anyone a bit confused about asicminers pricing strategy lately? all stock seems to be flying out the door faster than it can be made, because the prices are just too low for the demand (no ROI?...waaaaaaaaaa, people still buy them..)
there is no confusion about asicminer's pricing strategy, freidcat is a very smart guy. It's just a race against time, whoever has the hardware and can dump the fastest wins. Freidcat made a business decision to make less money and clear inventory to ensure he doesnt have a warehouse of paper weights down the road. Basically asicminer is the first out the door as the rush for exit starts. the only part i am confused about is asicminer announcing all those sales to resellers than literally a week later oversteps them after resellers made the purchases. Unless the reseller price was very good (<3.5 btc) this is kind of a douche move. |
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Let it be known that Terrahash will receive my chips today. now why would you do something like that |
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selling for 3.5 btc, probably cost <$100 to make one, so freidcat's true profit margin on those are finally clear and more importantly you guys should now realize where the bottom is. Once those cards are worth only 1btc (assuming 1 btc is still ~$130), that's when the difficulty will stop going up 35% every 2016 blocks.
end is near.
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Good point, but you really think we could see 70.00 BTC again?...only thing is what the regulators may bring on us,,,outside of that i see it growing still...maybe best to wait tho  why not? the demand fundamentals have not changed - asic hardware purchase + speculation are still the only 2 sole source of demand for bitcoin. Hardware purchase will die off as it's self defeating and speculation creates volatility + up/down cycles. You will also have selling pressure from those large asic farms trying to recoup initial investment as mentioned. People need to understand right now majority of the bitcoin generations are still fractured and divided among retail miners (this is good) but going forward larger and larger pieces of the 2016 pie will be going to a handful of commercial asic farms and large retail miners, which means they will drive prices absent of any other catalyst. The Cyprus banking crisis was probably the only time in bitcoin history i am aware of that created REAL demand for bitcoin driven by fear as people cant get their money out and bitcoin was an alternative. We all know what happened to the prices, it be nice if those events can happen again (speaking purely from bitcoin price viewpoint), but they are blackswans, you might as well get a lottery ticket if hoping for that. In term of regulation, I welcome it, more regulation = more legitimacy = more chance of bitcoin being used as alternative currency = more real demand. As long as they dont ban it outright... |
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The end game is in sight for all of us "wanna be" miners anyways,,,, we will be a drop in the bucket,,,more like in the ocean soon. It will all be a waste of money, our moment is passing now faster then we all thought even 2 months ago. The big well funded operations will put just about everyone out of business in the asic world. Reality check time! Read..this just for starters..... http://www.coindesk.com/bitmine-to-drop-4phs-of-asic-power-onto-bitcoin-network-before-april/Tip: Invest in plain ol Bitcoins now while you can, not small pocket change asics.... Agreed on hardware, it's a race to the bottom, the final balance will be when hardware retails for about the same as the cost to make them, while equals to btc mined + market price. At that point, noone will be making more hardwares as it's no longer profitable and the network difficulty will finally level off and flat line. Disagree on invest in btc right now, the current raise in btc price is again fueled almost 100% by the rush to buy asic hardware, not any real demand. There will be a double whammy on price once the asic buying frenzy levels off by end of year AND the majority of the btc will be mined by asic farms etc...from people who are eager to get money back from their initial investment, the prices will drop again. So i would wait until at least early next year before buying unless price drops to the $70-80 support level before then. Sometimes the best plan is inaction, i would wait and see. |
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how is this scam of a company not shutdown yet.
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Can someone explain what this 200 TH farm is about? can we buy shares of it? Or it's buzzdave's private money tree those 35% difficulty increases are really scary, especially considering the bulk of the hashpower hasnt even come online yet. |
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Got a good amount of blades delivered today... Well stocked, ready to ship as soon as payment is received.
i hope you got a large discount as their reseller and can unload quickly, those will become paper weight in about 2 months max. |
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It would be correct to say that Avalon has not delivered chips to Terrahash yet. Why are you here?
just checking to see if i made the right decision, hope you guys get your hardware while still profitable. It's a race against time with avalon as your driver. bluefin - thank you. |
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havent really been following this thread after paypal got my money back. from the last few pages it looks like TH hasnt delivered anything yet, is that correct?
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a few more replies were posted while making my previous post, ok thanks for the explanation that was a bit of a disappointment but glad it was clarified. edited original post. Here's my latest calculation based on current stats for oct end delivery, very difficult decision either way. However credit must be given to buzzdave and team on how they handled the retail sales so far, compared to avalon/bfl/terrahash etc..it's night and day.
1) Assuming a 35% difficulty increase per 2016 block until Nov 1st delivery, this is very reasonable considering the massive amount of hashpower coming online during that time from all the asic hardware delivery from asicminer/bfl and avalon chips etc..not to mention the large farms coming online.
Starting difficulty at Nov 1: 50,000,000 * 1.35 * 1.35 * 1.35 * 1.35 * 1.35 = 224,000,000
2) Assuming btc price remains flat at average ~$110, also a reasonable assumption given the price history for the last few months.
3) Assuming only a 15% difficulty increase per cycle thereafter over the next 12 months from Nov 1 2013 to Nov 1 2014. I think this is a very conservative estimate given the amount of asic hardware/development coming online, lets just assume best case scenario and things will level off in the next 12 months and averages out at 15% per increase
Profitability decline for 12 months: 0.00948604
4) Putting it all into the final calculator with a starting date of Nov 1st per above:
Bitcoin Difficulty: 224,000,000
Hardware Cost: $8000
Hash Rate: see below
Profitability Decline: 0.009
Time Frame: 12 months
USD/BTC: 110
Ignore all power usage cost etc..
RESULT1 using 600GH: $11345.29, minus the $8000 hardware cost, ~ $3300 profit over 12 months.
RESULT2 using 400GH: $7590.89, minus the $8000 hardware cost, ~$400 loss over 12 months.
Of course it is a given if the difficulty per cycle goes up by even 1-2% profit will be wiped and if actual is lower then more profit, same goes for $ per btc etc..
again this is just my best estimate based on reality not some fantasy numbers...
As i said, very tough decision buy or not...
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2) Per the website:
- 25 GH = 16 chips & 400 GH = 16*16 = 256 chips -> they both average ~1.5GH per chip.
- But the chip page states 2.7 GH per chip.
Does that mean the 25 GH full kit's real hashrate is ~43GH(2.7 * 16), and the 400GH is ~691 GH(2.7 * 256)?
3) Are the inventory numbers for the Oct fullkits accurate? right now it shows a 378 unit left for the 400GH, if all 378 gets sold will they all be delivered in Oct?
Thanks, i like how this is not dependent on avalon and already has asic chips in hand.
buzzdave, can you please answer the above questions, i am thinking of placing an order for the oct 400gh unit after the july shipment was confirmed, but like to have the above answered. Thanks #2 chips are capable of over 3Gh/s under highly controlled conditions, but our boards are underclocked in order to avoid issues described many times in this thread. Does that mean the 25 GH full kit's real hashrate is ~43GH(2.7 * 16), and the 400GH is ~691 GH(2.7 * 256)? I'm making no promises here, but Tytus is seeing peaks of 130+ Gh/s from his 4 card rig. This could be just a phenomenon of pool stats. I see 101 Gh/s at this time. He's sending to Slush, so I can't provide a link to the stats well this is what buzzdave said, if the chip is capable of 2.5-3GH why would they clock it at only 1.5GH? it makes no sense, also i remember reading that the 400GH in the description is just that a description, the actual hashrate is higher per the chip the actual hashrate capabilities? No? anway all remain same but using 400GH in the calculation over same 12 months, this turns into a money loser generating $7590.89 over 12 months: ~$400 loss |
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Where are you getting 600GH from??
From what I understand, the current board design does not lend itself to substantial overclocking. I would not bank on that
in your ROI evaluation.
Apart from the 600GH/s nonsense, this is one of the better ROI evaluations I have encountered recently.
If you can call it that, considering it was done based on 1.5X the expected hashrate
surprised so many people dont like the 600GH number, that was one of the easier assumptions. BuzzDave has said multiple times in this thread and even their website indicates the chip is capable of 2.5-3GH per, the $8000 kit has the per chip hashrate at only 1.5GH. At 600GH it's about a 50% increase from the kit description which rates the chip at 2.3GH per - i thought that was a very reasonable assumption. Or are you guys saying 600 GH is too low and i should increased the hash rate even higher in the calculation? Not clear.. |
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People keep pricing the 25gh/s unit at $1300, which it is not. $1300 is for 25gh/s, a master board, and a raspberry pi. just for 1 25gh/s hashing board, it costs $500. Sure you can only buy a 25gh/s starter kit and that is all if you want... but.. this is stupid imo, buy some hashing boards.
yeah, but you need the master board to run the hashing board. How else are you going to get the hash out of a 500 dollar board? You need a starter kit at least August H-boards were never available for sale. Only Kits. So I'm pricing what I ordered. If Dave offers an option for August customers to buy H-boards, we can talk about $500/board, until then, the cost of 25GH/s in August (?) is $1400 ($1300+$100 for shipping). BTW, $500 October(November) board will produce $13 loss by Jul 2014, after which it will mine at loss. Either this calculator is too aggressive or we are buying a losing proposition. Here's my latest calculation based on current stats for oct end delivery, very difficult decision either way. However credit must be given to buzzdave and team on how they handled the retail sales so far, compared to avalon/bfl/terrahash etc..it's night and day. 1) Assuming a 35% difficulty increase per 2016 block until Nov 1st delivery, this is very reasonable considering the massive amount of hashpower coming online during that time from all the asic hardware delivery from asicminer/bfl and avalon chips etc..not to mention the large farms coming online. Starting difficulty at Nov 1: 50,000,000 * 1.35 * 1.35 * 1.35 * 1.35 * 1.35 = 224,000,000 2) Assuming btc price remains flat at average ~$110, also a reasonable assumption given the price history for the last few months. 3) Assuming only a 15% difficulty increase per cycle thereafter over the next 12 months from Nov 1 2013 to Nov 1 2014. I think this is a very conservative estimate given the amount of asic hardware/development coming online, lets just assume best case scenario and things will level off in the next 12 months and averages out at 15% per increase Profitability decline for 12 months: 0.00948604 4) Putting it all into the final calculator with a starting date of Nov 1st per above: Bitcoin Difficulty: 224,000,000 Hardware Cost: $8000 Hash Rate: see below Profitability Decline: 0.009 Time Frame: 12 months USD/BTC: 110 Ignore all power usage cost etc.. RESULT1 using 600GH: $11345.29, minus the $8000 hardware cost, ~ $3300 profit over 12 months. RESULT2 using 400GH: $7590.89, minus the $8000 hardware cost, ~$400 loss over 12 months. Of course it is a given if the difficulty per cycle goes up by even 1-2% profit will be wiped and if actual is lower then more profit, same goes for $ per btc etc.. again this is just my best estimate based on reality not some fantasy numbers... As i said, very tough decision buy or not... |
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ASICMINER hardware has from its inception been a hardly break even, or negative expectation as far as ROI.
Why would they sell them for what they could mine with them? They should just mine with them in that case. Instead, they place the price higher than what they think they can mine with them and sell them to as many suckers as possible.
And it worked... it is truly genius!
well to be fair this is not specific to asicminer, they actually have the lowest cost right now on the market at <1btc per gh. Look in the for sale section all those guys buying up avalon batch 2s and 3s at >1 btc per gh. ------- For calculators, i use the below, it is the most straight forward and accurate i can find. 1) use this to find the profitability decline in 12 months based on your own expectation: http://srkz.net/msc/difficultyprofitslider.html2) then put the profitability decline number from above into this calculator to find the actual profitability, dont forget to adjust the other inputs like hardware cost and time frame (put 12 months) etc.. the numbers look very bad any way you slice it: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/This is truly a race to the bottom, and we are about 12 months away from it, no matter how much avalon/bfl try to cheat & lie to hold back the asic shipment, the end is coming for mining profitability for retail miners. |
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10 btc for 13 gh sounded like an insanely good deal until you look at the numbers.
1) we are at 50million difficulty from 37million, 35% gap up for the most recent 2016 blocks
2) based on this if we keep a steady 35% difficulty increase, we are looking at a profitability decline of 0.00000029 over 12 months. This means the blades are unprofitable even at 10 btc.
The argument can be made that it's unrealistic to assume 35% difficulty increase every 2016 block and it will level off. I agree but i think we are just getting started and far off from leveling off. We have all those asic hardwares yet to come online around oct - year end, not to mention those who owns the asic chips will bring their own mining farm online in addition to selling the asic as retail.
In my opinion the 35% gap per difficulty increase over 12 months is pretty conservative and not a crazy number, we will have gap ups that exceed 35% and those below 35% it eventually evens out. I think after 12 months we may finally see some signs of leveling off as all the new asic are finally on the market, and the sell price of those hardware will pretty much equal to the cost of manufacturing them unless bitcoin/usd prices go up significantly.
The part that really scares me is we havent even began shipping asic hardware en masses yet. It takes a great deal of self control, but i am holding back ordering those asic blades even at 10 btc. The numbers dont lie...unlike avalon/bfl.
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H-boards come complete with chips. You add H-boards to the M-board contained in a starter kit. People buying chips are developing alternative products/boards.
ok looks like i am just completely clueless lol, so the $500 h board has the chips on them already? i see so you just buy the starter kit then can plug up to 16 h board on them. which is the same as the 400 gh kit. got it thanks |
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I think the "accidental" price increase was really a sneaky marketing ploy designed to sell more October H boards. I know I quickly bought a couple more when I saw the 400 Gh/s kit price increase - I got them "while they were still only $500"... for those of you buying the h board only, can someone explain what you planning to do with it? Are you going to buy the chips separate then manually soldering the chips on them? i am confused what is the point of buying h board and chips separately and do all that work yourself vs just buying the plug n play starter kit. I dont think anyone buy Hboards only and do you think people got too time on hand. I bought few Hboards for my starter kit and stock is getting low. i am not following this, you bought h board for your starter kit? the starter kit is a plug n play miner with chips already on them, h board is just the board with no chips soldered on them. I fail to see the connection what it means by buying a few h board for starter kit. |
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I think the "accidental" price increase was really a sneaky marketing ploy designed to sell more October H boards. I know I quickly bought a couple more when I saw the 400 Gh/s kit price increase - I got them "while they were still only $500"... for those of you buying the h board only, can someone explain what you planning to do with it? Are you going to buy the chips separate then manually soldering the chips on them? i am confused what is the point of buying h board and chips separately and do all that work yourself vs just buying the plug n play starter kit. |
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joke all you want, but this is not good news.
thailand as a country and their currency tbh are irrelevant in term of bitcoin market so it's not a big deal but this sets a very bad precedences.
The bottomline is bitcoin at this stage is still heavily 100% dependent on fiat money. You take away the ability to convert from bitcoin to the primary fiat currencies such as usd/euro and vice versa using a trusted exchange such as mtgox and it will be back to the stone ages for bitcoins...
For example if us/european government banned bitcoins, it means mtgox(or any legit exchange) cannot accept any wires in and out from their banks or allow their citizens to trade on mtgox as that would be breaking the law. Bitcoin will die, or at min go back to $5 a coin obscurity.
The reason bitcoin is so popular now is not because it's p2p noone can stop it, it's because there are legit exchanges that allow conversion to and from fiat. mtgox has come a long way and finally able to legalize and stabilize their platform.
If mtgox shuts down tomorrow see what happens to the bitcoin prices. Some of you are living in fantasy land holding on this p2p notion as some sort of lock on price..
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