We really need a better option market around here.
i agree, but you cannot be a market maker without a way to short the btc in order to hedge the put contracts written, it's suicide to sell naked puts on btc. Just having calls like what the OP did doesnt do much. So until there is a way to short btc, you wont see any kind of real option exchanges for btc. |
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2) 50 BTC (20 shares) = 3 btc a month
So i really dont understand why anyone will buy asic shares?
refer to #2. Instead of BTC lets think in $'s for a moment. If there was an investment that you could put $50k into and it yields $3k a month...would that not be a sick yield? Yes..it would. So much so that the share price would run up at least 300% to bring down the yield a bit..still accounting for risk. This is why people are buying ASICMINER...and we don't have to worry about our shiny new ASICS that become obsolete in 2 months I understand if you compare to a normal high dividend paying stock such as a reit etf that returns 6% a year this sounds like a great return currently as everyone who responded to my original post keep pointing out. Lets even ignore reality and put aside the fact this is just a guy in the basement paying you whatever he wants and could disappear tomorrow and it doesnt even have a legal binding contract holding the person liable or backed by a us-based llc. Lets assume this is legit triple A rated corp that will not disappear, and freidcat is the most honorable man in the world who returns 100% of the profit to the share holders. Even with those assumptions if you just look at the term structure, there is a static pool of hash power which generates btc and they are distributed to the share holders. If the difficulty increases as it has, the payout becomes less & less. Then the argument becomes new hardware will be added to counter that, so where do you guys think the $$ for the new hardware will come from? friedcat is not going to pay for those hardware out of his own pocket just so you can maintain your payout, only way to pay the new hardware will be from the dividend which means all share holder will take a hit to maintain their future income, rinse and repeat as difficulty continues to rise. It's a zero sum game without a winner aka ponzi, as the cash flow (or in this case btc flow will always be negative) This is not rocket science, it's no different than mining on your own but forced to pay a dividend each week to your brother who gave you the money to buy the hardware initially...as difficulty continue to raise. The bottom line is, the share holders are betting friedcat will be able to hold this up for at least 17 months to breakeven, then however much longer this operation lasts will be profit. Noone knows exactly how much income freidcat is actually getting, i am hoping he's getting significantly more income per share than the dividend paid, so he can maintain this 0.02 payout without much effort as difficulty continue to increase. Truly a game of musical chairs, and the last one left standing is the ...?  |
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You don't get it. Regardless of who will deliver and when, a 13GH/s blade priced at aprox. 45BTC will never ROI.
I have a feeling. You came to BTC during this last hype cycle. You just bought your first coins during the bubble, or just after it. You never mined before, but you were blinded by both greed and passion, and you bought a $7.000 because you did not really understood how difficulty was going to evolve. I know the feeling, you see in me an account with few posts, but I arrived to BTC during 2011's hype cycle, and like you I started mining BTC in the worst time - during a bubble. I bought GPUs that I had to turn off because they were not profitable (I do not have free electricity as some do). Then, I switched to FPGAs in 2012, and I also turned on my GPUs again during the 2013 bubble. Finally, I made some profits. 2 years after. Because of my experience, I know very well that only a noob will pay 50BTC for 13GH/s.
TL;DR: I don't care who will deliver or not. As you said "nobody is delivering", and still difficulty went from 2 million in January to 22 million NOW. That's a x10 increase in 6 months, and as you said "nobody is delivering". I know for sure that there are private companies investing heavily in private mining operations that will come online in the next few months. I don't care who will deliver to customers, I just know that a 13GH/s blade will not generate 50BTC in 10 months.
The increase in difficulty of the last months should confirm you what I'm saying. Unfortunately these are facts and not speculation.
You said that a buyer of your blade will "get into ROI in 8-10 months for sure". Are you really sure or are you just trying to suck in "the greater fool"? If you are so sure bet 10BTC with me: you say 13GH/s will have generated 50BTC in 10 months after electricity (95% uptime; 0.2usd kw/h electricity). I say NO.
As people like to say in these forums: "put your money where your mouth is".
1) Profitability is largely determined by future $ price per btc, which noone knows including you. 2) The last 2 months gap up is largely a result of asic miner coming online. 3) Asic hardware peddled by bfl/avalon will not ship to the masses in any kind of quantity at the price they retailed, why would you sell your hardware for pennies on dollar and at the same time shoot yourself in the foot. They will continue sell the technical challenge koolaid and ship a few units every few weeks to appear legit. The whole dog and pony show avalon did with their chips to ship a few samples after month of wait, then wait months more (still havent shipped) is laughable, tsmc does not operate that way nor are those first run prototype asic chips they are making. It's all smoke and mirrors designed to delay the asic from the masses. 4) It's bad form to **** on someone's for sale thread especially when the seller looks legit and asking a reasonable market price for his card. Feel free to create your own thread and you can list out 10000 reasons why it's such a bad investment to buy asic blades. |
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Your looking at this completely wrong. Your comparing apples and oranges. When you buy shares of a company on the stock market, I dont know anyone that asks how long until the dividends completely repay the investment 100%. The shares alone hold the value.
You are not considering the capital appreciation if the share prices rises, which it most likely will. At any time you can sell back the shares and get the initial investment (and more) back so you dont have to sweat "breaking even"
I see, so most of you buying those shares are considering this similar to buying stocks in a publicly listed company with sec oversight and proper financial reporting, you are assuming you really own part of the asic miner "company" and all profits made by the "company" are reinvested in growth and shared among its share holders. And this is not just some guy in a basement with a spreadsheet that has your name on it and decide what he wants to pay you each week... Ok now it's clear, i just couldnt figure out why people are buying those "shares".
there is a book called Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham... or Security analysis. Try before you write something, ehm, stupid
It was a question, no need to be rude. Well aware of what value investing is, i work in the capital markets for a living. Maybe you should ask graham what he thinks about paying $250 for an asic miner "share" |
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the only valid explanation i heard is that you also get one-off dividends from hardware sales...so let me ask how much have you "shareholders" actually received per share for the hardware sales so far?
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I never got an answer. Just some first grade math here:
1) 2.5 BTC per share -> 0.036 weekly dividend = 0.145 btc a month = 17 month breakeven
2) 50 BTC (20 shares) = 3 btc a month
3) 50 BTC buys you a 13 GH asic card = 12 BTC a month (factor in whatever difficulty increase it is still significantly better income, and keep in mind the mining shares dividend are also impacted by the difficulty increase).
So i really dont understand why anyone will buy asic shares? what is the point? the return on those are terrible, on top of absolutely insane counterparty risk dependent on some guy who is running a black box that tells you what dividend he will pay.
Why would you not just have a physical card you own with no dependency on third party and make significantly more btc as income? Yet so many smart people are buying those shares...there must be something i am missing?
waiting to be enlightened...
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Hi does anyone know why my share dropped from ~0.023 btc down to 0.017 btc all of sudden? the asic blade is still running fine at around 13GH unchanged, but slush is showing my share dropped quite significantly, dont understand why. 18533 2013-06-12 16:58:56 2:50:56 42352577 29016 0.01728739 241150 25.39820944 5 confirmations left
18532 2013-06-12 14:08:00 1:24:34 20677521 14436 0.01858818 241124 25.54674000 confirmed
18531 2013-06-12 12:43:26 3:23:57 44489992 35634 0.01630258 241115 25.10480000 confirmed <---- now all of sudden only getting 0.017 btc
18530 2013-06-12 09:19:29 0:53:55 9964643 9450 0.02311202 241092 25.07820010 confirmed <---- been getting 0.02X btc for weeks
18529 2013-06-12 08:25:34 0:15:30 2867723 2634 0.02181056 241080 25.24704812 confirmed
18528 2013-06-12 08:10:04 0:23:59 4440359 4128 0.02056921 241076 25.14980000 confirmed
18527 2013-06-12 07:46:05 0:26:42 4758169 4692 0.02249786 241071 25.08490896 confirmed
18526 2013-06-12 07:19:23 3:52:04 43429961 39750 0.02272453 241068 25.33501327 confirmed
18525 2013-06-12 03:27:19 0:39:17 7372985 6258 0.02092896 241039 25.12242555 confirmed
18524 2013-06-12 02:48:02 4:42:35 53459272 48906 0.02458063 241033 25.03670000 confirmed
18523 2013-06-11 22:05:27 1:15:25 14487253 12990 0.02276898 240997 25.52886700 confirmed
18522 2013-06-11 20:50:02 0:42:22 8204486 7422 0.02303774 240990 25.41680000 confirmed
18521 2013-06-11 20:07:40 1:09:37 13291794 12024 0.02252414 240986 25.13792073 confirmed
18520 2013-06-11 18:58:03 0:12:59 2525978 2094 0.02238785 240975 25.18200000 confirmed
18519 2013-06-11 18:45:04 1:21:30 15484599 14298 0.01806674 240973 25.04340000 confirmed
18518 2013-06-11 17:23:34 0:07:48 1515055 1626 0.02680256 240960 25.21290000 confirmed
18517 2013-06-11 17:15:46 2:00:12 22638623 21534 0.02366054 240959 25.04550005 confirmed
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I'll do the math. In 2010 when this post was created, it would cost you $3,000 to buy 15,000/BTC for only $0.20
Now, imagine if you Bought all those bitcoins, and forgot about them until now today.. "oh shit, I've got bitcoins!"..
Lets get to selling for the market exchange prices today!
Sell: 15,000/BTC X $109/USD* Estimated = You made: $1,635,000 USD
In 3 years time, you'd be a millionaire because of bitcoins..
That's $545,000/year just because you had $3,000 to throw
on an *IDEA* that Bitcoins would be worth something later.
Crazy how opportunity hits us in the head, and we couldn't see it at the time.
hindsight 20/20, it's the oldest phenomenal in the market. In 2010 when btc was at $0.2 1) Noone knew its future, at best it was believed it will stay flat. Would you invest $3000 at that time in something throwaway? no sane person would 2) Even if you did, when btc went up to $20, 30, 40, it is almost a certainty you would dig up your dusty wallet and sold all of it, it's human nature. To be able to dump $3000 in something throwaway, then continue hold it when it gained 10000% is very difficult thing to do, even though looking back it may seem like the easiest thing to do... |
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never heard of you, do you take john k escrow until machine is delivered.
Hi Newguy05, At this time, we are not accepting escrow for our services. We have however, tried to provide as much proof of our order as possible. My team of engineers have the PCBs manufactured, and we are ready to mount the chips as soon as they come in. Our estimated time frame is 10 days to mount all 10k chips onto PCBs and then delivering it to you over night. BTC75 includes all shipping cost within the continental USA, international shipping please contact us via PM to address proper shipping price. We look forward to positively contributing to the bitcoin community. BTCBuyer Team. I am interested in buying this but not without escrow via john k until delivery. You are asking someone to give you $7500 in cash equivalent with only a gmail address to show for it. Not happening. |
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168 @ 0.18
t13hydra, i havent been following this thread, are you also offering to assemble the chips with the Klondike PCBs?
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never heard of you, do you take john k escrow until machine is delivered.
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Thanks guys i found the 8 pin pci-e cable and just as stated it has 3 yellow and 5 black. Have 1 last question, cant find the answer in the earlier posts. I understand they all need to be plugged in, but how do you distribute the 3 yellow into the two + holes? Do you just put 2 yellow wire into one hole, then 1 yellow wire into another? and the black ground wires, same? 3 into the - hole, and 2 into the second - hole? thanks!
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Do you have a free pci-e wire on your PSU?
yes it's a modular psu, i have few pci-e wire, is that better than doing the molex route? |
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Hi guys, i got somewhat of an emergency here. This morning i noticed the power plug on my asic miner was burned through (melted?) and the yellow wires turned into black i am assuming from the heat. i followed the instructions in the thread to wire it correctly i think and the asic miner is running fine except this. I am using silencer mk3 bronze certified 600w power supply (high reviews on amazon) if it matters. Can anyone please let me know what i am doing wrong? i have shut off the whole thing until i can find out what happened, dont want to start an electric fire and burn my whole building down  Also is there a safer way to do this, i dont mind spending a bit more cash. thanks!    |
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this would be perfect if you can redesign it and add additional mount for 2x 120mm fan in front of the heatsink similar to dogie's original setup photo. I didnt realize how big a pain in the **** it is to get this thing vertical then put 2 fans in front of it without touching the heatsink...
legos was my solution...
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thank you i will leave it as it is |
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Hi guys, i just got my asic blade setup and have a few questions. 1) is there anyway to monitor the temperature? i dont see any temperature readings in the setting screen and the heatsink is very hot to the touch so i am a little worried 2) Is there anyway to access the setup screen while outside of the network? for example if i am at work is there a way to see or config the setup screen remotely? 3) Is the stratum server suppose to spam so much? i am getting a nonstop stream of spam with below text, is there anything wrong with it? i am using all default settings. Thanks! 2013-06-03 20:38:53,237 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,318 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,365 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,515 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,524 INFO proxy jobs.submit # Submitting 238b0469
2013-06-03 20:38:53,553 INFO proxy jobs.submit # Submitting 025c9983
2013-06-03 20:38:53,592 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,601 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,616 WARNING proxy getwork_listener._on_submit # [91ms] Share from 'gagaliya.worker1' accepted, diff 1
2013-06-03 20:38:53,645 WARNING proxy getwork_listener._on_submit # [92ms] Share from 'gagaliya.worker1' accepted, diff 1
2013-06-03 20:38:53,697 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,750 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,842 INFO proxy jobs.submit # Submitting 64c43d35
2013-06-03 20:38:53,852 INFO proxy jobs.submit # Submitting 21705f0e
2013-06-03 20:38:53,873 INFO proxy jobs.submit # Submitting fcb480cb
2013-06-03 20:38:53,892 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,932 WARNING proxy getwork_listener._on_submit # [89ms] Share from 'gagaliya.worker1' accepted, diff 1
2013-06-03 20:38:53,944 WARNING proxy getwork_listener._on_submit # [92ms] Share from 'gagaliya.worker1' accepted, diff 1
2013-06-03 20:38:53,948 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,963 WARNING proxy getwork_listener._on_submit # [90ms] Share from 'gagaliya.worker1' accepted, diff 1
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Hi guys, apologize in advance for the newbie question. I just got my stratum proxy setup on my mac osx following the standard instructions, all default setting. Everything seem to be running fine and i am seeing a spam of the below text repeated. 1) Is the below text means everything is running okie? the lines that starts with WARNING is that anything to worry about? 2) Also for the same WARNING lines, it ends with "diff 1" what does that mean exactly? difficulty 1? still dont understand what that means. Thank you! 2013-06-03 20:38:53,237 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,318 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,365 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,515 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,524 INFO proxy jobs.submit # Submitting 238b0469
2013-06-03 20:38:53,553 INFO proxy jobs.submit # Submitting 025c9983
2013-06-03 20:38:53,592 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,601 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,616 WARNING proxy getwork_listener._on_submit # [91ms] Share from 'gagaliya.worker1' accepted, diff 1
2013-06-03 20:38:53,645 WARNING proxy getwork_listener._on_submit # [92ms] Share from 'gagaliya.worker1' accepted, diff 1
2013-06-03 20:38:53,697 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,750 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,842 INFO proxy jobs.submit # Submitting 64c43d35
2013-06-03 20:38:53,852 INFO proxy jobs.submit # Submitting 21705f0e
2013-06-03 20:38:53,873 INFO proxy jobs.submit # Submitting fcb480cb
2013-06-03 20:38:53,892 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,932 WARNING proxy getwork_listener._on_submit # [89ms] Share from 'gagaliya.worker1' accepted, diff 1
2013-06-03 20:38:53,944 WARNING proxy getwork_listener._on_submit # [92ms] Share from 'gagaliya.worker1' accepted, diff 1
2013-06-03 20:38:53,948 INFO proxy getwork_listener._on_authorized # Worker 'gagaliya.worker1' asks for new work
2013-06-03 20:38:53,963 WARNING proxy getwork_listener._on_submit # [90ms] Share from 'gagaliya.worker1' accepted, diff 1
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you're an idiot for using them
what should i use then for transact the btc/usd pair? ps: yes it's working now... |
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