Idiot bet to add on in the end, even if Israel did score first and kept things even at half time, Austria was hammering on their door the entire match. Form goes out the window for national teams I guess!

Anyway, I'm taking a meek friendly here, only because the odds look like good value on the favourites:

Peru did pretty well in Copa but their coach left them and we've got Suarez on fire with the kind of form that carries teams.

Game 1: Uruguay vs Peru. Uruguay WIN @1.93. BCR: 1.91
Game 2: Morocco vs Libya. Morocco WIN @1.64. BCR: 1.60
100 units parlay at Betcoin @3.1652. BCR parlay: 3.056

Odds advantage: 3.57%
Units advantage: 10.92

Two upsets at equal odds, but we like them at home:
100 units at Bitcoinrush on Czech to WIN vs England @6.39. Betcoin odds: 5.98

Odds advantage: 6.86%
Units advantage: 41

100 units at Bitcoinrush on Iceland to WIN vs France @6.91. Betcoin odds: 6.34

Odds advantage: 8.99%
Units advantage: 57

Total units advantage: 108.92

Didn't realise this when I posted earlier but it seems Alipay at least has made a preemptive move. See this post on their official Twitter:

https://twitter.com/Alipay/status/1182193887835672578

"If any transactions are identified as being related to bitcoin or other virtual currencies, @Alipay immediately stops the relevant payment services."

So, that scuppers Binance pretty quickly, or at least is a warning shot to users who might think they could attempt Bitcoin buys through Alipay. I mean, of course Jack Ma wants to be on the Party's good side!

Actually wasn't such a bad read at all, OP.

Interesting that you thought the bull market lasted a year (and that you're assuming this is also another bull). I don't disagree with the facts, that Bitcoin is still almost 200% up from its low of this year, but I see any unsuccessful climb back to ATH (that's what you meant with ATL, right?) as part and parcel of the pullback-recovery cycle that forms the pre-bull consolidation phase.

9900 must happen this month -- I agree, else we'll say hello to 6k again.

Agree on Belgium under 6.5. They will probably score 4 or 5 easily, but once there, they'll want to rest. I'm definitely going for Israel too -- they are on an average day at least as good as the Scots and Northern Irish, yet the odds show otherwise. Of course Austria are higher seeded but I don't know, there's just not enough for me to say it's an easy game, too hard to ignore 8/1 IMO, and since I'm a small better, I don't mind.

Oh and friendlies are dumb, took a 9/1 on Senegal today and also they drew the game to Brazil.

Let's hope the more serious competition gives me joy!

It's always been clear that your jurisdiction is where your legal entity is registered. So Yeah, for Binance, it's the Malta jurisdiction. However, we all have seen how even the US can pursue companies outside their jurisdiction, simply because they allowed US citizens.

I'm not sure how it works with the law right now, but pretty sure China can exercise its right to extend that ban on Chinese citizens even outside its borders. It's all been fine and dandy for now, but if the state decides to go down the route of the US, you can be sure Binance will withdraw all these options.

Tell you what, though. Better they reject this now and get it all done and buried... rather than approve it, and then we get Bakkt Part Deux.

Impossible for any product now to get any kind of traction. The deep pockets wanting to get into Bitcoin already have (OTC). There's very little reason for them to want to get into ETFs if they're purely out to speculate, given they already have CME and others to do that.

Tell me I'm wrong =)

Bumping the thread a bit to try and get more traction. I might have mentioned, I do have at least 1 other person I could likely convince to hop onto the chain, but I'd like to see where this gets first on its own. Be nice not to have anyone I know on the chain ha!

Bengy, you "only" need 23 more posts to bet yourself out of Newbie limbo =p I'm not encouraging spam, of course!

A few potential upsets with quite good odds. Israel at over 7/1, for example. I remember getting the first leg right (Israel is either really good at home or Austria is shit away). I still think both teams are overrated, judging from club football but 7/1 has got to be an overestimation of Austria IMO.

Didn't watch last night, but yeah Gnabry is really showing off now. Arsenal must miss him a lot, but then they got Auba already so maybe it's all good. @Trofo you got really lucky indeed. I went for a 4/1 Argentina but I really didn't count on Gnabry's form!

@big_daddy, you know Croatia, eh?

Well, we didn't do TOO badly in the end, I guess? After the quick Gnabry score and assist, Otamendi on a yellow and down 2-0 I thought Argentina were facing down a drubbing, but what do we know? Still, we didn't ask for a draw.

A LOT of interesting qualifiers tonight in AFC and Euro so we ARE rather spoilt for choice, but shall we dip our does first into a friendly or two?

Senegal are riding their form with a lot of good players playing at the height of their careers, so I'm going to go for a beautiful, physical and aggressive upset over the Brazilians at neutral ground.

100 units on Senegal to WIN vs Brazil @10.35. Betcoin odds: 9.31

Odds advantage: 11.17%
Units advantage: 104

Dammit Senegal equalised but couldn't grab the win! My bet now is on Euro, I'll pick an inform Israel to beat Austria
100 units at Betcoin on Israel to WIN vs Austria @7.95. BCR odds: 7.66

Odds advantage: 3.77%
Units advantage: 29

Total units: +133

Yeah, I really, really can't understand how people can get so unrealistic. Yes, Bitcoin went from 1k to 20k but that was one super bull year, and there was every reason to believe that the sheer velocity of that year would result in just as harsh a pullback. That pullback happened, but it was nowhere as harsh as it should have been for a return of the cycle in 2020 (the earliest I expected it).

Thanks to that, because we didn't suffer enough pain, and because we actually experienced a rally this year, the 20x of ATH is yet again delayed.

That's my... uneducated, only slightly nuanced take.

P.S. Dude your math is so not right =p. 8 to 250 is roughly 30 times =p

Good update, glad you got it all out and, yeah, I know it doesn't need repeating, but for the sake of anyone at all still contemplating this:

Never store your assets on an exchange. Period.

If you love the way you can control all your money. If you want to sleep at night and never worry your funds can be seized, frozen or take over, you must be the only one with access to it. No exceptions.

Oh bloody hell. When I read a report a few days ago, Messi was all set to join the national team. Should really make a habit of checking more recent news when betting!

Took out a 4/1 bet ON Argentina. It's not a competitive match so I will expect the Germans to experiment, and this simply means new formations. The same for the South Americans for sure, but there's a lot of raw talents the German scouts won't have much intel on.

Probably fair odds from the bookies, but is it too much for me to ask Otamendi to perform really well and get tired from these games before he returns to England? And Dybala brace, come on!

@iyan: What on earth are you on about?

I wouldn't say we were close. England still came away with the 1-0 win, but the Portuguese never really threatened to score either, so probably was a bad bet in the first place. Live and learn, no?

Another friendly today and you know what? Messi is not fully fit but he's hungry as ever, and it's a friendly so Germany will experiment. Upset?

100 units at Bitcoinrush on Argentina to WIN vs Germany @4.13. Betcoin odds: 4.02.

Odds advantage: 2.78%
Units advantage: 11

Maybe what you want after all is a whitelabel casino. You don't want to start from scratch yet, until you learn a bit more about running a casino and managing revenues, along with expenses you haven't thought about, like support staff, promotions, marketing. Hosting and maintenance is the least of your worries, though once you grow, you might find you need dedicated servers, bigger bandwidth, better security.

1. Buying those scripts and paying for each option doesn't show you the cost for maintenance and upgrades to the script later on. And you'll be limited in what you'll be able to modify after.
2. Building your own without experience might lead you down the wrong path.
3. Better to see a few whitelabel options and try the one you like first.

P.S. It's not as easy as it looks;)

Steak one day and dog food the next? What is he talking about, that's certainly not the Bitcoin I know of.

Love the irony we see of more and more each day. Forbes talking about trust in an asset they would have been more than happy to diss in the years before. A publication from new media carrying/promoting an illustration of revolution and yet talking about someone from the old school of money having a "deep understanding" of Bitcoin.

Most traders aren't good traders. They won't even tell you that because that's their rice bowl. I've validated this myself plenty of times. Whale channels. Minnow channels. Shark groups. Paid and free. Public, private, exclusive. I've had more than my share to satisfy my curiosity and they're all really, in objectiveness. Not very good.

Says a lot when even the most famous funds shrank in the bear. Results would have been very similar to just buying bitcoin at dollar cost average over time.

Might also help to understand that these bots are actually only automating methods and strategies that you yourself have to specify.

It is not going to magically trade for you, it will only automate the process you would otherwise have manually done yourself. So that means you have to specify the rules, in a script. And the bot will execute orders if the market conditions are met.

You can of course just import or use pre-set scripts, but if you don't know what you're doing, especially on leverage, you'd just as easily automate the wiping out of your Bitcoin balance.

I find it ironic though how everything seems to be just as corporate, if not more, than regular good old banker suits and ties.

Decentralise everything? Except marketing, advertising, banking and debit cards systems. Instead of just using crypto (or rather, using crypto to pay and settle everything in fiat) we can now even also earn interest with crypto.com cards, use HSBC's private blockchain solutions, etc.

People used to be afraid the banks would attack crypto and kill them off. Banks were smarter than that. They assumed crypto and made it their own. Now people can't tell the difference.

Wasn't a German bank last week also using a stock to flow model to relate the hardness of Bitcoin (in comparison to the hardness of gold). Saw the piece of news trawling the usual sites a few days ago, but it headlined with a $90k valuation by May 2020, so yeah, maybe needed a lot of tweaking. The researchers did admit they hadn't priced in halving though, but I fear to see what 6-figure digit that would have brought up to surface!

Goes without saying but yeah I get you, even at $1k I would be nervous but still breathing. In a way, that might even be good for everyone who believes in it super long term... that would be a total capitulation, total purge.

Yeah, I know those "I told you sos" which is why I can never go all in. Too many lives and futures at stake to enter 100% into this social experiment. But I'd love to be the one to say I told you so, to myself, in a few years;)