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1281  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers on: January 29, 2022, 11:21:18 AM
Ecuador is in third place, it turns out that they play better than anyone except Brazil and Argentina. Their advantage over fifth place is 6 points, which is probably enough to guarantee a ticket to the World Cup, but if they win against Brazil, they will feel more confident. Plus, playing against such a titled rival as Brazil always adds motivation, maybe that's why Ecuador's odds are not assessed as low as they could.

I suspect the bookies predict the match will end in a draw bookies are unlikely to predict Brazil lose because they are unbeaten so far
Besides that Brazil has 4 matches left in this tournament meaning Brazil only needs 2 more wins to secure the standings , Brazil can get it against Paraguay and Bolivia so don't be surprised if Brazil play to avoid injury.

Despite the unexpected course of the match, your analysis turned out to be correct. Brazil has reached the minimum acceptable result for them and Ecuador too. Now the main task of Ecuador is to score at least three points in the remaining two matches with Peru and Paraguay (I immediately discard the match with Argentina, assuming that Argentina will win) and then they are guaranteed to get a ticket to the World Cup.
1282  Local / Альтернативные криптовалюты / Re: Блокчейн Cardano on: January 29, 2022, 11:14:49 AM
Цена Cardano в $3 сформировалась на ожиданиях сети, которая переплюнет ETH. Запуск DeFI показал, что сеть сильно перегружена и нуждается в масштабировании, как и многие другие, поэтому цена актива и отреагировала на это. Естественно настоящие сторонники подхода Cardano к построению сети продолжают накапливать монеты и ждут от команды успешных шагов по масштабированию, которое может повысить цену ADA в разы.

На мой взгляд Cardano будет очень привлекательна для инвестиций если 22-й год будет медвежьим, и цена на всю крипту просядет в разы. В это время как раз завершится распределение монет Cardano (23 год окончание), что само по себе будет давить цену вверх, плюс команда к тому времени разовьет проект еще больше, плюс (хотелось бы верить) после медвежьего рынка будет бычий. Таким образом целых три фундаментальных фактора будут толкать цену на монеты вверх. Это один из главных претендентов на большие иксы в следующей бычьей фазе рынка.
1283  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread -- Group Stage! on: January 29, 2022, 11:02:17 AM
If I understand correctly, Neymar is still recovering from injury, Messi is already in the ranks, but his game is far from the one he showed in Barcelona. The only one holding the level is Mbappe, but Real Madrid have corresponding players who are consistently good, so I agree with you that PSG has more stars only on paper. These will be equal games and no one here can be considered a favorite.

I think the decision of this game will be won in the details. A well-marked corner, an incredible free-kick, or a very well-crafted play where everything goes well.
Afterwards, it will depend on the health and mental state of the players of both teams.

In turn, the bookmakers, point to the victory of PSG, because of its squad. In terms of squad, it's better than Real Madrid, there's no doubt about that.

Most bettors look at names rather than their actual strength at the moment. Bookmakers look at the opinion of betters and give such odds to be profitable for any outcome. I read about this algorithm of work in a set of sources. Therefore, the predicted results very often have nothing to do with the real ones. I think after the first match there is a high probability that the favorite in this pair will change.
1284  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Africa Football Discussion Thread || Current discussion: AFCON Round of 16. on: January 28, 2022, 08:46:08 PM
Senegal and Cameroon are so far the only teams in the tournament that show a confident game, the rest surprise (or even shock like Nigeria).
A Cameroon vs Senegal game in the final will be intense and something everyone who has been following up on the competition will want to see. With the way both teams have played so far, i think if they don't let the current ratings get into their heads, getting to the final is almost sure. If any other team gets to the final aside these two teams, it is just a lucky run. IMO the other teams have not been convincing enough in performance so far.

If we consider the "accumulated" achievements of the teams, then such a final will indeed be the most fair and interesting. The problem is that in the playoffs one match can turn everything around (due to luck, or vice versa due to a ridiculous removal) so I would not be surprised even if none of these teams play in the final. But both teams should overcome the quarter-final stage easily, this can be argued with a 90 percent probability. Surprises are possible in the semifinals.
1285  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2020/21 on: January 28, 2022, 08:35:46 PM
Barcelona can be ascertained almost bankrupt even the player transfer system is also quite pathetic where a team as big as Barcelona must pay Ferran Torres 10x installments to Manchester City. However, the regulations from La Liga which prohibit foreigners from owning 100% shares in a club give a bad indication for La Liga team's finances, it is very difficult to find investors with minority share ownership. Because all investors in the world of football they want full rights or 100% share ownership like when Manchester City was acquired by entrepreneurs from Qatar.

I think Barcelona is far from bankrupt - their debt is a little more than their annual budget, but they spend their annual budget in a year, and debt repayment is stretched over time. As for the difficulties with the sale of the club, it is easy to get around them, for example, create a Spanish company that will buy the club, and the shares of the created company will belong to a foreigner. The issue is that the management of Barcelona is not considering selling the club.
1286  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥶 Winter Beijin 2022 🥶 Discussion and bet thread 🥶 Winter Game 🥶 on: January 28, 2022, 07:15:58 PM
I read this week about the swimming team at Penn State University that is having problems with the female athletes. A teams woman is completely destroying all the other swimmers and breaking records. One of the teammates spoke out that this will ruin her chances of attending olympia. So I wonder now, isn't that going to happen in all the other disciplines too? A male body with testosterone transitioning into female should always have biological advantages. Could we maybe make strategy to bet on all the trans athletes during the next Olympics? I am not an expert on olympia sports betting, but maybe there is a profit to be made.

As I guess swimming has nothing to do with this Olympiad, but you have touched on an interesting topic. Has anyone seen information about trans athletes who will participate in this olympiad? As far as I remember, several trans athletes took part in the last summer olympiad, but did not achieve any success. I also wonder how such athletes will perform in China, as far as I know such things are not welcome there.
1287  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: January 28, 2022, 07:05:46 PM
When it comes to Haaland and Dortmund, there is a big dilemma for Dortmund right now. They are trying their best to keep Haaland at the team this summer too. There were so many speculations about him in the last transfer window but none of the top clubs made an offer for him. But this time, Dortmund won't be that lucky. They are also aware of the fact that they will most probably lose him to a top club for a very cheap price like €75m thanks to his release clause. The thing I wonder about the most is that whether Dortmund will manage to sign a symbolic contract with Haaland at least for increasing his release clause much more than this.

Haaland has already publicly complained about the pressure from management, hence we can conclude that he is not ready to make concessions and has already decided everything for himself. Borussia Dortmund will lose a good player (in the summer) but in the end they will be well compensated according to the contract. It is clear that you always want to get even more, but in this case they will receive as much as planned and this can be considered a success.
1288  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: January 28, 2022, 06:50:41 PM
I think it will be a match between the former champion and the future, and for PSG it will be an additional motivation to prove to everyone that they are the real champions and avenge last year's defeat. So even though it will be a difficult match, I expect PSG to win big, maybe 3-0 or 4-1. Therefore, most likely I will bet on the total and on the victory of PSG.
This season Lile is not as good as last season despite being the defending champion. So far Lille has only won 8 of the 20 matches he played, certainly not something to be expected after last season's impressive performance and won the title.

PSG's victory will certainly be very possible because Lille does not have a strong defense this season. If last season Lile conceded only 23 goals in 38 match, then this season they have conceded 30 goals in 22 matches. This might be a good factor to judge PSG's big win later. I have a 3-1 prediction for PSG to win, but maybe it could be bigger.

Betting on the correct score is a really tempting idea, as the profit will be significant if successful, but a couple of bad goals (maybe it will be 5-1 instead of 3-1) can ruin everything. Most likely I will make a multi bet on the victory of PSG, on BTTS and on total over. In total, this will give a coefficient greater than 4, which will be a very good win if successful.
1289  Local / Токены / Re: Все что нужно знать о NFT токенах on: January 28, 2022, 06:38:09 PM
Вслед за Twitter (который налажал) и youtube (где еще нет подробностей) об интеграции NFT объявил reddit:

Reddit планирует интеграцию NFT

Платформа начала работу над реализацией опции использования NFT в качестве фотографии профиля
источник

В общем адопшен NFT идет довольно широко, но пока нельзя сказать что успешно. Reddit как полигон применения будет довольно интересен - с одной стороны там жесткая модерация (и можно заставлять пользователей использовать только "настоящие NFT"), с другой стороны значительная часть аудитории отбитые леваки, которые испытывают муки от самих понятий собственность и привилегии.
1290  Local / Юристы / Re: Законопроект о криптовалютах on: January 28, 2022, 06:00:58 PM
То же самое было с индивидуальными предпринимателями: для выведения из тени тех, кто в одиночку что-то делал, была предложена упрощённая и удобная схема налогообложения со льготными налогами. Никаких дополнительных платежей в тот момент никто не предсказывал. И это сработало. Но кто уже зарегистрировался, того прекрасно видно, и после разрегистрции будет понятно, куда ходить с проверками.

Всё верно пишите, не понимаю о чем тут можно спорить.
И более того - все последующие планы уже озвучены:

Пенсионный фонд и Фонд социального страхования с 1 января 2023 года объединят в Социальный фонд России, следует из размещенных на портале проектов нормативных актов законопроектов, предложенных Минтрудом. Ведомство также предлагает ввести единый тариф для уплаты взносов по социальному страхованию с 1 января 2023 года, сообщает пресс-служба ведомства.
...
Среди других предложений Минтруда — объединение всех существующих льготных категорий плательщиков в три группы вместо 12 льготных режимов для отдельных категорий плательщиков и пять льготных моделей уплаты страховых взносов.

Кроме того, Минтруд предлагает установить единый круг застрахованных лиц. Таким образом, обязательное соцстрахование распространится не только на работающих по трудовому договору, но и на занятых по гражданско-правовым договорам (ГПХ) граждан.

источник

Таким образом вот этот

Quote
22% с заработной платы работника в Пенсионный фонд в пределах облагаемой базы и 10% с заработка, превышающего облагаемую базу;
5,1% в Фонд обязательного медицинского страхования с общего дохода работника;
2,9% в Фонд социального страхования с заработка в пределах облагаемой базы.

список заменят одним платежом, который будет администрировать работодатель, и его будут уплачивать в том числе самозанятые.
Так что любители поиграть в азартные игры с государством опять скоро поймут, что лучше бы не начинали.
1291  Local / Бизнес / Re: Stake - Казино с 12 играми на любой вкус !!! on: January 27, 2022, 04:59:21 PM

акция проходит c 27-го января по 3 февраля 2022 г.

Случайный дроп от Evolution

Evolution и Stake устанавливают новый уровень: каждую неделю разыгрывается 5000 долларов США для 10 счастливчиков, которые играют в одну из крупнейших игр от Evolution!

Распределение призов
5 000 долларов США – каждую неделю десять случайно выбранных игроков получат приз в размере 500 доларов США.

Как принять участие
Игроки должны поставить не менее 1000 долларов в соответствующих играх Evolution, чтобы иметь право на получение призов.

Условия и правила
- Минимальная ставка учитываемая в этой акции составляет 20 центов США или эквивалент в другой валюте.
- Игроки, у которых будет обнаружено использование нескольких учетных записей в этой акции, не будут иметь права на получение призов.
- Игроки с активной партнерской программой не будут иметь права на получение призов.

Игры
1292  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers on: January 27, 2022, 04:37:18 PM
This odd is big for some reason. Maybe a lack of players that are coming to play for Brazil or something. If that is not the case then this odd on Brazil so big that everyone must take an advantage of it. Dosetn matter even how good Ecuador is playing at this qualifers.

Ecuador is in third place, it turns out that they play better than anyone except Brazil and Argentina. Their advantage over fifth place is 6 points, which is probably enough to guarantee a ticket to the World Cup, but if they win against Brazil, they will feel more confident. Plus, playing against such a titled rival as Brazil always adds motivation, maybe that's why Ecuador's odds are not assessed as low as they could.
1293  Local / Трейдеры / Re: Последний вагон на север on: January 27, 2022, 04:02:13 PM
Да  эта  ведьма наглая  песец  - даже  акции не покупает , строго  коллы - берет  иксы  как  в альткоинах.
Кто  еще  кроме  инсайдера  такое  себе позволит.

Да там у всех нос в пуху.
Вот сайт следящий за торговыми подвигами членов сената https://app.capitoltrades.com/
Похоже что там все денно и нощно играют на бирже (и вряд ли проигрывают). Глубина данных, кстати, приличная - до 2019 года. Если глубоко покопать, то наверно можно много скелетов выкопать вроде подготовки к скамдемии и прочим "неожиданностям".
1294  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2021/2022 on: January 27, 2022, 03:51:21 PM
Such an experiment will still not be easy and of course it will take longer to build a team, while at the same time they want to bounce back quickly. So far Manchester United keep changing coaches and it at least makes it difficult to implement better gameplay in every match, I just hope Manchester United get the exact coach and not about star players who continue to be hunted.

Manchester United needs a manager who will be as stellar as the players he is trying to manage, maybe that will give a good result. Ole and Carrick are nothing like those coaches. If the players do not understand the subordination, then the discipline in the team suffers and all plans fall apart. Maybe Zidane would be a good option for Manchester - he knows how to connect with the players and he is a star both as a player and as a manager.
1295  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread -- Group Stage! on: January 27, 2022, 03:34:23 PM
You are right. PSG have more star players compared to RMA but I personally think that RMA has better team chemistry compared to PSG.

For example, the Benzema-Vinicius duo is doing insanely good this season and we already know how good the Kroos-Modric-Casemiro trio is in the middle of the park.

But PSG's front trio Messi-Neymar-Mbappe are still not having the needed chemistry and that might be a big factor.

If I understand correctly, Neymar is still recovering from injury, Messi is already in the ranks, but his game is far from the one he showed in Barcelona. The only one holding the level is Mbappe, but Real Madrid have corresponding players who are consistently good, so I agree with you that PSG has more stars only on paper. These will be equal games and no one here can be considered a favorite.
1296  Local / Юристы / Re: Законопроект о криптовалютах on: January 27, 2022, 02:59:10 PM
Минфин предложил проводить все операции с криптовалютой через российские банки и собирать данные о владельцах кошельков
Это в принципе лучше полного запрета. Интересно правда как они будут бороться с обменниками за наличку?

Это как срок на 5 лет лучше чем срок на 6. Лучше избегать и того и другого.

Quote
Минфин предложил разделить клиентов на квалифицированных инвесторов и неквалифицированных. Для последней категории будут ограничены операции и суммы по ним.

Контролировать и отслеживать транзакции смогут банки, следует из концепции. Минфин предложил собирать имя, адрес, дату рождения, адрес электронной почты, номер телефона, паспортные данные, фотографию клиента, номер банковского счета, карту, которая используется для приобретения виртуальных активов, ее срок действия и CVC-код.

Кроме того, банки смогут отслеживать информацию об устройстве, с которого совершаются транзакции, и данные об операциях.
Для выявления противоправных транзакций предлагается использовать сервис «Прозрачный блокчейн», чтобы «создать базу данных криптокошельков, связанных с осуществлением противоправной деятельности».

Часть функций будут распределены между Центробанком, Минфином, Росфинмониторингом, ФНС, Минцифры и Генпрокуратурой, говорится в докладе.

Кто в своем уме решит с этой системой хоть как-то соприкасаться (что будет означать автоматическое взятие на карандаш и появление огромных рисков взаимодействия с государственными структурами)? Могу предположить, что только какие-то юридические лица (для спекуляций). Все остальные будут бежать от такой системы как черт от ладана.
1297  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Africa Football Discussion Thread || Current discussion: AFCON Round of 16. on: January 27, 2022, 02:48:35 PM
I think heavy favorites Cameroon and Senegal don't see much problem in quarter finals and will reach to semi final easily. Other clashes are different though. Tunisia is slightly favorite but their performance was not that impressing. The hardest clash would be Egypt and Morocco though, both teams have similar chance for semi final. Egypt passed Ivory Coast in penalties, Morocco had easier fixture until they come to quarter final. We don't know how good they can play against better opponents. I still favor Morocco one step ahead.

Senegal and Cameroon are so far the only teams in the tournament that show a confident game, the rest surprise (or even shock like Nigeria). The odds of Cameroon winning the quarter-finals are now estimated at 1.54 and Senegal at 1.59. While Egypt is rated as an outsider in the match against Morocco and has odds of 3.25. Tunisia and Burkina Faso have almost identical quotes. I think it's more profitable to multi bet on the favorites and avoid betting on the last two matches.
1298  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: January 27, 2022, 02:41:08 PM
Even though gambling odds believe that AC Milan will win in this derby della madonninna, I am still a little doubtful about AC Milan's current strength. In my opinion, Inter Milan has a better performance than Milan. Even though Inter have had a tough week with a hectic schedule, this victory against Milan will give high confidence for the next match and also to maintain the chances of winning the title.

Where do you see odds? Wherever I watch Inter is considered a clear favorite:

Inter 1.84

Draw 3.85

Milan 4.20

I'm not sure it's fair to give Inter such a big lead (in my opinion the two teams are about even), but the home match plus the best recent results suggests that Inter is indeed the favourite. If Milan lose this match, then most likely it will mean the end of the fight for the championship for it.
1299  Local / Политика / Re: Путинский режим - лучшее время для России! on: January 26, 2022, 08:06:16 PM
Удивлен что в заданных условиях обсуждения, в треде до сих пор еще нет этой картинки:



Картинка устарела (еще шесть лет путинизма минуло), но смысл не поменялся.
1300  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: January 26, 2022, 07:47:20 PM
The next match of PSG seems to be really interesting. They are going to play away against Lille which are the last champion team in the league. But apart from that, they are doing really bad this season. They are at the 10th position in the standings currently. They lost to Brest by 2-0 away the last time but their general form recently has been good actually. If they maintain it by the coming matches, they can continue to climb to upper positions. But PSG is a big hindrance for them. Their chance of winning the match may be not high but they could draw with PSG at least.

I think it will be a match between the former champion and the future, and for PSG it will be an additional motivation to prove to everyone that they are the real champions and avenge last year's defeat. So even though it will be a difficult match, I expect PSG to win big, maybe 3-0 or 4-1. Therefore, most likely I will bet on the total and on the victory of PSG.
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