so far what i've learned from this subforum: what you are searching for is called elliot wave theory.
I have seen the wheel reinvented 100 times here because the inventors never learned how to pick up a book. |
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based on this ?
No, I used the SMA to trigger my entry. so many people on here have been using the EMA crossover and yet the guru already changed his strategy. Next time before trading, people should do their own backtesting and not choose a trading strategy based on a few trades of an anonymous person. |
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It would be easier to make your own game that uses bitcoins.
The answer is not integrating of the bitcoin into the fiat economy. The answer is complete separation.
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A speculation forum is about the speculation of bitcoin price, not speculation of what you would do winning a lot of bitcoins.
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if it were being calculated correctly
There are a lot of different ways to calculate the movement of a trailing stop. One is not more right than another. What is right is for Bitcoinica telling its clients the formula for calculating the movement of the trailing stop. One way is for a pip for pip movement of the trailing stop with the price. Specifically, Each time the price process reaches a new high, the stop is raised by the difference between the new high and the previous high. You showed that this does not happen on Bitcoinica. Here is a graph for others to get an idea of what is going on. I have posted this data before, but I increased the trailing stop amount by 2.5 for each measurement so that it can be seen on the graph better. The top graph shows the movement of the price (in black) and the trailing stop (in red). The second graph shows the change in the price (black) and trailing stop (red). You can clearly see that the change in the trailing stop value is higher than the change in the price. Thus the trailing stop is not on a pip to pip change like I originally thought it was.
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Also check out The Mathematics of Money Management. In fact if you google search it then you will find a mediafire link for download.
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Hi Goomboo, thanks so much for posting this epic thread. I am relatively new to all this, so please excuse my ignorance if my questions are a bit basic. I would really like to ask them though, as I am determined to never use a method which I do not fully understand.
Firstly, the exponential moving averages; the values are 10 and 25. But 10 and 25 what? Is it, as I suspect, 'ticks' which to my understanding is the time period which you select - in this case hours?
Secondly, you mentioned in your original post about checking for liquidity. I understand that this means that you want to make sure there is enough capability of movement in the market such that you don't end up posting a buy or sell order which takes a large amount of time to be accepted, exposing you to the risk of market movement against you in the meantime. Could you please explain how you read the charts related to the website that you linked to in order to determine if there is sufficient liquidity to cover your moves?
I am in BTC more for the fun aspect and because I believe in the technology than to necessarily make a large profit; I have only invested a small amount which I can afford to lose. But I sincerely hope I can make a nice profit so I can give you a generous tip not only for your great advice, but also for your general ethos; one thing I have noted about this site is that people are almost jumping of the roof of the exchange / cracking champagne bottles just about every few minutes depending on the market. It's really refreshing to hear from someone with a level head and real world experience.
Cheers.
It is a zero-sum game out there, which means if you lose your money someone is taking it. Go read this whole thing before starting. Also. Did the EMA10/21 crossover fail to catch the move up to $5? |
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Bitcoinica's * overbought indicator is gone but now we have the interest given to the sell side when it is overbought.
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If I want to learn russian or chinese it might not be worth my time to pay for classes, let alone a private tutor in the real world. Yet there's probably someone on the internet willing to teach for an hour for a tiny amount, below minimum wage. And perhaps there are some well-off families in Asia wanting to pay a native english person for tuition. So in my idea I upload bitcoins to a website on which I could find various people willing to teach different things, at different times, at different prices, to suit me. I could also teach someone else and either withdraw the bitcoins or use them purchase lectures in new subjects. There would be a feedback/review system, so someone who wants to start can do so by simply teaching for free, then slowing increasing his/her price through fractions of a dollar, until whatever the market standard is. People particular good at teaching or who have very specialist knowledge could charge a premium. The teaching would be done via voice communication and a Khanacademy style flash interface (graphics tablet recommended). Every session will be recorded. This could be used for security reasons (from speaking to strangers on the internet) and as a way to build a reputation by releasing past sessions. Unlike a traditional website which does this (if they exist), you wouldn't have to hire tutors and pay in advance, or pay them minimum wage, or background checks. The peoples teaching would be people you've never heard of. All you do is create a website and take a percentage of transfers. People on the site would not need to donate large amounts of money or give their personal details in order to start, they could try it out by depositing just a few cents anonymously. They do not need to give away their identity beyond a username and a microphone output. The site would be very simple and entirely driven (wages, content, prices, reputation) by the users. You mean like italki.com? When are you going to make this website? |
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Obviously if you could enter and exit earlier you would capture a lot more of the move, the danger lies in reintroducing guesswork and emotion to the decision making process.
Speaking of which, did someone automate this process? Doesn't look very hard to do. I run sierra charts witch sends me an email when there is a crossover. Got an app on my phone witch detects the email form sierra charts and sounds an alarm. Full automation is always risky because it can't detect false crossovers. How do you detect false crossovers? If you can do it then a bot can as well. |
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I tried to ask on the Bitcoinica help the equation or determining the Trailing Stop but I just got a vague answer.
I am running a script right now to pull the ask and the price status of my trailing stop every minute. I will update if I find anything unordinary.
Here is the data for anyone interested. I will analyze it and post the results. I set a trailing stop sell at a price of $2.00 and every 5 seconds using the API I retrieved the status of the trailing stop and the current BTC/USD bid price. With this data one can calculate the lag of updating the trailing stop. I was only able to get between 500 and 600 raw data points. trailing stop CSV |
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The Bond Market... how Wars are funded...  I made a 30% yearly return off of US Savings bonds when investors drove up the price back in 2009 and then drove down the price. |
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Your point kind sir ?
I also think along with a point, people that post this kind of stuff should disclose their position. The real manipulators are the ones that post trying to get others to pump or dump. |
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What's funny about walls is that while most people assume buy-walls are "fake", on the other hand, whenever an ask-wall appears they run for the hills.
This is due to the ingrained "need" for fiat. They would rather be stuck with over priced fiat rather than over priced BTC.  Loss aversion ( see Kahneman and Tversky, 2000. Choices, values and frames ) |
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tl;dr version: I hoarded toilet paper in college. Long story: In college one Sunday morning (while living in the dorms), I had to go to the bathroom. So of course I go to the closest bathroom, but it's out of toilet paper. Fine, just go down the hall... no toilet paper. Ugh. Go down a floor (I lived on top floor (3 stories)), check bathrooms. No toilet paper, you've got to be shitting me! (pun intended) I finally found some in the lobby bathroom (of all places), but the lobby is usually disgusting. This was no exception that day. So I swiped out the remaining toilet paper roll (I left the one on the hook, but just took the spare) and took it upstairs to "my" bathroom. Was happy. But later that day I got thinking, so next day (Monday) when they cleaned the bathrooms and left new spare rolls of toilet paper, I swiped a spare to keep in my room. But then that got me really thinking. Everyday, except the weekends, the bathrooms are always replenished. So about twice a week I'd grab a new spare roll, and keep it in the closet. My roommate thought I was a little nuts... that is, you see, until one weekend he went to use the bathroom and discovered no toilet paper.  He then asked if he could have one of my spares (I had about 20 by this point), then he no longer gave me any shit (again, pun intended). By the semester's end, I had about 50 spare rolls. There was probably no toilet paper because someone else thought of this before you and stole the toilet paper. Across the hall the guy might have had 100 rolls. This is why there is no toilet paper provide in some countries. Restrooms in private and public places do not provide toilet paper. This is because people will steal all of it from the restroom. A person has to carry paper everywhere they go. |
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Can someone tell me how it would be possible to queue a limit order AFTER a stop for my open position?
Open Position ------ Long @ 5.00
Order Queue ------- 1) STOP-sell @ 4.90 ( liquidate long position )
Order Queue ------- 2) Limit-sell @ 4.89 ( go short after liquidating long position)
The above in reality just executes the limit-sell order immediately and liquidates my position leaving the STOP-sell order still queued. So you can't queue a limit order at a price lower than the market price if you have an open position? Does that mean I would need to queue a second STOP-sell order at 4.89 to create a new short position after the first stop liquidates my original long position?
What does it do if you place both the stop and limit order after you have an open position? |
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I tried to ask on the Bitcoinica help the equation or determining the Trailing Stop but I just got a vague answer.
I am running a script right now to pull the ask and the price status of my trailing stop every minute. I will update if I find anything unordinary.
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My trailing-stop-sell has gone up in target price by $0.1385 since yesterday. The trailing stop has gone up 6.925% since yesterday. Based on the entry price of $4.33712/$4.40606, for that increase to be correct, we would have had to have hit a price point of $4.63747/4.71118 at some point in the past day. We have never come anywhere near $4.60 during this time frame, and in fact we've pretty much been down from the starting point since I entered the trailing stop. Thus, I have to conclude that as I noted earlier, trailing stops are not working properly and should be avoided until Zhoutong fixes the problem.
Your calculation is different than Bitcoinica's because it seems Bitcoinica does on a pip per pip change and you are calculating by the percentage pip change. Since you were doing a Trailing Stop sell yours calculation was: 4.33712 * .006925 = 0.3003456 0.3003456 + 4.33712 = 4.637466 But on Bitcoinica it would really be based only on the pip movement of the Sell side. For example, I followed the 4 changes in my Trailing stop (on the sell side). Over the course of ~10 minutes it changed, 4.2439 to 4.2496 to 4.2498 to 4.2499 The sell bid changed: 4.33257 to 4.33825 to 4.33829 to 4.33854 If we take the difference between the bid price and the trailing stop orders we get: 0.08867, 0.08865, 0.08849, 0.08864, |
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Yes, swiping a card then walking out the door with your items is so primitive.
I rather pay $49.99 for Bitpay's digital wallet with a 5 hour battery life, go through various menus, wait several seconds for the QR code to scan and finalize the transaction.
Oh wait, my battery died. I guess I won't be buying anything today.
Is there a gas leak in here? I swear, you guys are thinking like a failing toy company.
That’s the dumbest thing I have ever heard anyone say in my life. You do realize that all mainstream financial institutions are already heading this direction, don’t you genius? Have you ever considered shitting out of the other side of your body like the rest of the world! I see nobody paying with their phone. Zero. Whatever the banks are doing is worth nothing. You people are stuck in a nerdy scifi dream world. In many other places in the world, this is how they transect purchases. I was in Congo a few months back and saw all these people go to a store and play with their phone at the cash register. I didn't know what they were doing and the sales person showed me how they can send money to each via SMS. I thought, why don't we do this in America? I guess it doesn't matter anyway. "Boss" is on my ignore list. |
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In summary, follow these two steps and Bitcoin will be the currency of the future.
You're welcome.
Wow so cool. When are you going to implement this and open up your company? |
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