|
The US in scheduled for problems next. We will a housing collapse, banks going under. Inflation isn't nearly under control and won't be for a long time. We will see problem in the market and when the techs go down they take BTC with it. Sure ETF's are coming but those will only have an impact if investor put money in them.
Lot's of bad news coming. Biden hasn't finished fucking up America. If Newsome get's elected god help us all. Blood in the streets.
|
|
|
|
|
Going to highly depend on your area. For instance I live in a town of about 110,000. A cupcake shop opened up and it didn't last a year, too specialized for smaller population. The one in the big city appears to be thriving.
My next biz will be something I do alone and at home. Too many problems with storefronts, employees and partners.
-Property management.
-Real estate
-CPA
-Hand crafted patio furniture.
-Pool cleaning.
-pressure washing
Personally I wouldn't try to sell things that one can get online through Ebay or Amazon. In my mind that would be a service business.
EDIT: I would consider just getting a second job and invest a portion in BTC. Building a small company and servicing a loan is a huge burden, almost insurmountable. IF anyone gives you a loan the rates are going to suck.
|
|
|
|
Encrypting your seed phrase and storing it in a cloud storage that you trust and you know isn't going anywhere very soon, like Google Drive, isn't really a bad idea considering it won't be vulnerable to getting lost forever due to natural disasters that you've mentioned because as you said, they don't come after a warning and even if you get a warning sometimes, you will still not be able to actually do something about your seed phrases that quick.
If you have them encrypted and stored somewhere safe online, you won't need to worry about them at all if, unfortunately, you had to go through something tragic like your house getting washed out by flood or earthquake hitting it really hard and the only thing that might survive is you.
I have been thinking about this exercise for a bit. The worst situation is me losing it physically or access like "hey the house you yous stashed in foreclosed" Encrypted file on a service seems like a great idea. These services do all the hard work for you, multiple redundant locations, back ups and I can log in anywhere and retrieve what I need seems to have more utility. |
|
|
|
|
The real take away here is don't get married! Women have zero accountability and the law is on their side. Would you trust your life to an airplane that had a 65% failure rate? (US)
|
|
|
|
|
It's not a huge dump, geesh. 500 million against a 500 billion market cap timed out over weeks.
Peoples reaction to the news I would suspect be greater than the actual event.
Buy
|
|
|
|
The biggest security is keeping your mouth shut and not becoming a target. The larger amount the bigger the target followed by the company you keep. If you have a good amount of money have multiple hardware wallet of different architecture in different places. Maybe even have a sacrificial one to be found. I'm 52yo and have seen a lot of shady stuff go down. Best friends and family smell money (blood in the water) will screw you over in a jiffy. Things seem great until you find out your wife is screwing your best friend you trusted with something such a seed phrase and cleans you out for a European vacations with your wife. I guess my point is, however you do it is up to you and security risk you can tolerate. My biggest risk is losing the phrase, I don't enough money to be very interesting or would be terrible loss. I hope to have that problem someday  I think you have taken the wrong meaning of the OP's post, he is concerned about natural disasters that could lead to the destruction of seed phrases saved in physical form. And you are talking about relationships. I understood your Point of view but that's not what we are talking about here. Because that's another discussion to talk about. And the answer to that discussion is so simple which is to never trust anybody else with your private keys or seed phrase. Just trust yourselves. You have taken the discussion to another level, Like why did you bring up the affair of a wife with a friend who wanted to go for a trip using the money that (someone) has shared the Key with you? That seems a little bit confusing. But, ignoring it and coming to the main query. I can say, we should prefer to save the seed phrase in some form of necklace and or in any type of form that remains near to us, like a necklace or a band. And that band or necklace should be waterproof. Because in the fire of Hawaii, people jump into the sea to save their lives. So, if unfortunately, someone got stuck in such situation then he/she could save their life by jumping into the see. My point is that securing your phrase with friends and family is a huge risk, huge. Sure keep it somewhere, but only the owner (you) knows, don't make it desirable by talking about. Just recently a crypto mogul got dismembered, I got a feeling someone was looking for something no? It's not just physical security but how you manage yourself. Don't make yourself a mark no matter how you choose to store your seed. |
|
|
|
The biggest security is keeping your mouth shut and not becoming a target. The larger amount the bigger the target followed by the company you keep. If you have a good amount of money have multiple hardware wallet of different architecture in different places. Maybe even have a sacrificial one to be found. I'm 52yo and have seen a lot of shady stuff go down. Best friends and family smell money (blood in the water) will screw you over in a jiffy. Things seem great until you find out your wife is screwing your best friend you trusted with something such a seed phrase and cleans you out for a European vacations with your wife. I guess my point is, however you do it is up to you and security risk you can tolerate. My biggest risk is losing the phrase, I don't enough money to be very interesting or would be terrible loss. I hope to have that problem someday |
|
|
|
|
As someone mentioned earlier they can bake the desired outcome what the client (GOVT) is looking for really. The govt literally has unlimited resources and can bury an innocent person.
What if someone hasn't a single nefarious intent but just pumps 1-2 K through a mixer just natural geek curiosity and put it back in their wallet and the whole wallet get's seized or your coins marked? Many people just want to be anon with no criminal intent. If your hiding you must be doing something wrong right?
|
|
|
|
|
Well been through two divorces. Over 65% or marriages end in divorce (US) and 90% of the time it's woman who initiates it. There is no real upside for a modern US man to get married, It's all liability. I have ALOT of friends get blindsided by a wife draining accounts, running up debt, not paying taxes and such. I'm not saying hide allot of money but think it's wise to have a reasonable war chest. Not even divorce maybe something you get your assets frozen and you don't have gas or food money laying round..
|
|
|
|
|
I did another were I would sell at above 10% (50% into the buy pool and 50% profit) back down to 3200 and would buy back at 33% of the sell amount per month below 5%. It came out 39% profit. It pays to manage your money with a formula and not emotion.
|
|
|
|
just taking the latest numbers of the 32week DCA example a few posts ago..
heres the numbers i got
2021
Jan $29,374.15 100 0.00340435
Feb $33,573.18 100 0.00297857
Mar $49,631.24 100 0.00201486
Apr $59,095.81 100 0.00169217
May $57,828.05 100 0.00172926
Jun $36,684.93 100 0.00272591
Jul $33,572.12 100 0.00297866
Aug $39,974.89 100 0.00250157
Sep $48,847.03 100 0.00204721
Oct $48,116.94 100 0.00207827
Nov $61,004.41 100 0.00163923
Dec $57,229.83 100 0.00174734
2022
Jan $47,686.81 100 0.00209702
Feb $38,743.27 100 0.00258109
Mar $44,354.64 100 0.00225456
Apr $46,281.64 100 0.00216068
May $38,469.09 100 0.00259949
Jun $29,799.08 100 0.00335581
Jul $19,269.37 100 0.00518958
Aug $23,314.20 100 0.00428923
Sep $20,127.14 100 0.00496842
Oct $19,312.10 100 0.00517810
Nov $20,485.27 100 0.00488156
Dec $16,967.13 100 0.00589375
2023
Jan $16,625.08 100 0.00601501
Feb $23,723.77 100 0.00421518
Mar $23,646.55 100 0.00422895
Apr $28,411.04 100 0.00351976
May $28,091.57 100 0.00355979
Jun $26,819.97 100 0.00372856
Jul $30,590.08 100 0.00326903
Aug $29,675.73 100 0.00336976
total 0.10489273
which if sold in september 1st
Sep $25,811.00 0.10489273 = $2810.63
so $3200 input $2810 output = $390 loss
lump
Jan $29,374.15 1066.66 0.03631288
Jan $47,686.81 1066.66 0.02236803
Jan $16,625.08 1066.66 0.06415969
total 0.12284060
which if sold in september 1st
Sep $25,811.00 0.12284060 = $3170.64
so $3200 input $3170 output = $29.36 loss
Good stuff brother, we are ending up in the same place, there is no magic combo I've been putting together "policy" trading on this data and ended up 39% at 32 weeks. My just here is trying to get out of emotional trading and strait up number. Past performance dictates future performance. |
|
|
|
You have tried your best to explain things, but my dear friend, you failed to do so. Because the data that you entered might have taken some effort from your side, that effort went to waste because this data with specified dates can be gotten from any DCA calculator. You can search on Google for DCA calculators, and on the top 5 you will find some of the best ones. I have tried three or four. The point is that those calculators show data comparisons too.
Like how much profit you could make by doing a lump sum and how much profit you could make by doing DCA. And if we use way too old dates, like 2015, then we will see that DCA has the most benefit, but still, most of the time, the Lump Sum option will show you the highest profit on some DCA calculators.
PS: I think you forgot to mention the total amount of profit that you will make by doing DCA, or I think I missed it out, like you said 12,705.00 at the end but did not mention what it is. So.
Yeah I know there are DCA cals, but Excel import the data automagically along with other data that I have on hand. Well, the 12,705.00 would be net, minus the 3200 so 9505 profit. That was kind of a lucky number to hit, no one could have "predicted" it. Man I really don't want to go too far back in time, I just don't feel it represents the now and the future. Those huge **X days are gone for BTC. But good money to be made. |
|
|
|
But wouldn't that be cooking/manipulating the data? It might be "immature/growing years" in your own opinion, but it's still real and actual data no matter how your opinion says about it.
Not really, things and times change I don't think that early data represents the current situation and how things will be moving forward. When I exclude the early data those projected big numbers go way down what I think would be a more accurate of things to come. While not popular it's better to err on the conservative side. |
|
|
|
|
Sorry, it was 3am and couldn't sleep so I fiddled with this, it's 32 weeks not 36, oops. I am an excel hack at best, I really need to take a course and learn it's true power.
LUMP
Lump sum $3200 (32 weeks worth) 1/21/2023
Sale date 8/1/2023 BTC of $3232.84
DCA
32 weeks DCA AT $100 per month
2021
Jan $29,374.15 0.0034
Feb $33,573.18 0.0029
Mar $49,631.24 0.002
Apr $59,095.81 0.0017
May $57,828.05 0.00173
Jun $36,684.93 0.0027
Jul $33,572.12 0.0029
Aug $39,974.89 0.0025
Sep $48,847.03 0.002
Oct $48,116.94 0.002
Nov $61,004.41 0.0016
Dec $57,229.83 0.0017
2022
Jan $47,686.81 0.002
Feb $38,743.27 0.0025
Mar $44,354.64 0.0022
Apr $46,281.64 0.0021
May $38,469.09 0.0026
Jun $29,799.08 0.0034
Jul $19,269.37 0.0051
Aug $23,314.20 0.0042
Sep $20,127.14 0.005
Oct $19,312.10 0.0051
Nov $20,485.27 0.0048
Dec $16,967.13 0.0058
2023
Jan $16,625.08 0.006
Feb $23,723.77 0.0042
Mar $23,646.55 0.0042
Apr $28,411.04 0.0035
May $28,091.57 0.0035
Jun $26,819.97 0.0037
Jul $30,590.08 0.0032
Aug $29,675.73 0.0033
Input 100 week 32w $3,200
total BTC 0.10353 $3,072.32
profit (-$127.68)
This is an exercise of course, it depends on when you get in right? And out? Clearly one can't say that DCA is the best way automatically. But most of us don't earn or have meanifull lump sums and we put in what we have on hand. We also can't go back in time and change and cherry pick decisions. Looking at this, I think it a good idea to lightly manage your money on policy (example: At 133% above blended avg I will sell to 100% then rebuy in at 85%). Stick to a formula not what your emotional desired outcome is.
|
|
|
|
|
In the US we have much cooler Cocaine Bear.
Checkout the Netflix series on Chernobyl, it links to others about the wolves and people that are still living in the area.
|
|
|
|
|
No it's just my crappy cut and paste from excel
I was showing if you would have lumped at first of any Jan 1 from 2019 - 23 what that amount would be at 8/1/2023.... It not cumulative, sorry.
I wanted to go back far enough to get an election and a halving in there. Looking at it now I want to redo it so it formats better. I'm also thinking of omitting 2018 and 2019, those were immature growing years, I don't think they are indicative how things are going forward really. redux coming when I some time
|
|
|
|
|
Lump some purchase at the first of the month from Jan 1, 2019 to August 1 2023, 56 weeks hence $5600 dollars. This is so I can apples to apples with DCA. I know it's very aggregate and course data. 2021 and 2022 to current 8/23 would suck. Sure more finite data is cool (I have it) but this is an exercise. We don't have the luxury of looking at history and saying oh I woulda/shoulda/coulda done this blah blah blah. I could do it on the weekly or daily and it looks way different for sure, but I ain't giving it away, not sorry. What is really cool isn't some head and shoulders and falling wedge crap, It's a added the news in another column that affected it.
$5600 number is stems from 56 weeks.
Lump
2019 BTC Lump BTC PUR Final amount at 8/2023
Jan $3,843.52 $5,600 1.45 BTC $43,237.47
Using August 1 2023 as the sale date
Aug $29,675.73
DCA
Now using DCA at 100 per month
Month BTC on 1st @100permonth
2019 BTC
Jan $3,843.52 0.026
Feb $3,487.95 0.0286
Mar $3,859.58 0.0259
Apr $4,158.18 0.024
May $5,402.70 0.0222
Jun $8,564.02 0.0116
Jul $10,583.13 0.009
Aug $10,399.67 0.0096
Sep $9,757.97 0.01
Oct $8,343.28 0.012
Nov $9,261.10 0.0107
Dec $7,424.29 0.0134
2020
Jan $7,200.17 0.0138
Feb $9,392.88 0.0106
Mar $8,562.45 0.0116
Apr $6,606.78 0.0151
May $8,864.77 0.0112
Jun $10,167.27 0.0098
Jul $9,228.33 0.0108
Aug $11,759.59 0.0085
Sep $11,970.48 0.0083
Oct $10,619.45 0.0094
Nov $13,737.11 0.0072
Dec $18,803.00 0.0053
2021
Jan $29,374.15 0.0034
Feb $33,573.18 0.0029
Mar $49,631.24 0.002
Apr $59,095.81 0.0017
May $57,828.05 0.00173
Jun $36,684.93 0.0027
Jul $33,572.12 0.0029
Aug $39,974.89 0.0025
Sep $48,847.03 0.002
Oct $48,116.94 0.002
Nov $61,004.41 0.0016
Dec $57,229.83 0.0017
2022
Jan $47,686.81 0.002
Feb $38,743.27 0.0025
Mar $44,354.64 0.0022
Apr $46,281.64 0.0021
May $38,469.09 0.0026
Jun $29,799.08 0.0034
Jul $19,269.37 0.0051
Aug $23,314.20 0.0042
Sep $20,127.14 0.005
Oct $19,312.10 0.0051
Nov $20,485.27 0.0048
Dec $16,967.13 0.0058
2023
Jan $16,625.08 0.006
Feb $23,723.77 0.0042
Mar $23,646.55 0.0042
Apr $28,411.04 0.0035
May $28,091.57 0.0035
Jun $26,819.97 0.0037
Jul $30,590.08 0.0032
Aug $29,675.73 0.0033
TOTAL 0.42813 12,705.00
|
|
|
|
Also keep in mind a good potion of that power is not for mining but for cooling.
I am unaware of any air conditioned farms of scale in Texas. I am aware of forced air and passive cooling via water wall much like a swamp cooler. Some water pumps as % are a small fraction of consumption. They are very unlike a traditional datacenter. |
|
|
|
|
Well an election is coming up (US) and it's time roll out covid again on the brink of WWIII with Russia (yet another proxy war like Cuba/farc, Vietnam, Afg now Ukraine). China is a wild card. Who knows, play it safe whatever that is now.
Bitcoin is world available but it's tightly linked to the US economy because that's where the money is. Enter the BRICS 11 from stage right and partially give the petro dollar a run? Dunno.
Lots of variables in play me thinks bigger than betting on a halving.
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
