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13341  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: August 27, 2012, 05:03:01 AM
Bears asleep?  Huh


all shaken out.  except for my subs that is. Cheesy
13342  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 27, 2012, 04:56:54 AM
13343  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 27, 2012, 04:32:24 AM
looks to me like just about everyone around here has been shaken out...

Do shakers count?

hey, your velociraptors haven't caught me yet!  Cheesy
13344  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 27, 2012, 04:28:58 AM
looks to me like just about everyone around here has been shaken out...
13345  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: August 27, 2012, 03:32:10 AM
Wall asymmetry has returned! Cool
13346  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica.....market manipulators miss your service and retarded clients on: August 27, 2012, 03:11:14 AM
yes, you did get it wrong; it's "Zhoutonged"! Wink
13347  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 27, 2012, 03:08:48 AM
13348  Economy / Speculation / Re: Financial Risk Analytics-Subscription Service on: August 27, 2012, 01:41:25 AM
Update:

Review
13349  Economy / Economics / Re: Does much of gold's market cap eventually go to Bitcoin? on: August 26, 2012, 11:00:33 PM
a couple of personal experiences.

i just found out Friday that not only am i being charged 2-3% of gross revenues on average by my processor for CC tx's but also that they have been charging me $30/mo for not having answered a PCI Compliance Questionnaire each year.  this has been going on for years w/o my knowledge.  they claim they notified me about this requirement in the fine print of my monthly statement once a year.  i've also caught them gradually increasing the % fees from time to time and slipping in all sorts of other fees.  it's an ongoing battle.  the costs of actually implementing the PCI Compliance is expensive and burdensome as well.

i have found that in the 4 short months since i've started my subscription service that dealing with Bitcoin has been a much more efficient and cost effective method of payment for services.  granted, i'm exchanging an information based service for Bitcoin as opposed to durable goods but still the point holds.  i can easily see how a wallet like Armory could be adapted to a Walmart or Costco model.
13350  Economy / Economics / Re: Does much of gold's market cap eventually go to Bitcoin? on: August 26, 2012, 09:00:39 PM
Next question then is: How much privately held gold is there? Well, I believe it's estimated that about 150,000 tons have been mined to date, and it looks like governments directly control about 30,000 tons (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve). So, 120,000 tons in private hands. Interestingly, according to that wikipedia page, about 50% of the world's gold exists as jewelry. This is a need bitcoin cannot fill that I hadn't considered.

Remember, some portion of that has been consumed.

To answer the question, though, I think 10% of private gold is a reasonable maximum.

the key thing is that we have to estimate how much gold there is b/c it keeps changing.  miners continue to dig it up, much is hoarded away uncounted, and its possible that we'll be able to manufacture it in the near future.  and then there's the whole deep sea and asteroid argument which i don't put much stock in. 

i'd much rather deal with the certainty of a mathematical algorithm.  the fixed supply is not going to change as Bitcoin has already successfully dealt with inflatable alt chains.

most fiat currency today is digital.  i think that's really what Bitcoin is competing with.
13351  Economy / Economics / Re: Does much of gold's market cap eventually go to Bitcoin? on: August 26, 2012, 08:45:38 PM
not only does Bitcoin accomplish the store of wealth function, it is also currently serving as an efficient medium of exchange.

gold isn't doing anywhere near as well at the latter. 
13352  Economy / Economics / Re: Does much of gold's market cap eventually go to Bitcoin? on: August 26, 2012, 08:18:09 PM
That's not what counterparty risk is.  Counterparty risk is when someone owes you.  What you are saying is merely being part of a modern society.

I think there is a conflation of four different types of risk.

With gold or bitcoins you can hold it yourself or have a third party hold it. With FRN$ you can hold it yourself or lend it to a financial institution. Usually a financial institution needs to be involved to transfer value over distance. Thus, FRN$ are the blood while banks, Paypal, credit cards, etc. are the veins.

Gold or bitcoins you hold yourself are subject only to exchange rate risk.

Gold or bitcoins you have a third party hold are subject to exchange rate risk and performance risk. Performance risk is the risk that a party will perform their contract.

FRN$ you hold yourself are subject to exchange rate risk and currency risk; they can become absolutely worthless.

FRN$ you lend to a financial institution, like with fractional reserve banking, money markets, etc. are subject to these four types of risk: exchange rate risk, currency risk, performance risk and counter-party risk which is the financial ability of the counter-party to perform the contract.

This is where Bitcoin becomes extremely powerful because it is both the blood and the veins. In performing that service when you use it yourself it eliminates performance risk and counter-party risk.

as the only one around here who seems to have traded the majority of his gold/silver in exchange for Bitcoin, I will add one more form of risk; that of security.

i used to have 2 safes full of pm's.  when i was not home or travelling, i used to worry about someone breaking into the safes as my one and only level of security.

now, with Bitcoin and w/o getting too specific, i think in terms of having five levels of security built in revolving around the safe door, multiple distributed copies, passworded usb keys, self destruct capabilities, encrypted wallets.
13353  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Japanese getting into Bitcoin? on: August 26, 2012, 05:58:35 PM

I'm careful to explain that in several years, one bitcoin will likely be worth a lot of money or nothing at all,  and almost certainly not what they are worth today.

the next time you let your conscience get to you, think about what your competition is doing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGEppgLna8U&feature=youtu.be
13354  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Japanese getting into Bitcoin? on: August 26, 2012, 05:54:39 PM
Roger, talk to us about how you advertised the meetings and how you attracted so many interested investors.

I'm not the organizer,  and I don't know the details of how the meetings are advertised.

There are several Japanese guys that organize investment/business clubs or organizations of some sort.
They are organizing everything and just have me helping explain Bitcoin.
I think their primary interest is making money through investing,  and after hearing about Bitcoin,  they see the potential.
I'm careful to explain that in several years, one bitcoin will likely be worth a lot of money or nothing at all,  and almost certainly not what they are worth today.
I think we may see some Japanese businesses starting to use Bitcoin by 2013.



you really should find out how they're advertising it.  the middle agers, investors, and the Ms. Watanabe types are really who need to keep attending these things as they tend to be the one's with the money.  getting large turnouts like you are is key and duplicating this model in other countries will help spread the word.  good work.
13355  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Japanese getting into Bitcoin? on: August 26, 2012, 03:42:14 PM
Roger, talk to us about how you advertised the meetings and how you attracted so many interested investors.
13356  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Japanese getting into Bitcoin? on: August 26, 2012, 03:33:13 PM
Thanks for your efforts Roger  Smiley
13357  Other / Off-topic / Re: PCI Compliance-SAQ on: August 26, 2012, 05:25:45 AM
Yeap PCI compliance is a HUGE annoyance. I was in charge of implementing PCI compliance with the company I work for. But honestly in the end it is worth it. I know my company spent atleast 200K not including what they are paying me. And it is not like when you are compliant you are complaint. It is always an ongoing effort. Some money saving tips: never store the PAN on your database. If you do it will require dual knowledge authentication. Meaning to reconstruct the key one person knows part of a the key another person knows the other part of the key etc. Granted we had to do PCI SAQ D because we are technically a service provider.
The language in the PCI-DSS is very vague and is ambiguous in some parts. If you have any questions with PCI I may be able to help.

thanks for the offer.  i will keep this in mind.
13358  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: August 26, 2012, 01:26:52 AM
Adam, hit the buy button!  shhhhhhh...... Wink

quiet you!

(sorry, couldn't resist. Cheesy)
lol

i need more coins!

well then, BUY THEM!  Cheesy

should i go all in?

i would.  we're going up.
13359  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is NOW at the PAUL Festival in Tampa on: August 26, 2012, 01:18:38 AM
I'm just thinking it's hard to know we have actual Bitcoin reps there standing by  Grin

Don't worry, we've got 3 of the bitcoin polo shirts from CryptoAnarchy.us that we will be wearing tomorrow and Sunday. We've also got Alison's sister in the booth.  There won't be any doubt that bitcoin is here.

wait a minute!  hold on right there!  Alison has a sister?  OMG  Cheesy
13360  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 25, 2012, 11:19:46 PM
aw, you had to go and ruin it!  Wink
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