Drat! I had a winning strategy: 1. Needle proudhon 2. Use his pride against himself to acquire BTC options. 3.  4. Profit! Instead I was met with honesty and integrity... what's happening to BTC?  |
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It would be interesting to know if those spikes are a lot of days and few coins or the opposite. If its the same person removing the same # of coins (from big stash) you'd get an increase like this as the coins are getting older. Living expenses for an early adopter who no longer has to work?
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I think that by next month, it is very possible that we may never see Bitcoin worth single digits again...
Nah, it'll be worth single digits into next year. You've claimed you have a paper wallet stash... so sell a buy option at 9.99 expiring 2013/04/15 |
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I guess no... we pre-dipped this time  |
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Rather then think that BTC is going to outcompete all these technologies with their advertising dollars I think you futurists should really ask yourselves what markets BTC offers a clear advantage in.
With international wire transfer fees at about $45 bucks (BOA), and currency conversion on top, BTC provides a clear advantage for small international business. Small is where it really shines because its possible to hold foreign currency either by carrying a $1M balance in a swiss act or opening foreign bank accounts in the country whose currency you need to hold. The BTC advantage is especially large if the business is international in both the supply and sales side. For example, getting components made in China, adding some kind of value in Europe (even just a brand name), and then reselling to the USA. The full money cycle in one supply cycle involves 2 currency conversions: USD->Euros (sale) Euros->Yuan (rebuy inventory). And of course if you are doing this via paypal, the full cycle is 2 paypal txns or 6% -- add currency conversion on top of that and I'll bet it pushes 10%! That's a LOT of overhead compared to what BTC can offer.
Another niche is non-local purchases for people who do not qualify for debt-based instruments (i.e. paypal, credit card).
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"A fatal error occured. Bitcoin can no longer continue safely and will quit.
EXCEPTION: 11DbException
Db::get: DB_PAGE_NOTFOUND: Requested page not found
bitcoin in Runaway exception"
Looks like BDB is unhappy... any ideas?
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buying interest above 5 is 865k which 250k above the typical interest during the rally (about 500k)... unfortunately, I think we just got a bit ahead of ourselves.
EDIT: Interest above 5 just increased by another 100k to 965k... I think the rally is back on track. Too bad I wanted to get in at a lower price!
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I mean the last 24h of course... you're right its been pretty crazy. So put your feet up and relax right here for a bit...
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There's 2 rally threads full of rocket ships & a crash thread with... well... crashes. This thread is about stability and how that's a good thing.  ....ahhh, peaceful... |
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Uhm... he might be manipulating a lot of things. He it not about to get burnt though.
I he continue to trade against the market, he will. The point is that he's not going to get burnt because it's not his coins he's playing with. I cant believe you even bothered to spell that out... |
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That's why 50btc is a boringly small amount to put on the line. jcpham will be ecstatic if a BTC is at USD100 in October because 50BTC won't be material. So he has to sell 50 at a discount. It's not as if he won't be skipping at the Sum(holdings) - 50 being worth USD100 each.
Yes, so as I posted previously wondering if he or some other early adopter with more coins then cash really does create an instrument with some significant volume, a reasonable option cost, etc it may be well received. It's not as big a potential "missed opportunity" as you may think. Myopia is definitely not the problem. Assuming a reasonable IRR, the NPV of $550 - cost basis in three months is still worth a couple posts on a thread. Maybe not the pain of reading smoothie's trolling, but that's another issue.
By myopic I just meant that he is looking only at his side of the deal. But like any option, smoothie's side may also be good. Personally I don't like it at 25%... And if it's at USD100 on or near Halloween, I'll be selling enough to make it not worth nearly that much.  :-) If its at USD100 that quickly it will be there because major financial players entered the market, so they may gobble your volume like it did not exist. But of course anything above 11 is a win for both parties. |
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I'd also like to point out that without some type collateral/principle/earnest now, it's pretty difficult to consider it any type of futures deal. My unique situation allows me to "put my money where my mouth is" and profit, regardless. Now that I've opened my mouth, I'll pay 50BTC just to make it go away, frankly. I'd like to keep up my good reputation because it actually means something to me and I'm not here to talk shit and fuck about. I made the deal, provided counter terms, they were accepted, a renege was made on the 25%. I'm still willing to send 50btc to someone if they want to escrow, you can work out the cash with smoothie. 25% is what it takes for what is most likely one hell of a good deal, today. The rocket appears to be taking off so to speak, yet I'm only still looking for $137.50 in escrow, which would, in fact secure coins in October, at 11$ /per. The price was 1$ less when I said it yesterday. Whatever. Troll or participate, it doesn't matter to me. Jcpham, I don't read it that way: I'll accept that $11 /per offer for October 31st. The coins will be waiting on you. You can pay now if you'd like (in full or a partial payment of 25%) and I'll hold on to them for you until that date. I can even find someone to escrow the coins until then if you would like.
Deal. I will buy them on Halloween from you and yes we will use an escrow.You should have said, "you must pay in full or 25% now". But you said "if you'd like" -- well I guess he didn't like :-). You are lucky he's not being a jerk and trying to hold you to the contract as stated. Of course as originally stated there was also no back out clause. It was basically a crazy trade -- happening today with a settle date in October. Why don't you put up a real call option with a reasonable fee, 6 month span (exercisable at ANY TIME during 6 months) and see if you get any takers? Personally I'd be tempted at a much lower rate but very afraid of counterparty risk (the escrow party). Your risk is relatively low, if the call is not exercised and the escrow steals the BTC, you gain the call cost and lose final price*quantity in USD. But if BTC does rocket the escrow could end up holding a LOT of money in BTC which would be a LOT more tempting to disappear with. Too bad the double signed acts are not avail yet! So you'd have to figure that out... Anyway, if you are a miner looking to lock in a price to reduce uncertainty (similar to all producers of goods the world over), then think about it and post a real offer. |
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While I agree that I'm probably loosing out in potential profit, an $11 /per sale is profitable to me. Always will be, from this point forward, nothing can change it. He's laughing, I'm not; he says it is a joke. I say it isn't a joke. I'm EXTRA willing to take the loss now for his money, NOW. He's laughing because he doesn't know how to put his stance in words properly. His position is easily defensible. It might be that this is a good deal for both of you, it depends a lot on your personal time value of money. If his position was not defensible there would be no stock options or futures market. Thinking you got the best of the deal due to its structure alone is myopic. You essentially just sold a covered call. Since you are making a profit at the call price its a very good strategy especially when the market is flat or down, and I think you got a GREAT price for the sale of this option. But if a BTC is worth 100 bucks in October you will be less happy with your call at 11. |
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I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap. It goes something like this:
1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]". What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet. You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)
This was my path anyway...
For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).
So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.
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what I meant by "losing" money is that the last trade was (say) 8.46 and this bot executes a market order which trades at 8.37. If it put in a limit at 8.45 it would probably get filled pretty quickly since in this bull market the buyers are moving up to meet the sellers book. So it is "losing" the 9c spread for the benefit of making the market look at a casual glance like the sellers are moving down to meet the buyer's book.
Write your own bot to snap those up? Since trading fees are on a percentage basis, it cost almost nothing. The market will fix this .. spreads narrow and all is right in this world once again. I thought a bit about doing this... it would take 100 trades to make a BTC (not counting the fees, and if you are lucky the spread will be .10) so not much $ but regardless it would be fun to tweak someone's nose by artificially triggering their bot! It would be interesting to see if it has volume curbs. BTW the bot has switched sides. It is now pushing the price upwards (it is buying .01 whenever someone sells into an existing bid). |
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My point is that buy wall is so far off the money its just there to warn someone trying to push the price down with a sell wall.
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Lets see if a new 20k or 30k wall stands up in the days to come,
Or perhaps not... ;-)
Look at 7$ hombre! This is like a nuclear standoff... everybody showing their sh*t nobody wants to fire 'em off. |
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I think that that's the best legal, not-a-scam theory. He's basically offering a line of BTC credit "hard money" in the unlikely event that the house loses. Because the slippage would be huge to acquire it on the open market to cover a loss. A bigger reserve in the vault allows the gambling houses to cover bigger bets or more simultaneous players (in fact there are laws defining these amounts in physical gambling locations). If the house loses pirate pays out but then has an entire month to buy back on the open market. Or more likely, the house simply stops converting their advantage (collected in BTC) to USD for a while and so little if anything needs to be done on the open market. If gambling houses are backing any loans drawn with USD, that would explain why pirateat40 wants price stability.
The kicker is that he could actually sell the SAME BTC reserve to multiple houses, so long as there is an automatic (instantaneous) way to inform every house about changes in his ability to cover. This would mean that in theory he could offer a lower rate to each house then their own cost to hoard BTC. The only problem with this entire theory is this service really worth 1% or even .1% per day? Probably not. And why not use his own $ or USD loans? The only possibility there is that he's got every USD line of credit he can find fully tapped but the BTC gambling market growth is faster then his ability to borrow USD.
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what I meant by "losing" money is that the last trade was (say) 8.46 and this bot executes a market order which trades at 8.37. If it put in a limit at 8.45 it would probably get filled pretty quickly since in this bull market the buyers are moving up to meet the sellers book. So it is "losing" the 9c spread for the benefit of making the market look at a casual glance like the sellers are moving down to meet the buyer's book.
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