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121  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) on: September 28, 2013, 04:51:53 PM
Do you mind transferring 24 shares or is that too small of an amount deprived? Thanks in advance!

Everyone is allowed to do 1 redemption - even if it was only 1 share of PURCHASE (or 1 each of MINING+SELLING).  So anyone who wants to cash out can.  You'd need to do the math yourself to work out if it's better just to sell into orders on the market (if you have PURCHASE the bot still runs to convert them to MINING/SELLING).

Do remember I cant't cash out unmatched MINING or SELLING (it would break there being the same number of each in circulation).
122  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) on: September 28, 2013, 04:31:31 PM
BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   570.6502294
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    317.05000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9    203.64459670
Just-Dice Balance    153.86136722
TOTAL ASSETS    1,335.91619333
   
Outstanding MINING   183750
Outstanding SELLING   183750
Outstanding PURCHASE   14397
Effective Units   198147
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   148,819,200
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00001690
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00084483
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00168966
365 days (Buyback)    0.00616724
405 days (IPO)    0.00684311
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.00675862
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.00692759
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,332.56819060
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.00672515
Days Dividend Post Div   398.02
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,332.56819060
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.00672515

-----------

NAV/U    0.00672515
NAV/U Excluding Ciphermine    0.00512507
Ciphermine per unit    0.16000747
Units per Ciphermine    6.24970825

Note that there IS actually a much lower number of PURCHASE/M+S Pairs that can be redeemed with very little waste.  25 gives pretty much exactly 4 CIPHERMINE.B1 - so all multiples of 25 are as optimal as you can get below 6249.
123  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) on: September 28, 2013, 03:54:59 PM
BTC-TC is down at present (getting xcoind errors) - so dividend and report will be delayed until burnside fixes it (dividend hadn't been scheduled yet - was just about to do it - but even if it had it would fail).

I have one redemption to do before that as well (so that report is accurate).  First got the error message trying to send the BTC for that redemption - then whole site died on me.
124  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTC-TC] Virtual Community Exchange [WINDING DOWN] on: September 28, 2013, 03:48:40 PM
Getting :

Error:
Xcoind backend failure at 135

When trying to transfer funds.

EDIT:  Now getting it on all pages.
125  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: September 28, 2013, 06:55:53 AM
Investor lowRisk: 10 000 BTC @ 0.25%, Investor highRisk: 10 000 BTC @1%.

Plan A: my Assumption which is actually flawed.
Plan B: GOB's implementation.
Plan C: An Alternative that is slightly modified version of GOB's.

Computation: A - difficult
B: Actually quite simple.
C: A bit more difficult than B.

Max Profit:
A: 25 + 100 = 125
B: 0 + 100 = 100
C: 25 + 100 = 125

Case 1: Bet 0.25% of house roll.  Bets 50 BTC @ 49.5%
A: LowRisk = ±10, HighRisk = ±40
B: LowRisk = ±25, HighRisk = ±25
C: LowRisk = ±25, HighRisk = ±25
A isn't exactly fair for risk-averse investors.  They're okay with risking 25 BTC.

Case 2: Bet 100 BTC @49.5%
A: LowRisk = ±20, HighRisk = ±80
B: LowRisk = ±0,  HighRisk = ±100
C: LowRisk = ±25, HighRisk = ±75

Case 3: Bet 125 BTC @49.5%
A: LowRisk = ±25, HighRisk = ±100
B: Bet too high
C: LowRisk = ±25, HighRisk = ±125
B - Without lowRisk helping out, the bet can't go as high.
Note for C that low risk can only win up to 25 btc.

Great summary.

It is true that with scenario B you don't get as high of a max profit. I knew that going in and I don't see it as a negative-- I think investors should be paid fairly/what makes sense/etc., and max profit will be what it'll be. The goal is not necessarily to maximize max profit, after all.

Despite that I see the value in your scenario C. However, I think what I posted a couple posts above still stands. In Case 3, without investor HighRisk being willing to risk 100BTC on each roll, site Max Profit would have been 25, and that bet might never have been made. Thus, LowRisk is profiting, or benefiting, or deriving value, from risk Highrisk was willing to provide.

However, now that I write that out, I'm realizing that is true of this site in general, in concept: the reason my tiny investment is able to profit is because a bunch of other people have invested an additional 40kbtc that draws bettors to the site.... hmmmm. I'm stumped.

Can I ask you a favor? Could you make a Case 4: Bet 110 BTC @49.5%? Specifically for Plan C? i.e. would LowRisk make 10 or 25 btc?

Scenario B makes no sense - as the low-risk investors aren't adding anything.  The high risk ones can cover all of the low bets anyway - so the low-risk are leeching profits without adding anything to max-bet.  And if there's a lot more low-risk than high-risk then you end up with choosing high-risk not making any difference (try it with 20k low-risk and 5k high-risk to see what I mean).

And not sure how case A isn't fair for low-risk because they're willing to risk 25 BTC.  High-risk are willing to risk 100 BTC.  Both are risking the same percentage of their maximums.
126  Economy / Securities / Re: ASIC.COOP ASIC MINERS COOPERATIVE on: September 28, 2013, 01:07:28 AM
People still invested in this after it turned out he'd lied about what had happened with the cash in the bond he issued, stopped paying dividends and then refused to discuss it further on the forums?

When someone scammed one security it's generally not a good idea to invest in another one they run.
127  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) on: September 27, 2013, 10:02:43 PM
Deprived how do I redeem my measly 43 shares of Purchase for said shares in Ciphermine? Do I just transfer the shares to your btctc acount? I just want to make sure I don't mess up and end up wasting more of my money.
Edit: Hmm I noticed that at the current redemption rate I would only get about 73.217 percent of my investment back. I guess I am just going to have to stick around, which in a way does make me happy as I do really like how well managed Deprived has been.

Even if you sold the ciphermine into bids at 80% of their face value im sure youd still get back 90%+ of your investment when you add in the dividends (which are primarily a return of capital rather than sharing of profits).  And yes youd just send them to the btctc account DeprivedMining then wait - im at the pub at moment so wont be processing any until I get home (or tomorrow morning depending how much I drink).
128  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: September 27, 2013, 07:55:14 PM
Has anyone else noticed since we gone to 0.25% variance is way down and profits way up?

That's like saying "Has anyone noticed since we turned the heater on that the temperature has stopped changing but it's got a lot warmer".

Profits going way up is just as much variance as profits going way down.
129  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) on: September 27, 2013, 04:10:27 PM
BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   591.2501794
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    322.40000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9    203.64459670
Just-Dice Balance    153.86136722
TOTAL ASSETS    1,361.86614334
   
Outstanding MINING   187094
Outstanding SELLING   187094
Outstanding PURCHASE   14397
Effective Units   201491
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   148,819,200
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00001690
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00084483
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00168966
365 days (Buyback)    0.00616724
405 days (IPO)    0.00684311
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.00675862
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.00692759
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,358.46163851
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.00674205
Days Dividend Post Div   399.02
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,358.46163851
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.00674205

----

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   587.8449815
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    322.40000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9    203.64459670
Just-Dice Balance    153.86136722
TOTAL ASSETS    1,358.46094544

NAV/U    0.00674204
NAV/U Excluding Ciphermine    0.00514197
Ciphermine per unit    0.16000715
Units per Ciphermine    6.24972084

First part is the usual report, 2nd part is the new status and new pricing for redemptions.

You'll notice a 1 satoshi difference in NAV/U between the two - that's due to the spreadsheet for the normal report working at more than 8 decimal places, so it works as though dividends were paid with a higher precision. 
130  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) on: September 27, 2013, 03:15:59 PM

Here's the relevant numbers:

NAV/U    0.00675889
NAV/U Excluding Ciphermine    0.00515887
Ciphermine per unit    0.16000231
Units per Ciphermine    6.24990987

Note that this is slightly different to the numbers I gave when I originally posted this proposal.  There are two differences:

1. I'll be rebuying at 100% of the cash part not 99%.
2. In my earlier post on the topic I'd used 36031 as the number of bonds when it's actually 36061.

If you send X PURCHASE (or X MINING + SELLING) then you will receive the following:

X * NAV/U Excluding Ciphermine (0.00515887)
X * Ciphermine per unit    (0.16000231) rounded DOWN

I've also shown the Units per Ciphermine (6.24990987) so you can easily see what the optimal quantities to send are - multiples of 625 mean you take no loss basically.  You can play around with those numbers and work out what's best for you - if you actually believe that degree of effort is warranted to save at most .01 BTC (by redeeming fairly optimal amounts then selling the rest into the market).


I think this is supposed to be .00160002, otherwise it sounds good to me.

It's the number of ciphermine bonds we have for each PURCHASE (or MINING+SELLING).
You're looking at the VALUE of the ciphermine bonds - there's 100 bonds per BTC.  But it's bonds I'm sending not BTC so the number of them is what matters - and my number is the correct one.

For each PURCHASE or MINING/SELLING pair you get .16 of a ciphermine bond, which is WORTH .0016 BTC at face value.
131  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTC-TC] LTC-ATF.B2 (Bond paying 0.05% per day interest) on: September 27, 2013, 02:07:51 PM
I still own 101 LTC-ATF.B2 contracts on btct.co. Any chance I can get my money back for those? Or are they worthless now?

I paid out full face value on them by dividend days ago - check your dividend history.

You'll have a dividend there of .01 BTC each.

I did it by dividend rather than buyback to save you (and me) the transaction fee.
132  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) on: September 27, 2013, 01:31:14 PM
I am glad the CL loan worked out fine. Do you have any opinion on how the Ciphermine bond deal will work out? Is it likely to move onto a different exchange and become liquid?

I've sent you my Sellings and Minings... Thanks!

I expect Ciphermine.B1 to either relist and become liquid or to be bought out.  But possibly not for a while - I'm aware of some discussions about its future (in addition to the public ones) but there's nothing definite yet.

Will do your cashout now - and any others that have come in.
133  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTC-TC] BMF -- ALERT: BTC-TC SHUTDOWN on: September 27, 2013, 12:57:15 PM
Part of the confusion is that NAV/U isn't being clearly presented.

As soon as NAV/U fell below .032 the fund has a liability in respect of my warrants.  At that stage there are two ways to calculate NAV/U :

1.  Total assets / number of shares - 'High' NAV/U representing NAV/U if I don't sell back.
2.  Total assets - ((.032-High NAV/U)*my warrants) - 'Low' NAV/U represeting what NAV/U would be if I DO sell back.

Which one is correct to use is situational - but in broad terms usagi shouldn't sell below #1 and shouldn't buy back above #2, as doing either makes the situation worse.

Having these 2 ways to value means a massive spread - and is ONE of the reasons why selling warrants/put rights is very dangerous and should only be done where there's very clear benefit to existing investors.

But that's why usagi's having problems saying what NAV/U is - as there's 2 different values for it, neither of which is correct in all situations.  Technically #2 is the correct one - the N in NAV/U stands for 'Net' meaning after deduction of liabilities, which my warrants are (actually it's the sellback right that's presently the liability).

The same thing exists if NAV/U rose over .032 as well.  As then there's a liability which has to be accounted for in respect of my right to buy at .032 (which lowers NAV/U) - the calculation for that one is actually a bit trickier.

As my warrants are half the outstanding share count, it only needs a loss of 25% to knock 50% off actual NAV/U after liabilities.  Assuming 30 BTC of near total losses on LTC-Global shares accounts for almost half that.
134  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) on: September 27, 2013, 12:17:46 PM
I just withdrew our Coinlenders CD to the wallet with out LTC-ATF.B1 and Just-Dice cash in:

1CzJY7pVkCqDjUtycHzFgeTTbbWokqYuXo

I'll continue to list those investments in the spreadsheet (so people can verify why that wallet balance is what it is) but our only assets now are BTC and the CIPHERMINE.B1 bonds.  That means anyone who wants to can trade back PURCHASE or pairs of MINING+SELLING.  I corrected the J-D balance down by .001 as a transaction fee was taken out when I withdrew it - so the wallet balance now exactly matches the sum of those 3 entries in the report.

Here's the current asset status :

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    714.48013888
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    360.61000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9    203.64459670
Just-Dice Balance    153.86136722
TOTAL ASSETS    1,523.30610280

I can now offer redemptions for PURCHASE or pairs of (MINING+SELLING).  I CANNOT redeem unmatched MINING or SELLING.

Here's the relevant numbers:

NAV/U    0.00675889
NAV/U Excluding Ciphermine    0.00515887
Ciphermine per unit    0.16000231
Units per Ciphermine    6.24990987

Note that this is slightly different to the numbers I gave when I originally posted this proposal.  There are two differences:

1. I'll be rebuying at 100% of the cash part not 99%.
2. In my earlier post on the topic I'd used 36031 as the number of bonds when it's actually 36061.

If you send X PURCHASE (or X MINING + SELLING) then you will receive the following:

X * NAV/U Excluding Ciphermine (0.00515887)
X * Ciphermine per unit    (0.16000231) rounded DOWN

I've also shown the Units per Ciphermine (6.24990987) so you can easily see what the optimal quantities to send are - multiples of 625 mean you take no loss basically.  You can play around with those numbers and work out what's best for you - if you actually believe that degree of effort is warranted to save at most .01 BTC (by redeeming fairly optimal amounts then selling the rest into the market).

I'll accept any number of redemptions per person of 500+ PURCHASE (or pairs) and ONE redemption per person for amounts below that.

So even the smallest investments can be redeemed - but I'm not going to spend my time doing lots of tiny redemptions for people trying to arbitrage to make dust-sized profits.

Redemptions will be manual - and done occasionally.  The rates above only apply for transfers received before today's dividend - the cash portion will obviously drop after that by the amount of the dividend (as NAV/U will fall by exactly the dividend amount).

PURCHASE AND/OR pairs of MINING/SELLING should be sent to the usual account - DeprivedMining.

Obviously only send if you would prefer to cash out now than wait for a likely move to a new exchange.
135  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) on: September 27, 2013, 11:16:21 AM
If we don't plan on taking the ciphermine out, how do we ensure that our shares are transferred to wherever this security goes next? This activity has to be done by the October 7th deadline, right?

Transfer has until 30th October - though obviously sooner would be better.  From 7th-30th October (if we haven't moved by then) the shares would still be on BTC-TC and dividends could be paid there still.

Details of how to transfer can't be provided until I know for sure where we're going.  My hope is that an import can be done direct from the list of emails - as was done for securities that migrated to BTC-TC and Bitfunder from GLBSE.  The securities asking for usernames on Bitfunder etc are ones that already have a listing there - so are going to manually transfer shares in themself.
136  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTC-TC] BMF -- ALERT: BTC-TC SHUTDOWN on: September 26, 2013, 06:21:58 PM
Said shareholder is me.

I'm waiting for an updated NAV/U and holdings list - plus there's some details in the motion which need to be clarified before I can vote YES on it.  I'd expect an amended motion to be needed before I could vote YES.  I'll explain in more detail why I voted NO later - some reasons were for self-interest (e.g. issuing new warrants diluting my own), others because the posted motion is too vague on things I believe have to be clear.

But most of all I need to see where all the money went to before I can vote at all (current NAV represented by the bid indicates more value was lost than the total of all assets before I invested - which is pretty hard to do when a lot of it was in safe bonds with redemption at face value).  Unfortunately at around the time BTC-TC annoucned closure the web-page with the assets list for BMF stopped working.  Hopefully that will be corrected soon.
137  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) on: September 26, 2013, 06:05:56 PM
When will you unlock PURCHASE?

When I have a solid NAV/U at which I can sell and redeem them - meaning when we have the cash back from the Coinlenders CD (Hopefully tomorrow) and when we know with confidence what is happening with CIPHERMINE.B1.

It's possible it could be before we relocate - but I'm not really that keen on selling more PURCHASE until after a move (but would have to do so if I reopened it to do buybacks/allow trades - or other people would sell even higher to people who weren't paying attention).
138  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) on: September 26, 2013, 05:50:54 PM
All dividends went through fast.  Final balance matched what spreadsheet predicted to 4 decimal places so we're all good.  SELLING has been unlocked for trading again.
139  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) on: September 26, 2013, 05:46:38 PM
All dividends are now scheduled for immediate payment.  Here's the report - very slightly higher SELLING dividend than I posted last night because I updated the Coinlenders CD value.  That CD matures tomorrow - at which point I'll withdraw it to my wallet and will then be able to start offering redemptions of 100% of (NAV/U - value of CIPHERMINE.B1) plus CIPHERMINE.B1 bonds for those who want to cash out immediately.

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,127.67689518
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    360.61000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9    203.58231378
Just-Dice Balance    153.86146722
TOTAL ASSETS    1,936.44067618
   
Outstanding MINING   210981
Outstanding SELLING   210981
Outstanding PURCHASE   14397
Effective Units   225378
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   148,819,200
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00001690
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00084483
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00168966
365 days (Buyback)    0.00616724
405 days (IPO)    0.00684311
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.00675862
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.00692759
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,932.63256321
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.00857507
Days Dividend Post Div   507.50
SELLING Dividend    0.00181645
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,523.24518627
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.00675862

EDIT: Will unlock SELLING again once the dividends have gone through.
140  Economy / Securities / Re: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS) on: September 26, 2013, 05:31:26 PM
Not a hangover - was out working and it took longer than expected (thought I'd be home about 2-3 hours back).  Dividends will go out shortly - SELLING orderbook will be reset as is usual.
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