i think we need to start a lot more discussions about all the bitcoin bubbles other than the 2013 one so that people can start seeing the bigger picture and stop thinking just because 2013 is the easiest thing to find on the charts there is no other point of reference when it comes to bubbles and bear markets after them.
Agreed, especially since few exchanges span the whole existence. At least Yahoo Finance charts go back to 2011 at least, otherwise it's archival Mt Gox data for the most part. What's surprising is how regular the bubbles are, or rather, how regular human nature is. Will this be Bitcoin's pattern forever or at what point in the adoption curve might it become more stable? Thanks for the contributions; added to list. |
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Old news but nice interviews concerning latest ETF attempt: VanEck, SolidX Team Up On Bitcoin ETFETF.com: How is this product different from the previous one SolidX filed for that was denied by the SEC?
Gallancy: The index is a big difference. Additionally, the price of the fund will be around $200,000, which is meant to alleviate any concerns that the SEC may continue to have around retail investors getting involved in bitcoin via an ETF package.
We’re optimistic that, over the long term, the SEC will change their minds about that, but in the short term, what we need to do is provide the SEC with a product that meets all of the specifications they require to get it over the finish line. If they're concerned about retail, we need to address that, and so we’ve done so.
The insurance aspect is something we had in our original filing, but it just wasn’t particularly well-covered. It’s a very important piece of the equation. ETF investors shouldn’t be subject to operational risk. Bitcoin is a bearer asset. If you didn’t have insurance around bitcoin, if something were to go wrong, if your bitcoin were lost or stolen or hacked—whatever it is—you’d have a big problem.
We have a syndicate of A-rated insurers that cover the corpus of the fund. Nobody else is doing that.
It’s this combination of things—the restructured index, the high share price and the insurance—that create a product the SEC will view positively. Hyland: 1st Bitcoin ETF Closer To RealityETF.com: How likely is it that we’ll see a bitcoin or cryptocurrency ETF approved anytime soon?
Hyland: I think we get them sooner rather than later. But I also think that if we don't see any action by the SEC in the next two months, we’ll jump to 2019 and beyond. I don't see the SEC going from red light to green light anytime near the midterm election. It’ll make them gun-shy.
I handicap the odds of a U.S. ETP in crypto as follows: 20% chance in 2018; 60% chance in 2019; and a 20% chance beyond 2019. |
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Up another $160 and we'll close the week in green. Or at least a doji.
Target: $6782 by Sunday.
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$6000 seems to be established as a fair bargain basement price by both bulls and bears and even miners apparently. We have achieved equilibrium price discovery, not just once, but like 5 times since October of last year, give or take $500. Anything below the bears generally agree is too greedy and the bulls consider a steal. But there is some serious Grade A manipulation going on. FUD is being slung around like monkey poop fresh outta Bill Gates and Warren Buffett's decrepit simian asses. Sometimes it sticks, sending Korean tourists, YouTuber potato heads, and Tweaking Twitterites screaming for the exits. The most damage this FUD has done since (dare I say it?) the "capitulation" on Feb 5 is 5-10% intraday trading. Around $500-600 intraday swings at most. Prior to Feb 5, we were seeing intraday swings as high as 30%. We're talking like $4500 in one day! Many days were well over 10%, equating to at least $1000 at the time. It's a freaking snooze fest in comparison. So far, the FUDsters have tried squirting manipulation FUD, sharting Tether FUD, and are currently honking for clearance while constipated with a big ol' meal of regulation FUD. Mt Gox has been hotboxing us with silent but deadly FUD for months now, but most of our olfactory bulbs have long since burned out. Hacked exchange FUD is the most regular of all, sustained by a healthy diet of shyster/ignoranus FUDfiber(tm). As much as everyone is watching, waiting, hoping for a clear sign from Satoshi himself "THIS IS THE BOTTOM", the truth is the FUDsters have run out of effective FUD. Even Roger Ver himself, the king of bullshit, a giant walking colon, can only shit so much, right? What more can the bears possibly fling at us? Am I missing some super potent 10x epic hangover evacuate the building and whatever you do don't light that match FUD? Something that would truly shake hodlers to their very core that we haven't already seen a dozen times? It's a fucking zoo out there this summer, peeps. Watch out for the monkey poop.  |
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...
You know how long it takes to simply double $10k in an index fund? About 7 years.
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I think you overestimate the returns of index funds. The resent surge in index fund investments has taken place during a bull market after the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore the returns are probably skewed to the upside, because they wouldn´t be as good during a bear market. I´d even argue that a future financial crisis could be worse due to ETFs, because they misallocate capital. Haha, yeah. I was being generous. Although ~6.5 years is how long it has taken the Dow Jones index to hit 100% returns today. From Jan 23, 2012 to today, to be exact. Bitcoin returns over the same period are 116,240%.  |
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These prices are such a gift, noobs just don't even know. It's prices like these that will fuel the next bull run with a whole fresh crop of speculators.
Back during the last bear market when we bottomed out around $200 from a high of $1200, who would have guessed people would next be whining about $6000 lows?
Boo fucking hoo. $6k coins.
BTFD, DCA, HODL. These terms haven't become cliche for no reason, fools.
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Kim Jong Un selling the last of his stash?  Buh-bye Kim, we'll miss you!  This is seriously pathetic volume compared to the last two times we approached these levels. I don't think the bears have a 4th bottom in them. We're still a few dollars short of the previous bottom, too. I'm imagining a thirsty fucking bear desperately trying to drink from the pool of liquidity below $6k. Someone push him in, so he can get properly rekt. P.S. Every single person who has bought at these levels since November of last year has profited shortly after. Only this time it's different, right? Right. |
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People thinking they sound pro as fuck and big time. "Buy the dip bro" which one? The One from 20k to 18k? Maybe the 18k to 16k? Or are we talking about the 16k to 14k dip? no wait. Maybe you are on about the 14k dip to 12k. Or is it the 12k dip to 10k? Nah I got it. You must be on about the 10k dip to 8k cause you pro right. Oh no. Now it's the 8k to 6k dip.
When the price eventually goes to $50k or $100k, then yep, all of those are the dip. The same thing happened when the price went from $1200 to $150. And every single fucker who bought the dip from $1200 to $1000 and $1000 to $800 and then $800 to $600 and $600 to $400 and finally $400 to $150 is still fucking smiling. If they were lucky they dollar cost averaged under $500. Think about it. They turned $10,000 into easily over $100,000 in two years. You know how long it takes to simply double $10k in an index fund? About 7 years. In two or three years, will you be one of those smiling fuckers? Or just another butt hurt bear who didn't buy the dip? Anyone who can DCA under $10k this time around will be a winner in two to three years. Buy the fucking dip, bro. All of them. |
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Price evolution from here...
I don't even give a f^ck anymore... Should we just start spreading fud like yours and blindly / accepting and endorsing this fud for the little guys to sell and the big whales to buy?? We would do that if we know for sure that the whales are hodlers. But I'm guessing you are betting on the wrong pony sometimes when thinking the whales know what they are doing, because I believe they don't!!! Whales are not hodlers!!!  Well, so far as I know, the Winklevii are still holding. At least we've got that. Whales have to weigh tax implications, too. If they've been holding a while and they are truly a whale, that's a 23.8% profit cut right off the top for US citizens. That means they have to weigh whether it will fall at least 23.8% to make it worth their while to buy back in with a lesser amount, or instead gamble on their intact hodlings growing even bigger at the next halvening. If they are smart about cashing in and offsetting a bit at a time, they can massively minimize tax obligations. Best laid plans, and all... |
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From what I understand, the CFTC probe is focusing on a very narrow window of time with a very few number of exchanges. They've chosen the very first January futures contract settlement date for exchanges with a heavy presence in the US: Bitstamp, Coinbase, itBit and Kraken. Bitfinex is already under CFTC investigation for ties to Tether.This is a shot across the bow. They will likely dole out some heavy handed punishment to the unlucky few to make an example and put the fear into everyone else under their jurisdiction. I can't but help see this as good news long term if not painful short term. This is all part of the legitimization process to clear the way for institutional money via regulated exchanges. If these few fintech startups can't clean up their act, the established, regulated brokers such as Fidelity, Goldman, and JP Morgan will be more than happy to pick up where they've left off. In fact, I think the CFTC is acting as the established good ol' boys' guard dog, clearing the way for Wall St. to take over. We are witnessing a changing of the guard. Exchange volumes are way down, but apparently OTC volumes are at record levels. We are shifting from small-time retail investors on unregulated, shadowy exchanges to regulated, institutional, and largely behind the scenes dealings involving a whole other level of capital. These Wall St. brokers and investors know how to bend government rulings to their liking. |
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MSM is clueless...there is no way yesterdays correction was caused by one tiny tiny exchange getting brute forced... sorry..I dont buy it. That would be like claiming it was caused by Tone's and Doug's bet. Nope... still not buying it.
Perhaps longs were getting out of control...and the market had to slam the door on some of them is one opinion. Some are saying its just a general technical correction..that the market was oversold. As in most things its usually a combination of events. Personal I think its was mostly due to panic selling over the CTFC news of a price manipulation probe coinciding with a general correction. Momentum gathers quickly once the tides shift.
For a little Straight Outta My Ass Non-TA: If you ignore the obviously manipulated Bart action (anything near-vertical on a 4 hr chart) the majority of background action appears surprisingly and overwhelmingly bullish. It's punctuated by relatively brief and steep bearish intervals. To me, the Bart action stinks to high heaven of whales still trying to cash out gracefully via OTC but being absolutely played by their OTC brokers. At the moment, whales are selling faster than the OTC market can absorb, leading to an overall downtrend, or at least sideways equilibrium. At some point, whalebears will run out of ammunition and the background uptrend will once again dominate. I suspect it's Wall St and institutions slurping up most of the whale poop. Several regulated brokers (Fidelity, Goldman, JP Morgan, etc) are on the brink of offering their own Bitcoin exchanges, and are probably in bed with the OTC brokers, accumulating, accumulating, accumulating. Of course, they're getting played by their OTC intermediaries, too, resulting in reverse Bart action and uptrends. I wouldn't be surprised if it's these Wall St guys crying foul in the first place and putting pressure on the CFTC to investigate unregulated OTC/futures manipulation and level the playing field before the flood gates open. This is causing further whale and OTC broker panic to hurry up and unload before regulators shine a light and scatter the roaches in their corner, too. Why OTC in the first place? Besides avoiding thinly traded exchange slippage, OTC brokers don't typically report anything to the IRS or other tax authorities. I suspect KYC/AML is much more lax as well, as long as you got the coin to play. Privacy comes at a price, though, and it's name is manipulation. Meanwhile, small fry retail guys are quietly accumulating, driving the bullish background action we see on the charts. Straight Outta My Ass  4 hr candles |
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Bitcoin DOWN 55% YTD
But STILL UP
155% at 1 YR
790% at 2 YR
6,175% at 5 YR
174,853% at 7 YR
Those figures really form a nice ponzi triangle when you factor in the user base and coin distribution  Similar Ponzi schemes factoring in user base and shareholder distribution:   Bitcoin currently ramping up in the first few percentiles Netflix (78% Institutional Investors, 5% Individual Stakeholders)  Apple (63% Institutional Investors, 1% Individual Stakeholders)  Amazon (60% Institutional Investors, 17% Individual Stakeholders)  Berkshire Hathaway (70% Institutional investors, 6% Individual Stakeholders)  Log scales |
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People that invest in the markets are not interested in the companies just the return on their investment.
For bitcoin to grow and achieve mass adoption a small group of fan boys isnt going to cut it and you need large inflows of cash.
Nope, no growth here. Gonna have to try harder fan boys: Bitcoin vs Dow Jones Return on Investment (%)Bitcoin DOWN 55% YTD But STILL UP 155% at 1 YR 790% at 2 YR 6,175% at 5 YR 174,853% at 7 YR No job growth either:
Startup Jobs Site AngelList Reports Doubling Of Crypto Jobs Since New YearNo MSM, institutional, or regulatory interest from the "big boys" this year either:Bitcoin Sees Wall Street Warm to Trading Virtual Currency May 7, NY Times Bitcoin is Seeing Unprecedented Institutional Interest for First Time in History May 8, News BTC LedgerX Launches First CFTC-Regulated Bitcoin Savings Accounts May 15, Forbes U.S. Regulator Demands Trading Data From Bitcoin Exchanges in Manipulation Probe June 8, Wall Street Journal CFTC COMMISSIONER: BITCOIN, CRYPTOCURRENCIES ARE NOT GOING AWAY June 10, Bitcoinist Institutional Hedge Fund Survey FundStrat, April 23  |
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They are upping their game. This is not just a Bart but a brand new formation which i shall name a Bart and Shoulders or in this case a reverse Bart and Shoulders. At the moment, one shoulder and part of the head have formed.  That's the infamous inverted ''wedding cake'' pattern That’s the “Where should we bury our fiat? Should we dig a little deeper?” pattern. |
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I'm really thinking of quitting. Too tired of this. if 11K will ever happen i will quit(
Still kicking my ass for not dumping $1M @ $11.5k on the last bounce  At what point will you be kicking your ass for not reinvesting the millions you already cashed out back into Bitcoin? Do you have that much more faith in fiat and your managed stock portfolio over Bitcoin these next few years? Are trade wars and nationalism getting you harder than choo-choos and rocket ships ever did? Bitcoin hashrate still climbing. Bitcoin price still up +150% from 1 year ago. SEC still being hammered with Bitcoin ETF applications. Fidelity, Goldman, JP Morgan still proceeding with Bitcoin trading options. The Commissioner of the US CFTC still calling Bitcoin an unstoppable technological revolution and modern miracle. Bitcoin is dead. Long live Bitcoin! |
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We'd be wise to remember that no exponential trend can continue indefinitely in a finite world. Sure it can... Exponentially up, exponentially down, exponentially up, exponentially down...  |
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Interesting little niche market but I just can’t help thinking how many more coins will be lost forever. I don’t like how the lifetime of the private key flash chip is “somewhere between 25 and 100 years.” Really?  Paper please. |
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Don't forget that hash rate being deployed now was likely ordered in Q1 18 or in the bubble. [...]
Google trends for Bitcoin looks pretty poor right now.
Exactly, Hashrate looks to be a lagging indicator due to equipment production time, with miners banking on future increases in price since they've already missed the last run up. I would argue that Google trends is also a lagging indicator, albeit on a much shorter time frame. Price has to increase first before interest is stoked enough to spur newcomers to search for bitcoin. There is less need for already indoctrinated bitcoiners to search, they already know where they want to go to buy/research/etc. I would further argue that price is a lagging indicator of fundamental analysis and good news. Whereas FUD is a nearly instantaneous indicator of price decreases, good news takes a while to build enough confidence to trigger buying much less FOMO. Going back to google trends, the more people already know about bitcoin, the less impact it will have on search engines. MSM has replaced a lot of the need to google, now that CNBC etc have a price ticker and reporting. You don't see the stock markets responding that much to google trends even in times of wild volatility. Bitcoin still drawing more searches than key stock market terms. In fact, stock market search spikes on google trends seem inversely correlated to price - they represent major sell offs! Careful what you wish for.  edit: Meanwhile, on Wall St: ‘Beware’: Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffett Double Down as Bitcoin CriticsClassic. Jamie "Do What I Say Not What I Do" Dimon, as JP Morgan continues to formulate crypto strategies. Warren "I only invest in what I understand" Buffet, who quite possibly just learned about Apple and maybe even the Internet sometime last year. |
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