Hurricanes to Slow Down US Economic Growth

The American economy improved slightly faster versus its earlier estimate during the Q2, this is the fastest growth recorded after two years. However, the progress could possibly slow down in Q3 brought by the blow of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The GDP rose at an annualized rate at 3.1 percent from the months of April to June, according to the Commerce Department on Thursday.

US economic status in the last quarter was considered the fastest since the Q1 of 2015, after the 1.2 percent progress from January to March. According to economists, the huge storms Harvey and Irma that hit Florida and Texas has the tendency to cutback six-tenths of GDP percentage point in the third quarter.

The home building, home sales,  industrial production, and retail sales dropped in August which was mainly blamed to hurricane Harvey. Moreover, the sluggish data is already expected in September due to the so-called ‘monster storm’ Irma. However, recovery plans are predicted to lift growth for the GDP in Q4 and also in 2018 earlier. The indications that show further improvement on business inventory investments could possibly ease down its effect towards the economy.

Other reports on Thursday states that the Commerce Department says, wholesale inventories grew by 1.0 percent for the month of August and 0.6 percent in July subsequently. While retailer’s inventories perked up by 0.7 percent and remained steady in July.  On one hand, the department added that goods trade deficit declined to 1.4 percent ($62.9 billion) last month, which led to an upside risk to growth forecast below 2.5 percent for the fourth quarter.

The aftermath of the previous storms Harvey and Irma continue to affect even the labor market which is projected to a weak growth on jobs for the current month. Based on the third readings of the Labor Department, the initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits rose to 12,000 according to a seasonally adjusted 272,000 for the week until 23rd of September. Furthermore, prices of long-dated U.S. Treasuries traded in a lower rung, and DXY weakened against another group of currencies.

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Qatar’s Imports Surged in August Despite of Sanctions

Imports of Qatar rose in value as it bounced off abruptly during the month of August compared to the earlier month as stated in the government data on Wednesday. This could mean that the economic impact of sanctions enforced by neighboring Arab nations is ebbing.

Previously imports dropped over a third in value after several countries including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt which severed their diplomatic ties with Doha on June 5. However, this affected the shipping routes to Qatar as it closed the border of its country with Saudi Arabia where food and construction materials are being imported.

However, figures showed a sudden increase of 39.1 percent to 8.68 billion riyals or $2.38 billion last month as reported by the planning and statistics ministry. Although in contrast to the statistics from a year earlier, the imports were 7.8 percent lower exhibiting a big recovery compared to the levels for the month of June and July when it plunged greater than 35 percent last year.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 27, 2017

The British pound has been competing with the surge of the dollar and a basket of currencies is already behind of the currency. The performance of the British currency has been better than other currencies as reflected in the past few weeks as it was supported by the Bank of England and the U.K. government which keeps it from collapsing. 

The central bank supports the currency which allows the probability of a rate hike for the year. It seems that the bank would not disturb the economy with the ongoing process of Brexit that flows at a faster pace than in their last meeting. Although, they noted that they would interfere when necessary. It has improved the confidence of the U.K. economy which also pushes the currency at a slower but steady in the past few weeks.

The U.K. government aptly proceeds with the Brexit process through their parliament which helped the situation and supported the pound to rise stronger over time. Although the U.K. Prime Minister May lengthened the timeline for Brexit in the new few years. In the meantime, her approach implies that the both the nation and the investors trust the economy.

Today, there is no major economic news from the U.K. anticipated but the durable goods data will be released from the U.S. The greenback is presumed to hold the current rates because of the expected announcement in the afternoon from Trump to implement a new tax system. Consequently, the GBP/USD pair will be put under pressure.

NZ Business Confidence Index Plunged After General Election

After the general election in New Zealand, the business confidence in the country has declined to its two-year low which is caused by the fears of manufacturers for a downturn.

Before the voting on September 23, the confidence index fell to zero against 18.3 last month as mentioned by ANZ Bank New Zealand on Tuesday.

More than three months passed after the survey of manufacturing companies issued a pessimistic forecast for business conditions within next year, higher by 2 percent in the earlier poll.

Moreover, the sector has the tendency to cut down hiring while respondents are expecting for a lower salary.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 25, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen declined during the Friday session as the market looks for support close to the 112 level. Hence, the market will be more appealing to buyers because of the Federal Reserve plans to reduce their balance sheet. This market is sensitive to the “risk on” factor added to the overall interest rate outlook for both central banks.

The Federal is way earlier than the Bank of Japan regarding the rise in interest rates that makes it highly probable to move to the upper channel. It may be not wise to short this pair for now. However, there are buying opportunities in pullbacks. On the weekly chart, there is a consolidation seen in the 108 level below and 114.50 level above for long term. The next target level will be 114.50 while a decline would offer value to the market. There might be some noise every now and then because of “risks off” incidents worldwide in consideration of the upsurge in the stock market.

Incremental increase and opening bigger positions are the best means of trading this pair in the background of an upward rally. If the market breaks over the 115 handle, it will lead to a “buy-and-hold” situation although this may take some time to happen. For now, buyers will predominate this pair for short-term to take advantage of the current situation.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 22, 2017

The EUR/USD had a mixed performance during the daytime trading on Thursday, showing some choppiness without any hints on how to handle the dollar recovery. It happened after the FOMC meeting in which the Federal Reserve did not exclude chances for a rate increase in December and decided to begin the program to cut balance sheets. These combined announcements enabled to maintain the bid under the greenbacks, however, the trend of the EURUSD pair remained choppy to a certain extent.

Moreover, the single European currency weakened and moved below the 1.19 mark during the morning session, afterward, it started to recover and moved upwards since the US dollar weakened again over other selected currencies. With this, the euro was able to drive higher than the 1.19 level and currently trading in the 1.2950 area which continues to gain strength. It appeared that the pair would retrace its losses in the near term while the dollar bulls still having a tough time to generate strength recovery.

The USD failed to become well-composed in the past couple of days, as it loses its bullish gains. While the EUR successfully recovered due to the discussion about the continuous QE tapering in the market which is very visible to everyone.

In the near term, the euro is expected to remain in the bid as the pair test the range highs at 1.2070. The time for the dollar has not happened yet, therefore, bulls should be willing to wait for strong signals sent by the Fed regarding the rate hike, together with the ECB’s tapering talk and from that, we could expect for a reversal of fortune.

Ultimately, there are no major economic releases for today except the  speech of ECB President Mario Draghi which is anticipated during London hours. According to forecasts, Draghi will tackle about the monetary policy while the market is still searching for some insights about tapering, however, the ECB president is known for his inclination not to touch the monetary policy during this kind of meetings. Furthermore, it remains unclear if this will brought an impact towards the euro-dollar pair.

US Federal Reserve Kept Interest Rates On Hold

The biggest crisis within the financial sector was recorded nearly a decade ago, while the Federal Reserve lead the turning point and decided to begin unwinding the stimulus in order to avoid another depression.

Moreover, the US Fed will begin the $4.5 trillion worth of balance sheet reduction in October and initially will start by $10bn each month. According to Fed chair Janet Yellen, the normalization process is expected to be gradual and seems foreseeable.

While US policymakers kept the dollar rates unchanged at 1.25% to 1.5%. The FOMC is projected to increase borrowing costs for the second time in 2017, followed by the anticipated three-time hike in 2018.

During the press conference, J. Yellen confirmed that the central bank has no clue regarding the failure of inflation to return to its target. In addition to, she already anticipated for the short-term damages caused by Hurricanes Irma, Harvey and Maria to the American economy. Yellen still doesn't have any plans for the future as she hasn’t met US President Donald Trump and did not even discussed whether she would pursue to have a second term after her first stint which will end on February 2018.

It appears that investors see the Fed’s decisions as positive, considering the shares moved slightly higher in New York. The American dollar rose amid the weakening of the US government debt. Investors are prepared with the impact of the Fed’s policies against the markets.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 21, 2017

The EURUSD trailed downwards during Wednesday's trading session after the release of Federal Research report as the central bank maintained interest rates. Moreover, the Fed Reserve announced that they progress with the quantitative tightening with an amount of 600 billion approximately, which is related to balance sheet reduction every year.

The FOMC also mentioned another rate increase scheduled presumably in December. Among 16 Fed members, there are 11 who voted for a hike this year. According to forecasts made by the officials, it might extend until next year to attain the neutral rate level of Fed funds. The Federal Reserve System gradually approach the issue about the three-time hike in 2019 and 2020 and the long-term rate was lowered down to 2.75%, with the previously 3.0%.

The euro-dollar pair weakened after the dollar made some progress along with the increase of yields. The support lies at 1.1834 region around the lows last week while resistance can be found at 1.2092 level near the previous highs.

The RSI (relative strength index) which functions as a momentum oscillator measuring the performance of the momentum, whether it will accelerate or decelerate. The indicator broke the support which shows an ascending negative momentum. On the other hand, the MACD histogram prints in the red, reflecting a downward trajectory that leads to a lower exchange rate.

Australian Economy Will Decline In 2018, Says Evans

According to some readings, Australia’s economic growth may decline in 2018, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is planning for a rate hike and this will be the first time in late 2010.

The Westpac-MI Leading Index gauges the domestic and international indicators in speculating the possible outlook of Australian economy within 3-9 months. However, the composite index is down to -0.19% in the previous month and stayed in the negative zone for three consecutive months.

With the -0.19% result may indicate that Australian economy will decrease lower than 2.75%, this is generally known to be the current trend rate of the country. On March 2017, the rate came in at +1.13%.

According to Westpac chief economist, Bill Evans, the latest predictions would affect those who anticipated that the GDP growth for 2017 will reach 3%, the expectant, including the RBA may likely end up disappointed. In spite of the mixed data for this period which may further drag down the headline index, Evans remained unchanged with his views that economic growth of the county will still be lower next year.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 20, 2017

The currency pair EUR/USD was able to make some slight improvement during the trading session yesterday, however, the pair resumed the consolidation prior the meeting of the Fed Reserve scheduled on Thursday.

The German Zew Investor confidence had increased which buoyed the euro-dollar pair, but the attention of the traders are centered towards the Federal Reserve. When they mentioned about quantitative tightening during the meeting, it would likely that the U.S. import prices will rise more than 2% year over year.

The EURUSD remained to sit on the 10-day moving average, and continued consolidating before the Fed meeting tomorrow. The pair’s support touched the 1.1834 level around the lows last week. On one side, the resistance entered the 1.2092 region near the highs of the previous week.

Moreover, prices seem to generate a bull flag formation serves a pause that refreshes upwards. The negative momentum is moving downwards while the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is printing in the red showing an ascending trajectory that reflects for further consolidation.

Japanese Firms Expect Positive Economic Growth for US and China

Large number of companies in Japan have optimistic views for the American economy based on Reuters poll. This restored market confidence as they worry about the possible slow down of US growth.

The majority also had issued a positive forecast for the Chinese economy amid the negative outlook of few companies that prospects seem greater than for the US economy.

The poll made by Reuters Corporate showed that 64 percent of Japanese firms believe that the United States will continue to grow within its current momentum, while there are 19 percent who presumed that the country will further expand. The other 17 percent anticipates for a slackening growth. However, many respondents, including the manager, questioned the competence of the Trump administration in managing the main policy issues. The survey is done on August 30 until September 12, this concurred with the upward revision to U.S. GDP for Q2 which appeared to be higher than the strong consumer expenditure and business investment. Moreover, the poll started upon the arrival of Hurricane Harvey on Texas and the survey was finished when Hurricane Irma get into the shores of Florida. Even before the poll was published, experts downgraded forecasts for GDP but economic indicators showed stronger stance which led to further increase.

According to the survey conducted by the Reuters Corporate, there are 59 percent firms in Japan, with direct or indirect transactions with the US, stated that their business plans appeared to be running smoothly. But 33 percent claimed that there is quite delays and sluggishness while the remaining 8 percent are yet to review their plans.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 19, 2017

The euro-dollar pair remained almost unchanged as it stayed in the level 1.1953 under the 10-day moving average. On the other hand, the inflation came in at 1.5% which is lower the 2% target of the European Central Bank. Now, traders’ attention was turned to the Fed Reserve meeting on September 19 and 20, but there is no any expectations for the meeting. Moreover, the Fed had mentioned some ways in managing the bond purchase program. Contrarily, the Bundesbank assumes that growth will slow down in the second half of the fiscal year.

The EURUSD consolidated prior the meeting of the Federal Reserve which is scheduled tomorrow. The pair’s support hit the 1.1834 mark which is seen around the lows of the previous week. The resistance highlighted the region 1.2092 around the highs last week.

The momentum maintained a negative stance while the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator prints in the red with a descending trajectory, pointing to lower exchange rate.

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: September 15, 2017

The British pound moves sideways during the beginning of the Thursday session. This surged to the upper channel after the Bank of England hinted that there will be interest rate hikes soon.

Hence, the market will most likely proceed with buying on the lows and it may not be wise to short this pair for now. For long-term, the pair will try to reach the 150 handle and above. Selling will be difficult for this pair and the 145-level or lower will continue to support the market which gives a bit of a bullish pressure.

Disappointing Chinese Data Weighed on Asian Shares

On Thursday, Asian stocks were partly lower from its 10-year highs as Chinese data showed softer than the expected figures of the markets. On one side, the dollar remained unchanged prior the release of its inflation data later this day.

Fixed-asset investment in China, along with the retail sales and factory output came in lower, underlining some reports that the world’s biggest economy is slowly losing its strength due to rising borrowing costs.

The Aussie dollar is known to a liquid proxy for China-related tradings, but its gains also reduced, reaching 0.3 percent at $0.8006 followed by the robust data on employment.

The shares of MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific, excluding Japan, fell by 0.1 percent on the back of reaching its highest in 2007. After the sluggish data, Chinese stocks are currently in an unprofitable financial condition and gave up its earlier gains.

While Nikkei Japan slid by 0.2 percent and the broader TOPIX wiped off its two-year peak along with the weakening of the Japanese yen.

Additionally, KOSPI index of South Korea was up by 0.1 percent while the Australian shares had a 0.2 percent dipped.

CBA Issued $3 Bonds Despite Money-laundering Allegations

Bonds worth $3 billion was successfully issued by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) in the United States amid the money-laundering allegations against the biggest lender in the country.

The bank had it in three-parts and sold more cheaply than anticipated that increased the funds and garnered $5.9 billion orders as reported by the Reuters on Thursday morning. It is separated into three partitions, 10-year bonds worth $700 million, 5-year bonds worth $1.15 billion and 3-year bonds worth $1.15 billion stated by the IFR magazine. Following the sudden increase in the U.S. bond market, the demand surged up with scarcity in high credit rating as it is highly applied for.

During the CBA meeting with the investors last week, they were able to discuss if the money-laundering issue would affect raising of debt. The Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (AUSTRAC), a financial intelligence agency of the country, filed a lawsuit against the CBA and faces anti-money and counter terrorism financing laws. At the same time, they are also confronted with a separate examination from two regulatory companies and a possible legal action. The Australian banks lost 9 percent A$14.3 billion or $11.5 billion following the AUSTRAC case.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 14, 2017

The U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen rallied to the upper channel during the Wednesday session and there is an unabating buying pressure. The discussion on tax reform from the United States further worsens the situation since it came out earlier than expected. On the other hand, this is favorable for the greenback. This makes more U.S. companies more aggressive and in all likelihood boost the U.S. economy. On this condition, it is presumed that buyers will enter the market and attain the level of 111. If the market successfully breaks out, there is a potential for the price to move much higher. 

Drop of Oil Prices Due to the Hurricane Damages

Oil prices declined on Tuesday as an aftereffect of the Hurricane Irma as it weakened the demand as it counterbalances the restart of the refineries since the Hurricane Harvey. Despite the recovery of the refineries, the repercussion of cyclone Irma was less favorable of favorable for the oil market.

The global benchmark of Brent crude LCOc1 dropped by 35 cents to $53.49 per barrel at 08.47 GMT. On the other hand, the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1  declined by 30 cents at $47.77 a barrel.

The Goldman Sachs forewarned that there is a possibility for the demand to drop by 900,000 barrels per day for the month of September and 300,000 bpd in the succeeding month because of tropical cyclones.

Investors are also monitoring how the weather conditions could affect the inventories. The report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) is anticipated on Tuesday while the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publicize the results on Wednesday.

Projections from experts show that the inventory reports of crude stocks will increase by 2.3 million barrels for the week of September 8. Furthermore, the prediction for the refined commodities supply will most likely decline. Despite the present problem in oversupply in oil reserves, oil producing nations particularly the Saudi Arabia and Venezuela and Kazakh counterparts with the probability of extending its lengthen of production output over the March 2018.