the bookies that dominate the selection above 75%.

To be honest, I did not understand what you mean  Cheesy Right now there is such a match (Pacquiao - Spence) with a large imbalance in odds due to Pacquiao fans and the bookmakers are ready to accept your bet of any size on this event. Due to the fact that this is a top fight, bookmakers will receive tens of millions of dollars in bets on this match.
11912  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: August 10, 2021, 06:34:48 PM


In French "ici c'est Paris" = "Here is Paris" which means I am in PSG boyz!
Now waiting to see the pic of Ramos and Messi shaking hands!

Eh, it's a pity that it did happen.
In terms of making money and "early retirement", this is a great option for Messi, but in terms of a new challenge for himself, it's just zero. I would like to see Messi in Serie A or the English Premier League - it would be difficult for him there even in a top club because of the tougher and more competitive championship.
11913  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing]: Manny Pacquiao vs Errol Spence Jr - August 21 on: August 10, 2021, 06:28:16 PM
Agreed that he might not get the knockout, however, I disagree with your reason. Pacman will not get the knockout because Errol Spence is a bigger and stronger fighter who will be in very good conditioning for the fight. I reckon Pacman showed power in his old age when he knocked down Keith Thurman who is 10 years younger than him.

I think the previous fight is just a huge argument in favor of the fact that Pacquiao will be very difficult in this fight. In fact, he got a huge advantage by knocking out Thurman early on, but after that he could not finish him off and in fact by the end of the fight the advantage was not obvious at all.
11914  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread -- now at: 21/22 3rd Qualifying Round on: August 10, 2021, 06:15:36 PM
Where do you see these odds, could you provide a link? To be honest, they look unrealistic, because if we place a bet on each of these 4 outcomes for $ 100, then for any outcome we will be in profit by at least $ 20, and a maximum by ~ 900.
Maybe you have confused something?
By the way, I am glad that the chances of moving to the English championship are greater than in PSG, I would not want Messi to be there.
Hey KTChampions, here is the links :
Stake : https://stake.com/sports/outright/soccer/international-clubs/uefa-champions-league/41983969-uefa-champions-league-21-22
Sportsbet : https://sportsbet.io/fr/sports/event/soccer/international-clubs/uefa-champions-league/uefa-champions-league-60bd70d71cecee12adc5eab7
Odds are changing and PSG one is getting lower with Messi getting closer to sign there Wink

Thx!  Smiley
Unfortunately, I did not have time to see the actual odds (I was at work yesterday) and now the information has changed. Plus, as I understand it, PSG made another announcement and Messi's transition is almost 99% likely (if it hasn't happened yet). In any case, these odds looked dubious, could it really be that every bettor could make money so easily? I do not know how to explain it.
11915  Local / Майнеры / Re: Вот так горят наши деньги on: August 10, 2021, 06:07:34 PM
С таким темпом как растет хешрейт профит будет и дальше падать да и в какие-то периоды это будет накладываться на падение цены самого Эфира (не может все-таки он постоянно расти). Благо пирамидостроители из печатных мастерских опять рынок стаблкоинами заливать начали и сейчас все выглядит позитивно.
с конца мая по конец июня сеть просела на 20% грубо. и, при всём росте, до сих пор на тот уровень не доросла. хэшрейт вполне может также проседать с падением цены. и профит оставаться на том же уровне. опять же, никто не заставляет продавать на просадке. + собрать на просадке сети можно больше будет. ну это уже стратегии и тактики пошли.
вот прям щас - ежедневный профит после еипа не просел - 70-75 баксов за гигахэш. если смотреть в моменте - это надо брать моменты через 2 недели, месяц, 2 месяца.

А теперь представим что в строй вернутся все те мощности (я так понимаю которые китайцы отрубили) + новое оборудование активно в сеть включается - явно АТХ будет побит по хешрейту что явно не будет способствовать сохранению доходности.
Ну и сейчас смысла нет смотреть в моменте, согласен, по факту мы в фазе эйфории - Лондон прошел с пампом + станки стаблкоинов заработали. Что будет когда эйфория кончится - хз, фундамент то не очень ибо впереди ПОС и с каждым днем он ближе, это уже не какие-то виртуальные года из дорожной карты а считанные месяцы.
11916  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Weekly/monthly financial statements, which do you prefer? on: August 10, 2021, 06:00:15 PM
I got an idea how to make these reports more important  Cool
 For example, when registering in the system, a player must indicate the email of his wife or other relatives and a monthly report on spending in the casino will be sent there automatically. In my opinion, such a service, even with ideal family relationships and a large amount of money for entertainment, will make a person more disciplined because he will understand that someone other than him will know for sure about his "successes" in gambling.
What do you guys think of this option?
11917  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Olympics 2020/2021 : Discussion & Predictions on: August 10, 2021, 05:07:35 PM
Yes, it will be in February the Winter Olympics - Beijing 2022.
https://olympics.com/en/beijing-2022/

Being in China, and the way they organize themselves, there is a good chance that there are already spectators. There may be restrictions on audiences coming from other countries.

As you know, in China, monstrous totalitarian measures are being taken when cases of coronavirus appear. I will look with interest at how this will be combined with the Olympiad and a huge number of foreign guests. Plus, now it will be interesting to see how Japan will survive this Olympiad - in theory, such an event should contribute to the large-scale spread of the coronavirus.
11918  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Your betting budget on: August 10, 2021, 03:11:22 PM
Of course I always set limitation, amount limitation to my budget. I only seek fun so if I have some profit from gambling I save it to my gambling budget in that way I have more gambling budget and I only refill it whenever it reaches 0 for example this month I have 0 balance then I fill it up around $1000 that's for whole month then of course I divide it by day.

This kind of budgeting strategies would also help you to be a responsible gambler and lowers the chance of being addicted to gambling since you control yourself.

Do you really play every day? In my opinion, this is an obvious sign of gambling addiction and you really should worry about it. In any case, it's good that at least you can discipline your gambling spending. And if it's not a secret, how long have you been gambling on such a schedule (almost every day or every day)?
11919  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Accumulating small odds or choosing one or two big odds on: August 10, 2021, 03:06:39 PM
I personally think that if you are going for a huge, long shot parlay, you are much better off just having one or two legs worth of big odds.

Each leg that you add essentially introduces another variable of uncertainty, and you'd have to have something ridiculous like 10, 20 legs of 1.2x bets in order to achieve the long odds that you want. That sort of thing simply becomes impossible in practice.

In contrast, 1 or 2 big odds bets can occur in unison in a black swan event, and their odds are generally more attractive.

In fact, the odds of a single bet are not important, their number is important (and the fewer the number of bets, the better). Here's a basic example (you can plug in any other numbers and do the calculations):
On a coin toss, the odds from the casino are 1.95. There is a 50% chance that you will earn 95% of the bet. It turns out that on average you will lose 2.5 percent of each bet.
If you make a multi-bet on a two-coin toss, then on average, you will lose almost 5 percent from each bet (your profit from guessing will be only 3.8025 of your initial bet).
- the higher the number of events in your multi-bet, the lower the mathematical expectation of a profit.
And yes, one big bet is much more profitable than any multi bet.
11920  Local / Майнеры / Re: Вот так горят наши деньги on: August 10, 2021, 02:53:11 PM
компенсируется ростом цены эфира. мне куда важнее итоговый профит в фиате, чем количество эфира. если будет 10 эфирок, но по 2к баксов, меня это устроит куда меньше, чем 5 эфирок по 5к. так-то обидно, конечно, что мимо кассы улетает, но если бы не сжигали - не было бы роста. радуемся накомпленному и навариваемся на старых запасах.
Всегда приходится часть намайненного продавать по текущим ценам, поэтому до цены в 5k "доплывут" не только лишь все намайненные эфирки. Так что пока по профиту я лично в просадке.

С таким темпом как растет хешрейт профит будет и дальше падать да и в какие-то периоды это будет накладываться на падение цены самого Эфира (не может все-таки он постоянно расти). Благо пирамидостроители из печатных мастерских опять рынок стаблкоинами заливать начали и сейчас все выглядит позитивно.

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