Once withdrawn from Gox there should be no need to dump elsewhere as you already profited from the low buy price, still i guess the fear of others blind dumping may spark a race and bring down the price.
Am i missing something?
You are falsely assuming that Bitcoin speculators are rational actors. |
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Could you elaborate what you mean precisely? What I understand as arbitrage is buying at one place to sell at the other to pocket the difference. Do you just mean that people will send increased amounts of money to Bitstamp if they see the price lower than elsewhere?
The situation maybe that people, particularly speculators who are in it for fiat profit will send their coins straight to stap from gox to realise a 100% profit fairly easily. If you have fiat you can still send it to gox so there is a good chance there are people with a fair bit of money that have sent money to gox literally taking the risk they will start withdrawals and they can dump asap on stamp. I think the transaction sizes on the blockchain will show how many coins are moving after gox allows btc withdrawals albeit some, no one can know how much, will be moving to personal storage off gox but not onto another exchange. EDIT: Sepa withdrawals from Stamp are speedy in my experience as well. Plus the general excess of coins is sure to lower the price on the other exchanges. My only concern is that a large flood of withdrawls could drain every exchange of liquidity. That could be very scary. |
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Oh, I was only talking about arbitrage fixing the price skew on bitstamp if MtGox released the bitcoins. I see we have a misunderstanding.
Could you elaborate what you mean precisely? What I understand as arbitrage is buying at one place to sell at the other to pocket the difference. Do you just mean that people will send increased amounts of money to Bitstamp if they see the price lower than elsewhere? Yes, that was basically what I was saying. I suppose my wording might have been confusing. I only used it because I was referring to all exchanges originally, not just bitstamp. |
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Guys, what arbitrage? USD cannot flee MtGox, that's the thing. JPY and SEPA withdrawals are very delayed as well now with 5-6 weeks plus they have ridiculously small daily quotas for the entire exchange. There can be no meaningful arbitrage with these conditions, near all the fiat funds would stay stuck at the emptygox.
I was referring to arbitrage on bitstamp, which is pretty liquid from what I can tell. How would an arbitrageur eliminate a price disparity between MtGox and Bitstamp if he does not buy on Bitstamp and sell on MtGox? Oh, I was only talking about arbitrage fixing the price skew on bitstamp if MtGox released the bitcoins. I see we have a misunderstanding. |
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Guys, what arbitrage? USD cannot flee MtGox, that's the thing. JPY and SEPA withdrawals are very delayed as well now with 5-6 weeks plus they have ridiculously small daily quotas for the entire exchange. There can be no meaningful arbitrage with these conditions, near all the fiat funds would stay stuck at the emptygox.
I was referring to arbitrage on bitstamp, which is pretty liquid from what I can tell. |
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You guys just seem like you could use this:   I'm still waiting for someone to factor in the meme-to-article ratio on /r/bitcoin into their trading bot. |
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Yay we going up... For no fucking reason... again... So stupid...
Get used to , we've gone up so many times with no reason , and downside also it's nothing that special anymore. Was hoping for cheap coins but it is totally boring @stamp If you think bitstamp is boring, take a look at campbx. It's like the switzerland of bitcoin exchanges. |
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After the doors open the price on Gox is going to shoot up to a premium very quickly. This will drag the other exchanges up with it and when the arbitraging kicks in it will reestablish the old disparity with Gox coins being 5-10% more expensive than other exchanges. I think he is more concerned that people will take their bitcoins to other exchanges and upset the bitcoin-to-fiat ratios on these exchanges. This would only last until arbitrage kicks in, which would take about a week. |
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It appears that even though MtGox and Bitstamp have nearly decoupled, they are still very weakly correlated in directional bias.
I think it's quite obvious that MtGox is the main price driver at this point. The other exchanges may have decoupled but the state of MtGox and the question whether it will survive and withdrawals will be restored is still very important for the price at this moment. A higher Gox price will be associated with a higher chance of good news coming out of MtGox and this will cause other exchanges to rise as well with it. What I have been pondering is whether this directional bias will also be the case if they reinstate withdrawals, or whether the surplus of BTC would drag down the other exchanges. I don't think this can be found out any other way than empirically, so I'm going to be watching very closely, because this will likely decide whether or not we have a longer term bear market. So far, Bitstamp looks strong to me. I don't see why the freed bitcoin would cause more than a small glitch in the other exchanges. Bitstamp is closely linked to Coinbase, so I don't think that there will be a substantial lack of fiat. |
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*Facepalm*
I see, I forgot the .jpg. Thank you.
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To sleep or not to sleep?  When is Gox coming out with news? I'm willing to bet that today is not the day for a press release. I'm guessing that they will say something. It won't be very informative, but it will be something. |
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 Check the source of my comment. I'm just using the image link on the imgur page. |
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If Gox goes up now would it not only be because they are prepping to withdrawl coins and sell anywhere else? Everybody else better be prepping some dollars to exploit this non-Gox dump coming up here soon.
The uptick is indicative of new fiat hitting Gox on Monday morning. I just sent $3,000 not 15 minutes ago and it is now sitting in my account. Fortune favours the brave... Good luck! Stupidity is often mistaken for bravery. |
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If Gox goes up now would it not only be because they are prepping to withdrawl coins and sell anywhere else? Everybody else better be prepping some dollars to exploit this non-Gox dump coming up here soon.
The uptick is indicative of new fiat hitting Gox on Monday morning. I just sent $3,000 not 15 minutes ago and it is now sitting in my account. |
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I'm sorry for not knowing, but can someone help me get my imgur pictures to display on the forum. I keep getting the stupid proxy error box.
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Faster % or faster net value?
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35$ gap between BTC-e and Stamp.
Why is this? This is about 5%. Is arbitrage not functional between the two exchanges? No one wants to lock their money up in bank transfers for a week during all this volatility I guess. |
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This discussion is getting out of control. I have to say this was one if the most crazy weeks ever. Hope Monday will bring something positive and not an apocalypse.
How many Goxopalypse's have we had so far? |
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Anyone care to explain to me why in the name of Lord are the "liquid" exchanges (such as presumably Stamp / BTCe) follow the Gox price trends ? Why do we need to panic buy whenever there's some random dude that buys 100 BTCs at $200 each on Gox ?! Why do we panic sell when they panic sell ?!
It's another Universe in there, that has its own rules, people !
where do you think Mark is dumping his cheap coins? The last place anyone would expect. Campbx |
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