No problem with that, but then you are misleading people, when you are saying to have been very successful lately. Or you just did some paper bets.


One win proves nothing But since OP doesn't charge any money upfront, we can monitor things and nobody will lose money (apart from losing bets maybe). I have the feeling this might be a short-lived adventure/thread though.

Could you then give screenshots from "these days" instead of posting screenshots from 2019, where you had some wins over spans of months ? And don't put status on "win", but on "all" please


This is already a huge red flag

Well, my fear came true. I didn't place a bet since March 11th and this is probably the longest break in the last 15 years. I am not necessarily missing the betting part, but boy, do I miss watching some sports. Going from watching sport every day for multiple hours to zero, nada, niente is really kind of weird. What would I give now to watch some Bundesliga match even without spectators Expecting sports/league to resume in May again, so this will be a loooong April.

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Some years ago, I stumbled across every punters wet dream. I found some more or less huge imperfection in some markets. Good thing was, there was no research to be done, no knowledge needed, the market did the work for me and I just had to place the bets filtering some odds and collecting my winnings afterwards. The icing on the cake was multiple of these bets being available every day for 10 months of the year.

I followed WTA tennis very closely at that time, since these were the markets where I wanted to learn inplay trading at Betfair. So I spent my days watching the ladies play and trying my luck in making some bucks by taking advantage of odds movement while the matches unfolded. Very soon I learned, that this is easier said than done. WTA tennis is said to be a nightmare to bet on, but a dream to trade. What I noticed - being someone who likes to play bigger odds - is, that a lot of these games were very one-sided; the odds favourite just won with no fuzz. That made me thinking. If the majority of the favourites wins rather easily, there must be some way to make money with it. I had a look at set betting.

Checking all results every day, there were rather few three-setters (in contrast to what one would expect in womens tennis) and most of the matches ended 2-0 with the favourite winning. Now this tells nothing, if you don't have any odds available. So I bought a lifetime license for some tennis database and started calculating and analysing what happened in the past (5 seasons). That database also included pre-match odds for all matches, but not the set betting odds. The way bookmakers compile their set betting odds is fixed, i.e. they don't really compile them. They do compile the ML odds and just extrapolate the set betting odds from that. And that formula was wrong.

It was rather easy to grasp what their formula was and so I soon had a list what were the corresponding 2-0 odds for given ML odds. So I could calculate, what 2-0 bets on WTA favourites would have yielded for past season - and the results were amazing.

But what is a favourite ? A 1.20 is a huge favourite, a 1.50 is a solid favourite, a 1.80 is still a little bit of a favourite, but there was some threshold which I had to define, where there was no value to blindly play a favourite for 2-0 win. That threshold was at (average market) odds of 1.64 according to my calculations.

So after some days of theoretical work, I finally started my test. I would now play every WTA favourite =<1,64 to win their match 2-0. I started with smallish stakes, but relatively quickly upped them, because the results were very good and I was sure, they were no fluke. Already after like 3 weeks, I was staking the max amount at most bookmakers. It has to be noted though, that the max stakes for set betting at most bookmakers are not that high and I always played early odds, where the limits are reduced anyway. I always shopped for the best odds, since there were quite some differences in the bookies. One bookmaker had a 1.80 for my bet, the other a 2.05. Huge difference and I wanted to max out my profits. I needed lots of money in all my bookmaker accounts to act quickly and get the best odds available.

As the months passed by, I was always fine-tuning the system. Some players weren't reliable favourites and more often than not going for mental walkabouts during their matches, resuliting in three-setters (but still winning in the end). Pavlyuchenkova was one of those. So I filtered out some players, that weren't profitable for this system. I also noticed the system doing rather poor-ish with grass tournaments, hardcourts were better than clay and all those things. I kept track of every single player, every single tournament, every surface and checked the results. I was able to create huge turnover and was operating with a 10% yield.

This goldmine lasted for around two years, until a) the market adapted and b) I was running out of betting accounts. The bookmakers changed their formula to compile set betting odds and thus they were way lower from that on. I re-calculated everything and came to the conclusion, that it was still profitable, albeit with a lower expected yield. But I was limited so heavily in nearly all bookmakers and wasn't able to place my desired stakes anymore and shopping for the best odds was very hard with only few bookmaker accounts at hand. Betfair was no option, since the set betting markets there have low volume (especially for early odds).

After the bookmakers changed their formula again, I realized that with all these circumstances the goldmine was depleted. I tried to work out some similar inplay set betting system, but failed. So after around 2.5 wild years with 2-0 set betting WTA favourites, I finally stopped.

I had a look, if that system could be applied to ATP, but no, you would just break even, so not worth the time. I did add WTA qualifying matches though, because my data showed them to be profitable as well and I often had some lack of matches in the weekends, since only SF and F were played then. With also betting the qualifying matches for the tournaments starting the week after, I had a full schedule every day of the week.

Kahn has won every title there is, and deservedly so - it's just missing the World Cup. He had the chance in 2002, but it was him, who kind of messed up for Germany, after having played a monster tournament before. I think this mistake is still haunting him up until today.

He has been a highly divisive personality troughout his whole career, Bayern fans loved him, the rest hated him. But everyone always acknowlegded his performance and achievements being one of the best goalkeepers ever to step on a football field. He won me over also as a human being, when he showed so much class during the World Cup 2006. Klinsmann/Löw picked Lehmann to be the starting goalkeeper for the home World Cup and I would have expected Kahn to immediately resign form german NT, but no, he accepted his role as second goalkeeper and gave good support to Lehmann. Great teamplayer.

Same here. I have no idea about esports and just clicked some favourites and mixed some dogs in, whose names I liked The Leaderboard not updating correctly is annoying though, takes a lot of fun away. It was the same for the football Multi Masters. You never know, where you really stand and which games are already included - can't be that hard to always keep it up to date.

Some I-am-so-bored-stats for home wins in 2019/2020 season, which shows the good work the bookmakers (or their computers) are doing and why it is so hard to make money pre-match in big leagues like Bundesliga:

• 224 matches were played in Bundesliga so far.
• We saw 97 (43.30%) home wins and 127 times (56.70%) the home team failed to win.
• Converting the percentages into odds, this would give us 2.30 for home win and 1.76 for X2, if there was no juice.

Now checking the odds at Oddsportal, the average winning odds for the home teams were 2.20. Just betting blindly on home win for every match with your favourite bookmaker, will result in a loss - vice versa for blindly betting on X2; you have to reduce the juice. By shopping for odds, you can nearly bet without juice and more or less easily get the 2.30/1.76 on average to break even. Well, then you broke even, which is quite an accomplishment in itself already, but of course we want to make money and not just exchange it back and forth with various bookmakers.

Forget about diving deep into major stats, H2H, injuries, suspensions etc., these things are all already priced in and you won't beat the market like that. You need to go the extra mile. More sophisticated computer-based statistical analyses combined with inside information. Now this is pretty hard to achieve for average Joe's (like me), so no option for 99,99% of punters.

The only way to do more than break-even is to study the game and the teams and bet inplay. Live markets, even in the biggest leagues, are still very imperfect imo. There is so many variables and dynamics, which on top change all the time during the 90 minutes, that no bookmaker with their computer or even the most well-equipped shark can be that good with compiling their odds like they are able to do pre-match, where all factors are more or less fixed.

Thoughts ?

Die Rewards bei Bitvest und 777Coin sind schon sehr grenzwertig. Die Leute sagen ja immer, wenn man eh schon postet, dann kann man auch eine Signatur tragen und sich was dazu verdienen. Stimme zu, trotzdem ist es so, dass die meisten User mehr posten, wenn sie eine Signatur tragen - was man dann sieht, wenn sie eben keine Signatur tragen. Ist ja auch ganz normal und nicht verwerflich; win-win für die Firma und den User.

Die Teilnehmer von Bitvest und 777Coin fallen mir in Gambling jedoch extrem negativ auf, weil die dort wirklich extrem viel spammen. Ausnahmen bestätigen die Regel, aber die besseren Poster verlassen diese Kampagnen dann auch recht schnell, wenn sich was Besseres ergibt (und das ist nahezu jede Kampagne). Lustigerweise wissen die Spammer genau was sie machen. Ich habe einige self-moderated threads in Gambling und diese Leute posten eigentlich nie in diesen Threads. Die wissen ganz genau, dass ihre Posts dort (und in anderen self-moderated Threads) gelöscht werden und daher posten sie in den Spam-Megathreads, wo jeder einfach ungelesen seinen Sondermüll abladen kann - was eh leichter ist, wenn man eigentlich gambling-fremd ist

Ich will aber nicht (ver-)urteilen, denn a) habe ich leicht reden und b) gibt es natürlich Kaufkraftunterschiede.

I never liked Cam as a person with all his antics and this giving the balls away always looked a bit fake to me, but it was exciting to watch him play when he was on. He is most likely done now, but especially in his MVP season, he was a monster.


He never really striked me as a franchise QB. He was average with the Vikings and this injury sort of ruined his career. The numbers with the Saints from last season look good, but they are/were a well-oiled machine and Carolina is the complete opposite He is an ok-ish QB with the right pieces around him, but he can't carry a team imo, which is what franchise QB's are able to do.


Talking about the Bears, I found this tweet the other day:


Source: https://twitter.com/Pat_Thorman/status/1243226020569907202

CfB hat auch mal wieder losgepoltert auf Twitter Hat über oder mit seinem Anwalt einen Brief an die Foundation geschrieben, in dem er 81TI (von David) einfordert.

Demnach hatte CfB nie Zugriff auf die BTC/JINN, die durch den Sale eingenommen wurden. Der Coordinator war bis April 2019 unter seiner Kontrolle und er war auch für den Transfer der unclaimed IOTA zuständig. In 06/17 wurden diese Token dann auf eine von Dominik kontrollierte Adresse gesendet, der dann wiederum den Transfer der Claims übernahm. In 08/18 wurden 65TI zu David geschickt, der diese dann an CfB schicken sollte, wenn Bedarf besteht (wegen auszuzahlender Claims).

Im selben Monat hat David dann ca. 2.5TI von diesen 65TI genutzt, um die Ternary GmbH zu finanzieren, die von einem Inder geführt wird und im Cloud Computing aktiv ist. Dieser Inder is u.a. auch Founder und CTO von Iotify, die im Bereich des IoT unterwegs sind. Wahrscheinlich nur eine Frage der Zeit, bis es da Zahlungen vom IOTA EDF gibt

In 12/19 hat CfB dann geclaimte 430GI an einen User ausgezahlt.

Zusätzlich gibt es noch weitere 16TI unclaimed IOTA. Diese 16TI wurden nicht zu Dom transferiert, sondern an Bitfinex und Yassin ausgezahlt für den Diebstahl von IOTA wegen des M-Bugs. Die IF hat also Werte, die ihnen nicht gehören, an andere Leute weitergegeben/verschenkt/kompensiert.

Alles verstanden ? Ich auch nicht.

Dieser ganze Brief ist extrem wirr und das bestätigt den Eindruck, den CfB zuletzt abgegeben hat - eine Legende demontiert sich selbst. Er will diese ganzen ungeclaimten IOTA haben, um sie an die rechtmäßigen Besitzer zu schicken, aber er hat mit der IF gar nichts mehr zu tun. Ausserdem wurden von den 81TI bestimmt schon eine ganze Menge an die Besitzer geschickt - er selbst hat ja auch schon 430GI geschickt - also müssten es deutlich weniger als 81TI sein.

David wiederum sagt, dass CfB noch 13.5TI in seinem Besitz hat, die einer Firma gehören, wo David 100% der Anteile hält.

Alles nachzulesen auf dem Twitter Account von CfB, der Brief ist hier: https://twitter.com/c___f___b/status/1242123046766419970

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Finde das Ganze extrem spannend zu verfolgen. CfB hat halt das Messer zwischen den Zähnen und wirkt teilweise wie ein geisteskranker und-wenn-es-das-Letzte-ist-was-ich-tue Lunatic, aber ich weiss nicht, ob David sauber aus der Sache rauskommen würde, wenn CfB alle Register zieht. Für mich ist es unbestritten, dass David da ein paar krumme Dinger zu seinen Gunsten gedreht hat (was natürlich normal in diesen Kreisen ist; man darf sich nur nicht erwischen lassen).

Well, this is of course photoshopped, in reality it doesn't look that obvious, but still hilarious


From the QB's I saw play in XFL, he was definitely by far the best, which is not that hard, if you saw the rest. The offenses weren't in sync and lots of players were rusty, but most of the time it was really awful to watch. As I said above, it will be a long season for the Panthers in the NFC South. I don't think Bridgewater will be able to make any noise with a very average roster and lets not forget, that they also lost their defensive captain and best player in Kuechly.

All things considered, he certainly is. Otoh there is not a lot of great goalkeepers in Bundesliga nowadays, so rather easy for a world class keeper like him to win that category by miles. I am waiting for Leipzig to make some move to sign a better goalkeeper, since I don't rate Gulacsi that high and money is no problem for them. His contract was extended to 2023, but well, a contract is just a contract. From the so called top-keepers in Bundesliga I think Sommer is easily the worst, but I can't back it up with stats. He just lacks presence in the box imo and is a bit short too (only 1.83m).
I like that Pavlenka guy from Bremen and think he will get signed by some good team, if Bremen relegates (even if not, he might be gone).

That passing accuracy stat is funny and a bit meaningless. Most teams don't press against Bayern, so Neuer is doing a lot of short passes, while the other keepers have to go for the long ball more often than not. But Neuer is of course a very good footballer, so even if the opponents were pressing more, he would probably lead that statistic.

Germany always had multiple world class keepers; thats one position they were never short of:

Sepp Maier
Toni Schumacher
Bodo Illgner
Oliver Kahn
Jens Lehmann
Manuel Neuer

Those were the main keepers for german NT in the last 50+ years. Impressive list. Lehmann was probably the worst of those and he had quite a career too.

I am pretty sure, we will see Bundesliga come May again, but behind closed doors. There are more and more people demanding to relax the curfew and at some point authorities have to give in. Some Bundesliga teams train again in small groups and the infected german players are healed. These are all young people (some coaches/staff are older) and younger people will be allowed to go out again after Easter.

Only scenarios, where I don't see Bundesliga starting in May again are a) if the situation in Germany gets really bad or b) if the situation in China worsens again after they are slowly re-starting their economy (which is happening right now).

During these boring times, we can maybe have a look at all those logos:



Source: https://www.sportslogos.net/teams/list_by_league/7/National_Football_League/NFL/logos/

By far my #1 is the Cardinals, I just like that bird. Raiders is quite cool and I also like the Viking from MIN. Most boring is Chicago, and Jacksonville I never liked as well. Both New Yorks won't get any design award any time soon too.

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For me it's kind of weird thought to imagine Stidham/Hoyer being the starting QB for them this season. They have done quite well without Brady in 2008 (and 2016), but back then, it was just a matter of time, until Brady would return.
Not sure, if Belichick is the guy to tank and drafting a QB with a high pick in 2021 isn't a recipe for success too. If we expect Lawrence to need 1-2 seasons to adapt, you are looking at a 2-3 year span, where the Pats are in some vacuum. Now this is something that all teams have to go through every now and then (some teams even for ages ), but it will be strange to see the Pats maybe only being a middle of the pack team after so many years of domination.

Some more news from German Basketball League.

Giessen 46ers

The contracts of Kendall Lamar Gray (3.3ppg), Luke Petrasek (10.9ppg), Stephen Brown (13.0ppg), Jordan Barnett (9.7ppg), Teyvon Myers (14.3ppg) and Matt Tiby (11.5ppg) have all been canceled. Only US guy left is Brandon Thomas. Their roster is thinned out like crazy and five of their six top scorers are gone:


Source: https://www.easycredit-bbl.de/de/easycredit-bbl/historie/teams/t/2019-2020/421-gie/

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Today the 17 teams have agreed to further suspend all games until April 30th, but they still intend to finish the season, but maybe on a shortened schedule. A team like Giessen will have huge trouble winning any game without all these players. Could get interesting from a betting perspective.

Looks like Bundesliga will get suspended at least until April 30th. There are 9 rounds left to be played, plus the relegation matches and the cup matches. Next season is set to start July 31st for 2. Bundesliga and August 21st for Bundesliga. Counting from May on, this is 15 weeks until the new season starts for 2. Bundesliga. The players should be well rested, so no problem with playing double fixture weeks until the end of the season.

For 2. Bundesliga the regular season could be finished by the end of May then. There are no teams left in cup matches from this league, so each team has two months of preparation until the new season starts (apart from the team that plays relegation to Bundesliga).

For Bundesliga, it's a little bit more difficult, since you have the cup matches and EL/CL, but the new season starts 3 weeks later. So this should be fine as well; all competitions should be finished by middle/end of June.

If, which is quite possible, suspension is extended for more weeks, there is still the possibility to postpone the start of next season into September/October and get rid of the winter break, which will save another 4 weeks.

And if nothing helps, I could think of a 17-round-season for 2020/2021, which will start end of the year then.

You just need to put your wallet.dat's in the respective locations, here is a guide: https://forum.xaya.io/topic/231-video-how-to-back-up-a-wallet-and-restore-wallet-backups/

The Rams have revealed their new logo:


Source: https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1242165775647023105

I liked that old logo with that big horned sheep way better. I actually bought Rams gear some years ago because of that logo and the blue/gold colour combination, lol. That new logo reminds me a bit of the Chargers logo and now these teams even happen to play in the same city, weird.

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There are lots of trades happening, but nothing really worth mentioning. Cowboys C Frederick will retire. Probably one of the best centers in the league, but it's not that hard to find good centers and they are rather cheap. The Panthers are doing some QB stunts and I can only scratch my head, what they are doing. They still want to get rid of Cam, traded Allen to the Redskins for a pick, signed Bridgewater, the best QB from XFL and still have Grier on their roster. Being in a division with Matty Ice, Brees and Brady, Carolina looks like a train wreck.

Patriots have signed Hoyer. Stumbled across this tweet, which suggests Hoyer being or having been an important piece for them/Brady:


Source: https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1241814291034050564

And this article speculates about Watson being the next longterm QB for NE.

Well, just because it is industry standard to block arbers, I don't think this is justified. Afterall this is a competition and if bookmakers aren't alert and leave surebets on the table, it's fine to take advantage of it imo. Never understood why bookmakers would block customers, just for being a step ahead and bullying them for their mistakes. This goes for "normal" surebets of course.
Betting on obviously wrong odds, twisted numbers etc. is another story and it's fine to void these bets pre-match. But these are very rare occasions - unless you don't know what you are doing.

As for that very bet @LEVSKI7 mentioned; if Bet365 and Paddypower had the same lines, one could assume that these weren't wrong odds in first place. You will often see huge drops (in odds or HC's), if paid tipsters recommend a certain bet in small sports/leagues.

In contrast to what it may look like with all these posts in the gambling board, there is not a lot of (ambitious) betting people in here. The majority of users is, for different reasons, more into casino games. The fewer people, that prefer sportsbetting, are then recreational players and probably not your target audience. Then you have lots of users from poorer countries, for whom your prices are not affordable - 69,-/month is a lot of money for them. So in the end, what looks like a huge pool of potential customers, is just a very low number in reality.

As for me, I find your service very interesting and will keep on following via blogabet. It's always good to see what other people are doing/betting and their approach to it. That being said, your sample size is still too small for me, to consider subscribing. And for my liking you cover too many leagues and that last bet you posted, although half won, is a little red flag for me in the end. I doubt you have any insight in Burundi league and just based your pick on stats. So I guess, you just checked the last remaining scheduled matches and filtered out, what could be a good bet to have anything to bet on. This (stat picks) can be a successful way of betting, but not what I would like to follow with my money. Others might be ok with it of course, it's just about personal taste, so no offense.

Wishing you good luck for the future and lets hope, sports will resume fast, since it would also mean, that this virus is under control finally.

You didn't mention what kind of gambling you are looking for. Poker ? Betting ? Dice ? Casino in general ? You would have to specify in order for people to help you the best.


You shouldn't start gambling again then. Quarantine can be very boring, but you should look for other ways to entertain you. Playing some online games for example, reading books, exercise, Netflix, whatever.