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13281  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will there be a massive BTC dump? on: December 17, 2020, 08:49:49 PM
Many people forget to check relative numbers. Now a $ 1,000 move is just a 5% fluctuation - common and one might say insignificant for such a high-volatility asset as bitcoin. But people still remember the times when bitcoin could be bought for $ 1000, so for them such movements are still significant.

because the expensive Bitcoin price makes the increase and decrease of $ 1000 only have small fluctuations,
of course this makes people think that the volatility in bitcoin is very high, even though 5% is still reasonable,
and it happened because of a correction a few days ago.

There is another point that should be taken into account - this is the media. In fact, they don't give a damn about the essence of the news, they are only interested in giving out hot news. Therefore, instead of the usual message "today bitcoin rose/fell by 3 percent" they write "sensation! A sharp increase/decrease in the price of bitcoin by $ 1000!"
13282  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will there be a massive BTC dump? on: December 14, 2020, 02:23:47 PM
People are really mistaking "massive" and "correction" and that is really funny to me.
You are correct but that how people think here, at least some of them.

The thing is, they try to exaggerate everything, when the price rise, they hype it, and when they price fall they try to stir panic to people that's why our market is very volatile, and that is cause by investors coming in with lack of knowledge and experience on how crypto market moves.

Many people forget to check relative numbers. Now a $ 1,000 move is just a 5% fluctuation - common and one might say insignificant for such a high-volatility asset as bitcoin. But people still remember the times when bitcoin could be bought for $ 1000, so for them such movements are still significant.
13283  Economy / Speculation / Re: When moon? ($500k / $1 million / $2 million) on: December 14, 2020, 02:13:57 PM
~
I think we will see $500k hit for the first time in the second half of this decade.
$1 million will first be hit in the early 2030's.
$2 million will first be hit before 2040.
~

I do not mind discussing any forecast, but what is the point of discussing what we will be in 2040? Technologies are developing at such a speed that we cannot even be sure that the appearance of a person of the future will be similar to the appearance of a modern person. It is all the more difficult and pointless to discuss the price of bitcoin at such a time.
13284  Economy / Speculation / Re: 3rd times the charm 20K on: December 14, 2020, 02:11:28 PM
Fourth time the charm? Cheesy. I mean we are above $19k again, and again we are trying to go above $20k as well, and I do not know what we are going to do now. I mean it is possible that we will be trying this for the last time and break over $20k and reach to a very higher level and not go under ever again, or maybe this is the last time we are trying for the last time for a while and going down and not going to go over $19k for a long time again?

I do not know what we are going to do, I think we are going to eventually do something major but I am not sure what. We have gone over $19k 4 times now and gone under $18k three times now, that is a lot of tries honestly, I can't say what is going to happen but I know that last time we were over $19k we didn't try to stay up this long.

What is the point of paying attention to such small fluctuations? Btcoin has always had high volatility and at a price of about 20k, fluctuations of 5% give us + - 1000 dollars. We must accept the fact that the fluctuation in the price of $ 1000 is insignificant now. In the future (if the price of bitcoin rises significantly), the fluctuation of 5 thousand dollars will be insignificant.
13285  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Discussion (Altcoins) / Re: Gamblers! What is your excuse to avoid a game with 0% House Edge? on: December 14, 2020, 01:11:18 PM
Any player understands how the casino functions and knows why the casino should take its commission. Paradoxical as it may seem, favorable conditions are often frightening because the players do not understand how such conditions can be offered. I think that any such advantageous offer should be accompanied by a detailed explanation of why and how such an offer became possible.

Do we really believe into this kind of line?

 Grin I understand that there are many fools in gambling (as in any other activity), but usually fools run out of money very quickly, so I still consider this business from the point of view of deals with smart people. We must focus on smart people. And from the point of view of smart people, such proposals seem suspicious.
13286  Economy / Speculation / Re: New ATH then correction of 35%+ on: December 14, 2020, 12:50:58 PM
Okay, I understand you and agree with you. After all, privacy is one of the fundamental stones of the cryptocurrency. As for me, I take this more easily, since the thousand or two or three dollars that I dispose of are hardly interesting to anyone  Grin
Maybe that's why I am skeptical about trading - an increase in interest on a small capital gives practically nothing.

Yeah, that's sort of why I'm a bit less careful than I should be as well with my Bitcoin history. I suppose it'd make a lot more sense if I were actually accumulating something more significant, so maybe if I talk less and less about my past and BTC, it means I've somehow found a way to make mo sats;)

Trading's all right. But yeah, I have a full time job and full time life. Not the kind of situation that's good for trading!

Same. It's funny that this state of affairs leaves all the best opportunities for those who have an excess of free time and who, in a sense, can be called idlers  Grin However, I think that trading becomes good starting from the middle distance, everything else is casino/luck.
13287  Other / Off-topic / Re: Fury vs Joshua --- who will win? on: December 14, 2020, 12:47:36 PM
Hard choice. Before doing it, I would wait until the fight is very close and look at the opinion of the bookmakers. I think the odds are roughly equal, but Fury will be considered the favorite, so bets on him will be undervalued. Therefore, if I was betting on this fight, I would choose Joshua.

Easy choice. Despite the size, Fury is quick as hell. The fight against Wilder showed that Fury could hold heavy punches and stand up.
Joshua will be "just another pumped Wilder to fight against".

In took Joshua 9 rounds to beat relatively old Pulev, who is on top13 right now. While he should have cracked Pulev like a nut in 4-5 rounds.

This is a deceiving "easy choice". However, if you are so sure of the result, what is the minimum odds from the bookmaker that you will accept to bet on win Fury? I don't know if you are betting or not, but this fight is just an opportunity for me to reflect on the mathematics of betting, nothing more - I'm not a fan of these boxers.
13288  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do you want to be a technical analyst yourself? on: December 13, 2020, 11:25:35 PM
Wouldn't a neural network be better suited to be a technical analyst than any human? Technical analysis tells us that the market is full of patterns and it's only a matter of recognizing them, and neural networks are exceptionally good at recognizing patterns if you just feed them the data. How well do the trading bots actually perform compared to humans? Is it worth trying to train a bot yourself, or is it too complicated for someone without a strong background in neural networks?

Of course, neural networks would be the best analysts compared to the coolest professionals among humans. The problem is that the original problem has no solution - you cannot "find a pattern and know the future." Therefore, neural networks will not help here like any other tool.
13289  Other / Off-topic / Re: Fury vs Joshua --- who will win? on: December 13, 2020, 11:14:08 PM
Hard choice. Before doing it, I would wait until the fight is very close and look at the opinion of the bookmakers. I think the odds are roughly equal, but Fury will be considered the favorite, so bets on him will be undervalued. Therefore, if I was betting on this fight, I would choose Joshua.
13290  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will increase 20X in the next 5 years on: December 13, 2020, 10:59:09 PM
Bitcoin has risen more than 100x since the price of Bitcoin is still a few dollars,
and now many people want Bitcoin to be able to go up by 20x at the current price?
Of course this makes Bitcoin can have difficulties,
my advice is not to target investment for the next 5 years, 1 year already very nice.

Why do you prefer a short term over a longer one? After all, bitcoin is usually as good as possible in the long term. As far as I know, nothing special is expected in the next year, and if we take a period of 5 years, then we will go through another halving. And I think that the subsequent halving will have time to affect the price of bitcoin for the specified period.
13291  Economy / Speculation / Re: New ATH then correction of 35%+ on: December 13, 2020, 10:32:24 PM
What was your entry point if it's not a secret? And at what point are you planning to exit? I think it is dangerous to exit at the first serious breakout of ATH - no one knows how high the price will rise, perhaps you will not be able to buy back at a good price. I think that leaving from the asset completely is unjustified (by the way, I made this mistake  Cheesy ).

Think someone told ME a couple of days ago not to divulge entry points -- looking back I think I'd agree with this advice. Best not make yourself a target.

I didn't reveal too much at all, other than my dream fantasy target which never happened and likely never will. My account details already give away when I started on this forum but yeah, I'd say to exercise caution with what you tell people you trade at. No point painting a target on yourself.

Okay, I understand you and agree with you. After all, privacy is one of the fundamental stones of the cryptocurrency. As for me, I take this more easily, since the thousand or two or three dollars that I dispose of are hardly interesting to anyone  Grin
Maybe that's why I am skeptical about trading - an increase in interest on a small capital gives practically nothing.
13292  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Discussion (Altcoins) / Re: Gamblers! What is your excuse to avoid a game with 0% House Edge? on: December 13, 2020, 10:21:53 PM
They had mentioned that they had set out 0% house edge to give back something to the community which is really hard to believe considering that
gambling site is a business which means you would need to make up some revenue to be sustainable in long term.

Hence, this one been offering zero house edge which is impossible for it to sustain for longer runs but somehow when I do check out
on what type of game this is then I can say that it isn't surprising that majority wont really be interested to it.

I don't see blockchain games to be that attractive.

Any player understands how the casino functions and knows why the casino should take its commission. Paradoxical as it may seem, favorable conditions are often frightening because the players do not understand how such conditions can be offered. I think that any such advantageous offer should be accompanied by a detailed explanation of why and how such an offer became possible.
13293  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What sites offer FREE Plays, FREE Spins, Free Bets - Lets make a list on: December 12, 2020, 02:49:53 PM
It's going to take a lot of time. If you do make a list, I think it is also useful if you include the requirements.
A site can offer a bonus of, for example, 100% up to a maximum of 1 BTC, but what good is that if your requirements are too high?

In addition to the fact that such a project is difficult to conduct, you need to think about what its real benefits are? If I see a great bonus on a new site or on a site with a lack of reputation, then I still won't go there. In any case, I will choose the TOP casinos with the maximum reputation, their number is small and the choice is small. Maybe the author of the topic should make such a list only for top projects?
13294  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Discussion (Altcoins) / Re: Gamblers! What is your excuse to avoid a game with 0% House Edge? on: December 12, 2020, 02:42:26 PM
Hmm ... I wonder how a casino can exist with zero fees? Any project requires spending on infrastructure and it costs a certain amount of money. Perhaps your project receives payments from the players in some other way? Or am I misunderstanding something.
13295  Economy / Gambling / Re: Casinos Withdrawal Fees Rise (!?)|| November 2020 on: December 12, 2020, 02:36:40 PM
As soon as the Bitcoin goes and the fees remain the same, automatically you will pay extra $ in order to withdraw from the websites but this is only on certain sites. I would advice to switch to another currency because the fees depends from a cryptocurrency to another so find one who accepts TRON or DOGE.

Imagine the fees when Bitcoin will touch 100k$ because in that moment, only rich people will gamble with Bitcoin and it no longer be played by casual players like me or you.

I have several gamblers I know and I often read gambling discussions, so I am surprised by your assumptions. I thought that most of the gamblers have been operating according to this scheme for a long time: input/output in currencies like ETH, EOS, etc. and the game is in bitcoin.
13296  Economy / Speculation / Re: New ATH then correction of 35%+ on: December 12, 2020, 02:31:19 PM
I will wait for that new ATH because I am waiting for a long time, and I am sure that people will do the same. We miss the new ATH after waiting, and if that can comes at the end of this year or next year, we will not have a problem waiting for more. We believe that the new ATH will come soon, and that makes people still buying bitcoin now.

But if the new ATH makes the price to have a correction for 35%, I will not have a problem, and I will make sure to buy back bitcoin again at a low price. That will be the best time to buy back bitcoin after we sell at the new ATH, and I think that can give more bitcoin to people who buy it later.

What was your entry point if it's not a secret? And at what point are you planning to exit? I think it is dangerous to exit at the first serious breakout of ATH - no one knows how high the price will rise, perhaps you will not be able to buy back at a good price. I think that leaving from the asset completely is unjustified (by the way, I made this mistake  Cheesy ).
13297  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting small amounts on a lot of matches or big amount on couple of matches? on: December 12, 2020, 02:25:08 PM
I agree with you that if you place a bet on one match, then there is an opportunity to get the maximum adrenaline while watching it go.
While doing multi-bets, there is usually no way to watch all the events. In addition to these obvious things, there is also a profit consideration: the bookmaker's advantage is minimal on one bet, while on multi-bets it grows depending on the number of bets.

I'm not talking about bookies advantage because they just make money from the commission of the winning bets, they aren't really the house that accepts bets against their bankroll, they are just operating to facilitate the betting on both sides, and that's all I know.

Technically, yes, but if we consider such a situation when all players place bets on the same outcome, the bookmaker will still be in profit at the distance. Therefore, we can say that the bookmaker to some extent plays against the player and has an advantage.
13298  Economy / Speculation / Re: New ATH then correction of 35%+ on: December 11, 2020, 11:51:40 PM
Well still waiting for that 35%  Grin while also waiting for ATH  Cool

Not exactly. We saw a new ATH on November 30th. Not just on one exchange either......Bitstamp, Coinbase, Bitfinex, all surpassed the 2017 ATH. There was just absolutely no follow through and price immediately dipped back below.

If the 35%+ correction happens from here, the situation would parallel January 2017, when BTC tagged the 2013 ATH (just barely) and then crashed back down to $800.

Technically, a new ATH was installed, but I think very few people perceive it as a new ATH. Everyone expects a serious increase of 50 or one hundred percent from the previous one. In addition, if we take inflation into account, it turns out that the old ATH is still unmatched.
13299  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting small amounts on a lot of matches or big amount on couple of matches? on: December 11, 2020, 10:58:46 PM
I have seen many gamblers who place bets on low odds but in multiple formats to make a big win, but at the end even with low odds, with just one loss, they lose it all. I hence now think it's best to just place in one or two matches instead of going all in with multiple bet slips! The excitement is also much in placing a single bet than placing many bets of whose games we can't really watch either due to same timing or due to other life stuffs. Focus on one game is nicer.

I agree with you that if you place a bet on one match, then there is an opportunity to get the maximum adrenaline while watching it go.
While doing multi-bets, there is usually no way to watch all the events. In addition to these obvious things, there is also a profit consideration: the bookmaker's advantage is minimal on one bet, while on multi-bets it grows depending on the number of bets.
13300  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Poker Worthwhile freerolls and low stakes high prize and fun games on: December 11, 2020, 10:29:19 PM
I have not read this thread for a long time, I would like to know - is there somewhere a general balance during which this thread is being conducted? I would be interested to know if the author of the thread is in profit and if so, what is its size. This issue has already been discussed in the thread, but I don't see any summary data.
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