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13161  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: do you play loteries ,did you won something on: September 26, 2015, 08:23:48 AM
I did play when I was a schoolkid, long time ago. I was living in the Soviet Union and at the time we had only the lotteries held by the state. There was saying at the time, kind of a joke, "Do not gamble with the state!" Smiley I was a schoolkid, I wanted to do everything backwards, so I gambled. I won several times the ammounts which were equivalent to $1-$3. Not much but at the time that was pretty nice. ... Never played lotteries since then.
13162  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What do you know about Venezuela? on: September 26, 2015, 07:50:31 AM
What do I know about Venezuela?

1. The level of corruption in the state is incredibly high.

2. There is no extradition treaty between US and Venezuela.

3. It's a beautiful country with nice simple people who just don't understand that the politicians deceive them every time.
13163  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Saudi Prince Arrested For Sex Assault On Woman Who Ran Screaming From His Home on: September 26, 2015, 07:33:19 AM
Quote

Al-Saud was freed Thursday afternoon after posting $300,000 bail, jail records show.


As a non-American I'm wondering is it possible for him just to flee to his country now. I mean he can easily leave those $300,000 behind, or is it not so simple? I hope it's not. The scumbag should go to jail.
13164  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: [Primedice.com] Guess the price of BTC competition - Free to enter - 1 BTC prize on: September 26, 2015, 06:51:14 AM
Primedice username: Betwrong
Primedice join date:   Nov 13th 2014
Price you are guessing: $277.77
13165  Economy / Services / Re: Suggest Token Name and get 0.001 BTC on: September 25, 2015, 07:32:41 PM
Cryptoken

It took me some time to come up with that name  Smiley but I hope you'll find it helpful. Also Google gives About 5,040 results on the word so I don't really know whether it's taken already.
13166  Economy / Economics / Re: What's pushing up the price today ( Sept 24th ) on: September 25, 2015, 07:14:37 PM
And why are they all buying today?

If I'm not mistaken, Bitcoin has recently been officially classed as a commodity in the US (by the CFTC). That means it can be traded like gold or oil at, say, Nymex (oil) or Comex (gold)...

Meanwhile, in Soviet Russia possession of Bitcoin (let alone trading) is about to become a criminal offense

No... they are banning it's use for buying things...  Like they are doing with the USD, etc unwittingly which is amusing to me.

Really? What are your sources?

Mine confirm than anything including mining, trading, and even spreading information about Bitcoin as well as distributing Bitcoin related software will incur either a penalty, correctional labor, or imprisonment under a criminal prosecution. This is today's news...

Actually they only are planning to do that: "According to a report of Interfax, the Russian government lately approached the regulators with its plan to criminalize the use and issuance of Bitcoin under the new money surrogate law. If enacted, the amended bill will effectively impose ban on all kind of Bitcoin activities, including trading, mining and transactions."(c)http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/09/24/russia-planning-to-criminalize-bitcoin-activities/

Did I say anything to the contrary?
Well, firstly, I'm not a big fan of "Soviet Russia" as you call it (and you are right in a way, the country is really step by step going now back to it's Soviet past), but I just thought that your words

Quote
anything including mining, trading, and even spreading information about Bitcoin as well as distributing Bitcoin related software will incur either a penalty, correctional labor, or imprisonment under a criminal prosecution.


may make an impression that this is already happening right now.




13167  Economy / Economics / Re: What's pushing up the price today ( Sept 24th ) on: September 25, 2015, 06:19:09 PM
And why are they all buying today?

If I'm not mistaken, Bitcoin has recently been officially classed as a commodity in the US (by the CFTC). That means it can be traded like gold or oil at, say, Nymex (oil) or Comex (gold)...

Meanwhile, in Soviet Russia possession of Bitcoin (let alone trading) is about to become a criminal offense

No... they are banning it's use for buying things...  Like they are doing with the USD, etc unwittingly which is amusing to me.

Really? What are your sources?

Mine confirm than anything including mining, trading, and even spreading information about Bitcoin as well as distributing Bitcoin related software will incur either a penalty, correctional labor, or imprisonment under a criminal prosecution. This is today's news...

Actually they only are planning to do that: "According to a report of Interfax, the Russian government lately approached the regulators with its plan to criminalize the use and issuance of Bitcoin under the new money surrogate law. If enacted, the amended bill will effectively impose ban on all kind of Bitcoin activities, including trading, mining and transactions."(c)http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/09/24/russia-planning-to-criminalize-bitcoin-activities/

But that is not good either.

13168  Local / India / Re: Beware of scam emails on: September 25, 2015, 06:08:49 PM
There are at least two of the red flags in that email:

1. WE HAVE FOUND THE HIDDEN GEM

2. ... ultimate opportunity to get 150% return for the first time in history

Maybe there are even more of them, but the two mentioned above would be enough for me.)
13169  Other / Off-topic / Re: What makes you happy? on: September 25, 2015, 12:59:30 PM
Watching movies made by Coen Brothers, Christopher Nolan, Charlie Kaufman, Woody Allen and such. This really makes me happy most of the time. I think I'd be happy also if BTC price will rise above 1k USD. Reading a good book is also an option btw.)
13170  Economy / Gambling / Re: Advanced Betting strategy (low risk, low reward) on: September 25, 2015, 12:48:51 PM
I am a pretty old gambler, and I know how gambling works, you play against the odds of the house. Yet, there is still a possibility to win in the long term, all based on luck of course, but with a good gambling strategy , atleast we can manage the risk.

So this is all based on luck, i`m not claiming that you will win guaranteed, because that is impossible, but if you add some basic risk management to the equation, you can play much safer!

Here is what I thought:

This strategy only works for dice/coin flipping type games where you got a 50% winrate.


So there aren't many gambling strategies out there, let's analyze them each:

1) Martingale
The problem with martingale is that the profits increase linearly, but the risk increases exponentially with every bet, so martingale really empties your account fast, and the profit is not worth the risk, even though it gives the illusion of loss-protection in the short term, but the risk is not worth it

2) Naked betting
So this strategy is when you just bet the same amount, or varying amounts, without any type of pattern, each dice roll. This strategy is more safe than the martingale believe it or not, it might have a less win rate, but it doesn't empties out your account, plus you could win more.
The problem here is that, usually there is a small percent that 1 player could win at all in the end, and you have no way of knowing.


3) Variance hunter (my strategy)

Ok so we know the problems with the 2 above strategies, so I thought i make my own observations. My strategy plays off the variance, and it exploits the consecutive rolls. Now don't lecture me about the Gambler's fallacy problem , because I know that, I`ve studied mathematical statistics many years, plus I`m not claiming you will get any edge with this strategy, because you won't. The only advantage you will get by using my strategy is that you can manage your risk and have a low risk , low reward type gambling experience!

Ok so here it is:

Requirements:
  • You need a gambling game with 50% winrate  (dice,coin flip game), this is a must, but the payout ratio is obviously gonna be <x1 due to house edge, so that doesn't matter. Ex:  50% winrate with 0.98x payout rate = 2% house edge game
  • The lower the house edge is the better , and the house edge must be constant, it doesnt work in varying house edge casinos
  • The casino must be provably fair, and must use real random numbers or atleast pseudo-random with ultra-high entropy
  • The casino should have an API system, because this system is hard to do manually, you will probably need a programmer to do this, because it might involve betting 5000 times in a row
  • The casino should have a low minimum betting amount, the lower the better
  • The casino should not have any betting size restrictions, you should be able to bet 5-10% of your balance in a bet
  • The casino should be very fast to roll, and not have any restrictions on rolling because you will probably have to bet many thousands of times

The strategy:


-You will bet on 1 outcome the minimum betting size, until X amount of consecutive events happen, then switch to the other outcome, that X should be set according to how many bets you will going to play (more on this later)

Ex.: bet on heads 1 satoshi, and after 10 consecutive heads happen, then switch to tails.
The same if you bet on heads and 10 consecutive tails happen, then you stay at heads, so you only look at what happened consecutively X times, and switch to the opposite outcome next bet.

-After the X amount of consecutive bets happened, you switch to the other bet, and increase the betting size to Y% of the balance, presumably < 10% / bet to have moderate risk, but more on this later.

-After the Y% bet happened, regardless of you won or lost, you resume to bet the minimum amount , until another consecutive event row happens.

EXAMPLE SETUP:

This is what I use personally:

I use Satoshidice and it has a 1.9% house edge and it has nice API platform so you can make a gambling bot. Since satoshidice doesnt have changeable outcomes, I use a slightly modified version of my strategy, which is essentially the same but it's easier to do. Instead of waiting for heads/tails to switch, I just look at consecutive wins or losses. So I bet 100 satoshi, the minimum , until I get X consecutive losses, then I increase the bet on the next roll.

I usually gamble 0.5 BTC balance.
Bet size: 100 satoshi
Trigger: after 20 consecutive losses I increase the bet to 8% of my balance so that is 0.04BTC
Risk %:  8% of my balance after the 20 consecutive events, then reset to base bet size of 100 satoshi.

RESULT:

You will most likely end up either at -1-10% or win the risked %. In rare cases you will lose more than 20%, it is possible but not that probable.
So it is more like a small reward 7-8% gain/session, with the same risk, and a long term betting strategy.


BETTING SIMULATOR

Well I made a simulator for my strategy that simulates the exact strategy I described above, and I share it with you. If you want the source code too, then PM me.



Download link: http://s000.tinyupload.com/?file_id=62215764482435873397
SHA 256 hash: 22ca3bb65893eb4b9637bd4aea6cacacfa3ea7be27a989310e9efd32b599908a       (https://md5file.com/calculator)
Virus Scan: https://www.virustotal.com/en/file/22ca3bb65893eb4b9637bd4aea6cacacfa3ea7be27a989310e9efd32b599908a/analysis/1443089362/


What do you think guys?

Disclaimer: Use this strategy at your own risk, the strategy doesn't guarantee anything, gambling is risky anyway. I`m not responsible for any of your losses if you lose.

Ok, since you've asked, here's my opinion on your strategy.

Quote
after 20 consecutive losses I increase the bet to 8% of my balance so that is 0.04BTC

As you know you can lose 2-3 times after that increasing, which is 0.08-0.12BTC and to get that amount back will take lots of time and what is more important lots of risk too. Most likely you'll lose everything trying to recover. Of course you can win with that strategy if you are lucky, but you can also win betting 0.5 BTC just one time on 0.98x payout.
13171  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: ★☆★ MagicalDice.com - 0.1 BTC giveaway - Post what you like about MD to win! ★☆★ on: September 25, 2015, 10:59:55 AM
Magicaldice name: Betwrong

What's your favorite thing about magicaldice: The rolls are faster than on any dice site I've been on so far. The layout of the site is good for your eyes (if you know what I mean Smiley )

What is something you think we can improve on: I think the LIVE CHAT needs some improvement though. You can make a Rainbot or a Quizbot or both. Entertain people somehow so they feel good not only from playing but from just being on the site.
13172  Other / Off-topic / Re: What's your least favorite thing about Bitcoin? on: September 25, 2015, 10:01:05 AM
The least favorite thing about Bitcoin apart from slow transactions sometimes is that vast majority of the people still never heard about it or if they did they think it's something they can ignore.
13173  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Bitcoin Mine Cooling Options - What are my choices? on: September 25, 2015, 09:31:54 AM
I'll just hire 10 asians to blow on the miners as they go.
10/10 would asian labour again.
What a racist

I believe he was joking.  

Of course he was. But the joke is not very nice still.

EDIT: Thanks fro sharing the article btw. I think Direct Air Cooling is a good choice but you'll need a good filtering solution as they say and that's right.
13174  Other / Politics & Society / Re: We talk, therefore we exist. on: September 25, 2015, 09:28:18 AM
Just filosofical, I imagine this like some caffe... I`m sitting, drinking coffe and smoke my cigarete. I imagine u do pretty the same, just someone drink juice, or water... beer or coctail. Well it`s like that for now, tomorow will be diffrent. We all spending time here, sometimes it`s good ( when we win some prizes) sometimes its not so good ( when we loose). Sometimes we just talk with people and reading post`s, listen music... I will stop with filosofy, i wish welcome to everyone. Sit, relax and take some drink and talk. With one word EXIST.

I'd say when we talk to each other only then we exist, when we talk to ourselves we are just pretending to be alive. We NEED somebody to talk to because we want to be alive. And that's great that sometimes we can find someone who will listen and who will talk to us. Thats one of the best things life can do to anyone.
13175  Other / Off-topic / Re: What did life teach you? on: September 25, 2015, 09:16:08 AM
Hello Everyone!  Grin
I am sure there are forum users who are too young like 14-16 years old and some are old like 40-50yrs(or 60?) Cheesy

1)So, what did you learned from life? Cheesy
2)What is your age?
3)And what message do you want to convey to the young generation? Smiley
4) What is something you wanted to do in life but you couldn't?
5) Final words? Smiley

Please make sure that the answer is detailed Smiley  Thanks  Wink

1) I'm still learning. I can't say I've learned anything exactly. But something from my life's lessons I can share here I think: The more positive you are, the more positive the world around you will be. That's it so far.
2) 37
3) Do not work for money! Study and enjoy living as an educated person.
4) I've wanted to go on Mars when I was a kid, but I don't anymore.
5) BTC will rule!
13176  Other / Off-topic / Re: Memorable movies on: September 25, 2015, 09:00:47 AM
I forgot to mention "Irrational Man"(2015), a great new movie by  Woody Allen. If you like thought-provoking films than Irrational Man is definitely for you. And do not judge it by the trailer, trust me you will be nicely surprised watching the whole story.
13177  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Can gambling be profitable in long term ? on: September 25, 2015, 08:45:04 AM
If someone which follows the set of rules and be discipline enoff. Can people make 50-100 $ a day just gambling in online casino.....?

In a long term you will always lose. It goes like everything's in this life - you live and then you die. You can't win in a long term in anything. But there are moments when you feel like a winner and that's why we keep on living. That's why we keep on gambling too.  Smiley But you should never bet more than can afford to lose.
13178  Local / India / Re: how earn bitcoins weekly on: September 25, 2015, 08:31:46 AM
Hii friends
I am new here
I want to know about how earn weekly bitcoins
and how?


Please reply and give best suggestions   Huh

From my experience the best way to earn weekly bitcoins is to join a signature campaign. Faucets don't do much comparing to that. Rise your account status to Member and then start looking for the campaigns. Maybe there are some other ways too, but this is the most convenient method (for me at least).
13179  Other / Off-topic / Re: Today is my birthday! on: September 25, 2015, 08:09:32 AM
Happy Birthday! Enjoy every moment of this great day!
I wish u lots of BTC and lots of good friends!  Smiley
13180  Other / Off-topic / Re: BIBINKA WORD GAME! on: September 25, 2015, 08:02:10 AM
Fat Tay Choon went to the Mining Academy in Brazil, east of Satoshi's yurt, where Gavin was kidnapped by the CIA's goons and forced to pretend fucking an anonymous decentralized biscuit—better than all the fish in the Pacific Ocean—but also to defray leeches intelligently with ECDSA fighting qubits for 16.8 dree12, or Phinnaeus must fling toilets towards psy‐ops, without potato smoothies mixed with fried chicken wings from BitMunchies.com, urbanchickennj.com, and Popeye's Bitcoin wallet, which deleted Satoshi's premine ability to cheer very victoriously, none like Butterfly Labs better enabled, but also Pirate crashing AIR applications without the express use of interest-free scams, conspiring with fraudulent sockpuppets and PPTs and..., you troll-herding piece of Shiitake mushroom, go lick Goat's horns until Theymos admits to having a quite erotic fetish involving honey badgers wearing thongs composed of soggy burlap waffles dangling from cosmic linoleum-based iphones running quantum chips explodes spewing deadly acid! b!z screamed out "Light is bright like...like... stars." When Markjamrobin opens the isolated window, he sees three pigs together in bed. Kouye and myself laugh when chinese food falls the impact kills Obama Bin ladin whoever thinks he may be terrorist, is correct but hates the bitcoin logo. Earth has snakes. Currently, the other species have decimated to tiny groups called "marko solo" whatever time it all comes and ends? However, Bitcoin's acidity level dipped causing catastrophic double-spends!

Meanwhile, AntiOps was confused by the awkward change to his penis melting uncontrollably. Vanilla Ice perfume spritzed onto cheese and greasy slime covered with babies boiled in a smelly old heatsink. But it tasted like shit therefore it poisoned his blood although he did survive. Reproductive organisms attacked the internal testicle which caused terrible congestion somehow. Evolution then terminated the smelly old business thank the inability of AntiOps to lock Satoshi's thread. In a transactional forum there was a debate about hacking unprotected accounts, however the debate shortly ended.

Phinnaeus Gage, king pluto, duke of the people. Returned one of his loans that he fraudulently claimed without declaring intentionally. Although this was bullshit. Earth was hit by a meteor which cause catastrophic events which cause people to cause mass destruction by proxy voting it was documented recently on the news that oranges are disguised anti-gravity pockets which have giant bears attacked Zeus because bitcoin accidentally crashed to Mars which created spaceships and aliens who pretended being humans wearing hats on their toes.

Altcoin suck on apples and oranges too. Megacoin is the most shit sucker of apples and  melons ever. Most people love to troll others. Evolution is a slow process which created forks. It is beneficial to wash your feet because it distributes bacteria and oil, notwithstanding the beneficial attributes which are how chocolate arouses some of the miners brains. Today was an abysmal event which caused many abnormal but not smart bitcoiners because many of them are cute animals who were insane because of excessive oreo consumption. One watermelon is not love how people try me explotation Maybe Heisenberg Breaking bad control guy director or masturbation my time vampire drinks urine not lemon tek and water supernatural.

LEALANA is fat looking because pizza is sour with pickles which are sexy and never rot. So many people eat pizza it's unbelievable. The news said that pizza is bought mainly with anchovies which results in big wet weather which had massive gusts of wind with pouring milk down on everyones throat because it feels great! Although honey is very sweet taste it makes when it is served hot it melts softly but slowly.
The universe is populated with many planets which were destroyed by pirateat40. Cyborgs then warped to the zoo and ate mushroom with a aerospace technician. Bitcoin has used a lot resources from peoples although people smell like melons.

Ipods suck. Androids rule. Altcoins also suck peanuts. Bitcoin is the greatest idea that has ever been created by man although litecoin sucks? Once upon a time Gandalf went to wal-mart to dry her hair. Minecraft is the best game in universe because chickens cluck. 231134421 is one crazy big ass monkey. What is with people posting replies still. Terraria is a crazy game which requires extreme concentration. This can result in health cubes; Parentheses are a pain in the brain. This noodle is disgusting. Although spaceships cry waterfalls they are magical little elves. Golden towns is very annoying and smell like bacon. Celebrities are awesome and smart. But, evolution taught us that butterflys are ugly.

Vitamin D is important to scam Taras and raise taxes which would cause the world to go crazy but not insane. Obama is the president now. Alot of gamers will illustrate sony that nintendo is leading the infiltration of Iran. Microsoft Windows was salivating pedophiles of the coastal farts. Yet the banana shrank. What was doge poo doing under the bridge with bridge cleaner? He was just he's aren't because something something different like seems incorrect, because we fucked. Yet prunes prunes are very bad lad's yet unknown to fuckers SWEARING. Banana monkey is not virgin-horse. Corn.

This disappoints satan more than satoshi because he ate hydrochloric pools and he fucked whores who are sick shemales shemales shemales BANGCOCK! God smited non-believers with dicks on a stick. They shat together sitting upside-down flicking birdies. Baezl'bub slept with Hitler inside a bomb ticking furiously and hodling. That was awesome. Bitmit made belt so that walruses can shit on his dick and eat mushroom full of wonderful shit, he HODL'd BTCs and Dogecoin with a succubus sperm from first blowjob stories.

Nefarious words spoken shit at bitcointalk and destroyed uranus with a big-ass Spaceship mouth that eats goats flying shuttle that revolves expressly and quietly to hell. Gamma flux destroyed Litecoin with a barracks producing Atreides shit and Kadafi. Same Binladen puppet goxed clients sucking lollipops shaped like mixed frapuccino lids. Goku start this fight prematurely in Odessa Klondike's yard. Winter is not shitty. Gooches. Seven. Humanity sold pubes to Zeus. Nevertheless, Cinnamon was crying. Millennium breakdown caused diversification methheads cardinally. Hyper-inflation, epidemics with marshmallows made by government chodes and yeah. The End. No. Yes. Lies. Stop. Can. Do aliens have any bitcoins? No. Instead, PPC acts quickly like FTL shit, riffraff toys.

Miracles happen like cannibals spitting sinew and elephants which innocent love and shit has never fucked up! Dank has killed bysexuals... wait, when did Karpeles said/say McDonald's sucks? Colonel Tom sex-machine The 3.14159265358th must fook anything that goes into a section. Beaware of spellcheckers. Fantômas portuguese are sobriquet of Fernão who called them Coads-nigs! They say we are azoth, biblical tittynopes who can't mine the janiceps'. He biblically took Rosenzweig and ended this game. And then wanked, wanked clitoris next door. This was done. Moreover, crack was rapidly dephosphorylated due to complications anhidrotically, metaphorically whores go mooooooooo and ahhhhhhhhhhhhh while jon snow watch has ended this thread for good.

Not... Actually, maybe futuristically, Vod (MIA) sailing CASASCIUS up Padma Lakshmi's waxed butt and... Nevermind, but acknowledging that Gavin held security. This marks, categorically, that will create scientific controvertist of global heliolatry problems indistinguishably noticeable filipino heritage, unbeknownst to Slenderman XT phenomena. GLEB sucked smoothie's brains using juicy zombies, dicks, Popsicles, and alien vaginas to rotten flesh of Vod. Meanwhile, giant marsupials are having suicidal sex appeal for four tentacles, watching child whoopee. Therefore, vegetables are unpretentiously super[...]docious. Fruits are rotten potatoes, avouchment vouched x10 malware because aliens kidnapped JarJar, mercilessly LeFodorliar and Gleb Gamow lived days along seashore, Theymos abused his Authoritah by forcing a purple pill To Fly! Serendipitously, awsome! Then I started UFOing on their ass, savagely. But, it is impeccable to realize I farted psychedelic asparagus smoothies. However, Mexico is shit and... Rephrase that, corporations syria declared terrorists irreproachable because malevolence misappropriates monetary suffrage suggesting termination.

Meanwhile, yogurt spill has begun to fall onto houses and cars, hawkishly attempting to grab two crayons, inserting phallic Popsicles® into Theymos' abysm until... POOP! The excruciating pain took aeons to appreciate plethoric folliculitis silvestris poop generator. Why nidificate the indigenous spirit called "erection"? Prepossessingly, pneumonoultramicroscopicsilicovolcanoconiosis a discomfortable endoplasmic tumescent pineapple tree branch rectally QuickSeller escrow. Involution, presumptuously titin pop up inconsiderately - Tuesday - when pokemon (Pokémon)'s Pikachu flashbacked borders dementia caused horrendous pain inside Agumon's PocketPussy™.

Daft Punk punked Dank with pussy heavy hookah shot whilst levitating abroad oceans blue that fadedly waved the unseen quote yet cited. Unjust superexcrescences excuses me because of Neotox produced such force by Poseidon's Trident of Taured. Now, albeit-albeit DARKCOIN-SCAMCOIN but tried to interlock coins out of your anal cavity filled lordly exponentially with bold pumpkins wiggling back to school days yesterday morning. Onomatopoeias ate language. Rigveda inside coupons collectively jumped over the "Core Mission". Pussies annihilate doge.

Pythons and anacondas don't squirt unless you got into buns coin phlegm on their
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