They did give a 100% refund in 3 months option for anyone that wants it. That's not too bad.
3 month + days already lost = exactly the amount of time credit card companies will disallow a chargeback. i am just going to call this a scam out right, and you are a tool. thread unwatched too, anyone still havent charged back with credit card is a lost cause. Everyone who paid with btc/wire, i am sorry. |
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endgame is clear - TH will drag & bullsh** until 180GH miners market price becomes pennies on dollars in term of original price all the buyers paid (given current situation, we not that far off), they will then just purchase and deliver those near worthless hardware to the poor saps who paid with btc/wire transfer and consider it complete, pocketing rest of the $ and walk away clean.
and there is absolutely nothing you can do about it.
if anyone who paid with paypal or credit card and still have not filed for a chargeback at this point, you deserve to lose your money. Sorry to be mean spirited but it's the truth.
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4 btc/$560 cost basis for 10gh + starting difficulty 88,000,000 + only 15% per difficulty increase = $27 profit after 12 months. No go.
Mining is dead, long live mining!
What calculations for % gain in BTC price? Sorry for the tangent of the thread... but I feel it's relevant. If you spend 4BTC, and it never returns 4BTC... then who cares what USD price of BTC is? The less than 4BTC you earn with the hardware will never be worth as much as the 4BTC spent for the hardware, no matter what the price of BTC is... This alone is reason enough. . . . and there is more. . . AM had the chance to crush the competition and dominated the market by supplying hardware at competitive prices. If they had focused on an expanded supply line and competing on price. They could have owned asic production and created an economy of scale with much more long term profit, but instead they focused on maximizing their short term profit. This in turn left room in the market for another 4-6 companies to pop up. This is good for customers, but truly bad news for AM. etc..etc.. So go ahead AM, keep on keeping on. Then one day there will be no customers left. . .imho g' luck am was making 2500%+ profit margin on their blades, the industry leader apple is making around 30% and that's considered extremely high. am knows exactly what they are doing. Why sell 5000 blades when you can sell 200 and achieve the same profit. They have continued to be the market leader in term of actual gh/$ delivered. It sucks for the clueless miners buying into their hardware that barely roi anything, but it does not suck to be am. |
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this isnt a bash on terrahash, so you dont really need to come on a whitehorse to their rescue.
people are just trying to explain a simple concept that factoring in btc/usd price increase in roi calculation is incorrect and factually false. It's obvious you dont even understand what is being discussed, just blindly defend anything even remotely sound like a terrahash complain, i am telling you what was being discussed above has nothing to do with terrahash. So kindly go play in traffic instead.
The problem here is that most people see buying BTC and sitting on it as boring. Buying mining equipment is something that I can feel and look at and with the programs running, I can see them work. I have to keep tabs on it to make sure the pool didn't go down, I have to make sure the program didn't hiccup. I can walk past it 100 times a day and know it's working just for me. I've made a cash investment in mining equipment and I get vicarious pleasure out of watching it tick up the fractions of BTC as it hums along. If I buy the BTC and wait... I'm just watching grass grow. If I want to watch grass grow, I can go sit in my yard. I like this post. Aside from the technical and philosophical reasons I'm involved in bitcoin, I like playing with hardware. Well said! Nice job pulling a nug out of this cesspool thread. And a good quote too. It does a nice job describing why we're all into it. it's perfectly fine to run your miners without making money(or losing them) if that's what you enjoy/trying to help the network, we all do it in 1 form or other when playing video games or coding some fun programs that makes no money. There is nothing wrong with that and has nothing to do with the original discussion. The issue here and what is being discussed is btc/usd price increase should not be factored into calculating ROI, that's wrong period. People need to understand this when they are calculating and trying to figure out ROI, by mixing all this crap and confusing the newbies, you guys are doing a disservice to the mining community. |
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4 btc/$560 cost basis for 10gh + starting difficulty 88,000,000 + only 15% per difficulty increase = $27 profit after 12 months. No go.
Mining is dead, long live mining!
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and if btc is 250  ? Calcs can only tell you about that day. If you need btc to go to 250 to make a profit, then you'll make more money just buying btc rather than waiting on a miner to mine the btc. +1. people just don't seem to understand the simple concept btc/usd is not relevant to mining profitability after the second you hand over the cash/btc for mining hardware. I guess that's why there are so many sheeps buying hardware that can never roi. You guys are so good at this ROI type stuff that it is a miracle that you are not extremely rich from it. Oh wait.... It doesn't matter what route you take (buying BTC or buying hardware) There might be a better option that might include more or less risk involved but if you spent $1 and make back more than 1$ then you came out ahead. It doesn't matter if holding onto BTC would have been better, you still came out ahead. Now no one is arguing to go all in one way or another. this isnt a bash on terrahash, so you dont really need to come on a whitehorse to their rescue. people are just trying to explain a simple concept that factoring in btc/usd price increase in roi calculation is incorrect and factually false. It's obvious you dont even understand what is being discussed, just blindly defend anything even remotely sound like a terrahash complain, i am telling you what was being discussed above has nothing to do with terrahash. So kindly go play in traffic instead. |
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i want to do a bitcoin options service so people can hedge or leverage their investments. does anyone want to help me do this?
i have been doing derivatives for over 10 years now as well as designing frontend systems for sp100 banks. You cannot write option contracts as a market maker without putting up the $ to prove you can payout, nevermind the software challenges of pricing the premium/vol. Using a very simple example, you write a $130 strike put contract (size = 1 btc) and try to pocket $15 for the premium, as a buyer i will need to know you can pay me $130 if bitcoin drops to $0 (realistically people will demand at least a 75% cash cover given btc's past price actions). You are nobody, not regulated, not exchange listed. Noone (who's sane) is going to trust you unless you put up the cash in escrow. So for every contract you write you have to be cash covered, just think about how much cash you need and how realistic it is. Now think about how you are going to hedge those put options, most market makers delta hedge (google it) their portfolio by shorting the underlying to try maintain a net neutral delta position (and often fails to do that during fast price markets as vol explodes - losing money). Those are professional traders backed by billions of $ in technology and size from the firms they work for. Related to above, your third problem - there is no way to short the underlying bitcoins to hedge the put contracts you wrote. So if you are legit and put up the cash to cover the put contracts you will make no money and likely lose most of it, or you can run a scam and just sell those option contracts pocketing premiums with no intention of ever honoring them if the price hit your strike. Many sell side leveraged hedge funds actually run this type of scam, they will pocket premium for years until a blackswan like in 2008 where massive out the money put contracts they wrote became in the money, then they declare bankruptcy. You may get away with it, or you may have people coming after you in court or police. On the call side, there is no point. Why would anyone take this kind of counterparty risk to buy calls for a little bit more leverage, they will just buy the underlying bitcoins and be done with it. This is just scratching the surface if anyone want to do a real bitcoin options exchange not just a few contracts posted on the forum, it's not very feasible without significant funding and experience behind it. why did you post assuming I'm going to be a market maker ? im not. I'm going to make it where peoples orders get matched by other peoples orders. im not an idiot How are you going to create an exchange without mm providing liquidity so anyone wish to buy or sell will always have someone taking the other side. Being a middleman matching buyer/seller will only work in a highly liquid environment, also for options you are asking retails to figure out how to price and calculate premiums themselves without mm. All you will ended up with will be an empty exchange with a few contracts that have outrageous premiums that will never get hit. This will be my last post on this subject, just providing some basic info, i would love to have an option exchange for btc, but zeded you are not even in the same universe to execute. Mtgox is probably the only one in a good position to do this right now. |
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and if btc is 250 ? Calcs can only tell you about that day. If you need btc to go to 250 to make a profit, then you'll make more money just buying btc rather than waiting on a miner to mine the btc. +1. people just don't seem to understand the simple concept btc/usd is not relevant to mining profitability after the second you hand over the cash/btc for mining hardware. I guess that's why there are so many sheeps buying hardware that can never roi. |
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i want to do a bitcoin options service so people can hedge or leverage their investments. does anyone want to help me do this?
i have been doing derivatives for over 10 years now as well as designing frontend systems for sp100 banks. You cannot write option contracts as a market maker without putting up the $ to prove you can payout, nevermind the software challenges of pricing the premium/vol. Using a very simple example, you write a $130 strike put contract (size = 1 btc) and try to pocket $15 for the premium, as a buyer i will need to know you can pay me $130 if bitcoin drops to $0 (realistically people will demand at least a 75% cash cover given btc's past price actions). You are nobody, not regulated, not exchange listed. Noone (who's sane) is going to trust you unless you put up the cash in escrow. So for every contract you write you have to be cash covered, just think about how much cash you need and how realistic it is. Now think about how you are going to hedge those put options, most market makers delta hedge (google it) their portfolio by shorting the underlying to try maintain a net neutral delta position (and often fails to do that during fast price markets as vol explodes - losing money). Those are professional traders backed by billions of $ in technology and size from the firms they work for. Related to above, your third problem - there is no way to short the underlying bitcoins to hedge the put contracts you wrote. So if you are legit and put up the cash to cover the put contracts you will make no money and likely lose most of it, or you can run a scam and just sell those option contracts pocketing premiums with no intention of ever honoring them if the price hit your strike. Many sell side leveraged hedge funds actually run this type of scam, they will pocket premium for years until a blackswan like in 2008 where massive out the money put contracts they wrote became in the money, then they declare bankruptcy. You may get away with it, or you may have people coming after you in court or police. On the call side, there is no point. Why would anyone take this kind of counterparty risk to buy calls for a little bit more leverage, they will just buy the underlying bitcoins and be done with it. This is just scratching the surface if anyone want to do a real bitcoin options exchange not just a few contracts posted on the forum, it's not very feasible without significant funding and experience behind it. |
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Just want to throw this out there, does anyone in this thread realize the TH hardware is already no longer profitable?
Using the most optimistic parameters:
1) You receive your hardware in 2 weeks = starting difficulty: 88,709,362
2) Hardware cost: $10500 for 180 GH
3) Difficulty increase of only 15% (last was 30%, upcoming 30+% for sure, and that's just a preview the bulk of the hash power hasnt even hit yet until later this year)
Using the above, you are still looking at negative cash after 1 year of mining.
The chance of you having the hardware in hand in 2 weeks from my understanding so far is close to zero also. I dont understand why people are still hoping for the hardware instead of refund - they are DOA in my view.
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In a few years, it will be interesting to see estimates of how many people were swindled from their money and how much changed hands due to the manipulation of these "infantile" exchanges (meaning that they haven't reached maturity or stability yet).
it's risk/reward, noone is getting swindled. The risk being 2x counterparty: anonymous exchange + issuer, and 1x market: bitcoin/usd. The reward being on the off chance dividend actually gets paid and the exchange doesnt disappear in a few months, the return is well above market for the same risk compared to other products in the established markets. In term of standard fixed income ratings, it's probably triple c or non-investment grade/junk bond, maybe a little lower than that, but the reward is better than most junk bonds on the market and sure as hell a lot better than buying those asic vaporwares with a difficulty countdown clock against you. I wouldnt put a lot of money, but a little bit as part of the high risk/lottery pool isn't the worst idea. Bought around 1500 shares tonight, will probably get another 1500 after they start hashing/dividend if the price isnt too high by then. That's around $1500-$2000 - the max i am willing to throw into this. |
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did labcoin started paying the biweekly dividend? if not does anyone know when they plan to? sorry if it was already asked.
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i was just reading all the avalon cluster**** (pretty much every other thread here besides this one), i think you should all consider yourselves very lucky by choosing buzzdave/bitfury instead of avalon, as i understand pretty much nobody got their hardware, buyers are left with no hardware no refund, and board manufacturers are left with all the useless boards they purchased with no chips and angry buyers while the difficulty continues to gap higher by the day making the preorders irrelevant. What a mess.
I hope the bitfury oct delivery will also go as smoothly as august.
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Your best bet is probably to use a service such at blockchain.info to gather stats. You'll have to make an HTTP request and parse the result with some JSON module. If you do ever want to interact with the mainline client directly, it's easily as simple, because bitcoind support a JSON-RPC interface. The wiki even has Java-specific information. hi thanks for the response, yes i am looking for a direct connection to the p2p network not via a third party. For example how does blockchain.info get its stats? I can code the api myself in java but just confused as to how to go about getting stats on the network, dont want to have a dependency on a third party website (third party api jar files are ok but i cant find any). for example public static long getCurrentDifficulty() { //what are some of the high level steps i have to do? } |
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Hello dell123, can u update me the shipping and tracking status.
Thanks
another n00b scammed, the price isnt even that good. |
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I really got to you didn't I?
I wouldn't dream of using the bank to get a refund from Terrahash as they have done nothing wrong, you seem to forget too easily.
Ya you were ignored, not sure how that slipped, get back in your hole dog.
i am convinced you work for terrahash, no schmuck is this dense after getting f***ed by the same. if i preorder a playstation 4 and one of sony's chip supplier runs away resulting in no delivery, should i forgive sony and not demand a full refund? avalon is scum, but that's between terrahash and them, customer did not order directly from avalon, terrahash did. what exactly has terrahash shown so far as investment? an empty room, 1 half working board, a few plastic boxes on the floor, did i miss anything else? common sense failed you. |
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Hi have a newbie question, how do i use java to find the current bitcoin network difficulty and past difficulties etc..? I looked at bitcoinj but that's mostly for wallet sending/receiving i believe. I dont need wallet or security, just want a way to get stats about the network using java.
Can someone point me in the right direction on the api/packages that's available or how to do that. thanks
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it seems btc-e btc/usd prices are always 10% cheaper than mtgox, so why are people continue to use mtgox instead of btc-e?
Just wondering is there some catch i am not seeing?
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there is no confusion about asicminer's pricing strategy, freidcat is a very smart guy. It's just a race against time, whoever has the hardware and can dump the fastest wins. Freidcat made a business decision to make less money and clear inventory to ensure he doesnt have a warehouse of paper weights down the road. Basically asicminer is the first out the door as the rush for exit starts.
down the road? these sold out in HOURS, not days / weeks. You think a 10% or 20% price increase would've made much difference to that time frame? I'd say not at all. yes it would. |
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