Just one small piece of bad news around the 31st and we plunge. I know your chart shows a drop well before that but up until the 31st we are all on shaky ground, we have no chance of 'going to the moon' before that. After the 31st however is a completely different story.
Not that I enjoy quoting myself ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=397534.20) but to make the point: "Think about it. With less than two weeks until 31 January, don't you think that any sensible Chinese person wishing to throw in the towel and cash in would have already at least sold their Bitcoins? I mean, how long does it take to withdraw money from the exchanges over there? If it is anything like over “here” then usually 5-10 working days in the best cases. And with the apparent rush to withdraw, wouldn't a few prudent Chinese whales have dumped already to get to the front of the queue?" The 31 January is a smokescreen. People will wake up to that over the next few days. Well, I agree with you, but the seed has been sown and most people are holding back fiat until that date is over. FUD or not, the community are jittery about that date. I'm not of the opinion that the Chinese are waiting until the last moment to cashout, it's more likely the Chinese government will use that date to clarify their position and close down Huobi's new corporate bank account, or some equally bad news. How we ever thought a country like China would allow their currency to flow out of the country as anonymously as btc I don't know. They have huge corruption scandals going on at the moment, they are trying to clean up their act in a public way and btc allows people to 'hide' funds from the government, they will not in a million years allow that to happen. I'm not scared that the Chinese people want out, they are gamblers and the bitcoin dream is a very hard one to break - I'm scared the Chinese government are gearing up to make it very difficult for them to trade. Which, like it or not, has a great bearing on how we feel about btc in the west. |
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yeah yeah, i know honey badger and stuff... but there at least some similarities right now. No offense for the bulls , but you might consider this as a possibility  Quite a few people have pointed that out, I've got a stash of fiat waiting just in case. Just one small piece of bad news around the 31st and we plunge. I know your chart shows a drop well before that but up until the 31st we are all on shaky ground, we have no chance of 'going to the moon' before that. After the 31st however is a completely different story. |
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You can tell the bears are getting panicky when all the triangles come out! Pythagoras must be rolling in his grave!  You are becoming more and more manic by the minute T.Stuart. Having just read that it is possible to short Bitcoin on Bitfinex, I headed right over there to register and open an account. I then set about finding the option to short bitcoin. The Bitfinex site does not make this a very straightforward process, but I soon discovered the shorting option only to find that there is absolutely nobody interested in lending out Bitcoins to a short seller at this point in time. Now what does that tell you? (a big fkn queue of wannabe short-sellers and a distinct lack of mugs Bitcoin holders willing to loan out their Bitcoins to shorters chasing clear and obvious profits) You do know the lenders also risk losing their coins if the shorts don't pan out? This is not really true. Short positions are automatically closed well before there is danger of the total value of the trade dropping below the level of the money lent. The only case where a lender would be at risk would be in the case of a massive short/long squeeze where the positions can't be closed before price collapses +/- something like 40% in a minute period. They offer insurance to cover those extreme cases also. Ahh, didn't realise you could get insurance, I'll have to check that out. |
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You can tell the bears are getting panicky when all the triangles come out! Pythagoras must be rolling in his grave! You are becoming more and more manic by the minute T.Stuart. Having just read that it is possible to short Bitcoin on Bitfinex, I headed right over there to register and open an account. I then set about finding the option to short bitcoin. The Bitfinex site does not make this a very straightforward process, but I soon discovered the shorting option only to find that there is absolutely nobody interested in lending out Bitcoins to a short seller at this point in time. Now what does that tell you? (a big fkn queue of wannabe short-sellers and a distinct lack of mugs Bitcoin holders willing to loan out their Bitcoins to shorters chasing clear and obvious profits) You do know the lenders also risk losing their coins if the shorts don't pan out? |
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some bad news brewing in china ,it started with that early out of the blue dump to 5000, now its dumping hard and steady. My wild guess: Huobi corporate bank a/c removed from deposit option..This is pure FUD until proven otherwise.  This is the kind of thing I was thinking, Huobi's bank told / decided not to work with them. |
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Some China news we haven't heard yet? Houbi moving.
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You would hope that by the time 1 BTC = $10,000 USD the fluctuations or volatility in these 'early years' will have subsided. Otherwise, we could be seeing swings between $10,000 and $100,000 each month! The stress levels of BTC day-traders seem high enough as it is... what would happen then??
It would make it fail. Bitcoin can only work if it is stablilised. Noted. But then, at what would you consider the 'make-or-break' price? If volatility still continues >$10,000 then you are saying Bitcoin will fail? I don't really think the price matters so much as it being stable. If it rises too quickly people won't spend them, if it loses value often people will be scared to buy them. Remember most of us here are miners, early adopters or pure speculators. For the normal guy on the street volatility is one more headache he could avoid by simply using a debit card. It may still rise exponentially in this early phase but that is also purely speculation, it is just as likely to bounce between 600 and 1200 over the next 6 months while people / countries enter and exit the market. It could also be replaced by government developed cryto currencies where governments want the benefits of btc but sell their coins at rates pegged to the national currencies. Any scenario is just as likely as an other. |
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You would hope that by the time 1 BTC = $10,000 USD the fluctuations or volatility in these 'early years' will have subsided. Otherwise, we could be seeing swings between $10,000 and $100,000 each month! The stress levels of BTC day-traders seem high enough as it is... what would happen then??
It would make it fail. Bitcoin can only work if it is stablilised. |
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There is a live conference going on in China atm, they just said "Japanese public television: There is a question about bitcoin, as China's central bank on Bitcoin development in China how to treat? Do you think bitcoin will bring what risks? The Chinese government should prohibit the use of bitcoins it? 2014-01-15 12:22:09 Shengsong Cheng: About Bitcoin problems, the People's Bank and other five ministries jointly issued a notice, I would like to emphasize, first, we propose, is not the true meaning of bitcoin currency. Second, we prompt the Bitcoin risk and made the request. Bitcoin is a specific virtual goods. What I understand is called money? The first is the medium of exchange currency is widely accepted by society as a whole medium for the exchange of commodities. Monetary developments in the history of thousands of years, once the physical currency, the final form of physical currency is gold and silver. Like Marx said natural gold is money. The most essential characteristic of money is a medium of exchange and measure of value. Itself to be valuable, so it can be denominated. Since gold production is limited, it can not meet the growing social and economic development, so the gold standard collapsed. From the later seventies of last century, the world monetary credit system completely behind monetary credit system is a powerful force of national credit and forced the country, so we put the national currency, credit currency called legal tender. 2014-01-15 12:22:27 Shengsong Cheng: We take a look at Bitcoin, Bitcoin is not having the characteristics of these currencies? As far as I know, the vast majority of countries do not recognize the Bitcoin currency status. Currency in circulation in addition to the media, the value of scale functions, there is a very important function is denominated instruments. Bitcoin itself is not denominated in the currency, nor as the quote currency is possible. Plunged wild speculation "currency" can be used as currency it? Bitcoin transactions for good, good investment, you need to pay attention to its risk. People's Bank and the relevant departments will continue to focus on the movements of Bitcoin and associated risks, strengthen the monitoring, analysis, and guide the public to establish a correct concept of money and investment philosophy. Thank you. " I don't really know what this means. I used google translate on this page:- http://www.china.com.cn/zhibo/2014-01/15/content_31172976.htmI read the Chinese version and basically it says don't buy bitcoins, sodl all your bitcoins if you have any, and if you don't have any then shotr at maximum margin. Edit: Just wanted to say that my interpretation has been confirmed by sources. It is closer to "we the wise government understand things, the little people do not understand things and so need to be protected from risky things like bitcoin by us the wise government, gib dem to usssss" So they're basically saying you can buy bitcoins, but we advise you not to. Is that just something they have said before? Or is this new? Huobi hasn't reacted so I'm assuming this is nothing new? |
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There is a live conference going on in China atm, they just said "Japanese public television: There is a question about bitcoin, as China's central bank on Bitcoin development in China how to treat? Do you think bitcoin will bring what risks? The Chinese government should prohibit the use of bitcoins it? 2014-01-15 12:22:09 Shengsong Cheng: About Bitcoin problems, the People's Bank and other five ministries jointly issued a notice, I would like to emphasize, first, we propose, is not the true meaning of bitcoin currency. Second, we prompt the Bitcoin risk and made the request. Bitcoin is a specific virtual goods. What I understand is called money? The first is the medium of exchange currency is widely accepted by society as a whole medium for the exchange of commodities. Monetary developments in the history of thousands of years, once the physical currency, the final form of physical currency is gold and silver. Like Marx said natural gold is money. The most essential characteristic of money is a medium of exchange and measure of value. Itself to be valuable, so it can be denominated. Since gold production is limited, it can not meet the growing social and economic development, so the gold standard collapsed. From the later seventies of last century, the world monetary credit system completely behind monetary credit system is a powerful force of national credit and forced the country, so we put the national currency, credit currency called legal tender. 2014-01-15 12:22:27 Shengsong Cheng: We take a look at Bitcoin, Bitcoin is not having the characteristics of these currencies? As far as I know, the vast majority of countries do not recognize the Bitcoin currency status. Currency in circulation in addition to the media, the value of scale functions, there is a very important function is denominated instruments. Bitcoin itself is not denominated in the currency, nor as the quote currency is possible. Plunged wild speculation "currency" can be used as currency it? Bitcoin transactions for good, good investment, you need to pay attention to its risk. People's Bank and the relevant departments will continue to focus on the movements of Bitcoin and associated risks, strengthen the monitoring, analysis, and guide the public to establish a correct concept of money and investment philosophy. Thank you. " I don't really know what this means. I used google translate on this page:- http://www.china.com.cn/zhibo/2014-01/15/content_31172976.htm |
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"eToro will execute Bitcoin orders four times each day" Will be interesting how that pans out. |
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ok whos dumping on the btc-e wall, speak up.
lol
I can't believe that 850 wall on btc-e it's already down to 270, it was around 900 to start with? |
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Looks like 817 was the bottom on btc-e?
Dunno, this bounce is very weak. I'm thinking around 780 will be bottom. |
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BTW, bitcoinwisdom doesn't work anymore on my Chrome explorer; and on Firefox it's taking a lot of cpu, like if they were scrypt-mining or something ?
Do you guys have the same problem ?
Works fine in chrome for me. Fine for me too. |
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Well, lots of buying all around so either people haven't heard and they are taking advantage of lower pricing or the market doesn't see this as such bad news. http://hypron.net/bitcoinwisdom.htmlThanks for this link... saves me having 3 windows open. The only problem with that is the guy from bitcoinwisdom no longer gets to show his ads, which makes it worthwhile for him to continue to offer the service. |
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Have we got to the point ANY news will make it crash? 780 imo.
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I was just reading the trading view chart chatbox and I think the problem here is not for Chinese, they can still deposit. It's a problem for anyone who was using the exchange from outside China.
Still trying to find out what is going on. But this is very bearish.
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Wow, this market is crazy, we don't even know what the situation is really and people start panicking. Seems like good news to me but hey ho.
Chinese don't seem to like it and Huobi is driving most of the btc trade worldwide atm. I expect a large bounce back when everyone calms down.
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