Hello, I am conducting research on the historical date for Bitcoin and would like to provide the results data for discussion, how correctly am I reasoning? I need this data for various types of analysis, for example, like Gann, cyclic, etc. I do not take into account the registration date of the bitcoin.org website (08/18/2008) and the white paper (10/31/2008) and I start from the moment the Bitcoin emission began, namely from 01/03/2009, we have the first data on the sale from Martty Malmi ( https://twitter.com/marttimalmi/status/423455561703624704) where he created an exchange office with the name NewLibertyStandart on 10/05/2009 and already on 10/12/2009 he already made the first sale of 5050 bitcoins at a price of 5.02 - 1฿ ~ 0.00099406$ the NLS date in the webarchive ends on 03/02/2010 and the following data from the bitcoinmarket.com exchanger from the date (05/25/2010) to the mtgox date, further questions to the data I don’t have it, but there is no data between 03/02/2010 and 05/25/2010 and historical snapshots in the web archive from bitcoinmarket, which makes it difficult to confirm the date, maybe Has anyone seen NLS data between 03/02/2010 and 05/25/2010? in addition, I received from the blockchain and added to the chart the volumes of movements in the Bitcoin blockchain during the day, with the exception of rewards per block, and did not exclude returns, and we see that there were movements in 2009, we will not delve into address statistics and other details but let’s just visually analyze and try to guess whether any of these transactions could be real sales, if Martty Malmi could tell us a little about how many transactions there could have been during this period, for 2010 I have no questions, it shows not only an increase in movements, as well as a crazy bullrun when the price soared by 290% from a price of 0.00072 to 0.002828, I wonder what caused the price increase? In total we have with block 1 - 01/03/2009 NoNe - but I will put 0.0001 so that we have the first date defined, start NLS 05/10/2009 - 02/03/2010 https://web.archive.org/web/20091229132610/http://newlibertystandard.wetpaint.com/page/Exchange+Ratehttps://web.archive.org/web/20100129103612/http://newlibertystandard.wetpaint.com/page/Exchange+RateNoNe - but I will fill them with site data https://bitcoin.zorinaq.com/price/05/25/2010 bitcoinmarket start start mtgox 07/17/2010 Some pictures:     https://github.com/xpnkz/bitcoin_history_data/blob/main/transactions-btc-in-out-2009-2010.csvhttps://github.com/xpnkz/bitcoin_history_data/blob/main/btcusd1d-2009-2010-blk-vol.txtReposting this so people can see your photos since you are a newbie account. It’s interesting research you did. I also heard that the Liberty was the first bitcoin exchange and pretty crazy how someone bought 5050 BTC for only $5. It’s also interesting how this exchange launched in 2009, didn’t think it existed that early. At the time there was maybe only like a few thousand people who used bitcoin. |
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Yeah if you want to be successful at holding you need to avoid the news of crypto, especially from twitter. There are always bearish market reports and it’ll scare you into selling your crypto.
If you want this as a long term investment then you don’t need to read about crypto daily. The protocol will remain the same in a year or two . You don’t need to worry about not being able to access your bitcoins. Most upgrades are backwards compatible. So there is no need to stay current. Just log off and check back in a few years.
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I knew a few people from 2014-2015 or so. They said they will not sell their bitcoin until it goes to like $10,000. And I know that one guy ended up selling all of his when Bitcoin went to $600-700 during 2015-2016.
So it’s one thing to read someone’s post but it’s another thing how that individual actually sells their bitcoins. I am sure many of those posts were saying they will hold forever but usually bitcoin pumps a little, doubles or triples and they cash out their investment. Obviously if they knew how high it can go they would of held.
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Pretty sure these days, nobody is anti government. Or at least the majority of Bitcoin holders aren’t. If they were they wouldn’t of KYC on exchanges to buy and sell their crypto.
Most of the holders are probably nothing but speculators. They aren’t in it for the advances bitcoin can make for society, they are in it for the monetary gains. Many earlier adopters were different. But these days, everyone is getting into crypto to get rich, not go against the government.
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Yes the Solana blockchain is still experimental. If you do any type of coding you will even see that the main API is something such as “Solana main net beta”. They call it beta to mean that it’s still not a fully developed project.
If you use the network a lot, you will see it gets hick ups from time to time. There are times when it’s impossible to send a transaction no matter how large your fee is.
You don’t get these issues on ETH or BTC even those have higher fees.
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Well if the trader is actually good and they don’t have much income they can set up one of those trading services where other traders can copy them for a fee.
I think Bybit or Binance do this. If the trader can easily double his account every week for a couple of months then many will copy him. And those who trade larger position sizes will contribute to his fees.
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The chances of exchanges block that type of transfer is very low. They would never block it unless it was maybe stolen but if it’s a coinbase transaction which was mined by someone using his CPU back in 2010, it was most likely never moved and never stolen.
The proof is that it’s obviously his money and how he earned it was clear, no reason for the exchange to block it for suspicious reasons.
Like the above guy said, many can also use OTC if they don’t want it appearing on the order book. But it doesn’t make a difference since it’s moved and there’s already a record of the dormant wallets changing hands.
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If what he says is true, he makes money because he has experience and knows how to response when his Moving average method doesn’t work.
Those are lagging indicators and they don’t always work. They work great in a trending market. If the market always goes up or down, they work great. But they will destroy you when markets start to trade sideways.
It’s his experience why he makes good money, not his indicators.
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I used Polygon from time to time. Its primarily used as a L2 for Ethereum and it gained popularity when fees were high. From what I remember it has the lowest fees for transactions. I think you can send a regular transaction for less than a penny, so its great for making swaps or bridging.
The only issue is that it requires MATIC for gas. This is a problem if you have a new wallet and you only have ETH on it. Most other L2s all use ETH for this reason. Not all bridges can give you some spare MATIC gas to make your first swap. So you are left depending on a CEX to withdraw MATIC too.
But besides this small issue, its a great L2 like ARB and ZKSYNC.
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Well you can buy bitcoin now and wait a few months years for it to double or go at least 50% or so. But since you are only investing $200, you won't make much money. If you want to make large sums of money there is really no other way but by investing in small cap projects. Most of them will go nowhere or go bust but if you pick the correct one you can easily 10x your investment.
The trick is you need to do research. Don't follow what is posted on the forum or twitter because it could be by shills. Just research many projects and what do you think will still exist 1 year from now or 5 years from now. There are alot of promising projects at the moment and you can invest in a couple and make a decent gain if it catches on.
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I don't think either of my folks would want to invest in Bitcoin. However if they actually were interested I would persuade them to invest in the Bitcoin ETFs which were just launched. Sure its not keeping actual bitcoins in your self custody but with how old my folks are they would get scammed if they kept it on a Binance account. There are way too many fake emails, phishing links, etc that old people can easily get fooled and get their crypto stolen.
If you buy the Bitcoin ETFs you don't need to worry about it. Its on your brokerage account which is very secure and hackers don't generally target any online brokerages because everything is reversible and they can't really steal anything. This is one of the few ways why the Bitcoin ETFs are great for adoption because the elderly don't really understand self-custody but they can rely on the Bitcoin ETFs like Blackrock IBIT.
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Yes satoshi and anyone who had coins on their wallet on Aug 2017, can access their Bch coins and sell them. Satoshi could sell all his BCH but by doing so it would create chaos because many BTC holders would be nervous that he might sell large amounts of his coins and cause market to crash.
There is speculation that he holds maybe a million or so bitcoins, this is a huge amount. So if he started to actually move any of those early coins, it would cause manic and many people would just sell their investment out of fear.
It’s best if they are never moved.
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Another thing you need to realize is that the launch of the etf couldn’t of caused bearish activity because the AUM was pretty much nothing.
Even if some large whale wanted to short bitcoin, there would have to be AUM out so they can be lent out and shorted. There isn’t even options out yet for some whale to buy tons or puts to profit off bitcoin going down.
Like I said a few posts back, it was just a coincidence that it dumped on that day.
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Right now ETH BTC is around 0.0523 or so. However this can change if the ETH etf is approved in May or so. If the etf is approved then you will make more holding ETH than BTC.
BTC is leading now but usually before it tops, some money goes into alts like ETH and it excels faster than bitcoin. Then it goes down to other alt like LTC. Eventually it tops and everything starts to decline.
So the smart move is to sell BTC when you see it topping and then sell the alts like ETH and go into stables.
I am pretty sure it won’t be approved in May. There is way too much regulation in this area and the “What if ETH is a security “ keeps coming up. I just don’t see them approving the etf in May; almost nobody expects it to be approved. I think eventually it will be approved but it’ll be like the bitcoin etf, where it took pretty much almost a decade from the first rejection to the first approval. |
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If you check those charts which shows old coins moving for the first time, it shows you that long term holders sell in one or two scenarios.
First one is when there is a huge crash. Usually some exchange hack or that Covid dump. If you look at those charts you can see some old holders got scared and took some profits.
Second time is when we make fresh new ATH. Whenever a new ATH is made there is always some old coins being sent on the blockchain for the first time. Usually they sell very early, such as in 2017, many sold at $3000 but we peaked at $20000.
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It’s definitely lack of knowledge and not lack of capital. Especially when it comes to the crypto markets. You go to any futures exchange and you can have up to 100x leverage. So if you know what you are doing, even with $100 capital you can have $10,000 positions and you can easily double or triple your stack in a few trades. Lack of capital is not the problem.
It’s that people have no idea how to trade. It’s not easy. People have been doing it for decades and they still can’t make a profit. Especially if they want short term gains. Most of those gurus that you watch on YouTube, they just fake their videos and aren’t as successful as you think. Trading is extremely difficult and not for most people.
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Most people in North America live under a “debt is the American dream” and consider debt to be good. They don’t teach anything about debt in high school. And this is the reason why so many people become buried in debt as they age.
Look at how many people are paying over $1000 a month for a car loan, this is crazy. $1000 a month used to be a mortgage but now people are paying that much for depreciating assets with interest.
And it can easily spiral out of control and you can forget about saving anything when you are this deep in debt.
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I think the only thing this is good for is transferring between exchanges. But the adoption for lightning is so low, I don’t see it being used heavily, at least for the time being.
Many people like me have moved on to ETH L2 networks such as ARB or Polygon. It’s cheap and fast and you can do large token swaps with little slippage and fees.
This should of been done 5 years ago or so and maybe the adoption would be higher than it is today.
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They again can’t seem to get inflation under control. The CPI looked like it was stalling and would of achieved the 2% target but it’s been ticking up the last few months. They blame it on the cost of energy but we all know that is not the only factor.
And you got the government who can’t stop printing money. And you got the federal reserve which has to make the tough decision on whether to lower rates or not. Lower rates and inflation goes up or leave rates where they are since it’s not doing anything to combat inflation.
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I think it’s more positive than negative.
You reach a larger audience when they can simply buy it on the stock exchange or they can call their broker and buy some bitcoins thru the etfs. Before you had to deal with CEX which was a pain and took too long to set up.
There is also more liquidity. So one large whale won’t be able to manipulate the market as before. There is going to be less volatility so no more days where bitcoin has 20% swings in price.
Negative is that there is more regulation. Which can be seen on how exchanges are strict with their users.
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