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13081  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Litecoin v. Bitcoin on: September 27, 2015, 09:46:19 AM
From all the altcoins I think Litecoin is the best. Market capitalization of Litecoin is $154 million, which is the second to Bitcoin's $6.34 billion among all cryptocurrencies. I think in the far future there will be at least several cryptocurrencies active and Litecoin will definitely be among them. But for now I'd stick to Bitcoin because it has much more support.
13082  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is there a way to earn at least $1 in BTC per hour? on: September 26, 2015, 11:30:56 AM
I'm very grateful to everyone who has posted in this thread. Thank you guys, it was very helpful.
I hope some of the advices in this thread will help others too.
Have a beautiful day! to all)
13083  Other / Archival / Re: Last Drink You drank. (daily thread) on: September 26, 2015, 09:38:37 AM
The #1 drink in the world according  to travel.cnn.com - plain Water.
Thanks for the thread btw, it's very helpfull if you are(like me) interested in what people of the world usually drink.
13084  Other / Off-topic / Re: Who is more sexy? [POLL] on: September 26, 2015, 09:30:25 AM
Voted Yofun. ) Idk did you mean the Crunchy Puffs or just you, but I voted Yofun anyway 'cause I like the Crunchy Puffs sometimes.  Smiley
13085  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Which country has the highest percentage of miners? on: September 26, 2015, 09:15:33 AM
Can this affect the network in any way?
Most of the hashrate is in china. If china were to someone block the miners from connecting to the network, that could be disastrous since we would be losing over half of the hashrate

Doesn't that seem strange? Shouldn't a Communist state like China make the BTC illegal in the first place? The good news is they are approaching to the Capitalism more and more and before this government makes the BTC illegal most likely it will be replaced by a more liberal one.
13086  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Buying Drugs with Bitcoin ? on: September 26, 2015, 08:36:57 AM
Actually the less we link BTC to Drugs the better. Many people refuse to deal with BTC because the media made them think it's "a currency for buying drugs". People just afraid to to use it and hence the demand is low, the price is low. Since we all here want the price of BTC was high we shouldn't link BTC to drugs.
13087  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: do you play loteries ,did you won something on: September 26, 2015, 08:23:48 AM
I did play when I was a schoolkid, long time ago. I was living in the Soviet Union and at the time we had only the lotteries held by the state. There was saying at the time, kind of a joke, "Do not gamble with the state!" Smiley I was a schoolkid, I wanted to do everything backwards, so I gambled. I won several times the ammounts which were equivalent to $1-$3. Not much but at the time that was pretty nice. ... Never played lotteries since then.
13088  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What do you know about Venezuela? on: September 26, 2015, 07:50:31 AM
What do I know about Venezuela?

1. The level of corruption in the state is incredibly high.

2. There is no extradition treaty between US and Venezuela.

3. It's a beautiful country with nice simple people who just don't understand that the politicians deceive them every time.
13089  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Saudi Prince Arrested For Sex Assault On Woman Who Ran Screaming From His Home on: September 26, 2015, 07:33:19 AM
Quote

Al-Saud was freed Thursday afternoon after posting $300,000 bail, jail records show.


As a non-American I'm wondering is it possible for him just to flee to his country now. I mean he can easily leave those $300,000 behind, or is it not so simple? I hope it's not. The scumbag should go to jail.
13090  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: [Primedice.com] Guess the price of BTC competition - Free to enter - 1 BTC prize on: September 26, 2015, 06:51:14 AM
Primedice username: Betwrong
Primedice join date:   Nov 13th 2014
Price you are guessing: $277.77
13091  Economy / Services / Re: Suggest Token Name and get 0.001 BTC on: September 25, 2015, 07:32:41 PM
Cryptoken

It took me some time to come up with that name  Smiley but I hope you'll find it helpful. Also Google gives About 5,040 results on the word so I don't really know whether it's taken already.
13092  Economy / Economics / Re: What's pushing up the price today ( Sept 24th ) on: September 25, 2015, 07:14:37 PM
And why are they all buying today?

If I'm not mistaken, Bitcoin has recently been officially classed as a commodity in the US (by the CFTC). That means it can be traded like gold or oil at, say, Nymex (oil) or Comex (gold)...

Meanwhile, in Soviet Russia possession of Bitcoin (let alone trading) is about to become a criminal offense

No... they are banning it's use for buying things...  Like they are doing with the USD, etc unwittingly which is amusing to me.

Really? What are your sources?

Mine confirm than anything including mining, trading, and even spreading information about Bitcoin as well as distributing Bitcoin related software will incur either a penalty, correctional labor, or imprisonment under a criminal prosecution. This is today's news...

Actually they only are planning to do that: "According to a report of Interfax, the Russian government lately approached the regulators with its plan to criminalize the use and issuance of Bitcoin under the new money surrogate law. If enacted, the amended bill will effectively impose ban on all kind of Bitcoin activities, including trading, mining and transactions."(c)http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/09/24/russia-planning-to-criminalize-bitcoin-activities/

Did I say anything to the contrary?
Well, firstly, I'm not a big fan of "Soviet Russia" as you call it (and you are right in a way, the country is really step by step going now back to it's Soviet past), but I just thought that your words

Quote
anything including mining, trading, and even spreading information about Bitcoin as well as distributing Bitcoin related software will incur either a penalty, correctional labor, or imprisonment under a criminal prosecution.


may make an impression that this is already happening right now.




13093  Economy / Economics / Re: What's pushing up the price today ( Sept 24th ) on: September 25, 2015, 06:19:09 PM
And why are they all buying today?

If I'm not mistaken, Bitcoin has recently been officially classed as a commodity in the US (by the CFTC). That means it can be traded like gold or oil at, say, Nymex (oil) or Comex (gold)...

Meanwhile, in Soviet Russia possession of Bitcoin (let alone trading) is about to become a criminal offense

No... they are banning it's use for buying things...  Like they are doing with the USD, etc unwittingly which is amusing to me.

Really? What are your sources?

Mine confirm than anything including mining, trading, and even spreading information about Bitcoin as well as distributing Bitcoin related software will incur either a penalty, correctional labor, or imprisonment under a criminal prosecution. This is today's news...

Actually they only are planning to do that: "According to a report of Interfax, the Russian government lately approached the regulators with its plan to criminalize the use and issuance of Bitcoin under the new money surrogate law. If enacted, the amended bill will effectively impose ban on all kind of Bitcoin activities, including trading, mining and transactions."(c)http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/09/24/russia-planning-to-criminalize-bitcoin-activities/

But that is not good either.

13094  Local / India / Re: Beware of scam emails on: September 25, 2015, 06:08:49 PM
There are at least two of the red flags in that email:

1. WE HAVE FOUND THE HIDDEN GEM

2. ... ultimate opportunity to get 150% return for the first time in history

Maybe there are even more of them, but the two mentioned above would be enough for me.)
13095  Other / Off-topic / Re: What makes you happy? on: September 25, 2015, 12:59:30 PM
Watching movies made by Coen Brothers, Christopher Nolan, Charlie Kaufman, Woody Allen and such. This really makes me happy most of the time. I think I'd be happy also if BTC price will rise above 1k USD. Reading a good book is also an option btw.)
13096  Economy / Gambling / Re: Advanced Betting strategy (low risk, low reward) on: September 25, 2015, 12:48:51 PM
I am a pretty old gambler, and I know how gambling works, you play against the odds of the house. Yet, there is still a possibility to win in the long term, all based on luck of course, but with a good gambling strategy , atleast we can manage the risk.

So this is all based on luck, i`m not claiming that you will win guaranteed, because that is impossible, but if you add some basic risk management to the equation, you can play much safer!

Here is what I thought:

This strategy only works for dice/coin flipping type games where you got a 50% winrate.


So there aren't many gambling strategies out there, let's analyze them each:

1) Martingale
The problem with martingale is that the profits increase linearly, but the risk increases exponentially with every bet, so martingale really empties your account fast, and the profit is not worth the risk, even though it gives the illusion of loss-protection in the short term, but the risk is not worth it

2) Naked betting
So this strategy is when you just bet the same amount, or varying amounts, without any type of pattern, each dice roll. This strategy is more safe than the martingale believe it or not, it might have a less win rate, but it doesn't empties out your account, plus you could win more.
The problem here is that, usually there is a small percent that 1 player could win at all in the end, and you have no way of knowing.


3) Variance hunter (my strategy)

Ok so we know the problems with the 2 above strategies, so I thought i make my own observations. My strategy plays off the variance, and it exploits the consecutive rolls. Now don't lecture me about the Gambler's fallacy problem , because I know that, I`ve studied mathematical statistics many years, plus I`m not claiming you will get any edge with this strategy, because you won't. The only advantage you will get by using my strategy is that you can manage your risk and have a low risk , low reward type gambling experience!

Ok so here it is:

Requirements:
  • You need a gambling game with 50% winrate  (dice,coin flip game), this is a must, but the payout ratio is obviously gonna be <x1 due to house edge, so that doesn't matter. Ex:  50% winrate with 0.98x payout rate = 2% house edge game
  • The lower the house edge is the better , and the house edge must be constant, it doesnt work in varying house edge casinos
  • The casino must be provably fair, and must use real random numbers or atleast pseudo-random with ultra-high entropy
  • The casino should have an API system, because this system is hard to do manually, you will probably need a programmer to do this, because it might involve betting 5000 times in a row
  • The casino should have a low minimum betting amount, the lower the better
  • The casino should not have any betting size restrictions, you should be able to bet 5-10% of your balance in a bet
  • The casino should be very fast to roll, and not have any restrictions on rolling because you will probably have to bet many thousands of times

The strategy:


-You will bet on 1 outcome the minimum betting size, until X amount of consecutive events happen, then switch to the other outcome, that X should be set according to how many bets you will going to play (more on this later)

Ex.: bet on heads 1 satoshi, and after 10 consecutive heads happen, then switch to tails.
The same if you bet on heads and 10 consecutive tails happen, then you stay at heads, so you only look at what happened consecutively X times, and switch to the opposite outcome next bet.

-After the X amount of consecutive bets happened, you switch to the other bet, and increase the betting size to Y% of the balance, presumably < 10% / bet to have moderate risk, but more on this later.

-After the Y% bet happened, regardless of you won or lost, you resume to bet the minimum amount , until another consecutive event row happens.

EXAMPLE SETUP:

This is what I use personally:

I use Satoshidice and it has a 1.9% house edge and it has nice API platform so you can make a gambling bot. Since satoshidice doesnt have changeable outcomes, I use a slightly modified version of my strategy, which is essentially the same but it's easier to do. Instead of waiting for heads/tails to switch, I just look at consecutive wins or losses. So I bet 100 satoshi, the minimum , until I get X consecutive losses, then I increase the bet on the next roll.

I usually gamble 0.5 BTC balance.
Bet size: 100 satoshi
Trigger: after 20 consecutive losses I increase the bet to 8% of my balance so that is 0.04BTC
Risk %:  8% of my balance after the 20 consecutive events, then reset to base bet size of 100 satoshi.

RESULT:

You will most likely end up either at -1-10% or win the risked %. In rare cases you will lose more than 20%, it is possible but not that probable.
So it is more like a small reward 7-8% gain/session, with the same risk, and a long term betting strategy.


BETTING SIMULATOR

Well I made a simulator for my strategy that simulates the exact strategy I described above, and I share it with you. If you want the source code too, then PM me.



Download link: http://s000.tinyupload.com/?file_id=62215764482435873397
SHA 256 hash: 22ca3bb65893eb4b9637bd4aea6cacacfa3ea7be27a989310e9efd32b599908a       (https://md5file.com/calculator)
Virus Scan: https://www.virustotal.com/en/file/22ca3bb65893eb4b9637bd4aea6cacacfa3ea7be27a989310e9efd32b599908a/analysis/1443089362/


What do you think guys?

Disclaimer: Use this strategy at your own risk, the strategy doesn't guarantee anything, gambling is risky anyway. I`m not responsible for any of your losses if you lose.

Ok, since you've asked, here's my opinion on your strategy.

Quote
after 20 consecutive losses I increase the bet to 8% of my balance so that is 0.04BTC

As you know you can lose 2-3 times after that increasing, which is 0.08-0.12BTC and to get that amount back will take lots of time and what is more important lots of risk too. Most likely you'll lose everything trying to recover. Of course you can win with that strategy if you are lucky, but you can also win betting 0.5 BTC just one time on 0.98x payout.
13097  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: ★☆★ MagicalDice.com - 0.1 BTC giveaway - Post what you like about MD to win! ★☆★ on: September 25, 2015, 10:59:55 AM
Magicaldice name: Betwrong

What's your favorite thing about magicaldice: The rolls are faster than on any dice site I've been on so far. The layout of the site is good for your eyes (if you know what I mean Smiley )

What is something you think we can improve on: I think the LIVE CHAT needs some improvement though. You can make a Rainbot or a Quizbot or both. Entertain people somehow so they feel good not only from playing but from just being on the site.
13098  Other / Off-topic / Re: What's your least favorite thing about Bitcoin? on: September 25, 2015, 10:01:05 AM
The least favorite thing about Bitcoin apart from slow transactions sometimes is that vast majority of the people still never heard about it or if they did they think it's something they can ignore.
13099  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Bitcoin Mine Cooling Options - What are my choices? on: September 25, 2015, 09:31:54 AM
I'll just hire 10 asians to blow on the miners as they go.
10/10 would asian labour again.
What a racist

I believe he was joking.  

Of course he was. But the joke is not very nice still.

EDIT: Thanks fro sharing the article btw. I think Direct Air Cooling is a good choice but you'll need a good filtering solution as they say and that's right.
13100  Other / Politics & Society / Re: We talk, therefore we exist. on: September 25, 2015, 09:28:18 AM
Just filosofical, I imagine this like some caffe... I`m sitting, drinking coffe and smoke my cigarete. I imagine u do pretty the same, just someone drink juice, or water... beer or coctail. Well it`s like that for now, tomorow will be diffrent. We all spending time here, sometimes it`s good ( when we win some prizes) sometimes its not so good ( when we loose). Sometimes we just talk with people and reading post`s, listen music... I will stop with filosofy, i wish welcome to everyone. Sit, relax and take some drink and talk. With one word EXIST.

I'd say when we talk to each other only then we exist, when we talk to ourselves we are just pretending to be alive. We NEED somebody to talk to because we want to be alive. And that's great that sometimes we can find someone who will listen and who will talk to us. Thats one of the best things life can do to anyone.
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