did you bother to look at misreality's graph a few posts back? that's called hoarding. they are doing a little bit of lending but no where near what they've done in the past. they know consumers are tapped out and poor credit risks at this point. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fresearch.stlouisfed.org%2Ffred2%2Fgraph%2Ffredgraph.png%3F%26id%3DEXCRESNS%26scale%3DLeft%26range%3DMax%26cosd%3D1959-01-01%26coed%3D2012-10-01%26line_color%3D%25230000ff%26link_values%3Dfalse%26line_style%3DSolid%26mark_type%3DNONE%26mw%3D4%26lw%3D1%26ost%3D-99999%26oet%3D99999%26mma%3D0%26fml%3Da%26fq%3DMonthly%26fam%3Davg%26fgst%3Dlin%26transformation%3Dlin%26vintage_date%3D2012-12-05%26revision_date%3D2012-12-05&t=665&c=B6JMUulaSkmFTQ) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJSU50.png&t=665&c=vd04KL611r5w5w) securitization has not increased; in fact, its terribly impaired: ...and those two make a pretty good case that the current printing is NOT being leveraged to cancel out the structural deflation that's taking place. The old "pushing on a string" analogy....(which is actually a Keynes quote, isn't it?). Cypher - it seems you agree pretty closely with Kyle Bass (ie, the endpoint does not trigger lots of society-wide inflation, it triggers deflationary collapse). i like Kyle Bass. i really like him. but i see things differently on 2 points: 1. he's stacked a crapload of gold i'm sure. probably the same as i had relative to my net worth (i'm nowhere near in his category). i don't think he knows about Bitcoin. i think that's a problem given what you know my opinion on the metals is at this point. 2. i understand he's constructed a huge fortified ranch somewhere in Texas i believe? complete with jeeps and men armed with AK-47's. probably with rocket launchers, etc?. ![Shocked](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/shocked.gif) i'm more of an optimist in that regard. although, i think things will get very rough when the collapse comes, i think it will mostly hurt Wall St as most retail investors have left the stock mkt knowing how crooked it is. at least i'm hoping so. i think Bitcoin will grind this corruption down into the ground over several years. perhaps fast, perhaps slow, i don't know for sure. but i think we'll all come out of this much better for it in the end so in that sense i'm very optimistic for myself and my family.
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Not really sure why banks keeping foreclosures off the market would be considered a "conspiracy theory."
I spent a long, long time looking at short sales and foreclosures before settling a few months ago. Ask any realtor why the Hell banks are letting $300k+ homes suffer severe water damage, house abuse by gangs making foreclosures a hangout, and other effects of nobody giving a damn. In one house I looked at, it would've been worth well over $200k if the bank had bothered to maintain the house since it was foreclosed on over two years ago. Instead, it went into disrepair and was listed at a price of $25k, about the value of the land (the water damage was so bad, the subflooring had given out in some places during previous showings). I also don't see why banks wouldn't consider these houses as more of liabilities than assets given how many don't appear to even bother maintaining their properties. I'd be pretty eager to get a $150k current-value house with $6k/yr in maintenance and taxes far away from my hands, even if there was a $200k amount in default, rather than banking on a kind of supply-reducing oligopoly on the US housing market working out.
if you were a bank and were faced with going thru the normal foreclosure process and losing money in a declining market vs. keeping those homes on your books and getting bailed out by the Fed at mark to model prices (inflated) which would you do? who cares about the homes anymore? they've essentially been bought by the rest of us via the debasement of our currency.
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Interesting article. I'm an FHA borrower myself (big mistake), and recently refinanced my home to take advantage of much better loan rates. When we bought in late 2008, the mortgage insurance cost was about $50/month. When we refinanced, that went up to $150/month. Yikes! On the upside, the difference in interest rate still made it a worthwhile deal, given that we pay almost $200 less per month and about $50 more per month is going to principle. It just sucks to have that $150 tied up as well, because that could be an extra $150/month in our pocket (and for 5 years, even if we pay off more than 25% of the loan in that time!). Oh well... Also, lol @ FHA... go figure, you loan to people with sub-600 credit scores and they default at a very high rate! ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif) well that's the thing. everyone thinks the banks are lending again but they're not. they only have lent to students whose debts are guaranteed by Sallie Mae (gov't) and lent to homebuyers who qualify for Fannie/Freddie/FHA (gov't). they never hold the loans cuz they know they're bad and only want the fees generated by the loans. personally, i think its a very risky time to buy a house b/c interest rates are at all time lows. if you qualify and i doubt you will if you can't get a gov't subsidized loan, make sure its fixed rate otherwise when interest rates rise you will be crushed. the reason prices have been rising is that the banks have been keeping foreclosures off the market and any price rise will see an increased release of these foreclosures/REO's back onto the market acting as a price suppression mechanism that's built in. also, much of the buys made the last few years have been cash buys from big investors whose goal is to flip these things when the price is right; if it ever gets there. http://www.acting-man.com/?p=20728http://www.acting-man.com/?p=20622Anyone who buys a house on an ARM deserves exactly what they get. Complete idiocy to even consider doing that... It's a great time to buy because of the interest rates. Has nothing to do with the risk of ARM's - that's a bad idea regardless when you buy. that's really not true at all. those who speculated on homes during the run up who had ARM's have been "bailed out" essentially by the rest of us as Ben has lowered interest rates over the last 4 yr. their monthly payments have actually decreased allowing many to stay in their homes. look at municipalities that were duped into buying ARS's which were essentially bets that interest rates would rise. these were sold by Wall St as a hedge against the muni bonds which municipalities sold. Jefferson County and many others have lost millions if not billions on these bets. a conspiracy theorist would say that Wall St sellers of these instruments knew that Ben would be there with the free money to bail them out via further suppression of rates as the bubble popped. they have made fortunes at the expense of the municipalities.
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Update: silverbox's long GPL: -17% (let's see a screenshot silverbox!) cypher's GG short: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FrfZyL.png&t=665&c=Wx9veWwmkxGu5g) Bitcoin: +148 Gold: 0% Difference: +148% advantage Bitcoin (destroying gold and silver) silverbox, i'll never forget when Bitcoin went from $5.40 to $4.50 and you were thrilled to see that just so you could whoop it up that i was wrong despite everyone else's disappointment in the price drop. I'll never forget when you bet me 10 BTC that AAPL would drop to 500 in 2 months and lost. (Thanks for the 10 BTC) I'll also never forget when you said that you were putting on a massive short in GLD at 152 and to put this on the record!, then promtly lost your ass and had to cover. Why did you cover if your certain gold is about to deflate? Lets see you disclosing your positions on the day you start them, not cherry picking the winners (like you did with your GLD short, which you lost money on) I'll also never forget how you crow about selling silver at the peak, but you neglect to mention that you bought into BTC at 20+ with those funds and it promptly crashed to 2. this is a forum for christs sake. ppl post their opinions on where they think this or that investment is gonna go all the time with collapse or rocket descriptions. who do you think you are coming in here and laying down "ground rules" for everyone's opinions as to what they think is gonna happen with this or that? i don't see you asking for "evidence" as to exactly when other ppl stake their positions. what's wrong with you? is it perhaps that you're suffering from the permabull gold/silver religion that has afflicted so many? are you afraid that they are reallly going to collapse? i truly do see this as a possibility and you should respect my opinion just as i respect yours even though we disagree. give me a 6 mo projection as to where gold and silver are going. you asked me for transparency and i provided it in the form of a screenshot that i've posted on my GG position for all to see. you know its valid as i announced it publicly here on this thread in Sept and in my updates to my subs. you even questioned me about it at the time. there is a date of 9/28/12 when i staked the position and you whooped it up assuming i established it before it went over $46. so why do you have the audacity to claim i did a mockup based on exactly zero evidence? so Mr. Transparency, where is your screenshot of GPL? is it that the losses are way greater than 17%? as you can see i'm a patient man with my investments and do not let emotions get involved in my trading. many of my short positions on stocks, like Apple, were established initially back in the Spring. waiting has been profitable. you're clearly an impatient individual. tops and bottoms are processes and the whole point of technical analysis is to call things before they happen to allow time for investors to prepare. the analogy would be if you worked in the Twin Towers. would you want to be warned a few days before or after the planes hit the buildings? here's where i got short initially. yes, rode the thing down and then up. hedging along the way has protected part of the profits. hit some major homeruns along the way with PCLN, CMG, BBBY, WU, and now Apple. i don't consider that a failure at all. in fact, i'm having a great year by my measures. a collapse is a collapse whether it slow or fast. i'll take my shorts down if i'm proven wrong but not until then. and yes, Bitcoin is destroying your precious gold and silver and GPL: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FP913r.png&t=665&c=kwSwzdXnmi4KHw)
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and then you need to think like a criminal. if you were a bank, why would you want to buy any assets after a 4 yr runup from the March 09 lows and after a doubling of the stock market. why not just let the whole thing deflate and then swoop in and buy for pennies on the dollar?
Except that if they let the whole thing deflate, doesn't that wipe themselves out in the process (as you noted a few posts up)? they know that not all of them will survive. just like they threw Lehman overboard when it came right down to it. and Merrill and Bear. the point is, they know the irrationality can only go on so long. at some point no one makes a stupid investment based on a White Horse.
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Update: silverbox's long GPL: -17% (let's see a screenshot silverbox!) cypher's GG short: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FrfZyL.png&t=665&c=Wx9veWwmkxGu5g) Bitcoin: +148 Gold: 0% Difference: +148% advantage Bitcoin (destroying gold and silver) silverbox, i'll never forget when Bitcoin went from $5.40 to $4.50 and you were thrilled to see that just so you could whoop it up that i was wrong despite everyone else's disappointment in the price drop.
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Yup for the last year or so Cypher has been saying that gold and the stock market are about to implode and collapse due to deflation. I've been saying that it isn't.. Whose been right so far?? ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) A broken old school analog clock is right twice a day.. Eventually the market will go down and Cypher will point to it and say see I was right!! I'll say Cypher was right when we have $800 dollar gold (his target is 400) and the Dow drops to 7000 or so. Till then we haven't had the massive collapse he claims is coming. Oh and btw, a collapse is sudden, like 6 months or less. So Cypher was wrong 12 months ago when he said we were about to collapse, yet he persists in saying that its about to happen, mhmm. ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) this thread started in March. 12 months? we got a big dip into June with a bounce. we are now lower than we were in stocks when this thread started. btw, how wrong have you been with your gold stocks? massively wrong. and we have the data to prove it. and the other miners you bought in 2011 have to be way down as well. i know my accounts are way up in Bitcoin and stocks. and that's having been on the short side for stocks. nice try. Oh you two.... But in all seriousness any of you has balls to show trade logs? ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) well i just showed you a screenshot of my GG short a page or so back. why doesn't silverbox show us a screenshot of his for GPL? lol I publicly stated that I bought at 1.98, on a day when it was in fact 1.98. I can edit up a screenshot to show anything about the past. Your screenshot doesn't mean anything. If your going to make a call, state it at the time of initiating the position, not months after the fact. The only time in this thread you made a call you lost on it. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.msg991631;topicseen#msg991631Right here, you stated you shorted GLD at 152.17. Later you stated that you covered, at a LOSS. This is the only trade you've disclosed on this thread with concrete numbers at the TIME YOU MADE IT, not after the fact. The only trade I've disclosed at the time I made it, was to purchase GPL @ 1.98 and yes I'm losing money on it, I have traded around a core position, so I'm not losing as much as it would seem based on today's close of 1.65, however just to make the math simple count my initial position as 1.98. It's been as high as 2.40 or so since I bought at 1.98. Its a very small volatile silver miner it goes up and down 5-10% a day all the time. its really tough to argue with a guy that throws around figures and accusations so loosely like saying i said stocks would collapse 12 mo ago. that was Dec 2011. i was in fact bullish on stocks at that time. this is from my blog back then. read thru all the posts in Dec 2011: http://financialriskanalytics.weebly.com/1/previous/15.htmlits laughable that you would make a claim that the only public trade i've made on this thread is one i lost on. its clear you've made it your mission to try and make me look bad with your insulting behavior. i'm constantly having to provide proof to you of what i've said and when. it's tiring. here's the thing. i continually present reasoned economic arguments about what i think is going on. this thread would not be so popular if i at the very least wasn't stimulating everyone to think about the world a little differently. i present charts and figures and attempt to explain the logic and reasoning behind them. i present links to articles i deem important for everyone to be aware of. i try to share my experiences and insights that others on this forum might not have had the chance to go thru. i present anecdotes and trends and data. i back alot of my claims to links of posts i've made other places on this forum. i even share a screenshot of my GG short that is clearly not mocked up (yet you insinuate i would have the gall to do that). what do you contribute? answer: nothing. you're just a troll who loves to criticize, insinuate, and accuse ppl of dishonesty. go away from this thread or put me on ignore. Yup nothing. Cept to call out your BS about how everything is about to collapse. If you wouldn't make such ridiculous calls, that don't come true, then act as if they had, I wouldn't have to post here to state how your wrong, everything isn't about to collapse, were not about to have massive deflation, just like we weren't in march when you started this thread and I called BS then, just like I am now. lol! yup, as long as your GPL keeps collapsing i'll be satisfied. ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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Interesting... does this mean that if they somehow do manage to deleverage it could release all that cash back into the system (i.e. inflation)?
theoretically. but banks are facing all sorts of increased regulatory scrutiny and aren't just going to lend to anyone at this standpoint. the only loans they've given out the last 4 yr are those backed by the taxpayer or student loans which are non-dischargeable in a bankruptcy. now that lending is getting pulled back as student loan defaults have gone over 20% recently. and then you need to think like a criminal. if you were a bank, why would you want to buy any assets after a 4 yr runup from the March 09 lows and after a doubling of the stock market. why not just let the whole thing deflate and then swoop in and buy for pennies on the dollar?
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I hate to break up this catfight ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) but I'd love it if you guys would take a quick break to teach me something. Cypherdoc is predicting deflation and he seems to believe that ppl defaulting on mortgages will cause it. I understand how retiring debt is deflationary but I don't understand for defaulting. I thought defaulting would cause inflation... because you can't take the USD back. Its spent. So its still out there but is no longer "backed" by the future earning power of the person who originally took the loan. Thanks in advance for helping a macro-econ noobie!!! Your bolded statement is the key. It wasn't necessarily spent, but the debt has been securitised and traded, thereby monetized (basically treated as money). In effect, the debt is being exchanged as money before being paid off - there is no way to take back or 'sterilise' the funds. What's at issue in respect to deflation is the process of writing down these 'assets'. By accepting less than face value for the debt, non-performing securitised assets are a reducing factor on the money supply. However, this is not happening in isolation - the process of securitising debt is continuing, as is the fractional reserve system. By comparison to the amount of debt being written off, there is much more being created at the same time. Hmm... I think you're saying (for instance) that if there was a sudden mass loss of confidence in silver (for example ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) ) as money, then the other forms of money would have to cover all the economic activity that silver originally handled -- there would be a scarcity of currency resulting in deflation. So since the debt was monetized, it behaves in this manner. Fascinating! since silverdick won't answer your question i will. its much easier to think of what happens in a default from the standpoint of the banks balance sheet. that mortgage represents an asset. remember that assets=liabilities + equity. equity is composed of stock and deposits are part of its liabilities. normally the leverage ratio would be 10% if they were fractionally reserving conservatively. but in the rah rah leading up to 2007, companies like Fannie Mae were leveraged 120:1, Goldman Sucks was maybe 50:1. in the latter case it only took a 1/50 or 2% drop in the value of the houses backing those assets to wipe out the equity. for a bank this is disastrous whereas for a homeowner you might just ignore it. in this case the bank then becomes insolvent and the rating agencies have to adjust down the ratings causing stock investors to sell or short. banks would be forced to sell assets or raise more equity through stock dilutions as they scramble for cash. this is deflationary and drives up the USD. this is why banks so strongly resist taking the writedowns as it would wipe them out. this is why they are letting delinquent homeowners live rent/mortgage free for years on end. this is what is happening to Greece and the Northern European banks; the ECB keeps extending loan packages to enable the Greeks to repay their loans to these banks. it isn't sustainable as you can't solve a debt problem with more debt.
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By comparison to the amount of debt being written off, there is much more being created at the same time.
you are wrong. the net difference btwn shadow banking credit and traditional bank credit is shrinking. this is a much bigger problem than you realize: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fimages%2Fuser5%2Fimageroot%2F2012%2F09%2FTrad%2520%252B%2520Shad%2520Liabs%2520vs%2520GDP%2520Q2%25202012_0.jpg&t=665&c=Soj7yQRTG5yiPA)
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I hate to break up this catfight ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) but I'd love it if you guys would take a quick break to teach me something. Cypherdoc is predicting deflation and he seems to believe that ppl defaulting on mortgages will cause it. I understand how retiring debt is deflationary but I don't understand for defaulting. I thought defaulting would cause inflation... because you can't take the USD back. Its spent. So its still out there but is no longer "backed" by the future earning power of the person who originally took the loan. Thanks in advance for helping a macro-econ noobie!!! why don't you have silverbox explain that to you?
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Yup for the last year or so Cypher has been saying that gold and the stock market are about to implode and collapse due to deflation. I've been saying that it isn't.. Whose been right so far?? ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) A broken old school analog clock is right twice a day.. Eventually the market will go down and Cypher will point to it and say see I was right!! I'll say Cypher was right when we have $800 dollar gold (his target is 400) and the Dow drops to 7000 or so. Till then we haven't had the massive collapse he claims is coming. Oh and btw, a collapse is sudden, like 6 months or less. So Cypher was wrong 12 months ago when he said we were about to collapse, yet he persists in saying that its about to happen, mhmm. ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) this thread started in March. 12 months? we got a big dip into June with a bounce. we are now lower than we were in stocks when this thread started. btw, how wrong have you been with your gold stocks? massively wrong. and we have the data to prove it. and the other miners you bought in 2011 have to be way down as well. i know my accounts are way up in Bitcoin and stocks. and that's having been on the short side for stocks. nice try. Oh you two.... But in all seriousness any of you has balls to show trade logs? ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) well i just showed you a screenshot of my GG short a page or so back. why doesn't silverbox show us a screenshot of his for GPL? lol I publicly stated that I bought at 1.98, on a day when it was in fact 1.98. I can edit up a screenshot to show anything about the past. Your screenshot doesn't mean anything. If your going to make a call, state it at the time of initiating the position, not months after the fact. The only time in this thread you made a call you lost on it. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.msg991631;topicseen#msg991631Right here, you stated you shorted GLD at 152.17. Later you stated that you covered, at a LOSS. This is the only trade you've disclosed on this thread with concrete numbers at the TIME YOU MADE IT, not after the fact. The only trade I've disclosed at the time I made it, was to purchase GPL @ 1.98 and yes I'm losing money on it, I have traded around a core position, so I'm not losing as much as it would seem based on today's close of 1.65, however just to make the math simple count my initial position as 1.98. It's been as high as 2.40 or so since I bought at 1.98. Its a very small volatile silver miner it goes up and down 5-10% a day all the time. its really tough to argue with a guy that throws around figures and accusations so loosely like saying i said stocks would collapse 12 mo ago. that was Dec 2011. i was in fact bullish on stocks at that time. this is from my blog back then. read thru all the posts in Dec 2011: http://financialriskanalytics.weebly.com/1/previous/15.htmlits laughable that you would make a claim that the only public trade i've made on this thread is one i lost on. its clear you've made it your mission to try and make me look bad with your insulting behavior. i'm constantly having to provide proof to you of what i've said and when. it's tiring. here's the thing. i continually present reasoned economic arguments about what i think is going on. this thread would not be so popular if i at the very least wasn't stimulating everyone to think about the world a little differently. i present charts and figures and attempt to explain the logic and reasoning behind them. i present links to articles i deem important for everyone to be aware of. i try to share my experiences and insights that others on this forum might not have had the chance to go thru. i present anecdotes and trends and data. i back alot of my claims to links of posts i've made other places on this forum. i even share a screenshot of my GG short that is clearly not mocked up (yet you insinuate i would have the gall to do that). what do you contribute? answer: nothing. you're just a troll who loves to criticize, insinuate, and accuse ppl of dishonesty. go away from this thread or put me on ignore.
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well that's the thing. everyone thinks the banks are lending again but they're not. they only have lent to students whose debts are guaranteed by Sallie Mae (gov't) and lent to homebuyers who qualify for Fannie/Freddie/FHA (gov't). they never hold the loans cuz they know they're bad and only want the fees generated by the loans. personally, i think its a very risky time to buy a house b/c interest rates are at all time lows. if you qualify and i doubt you will if you can't get a gov't subsidized loan, make sure its fixed rate otherwise when interest rates rise you will be crushed. the reason prices have been rising is that the banks have been keeping foreclosures off the market and any price rise will see an increased release of these foreclosures/REO's back onto the market acting as a price suppression mechanism that's built in. also, much of the buys made the last few years have been cash buys from big investors whose goal is to flip these things when the price is right; if it ever gets there. http://www.acting-man.com/?p=20728http://www.acting-man.com/?p=20622Thanks for the links. I wish I had hard data on what the bulk buyers and banks are holding. All of this could be speculation. It is possible there is low inventory because people don't want to sell for a loss? Everyone is waiting for the market to go back up and home prices to go up. When the market does go back up then will everyone sell at the same time? that certainly is a theory that is circulating. just to present the other side of the story to be fair; Calculated Risk is bullish on housing even though i don't agree. lots of clues can be gleaned from the stock market. yes, i think we're in the process of rolling. Toll Brothers had their earnings call yesterday at 11:00 AM and the stock went straight down a total of about 7% since by the end of today.
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btw, the author of those 2 articles i posted above is Ramsey Su; from San Diego.
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Interesting article. I'm an FHA borrower myself (big mistake), and recently refinanced my home to take advantage of much better loan rates. When we bought in late 2008, the mortgage insurance cost was about $50/month. When we refinanced, that went up to $150/month. Yikes! On the upside, the difference in interest rate still made it a worthwhile deal, given that we pay almost $200 less per month and about $50 more per month is going to principle. It just sucks to have that $150 tied up as well, because that could be an extra $150/month in our pocket (and for 5 years, even if we pay off more than 25% of the loan in that time!). Oh well... Also, lol @ FHA... go figure, you loan to people with sub-600 credit scores and they default at a very high rate! ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif) well that's the thing. everyone thinks the banks are lending again but they're not. they only have lent to students whose debts are guaranteed by Sallie Mae (gov't) and lent to homebuyers who qualify for Fannie/Freddie/FHA (gov't). they never hold the loans cuz they know they're bad and only want the fees generated by the loans. personally, i think its a very risky time to buy a house b/c interest rates are at all time lows. if you qualify and i doubt you will if you can't get a gov't subsidized loan, make sure its fixed rate otherwise when interest rates rise you will be crushed. the reason prices have been rising is that the banks have been keeping foreclosures off the market and any price rise will see an increased release of these foreclosures/REO's back onto the market acting as a price suppression mechanism that's built in. also, much of the buys made the last few years have been cash buys from big investors whose goal is to flip these things when the price is right; if it ever gets there. http://www.acting-man.com/?p=20728http://www.acting-man.com/?p=20622
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Yup for the last year or so Cypher has been saying that gold and the stock market are about to implode and collapse due to deflation. I've been saying that it isn't.. Whose been right so far?? ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) A broken old school analog clock is right twice a day.. Eventually the market will go down and Cypher will point to it and say see I was right!! I'll say Cypher was right when we have $800 dollar gold (his target is 400) and the Dow drops to 7000 or so. Till then we haven't had the massive collapse he claims is coming. Oh and btw, a collapse is sudden, like 6 months or less. So Cypher was wrong 12 months ago when he said we were about to collapse, yet he persists in saying that its about to happen, mhmm. ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) this thread started in March. 12 months? we got a big dip into June with a bounce. we are now lower than we were in stocks when this thread started. btw, how wrong have you been with your gold stocks? massively wrong. and we have the data to prove it. and the other miners you bought in 2011 have to be way down as well. i know my accounts are way up in Bitcoin and stocks. and that's having been on the short side for stocks. nice try. Oh you two.... But in all seriousness any of you has balls to show trade logs? ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) well i just showed you a screenshot of my GG short a page or so back. why doesn't silverbox show us a screenshot of his for GPL?
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![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif) cypherdoc's blowing little penguin's minds across the globe ![Cool](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cool.gif) so its not inflation that will deliver the final blow but deflation? deflation sounds good, everything gets cheaper, whats the problem? Yup for the last year or so Cypher has been saying that gold and the stock market are about to implode and collapse due to deflation. I've been saying that it isn't.. Whose been right so far?? ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) A broken old school analog clock is right twice a day.. Eventually the market will go down and Cypher will point to it and say see I was right!! I'll say Cypher was right when we have $800 dollar gold (his target is 400) and the Dow drops to 7000 or so. Till then we haven't had the massive collapse he claims is coming. Oh and btw, a collapse is sudden, like 6 months or less. So Cypher was wrong 12 months ago when he said we were about to collapse, yet he persists in saying that its about to happen, mhmm. ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) this thread started in March. 12 months? we got a big dip into June with a bounce. we are now lower than we were in stocks when this thread started. btw, how wrong have you been with your gold stocks? massively wrong. and we have the data to prove it. and the other miners you bought in 2011 have to be way down as well. i know my accounts are way up in Bitcoin and stocks. and that's having been on the short side for stocks. nice try.
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One thing that is so exciting about Bitcoin is its censorship resistant properties. The main problem from the State's interference in money and currency is its massive interference in the pricing mechanism. With a censorship resistant currency the economy will be able price much more efficiently by being able to route around the State imposed damage from monetary and financial regulation. This will allow economic calculation to happen on a scale never before seen in human history and is extremely bullish for the generation and creation of wealth on a ginormous scale. Yes, I like to point out that bitcoin is the first monetary system humanity has ever created that *credibly* offers perfect information to all participants. It'll be interesting to see what the ramifications of this turn out to be. precisely. and what we have now is price obscurity and imperfect information promulgated by investment banks on a huge scale. look at their resistance to moving derivatives to an exchange away from the OTC market. look at the Libor scandal. what were CDO's all about? and on and on and on... all this to inflate prices. and what has been used to pay for those inflated securities? debt. why do you think Ben and the ECB are desperately trying to prevent Greece et al from defaulting? b/c it would blow a hole in the asset side of the balance sheets of the Northern European banks. its all about the debt. and debt is the main component of the money supply; by far. Ben can't piss fast enough to fill the actively flushing toilet of debt defaults. and all i hear you guys talk about is the minuscule part of the equation; money printing. which quite frankly isn't occurring on that wide of a scale. big whoop; $800 billion to 2.8 trillion of FRN's. that's nothing compared to the magnitude of the debt contraction happening right now. The massive debt you always talk about is built on the money supply leveraged to the umpteenth. You don't think that new money Ben is printing isn't imediately leveraged that same way the old money was?? It starts out as a few billion that Ben pumps in every day, but then after the Wall street boys get done leveraging it, it offsets those huge numbers you like to talk about ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) did you bother to look at misreality's graph a few posts back? that's called hoarding. they are doing a little bit of lending but no where near what they've done in the past. they know consumers are tapped out and poor credit risks at this point. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fresearch.stlouisfed.org%2Ffred2%2Fgraph%2Ffredgraph.png%3F%26id%3DEXCRESNS%26scale%3DLeft%26range%3DMax%26cosd%3D1959-01-01%26coed%3D2012-10-01%26line_color%3D%25230000ff%26link_values%3Dfalse%26line_style%3DSolid%26mark_type%3DNONE%26mw%3D4%26lw%3D1%26ost%3D-99999%26oet%3D99999%26mma%3D0%26fml%3Da%26fq%3DMonthly%26fam%3Davg%26fgst%3Dlin%26transformation%3Dlin%26vintage_date%3D2012-12-05%26revision_date%3D2012-12-05&t=665&c=B6JMUulaSkmFTQ) do you not see a problem here that perfectly jives with the above?. ppl's incomes are levelling off if not dropping: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fresearch.stlouisfed.org%2Ffred2%2Fdata%2FA229RX0_Max_630_378.png&t=665&c=pWhSrSSdjOTXGw) did you not read my earlier post about how banks will only lend if they can immediately flip the loans to the taxpayer aka Fannie/Freddie/FHA? the banks know the homes behind the loans are overpriced otherwise they would be glad to hold them for the yield or for the solid assets behind those loans. this went on ad infinitum during the runup to the 2008 crisis and has been facilitated once again by Obama's unwillingness to clean out the bad acting banks. the cost? a doubling of the national debt in a mere 4 yrs compared to the entire history of this nation. this debt is unpayable. period. and it will be defaulted. this is going to wipe out more speculators on inflation than you can imagine.
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One thing that is so exciting about Bitcoin is its censorship resistant properties. The main problem from the State's interference in money and currency is its massive interference in the pricing mechanism. With a censorship resistant currency the economy will be able price much more efficiently by being able to route around the State imposed damage from monetary and financial regulation. This will allow economic calculation to happen on a scale never before seen in human history and is extremely bullish for the generation and creation of wealth on a ginormous scale. Yes, I like to point out that bitcoin is the first monetary system humanity has ever created that *credibly* offers perfect information to all participants. It'll be interesting to see what the ramifications of this turn out to be. precisely. and what we have now is price obscurity and imperfect information promulgated by investment banks on a huge scale. look at their resistance to moving derivatives to an exchange away from the OTC market. look at the Libor scandal. what were CDO's all about? and on and on and on... all this to inflate prices. and what has been used to pay for those inflated securities? debt. why do you think Ben and the ECB are desperately trying to prevent Greece et al from defaulting? b/c it would blow a hole in the asset side of the balance sheets of the Northern European banks. its all about the debt. and debt is the main component of the money supply; by far. Ben can't piss fast enough to fill the actively flushing toilet of debt defaults. and all i hear you guys talk about is the minuscule part of the equation; money printing. which quite frankly isn't occurring on that wide of a scale. big whoop; $800 billion to 2.8 trillion of FRN's. that's nothing compared to the magnitude of the debt contraction happening right now.
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