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1301  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 10, 2015, 04:45:39 AM
So the $300 dream is good as dead now? But the $500 dream still intact in my brain. I don't know why. Maybe because of the incoming halving?

$300 dream ded, confirmed. And your brain is the only brain aware that such halving is inbound.

Maybe after 200k worth of goxcoins get distributed, 70k US and AU govcoins to be sold, a maxblocksize argument that seems to have donned cement shoes is resolved... maybe.
1302  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will history repeat? 1 BTC = $25.000 in 2016 Q4 on: August 10, 2015, 04:26:46 AM
Probably, but $25 means over. I think the price would continue to fell, but not $25, may $100?

Fell to 260 means over. Felling may persist if breach of 250 confirmed, perchance 11. May 13?
1303  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 10, 2015, 03:31:32 AM

Definitely premature to be cryptasming all over the joint.
1304  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will history repeat? 1 BTC = $25.000 in 2016 Q4 on: August 10, 2015, 12:32:22 AM
Should have been done in MS paint for maximum credibility.
1305  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 09, 2015, 11:52:42 PM
I see Kraken are blacklisting NY due to their crazy new BTC regulations.

This is most definitely 'bad news' for all things Bitcoin  Roll Eyes


It must be a nightmare for bitcoiners living in New York now. The only way I imagine they can do business with exchanges that have blacklisted New York is through a VPN. I have never tried accessing an exchange through a VPN but I wonder if the exchanges have also blacklisted any IP addresses they detect as VPN IP addresses.

Further, when submitting their KYC documents New York residents have also probably had to tell the exchanges they are from New York. Perhaps students with bank account addresses at their non-New York parents might be OK.

Whew, dodged a bullet there.
1306  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 05, 2015, 07:37:03 AM
Come back blindmayorbitcorn, don't think for a second your flirting with that redditrollop has gone unnoticed...
1307  Economy / Speculation / Re: We are coming up on two years since the 1200 spike, longest no-bubble run? on: August 05, 2015, 06:43:17 AM
Create an altcoin with you owning all 140,000,000 total coins, sell one for $30, leaving you with 139,999,999 of them. Your new coin has a market cap bigger than bitcoin.
1308  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 05, 2015, 06:06:45 AM
I did attempt to clarify for him, but he kept saying that he does NOT understand, and that he is NOT going to invest into anything that he does NOT understand.

People who do not understand something should not invest in it. But they should also STFU.

When talking to people like this, sometimes I get the sense that I am receiving a live troll job, because they get you to go through a detailed, specific and extensive explanation, and then afterwards they act as if they did NOT understand a damn thing that was said (even though you know that they are smarter than that).

A real troll job would have been if they asked you your unrealized gain/loss on being so smart.

Edit: Sorry JJG, I admire your principled stance. Like a monkey... I sometimes grab the low hanging fruit.
1309  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 05, 2015, 05:27:30 AM
Increase to 2-4MB, not enough for pedal to the metal scaling fans, too much for accelerated fee market fans. Perfect for real world testing of a variable that we haven't tested yet.
1310  Economy / Speculation / Re: We are coming up on two years since the 1200 spike, longest no-bubble run? on: August 05, 2015, 05:15:01 AM
When the new breed of Bitcoiner who got burned buying at the top and then tried to get rich with altcoins realizes how useless altcoins really are, a lot of money will come flooding back to Bitcoin.  My guess is that the market landscape will look very different in another 12 months. 

According to coinmarketcap, today, BTC is already 86% of the crypto space. I don't think another 14% is likely to induce a new ATH.

Though as soon as the banks figure out their 'Bitcoinless blockchain innovations' are unsecurable, we might see some real appreciation.

Would love to see a trend line price chart from coinmarketcap that shows the percent of crypto market cap occupied by Bitcoin over the last three years.

Not sure about the "trend line price chart" but here's a chart:

there is competition from altcoins to consider. If we leave 99% of the market on the table because of ultraconservatism about blocksize, we let an altcoin have all that, and Bitcoin gets swept by the wayside. And guess which one ends up more decentralized.

This important comment made me think that it's a good time to review just how Bitcoin has fared against the altcoins since a useful comparison has been made possible by coinmarketcap. Using the Wayback machine I got one data-point (aggregate values in USD) for each month as close to the 9th (first one) as possible. The chart below shows Bitcoin's monetary base (or market cap) as a percentage of all cryptocurrency excluding Ripple.



There is a very slight trend down (black), exacerbated by the recent LTC ramp, probably pre-halving noise as smooth says. I have shown the y-axis from 0% to avoid the scarier looking trend when base-lined at 80%.

This chart is interesting because it shows that despite the acrimonious 1MB debate it is not yet having a serious effect on price, and similarly the 1MB is not yet crippling user volumes and driving up usage (and therefore enhanced value) of alternative crypto.

Yesterday, we had a BIP [77? 103?] from Pieter, which is extremely welcome and the first official solution from the 1MBers in Core Dev. Unfortunately, this BIP pursues minimal change, with 2MB blocks only in 2021 and 10MB blocks (effectively the same capacity as Dogecoin today), in 2030. Personally, I think this will leave a severe bottleneck in Bitcoin throughput by about Q2/Q3 2016 and the major risk of a sharp change down in trend in the chart above.
1311  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: August 05, 2015, 05:01:49 AM
155XBT bought in July 2015

1312  Economy / Speculation / Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. on: August 05, 2015, 04:58:36 AM
Thank you BurtW for elaborating this for me, but I've a question if you don't mind.

Quote
So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

1. Why would we keep the power consumption under 2% of world wide power production ?

2. Why we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so ?

3. Can we reach $500,000 in era 6, which is about 2033 or so ?

what satoshi says about 20 years having either no volume or large volume kinda makes me scared lol.

cause what if we dont see the volume we hope for to make this coin go up.. which is possible ya know? where would this volume come from too.. like how many more exchanges do we need to achieve this? or is it something we need more traditional sense that increases the volume?

In 20 years, bitcoin either needs huge transaction flow to pay miners with fees, or it shrinks down to hobbyist size (wrt miners, users, and price). There's not much in between. Meaning... you should think of long term bitcoin "investment" ending with a distinct possibility of either... a big fat louie ($0) or moon.  

Edit for luciann: It is definitely not lack of exchanges affecting bitcoin adoption. You don't just simply build more dealerships if you want to sell more cars. People have to want the cars first.
1313  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Karpeles arrest and bitcoin's social stigma. on: August 05, 2015, 04:04:03 AM
I think the deflationary distribution baked into the bitcoin protocol is political. That's the interesting part.

Thinking that joe blow public gives any care to Roger Ver, MtGox implosion, or even bitcoin itself is somewhat silly. It bubbled and died in late 2013 in their minds. The CEO committed suicide and a guy wearing a magical tux haxored all the coins.

If bitcoin does penetrate the mainstream, it will be on the backend. Living behind the splashy javascript curtain, the rails. Until then, it is the domain of idealists, traders, scammers, black/grey markets, capital control evasion, and the tech horny. (Not a horrible thing btw, but possibly problematic for posters bleating "$10k coins next year!")

I'm waiting for the altcoin with an exponentially increasing rate of emission, maybe call it Krugcoin? Surely the proletariat will flock like moths to a flame to build and support it.
1314  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 03, 2015, 09:26:45 PM

Uh... you do realize this is just some jo dad with a stupid reddit user name, not the Winklevii.

if so, the jokes on me.

evidence?

[–]WinkleviBitcoinTrust 29 points 1 month ago
I saw a headline somewhere else on Reddit when the price dipped below $200 in January. That's what got me interested in BTC, and I have been buying ever since. I could cash out now for a modest gain, but why would I do that when we are going to the moon?
1315  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 03, 2015, 09:17:49 PM

Uh... you do realize this is just some jo dad with a stupid reddit user name, not the Winklevii.
1316  Economy / Speculation / Re: You all know it's going to crash? on: August 03, 2015, 04:57:47 AM
You haven't said where to send it?

Send US$1Million worth of bitcoins to:

1Fxzp1D8JrDTMAHAtRoshMyY5Ue6zuEmby

You have 24 hours.

1317  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 03, 2015, 04:12:57 AM
Seeing that 1MB isn't completely full (outside spam ops), a 100% increase seems like a perfectly reasonable compromise... Let's do this. Study the results, and plan for the future accordingly.
1318  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 03, 2015, 03:57:55 AM
2MB iCE and tvbcof?

We can build a bridge from the middle of the river?

What's the point?  If you want a universal crypto-currency which everyone uses for everything, do the calcs and do it.  If not, define where you want to draw the line (at what threshold do you kick people out and where do you kick them out to) and do that.  For some reason nobody wants to put any real numbers on any of that stuff.  Funny eh?



Being everything for everyone is silly, I agree. But 2MB (max not avg) seems manageable for a vast majority current nodes. Seems satoshi's vision was scaling up where technologically feasible and reasonable, while maintaining sufficient decentralization.
1319  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 03, 2015, 03:44:35 AM
2MB iCE and tvbcof?

We can build a bridge from the middle of the river?
1320  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 03, 2015, 03:30:13 AM

To see if benevolent bullwhale's wall is real on finex, or just manipulation.
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