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121  Economy / Economics / Currency correspondences on: April 29, 2011, 08:23:43 PM
Just a random observation which may not mean anything.

I was looking at the Market Cap values over at http://bitcoinwatch.com/ and doing some quick conversions.  I found that EUR, PLN and GBP all worked out to a market cap of ~$14 million USD, and the PLN market cap is ~$17 million USD, while (at the time of the posting) the USD market cap is ~$16 million.

Is there a reason why the EUR, PLN and GBP exchange rates would tend to move in sync, separately from the USD rate, while the PLN exchange rate would tend to correspond more closely to USD?  (I haven't confirmed that this is a trend yet and not just a coincidence.)
122  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Less than 12 hours to next difficulty retarget on: April 29, 2011, 06:44:19 PM
Good idea.  I too have now overclocked.   Wink
123  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Less than 12 hours to next difficulty retarget on: April 29, 2011, 04:16:20 PM
And it'll be another doozy.  Over 100k for sure.
countdown in seconds: http://blockexplorer.com/q/eta
network throughput graphs: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

Just a heads up to anyone who wasn't keeping track of it.
124  Other / Chinese students / Re: Request for Translation Services on: April 29, 2011, 04:13:17 PM
Could you post a short excerpt from the document?
125  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Satoshi Disappear Day on: April 29, 2011, 05:09:48 AM

we could just celebrate bitcoin on the anniversary of the genesis block

.... in honour of satoshi and reminder not to fall for the banksters slimy lies again


I propose

January 3rd to be Genesis Block Celebration Day


https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Genesis_block

+1, brilliant solution.
126  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Next parities to watch on: April 28, 2011, 06:28:44 PM
Omani rial: 2.5973 USD
Bahraini dinar: 2.6527 USD
Kuwaiti dinar: 3.6450 USD

After that, there are no higher-valued national currency units.  So... XAU, I guess.  Tongue
127  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? on: April 24, 2011, 03:50:40 PM
I actually think my previous analogy to Zorro is not as absurd as it might sound.

It is an individual who was chocked by the abuses of a power humgry governmental organisation.   As a result, he developped particular skills (programming for Satoshi, swordsmanship for zorro), and when he was ready, he used it to fight against the organisation anonymously.

The striking point imo is the developpement of the skills.  I'm convinced that Satoshi has worked very hard during a long time to come up with this code.  It was a lonely difficult work that probably looked like what did the fictional and yet very symbolic figure of Zorro when he started working on his mastering of the sword.

You can laugh if you want, but I'm more or less serious.



Zorro is a symbol of individual talent raising against collective force.  I think it pretty well describes Satoshi.


If you have any doubt, remember the string he used in order to make a timestamp in the Genesis block:

Code:

Chancellor of what nation do u think?
const char* pszTimestamp = "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks";

You need to pay to view the article, but: http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/public/sitesearch.do?querystring=Chancellor+on+brink+of+second+bailout+for+banks&p=tto&pf=all&bl=on

"Alistair Darling" apparently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alistair_Darling
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chancellor_of_the_Exchequer
128  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: April 24, 2011, 03:17:21 PM
Special short term update

http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/2011/04/bitcoin-market-analysis-short-term-update-april-24th-2011-by-s3052/

Please donate here if you wish to see the Bitcoin Market Coverage continued:
1P8iS7WLx5n4ixThBRCPEPk9A3dR8bV6qt


Curious about something.  I just read this article (since I've been wanting to learn more of your terminology): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangle_%28technical_analysis%29

I don't understand why you describe the descending triangle that you drew in your analysis as a "bullish" triangle, when it says "if you do see it in an uptrend it should be paid attention to as it can act as a powerful reversal signal".  Huh

(Not that I doubt your analysis.)
129  Economy / Economics / Re: 1 BTC = 2 USD on: April 24, 2011, 02:51:23 AM
Well, actually the hope is kinda that it will make it so.  I sold just before this started.  ;P

EVERYBODY, GET OUT WHILE YOU STILL CAN!

Maybe, maybe not.
Okay, I'm happy.  I bought in again at a reasonable price.

I probably shouldn't joke about trying to manipulate the market.  It was really obviously a joke to me (I'd only sold 4 BTC, I wound up losing 0.50), but nobody could have known I didn't really have anything to lose, and there are other people on here who are really serious about manipulating the market.
130  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Difficulty Forecast: Block 102960 on: April 24, 2011, 01:23:11 AM
I have a lot more faith in the correlation between price and difficulty after this recent rally.  The network throughput graphs show a fairly sharp rise.
131  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: April 24, 2011, 12:57:25 AM
It looks like the volume for yesterday was over twice the previous record in dollar terms, over $100k.  Wow.
132  Economy / Economics / Re: 1 BTC = 2 USD on: April 23, 2011, 11:09:53 PM
If this isn't a bubble, I don't know what is.  The price has been outside of the daily Bollinger bands for two days, and outside of the hourly ones for 6+ hours.


Everybodddddddddddy saying it's a bubble...ain't making it so.
Well, actually the hope is kinda that it will make it so.  I sold just before this started.  ;P

EVERYBODY, GET OUT WHILE YOU STILL CAN!
133  Economy / Economics / Re: 1 BTC = 2 USD on: April 23, 2011, 11:06:30 PM
If this isn't a bubble, I don't know what is.  The price has been outside of the daily Bollinger bands for two days, and outside of the hourly ones for 6+ hours.
134  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Disturbingly low difficulty equilibrium when coin generation is small on: April 22, 2011, 04:12:05 PM
Hmm, I fail to see why the fees would drop with time.  The upper limit on the rate of transaction processing should drive the fees up.

From this post (of mine) http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5758.msg84788#msg84788
Quote
Just some rough math to answer my own question, a 1MB block would contain roughly 3000 typical transactions.  Thus there's an upper limit on the transaction processing rate for the entire economy - I reckon that means that once the transaction rate rises over an average of 18k/hr., there will be a minimum fee for your transaction to even have a chance of being processed, and market forces will drive the minimum fee up with time.

The demand for performing transactions will presumably continue to increase, but the supply is constant, ~18k/hr.
135  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Amount of coins to repay to faucet on: April 19, 2011, 07:43:43 PM
Because you've been so forthcoming, I don't think anyone is eager to see you punished.  It's not like you broke the Faucet, and in your own way you helped to make it more secure.  Pay back as much as feels right, but I don't think you should have to pay back more than 40 BTC.  (At least not out of guilt, but feel free to donate more to support the Faucet.)
136  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Difficulty Forecast: Block 118944 on: April 18, 2011, 09:36:52 AM
92348 is it.
137  Other / Chinese students / Re: Mount Sanqingshan National Park in China on: April 18, 2011, 08:22:05 AM
对,我是三年级的。

至今我只去过中国一次。毕业以后想去多多次(也许住那儿住得长期,上班)。

我觉得中国的语言、历史、哲学、文化和人们都非常有意思。我最好在温哥华的朋友是个从中国来的移民。她常常谈中国的事情,帮助我学习中文。我也教她英语,帮助她理解西方的文化。
138  Economy / Economics / Re: First Nation to keep Bitcoin as Official Reserves on: April 17, 2011, 03:02:32 PM
Is it just me, or did anyone else think this was a news item about a group of native Canadians using bitcoins instead of Canadian dollars? :-)

I'm going to go with Somalia. Apparently Somalia has the best mobile telephone system in Africa, and I can see bitcoin catching on there first. I don't think it'll be good for PR, but it'll be interesting.

Edit: and now that I've seen the results: Switzerland? Really?! The countries with major currencies will be the last to surrender. To my mind, that rules out Switzerland, the UK, the US, and every country in the Euro-zone (I suspect that they might want to dump the Euro, but I equally suspect that they may not have much of a choice...) (Also: Japan, Canada, Australia and New Zealand).
Note it says official reserves, but it doesn't say exclusive reserves - i.e. the first country to start strategically hoarding bitcoins, regardless of what other currencies and commodities they may also hoard.  I don't think it's any less likely that would be a country with a major currency.
139  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Weird patterns on Block Explorer on: April 17, 2011, 07:31:17 AM
http://blockexplorer.com/b/118777

Total BTC: 95069.09

You don't see that every day.

Four transactions over 10000 BTC:
http://blockexplorer.com/t/2s9dR7tzdg
http://blockexplorer.com/t/6CoNTeXvvj
http://blockexplorer.com/t/3SMDDjhy4V
http://blockexplorer.com/t/2wcj9do8EA
140  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Trade BTC for BTC to test on: April 17, 2011, 07:16:24 AM
Sent!
And sent.
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