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13401  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Why most of us are losing money in sports betting? on: November 08, 2020, 02:34:16 PM
This is the purpose of sports betting - it is entertainment. Fun always costs money. It is quite obvious that most people have fun here and "voluntarily" leave money when betting on their favorite team. Some of the players are trying to make money here, but this is an empty activity and sooner or later people find something better for themselves or they just start accepting bets instead of making them  Cheesy

That's what happened when people bet on their favorite team, most of them don't really care about the other opponent because when both betting and cheering for your favorite teams gives you so much excitement that you forgot the other team advantage. This is what happens with sports betting only those who are pro in this industry have done all the research before placing their bets.

By the way, I know that some fans are betting on the opposing team in order to make this defeat less bitter for themselves in case of defeat of their favorite team. This is quite funny, since they lose money in the event of the victory of their favorite team, but apparently this does not bother them.
13402  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Are there any truly safe bets in sports betting? on: November 07, 2020, 10:32:13 PM
Do you mean sports betting? I do not know what could be the reasons for falsifying something on a systematic basis there - the theory of probability does all the work legally and effectively. Sometimes "strange" results do happen in competitions, but these are actually rare cases, and we should not think from this that there is a "conspiracy of all".

Some gamblers have that belief that it's rigged, however, it will remained a theory since we can't prove that statement anyway. As a gambler, we have some mix belief or we are fully convince that the market is really rigged, however we are still betting on it, that means we are finding it favorable on our part.

I think the main reason for this behavior is that most bettors view it as a hobby/entertainment.
And here's my funny observation: let's say a match has 3 outcomes. Player A bets on 1st, Player B bets on 2nd, Player C bets on 3rd. And all three think the market is rigged against him  Grin
In fact, the risk / reward ratio plays against each of them and there is no falsification here.
13403  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Why most of us are losing money in sports betting? on: November 07, 2020, 09:56:03 PM
This is the purpose of sports betting - it is entertainment. Fun always costs money. It is quite obvious that most people have fun here and "voluntarily" leave money when betting on their favorite team. Some of the players are trying to make money here, but this is an empty activity and sooner or later people find something better for themselves or they just start accepting bets instead of making them  Cheesy
13404  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Are there any truly safe bets in sports betting? on: November 07, 2020, 09:51:18 PM
In fact, in theory, all strategies are bad and unprofitable (if not, then there is an error in the calculations). The paradox is that in practice you sometimes see a "profitable" strategy and it even works at a certain range of bets. But this is just a fluctuation of the normal distribution, and if you take a longer distance, you will still receive a total loss.
As it sounds logical if you are wrong all the time do vice versa and be profitable. But we are not wrong on all bets, as you mentioned the distribution is random. In theory, the strategy can be profitable for the short term but the time factor changes the outcome drastically due to the external factors. In my opinion, changing the strategies will not make the betting profitable because the market is rigged for many years.

Do you mean sports betting? I do not know what could be the reasons for falsifying something on a systematic basis there - the theory of probability does all the work legally and effectively. Sometimes "strange" results do happen in competitions, but these are actually rare cases, and we should not think from this that there is a "conspiracy of all".
13405  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing]: Manny Pacquiao vs. Conor McGregor on: November 07, 2020, 09:30:05 PM
I don't think the statistics of fights 22-26 are special. For aspiring boxers heading for the most important fights, a 20-0 stat is common. 22-26 doesn't look like legendary. As an athlete, Conor is good, but unfortunately he will be remembered more for sports scandals and kitsch than for his sports results.

That record is not easy to achieve, Conor McGregor just know the trick on how to make himself popular.

Even Manny Pacquiao, he does not have an undefeated record but he is one of the most popular boxer in the sports of boxing, we can ask people whom they think is better, Pacquiao or Mayweather and we know the answer is very obvious.

But why are you mixing popularity and athletic performance? I respect both of them in Conor, but he is not great either there or there. Time will pass and another show-man will repeat the same tricks. There is demand and there will be supply, people are willing to pay for the show.
13406  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Are there any truly safe bets in sports betting? on: November 07, 2020, 09:27:15 PM
I don't think there are strats which really help in practice, in real betting. They might be good in theory and they might give you some extra self confidence thinking you have some advantage and game under control but at the end thus you only deceive yourself. There is no guarantee for winning in any case.

In fact, in theory, all strategies are bad and unprofitable (if not, then there is an error in the calculations). The paradox is that in practice you sometimes see a "profitable" strategy and it even works at a certain range of bets. But this is just a fluctuation of the normal distribution, and if you take a longer distance, you will still receive a total loss.
13407  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Are there any truly safe bets in sports betting? on: November 05, 2020, 11:46:06 PM
I've read some strats that will help increase the odds of you winning regardless of whose team you are betting on.

This is quite interesting, can you share more about it? I haven't read any of that in my years of experience as a gambler, is that good only for a specific type of game, or you can apply in any types?

I don't know what exactly he meant, but most likely these are nonsense strategies like "the top team cannot lose three matches in a row." Based on this statement, the bank is divided into three parts and bets are placed on matches. After the first defeat, the second part of the bank is used, after the second, the third part of the bank. The bottom line is that profits are meager, but even top teams sometimes lose three matches in a row ...
13408  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing]: Manny Pacquiao vs. Conor McGregor on: November 05, 2020, 11:40:30 PM
I think no excuses will work anymore. In fact, Conor is a waste material for both UFC and boxing. I think he is well aware of this, so he is only trying to make as much money as possible while he is interesting to at least someone. I wonder in what area he will work after he finally retires from the fighting.

You guys need to show some respect to Conor. He has a terrific MMA track record. He has 22 wins from 26 fights to his name. It is true that he lost against Floyd in 2017, but then boxing is not his core domain. He was brave enough to accept a challenge outside his core domain. Will Manny or Floyd do something like this? Floyd previously tried his luck with WrestleMania, but he never participated in MMA.

I don't think the statistics of fights 22-26 are special. For aspiring boxers heading for the most important fights, a 20-0 stat is common. 22-26 doesn't look like legendary. As an athlete, Conor is good, but unfortunately he will be remembered more for sports scandals and kitsch than for his sports results.
13409  Economy / Speculation / Re: What will happen next if the resistance breaks? on: November 05, 2020, 10:42:33 PM
~
Adoption and accumulation continue, sure, but the fact that BTC exponentially increased in price in 2017 goes to show how disconnected price and underlying utility can be. Speculators just don't care about fees and congestion.
~

Why do you blame this growth only on speculation? Maybe it was caused precisely by the adoption and accumulation that reached a certain limit and "the dam burst"? In the modern digital world, where any trend can cover the entire population of the Earth in a week, this is quite possible.

And now if you look into the future and think that "speculators and their influence on bitcoin will be the same as in the past, technical improvements are not critical", then I think this will be a mistake.

That statement would be a lot more valid if BTC were trading in the $3,000s, or below $1,000. As it stands, it's obvious that demand is extremely strong in spite of the same limitations that existed after the activation of Segwit in 2017.

Honestly, I don't understand you. Why exactly these levels? And what does it really matter to accurately determine the level at which technical difficulties arise - 30k or 50k or 1 million? They will arise and it would be good to get rid of the problems in advance.
13410  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin breached $14k today on: November 05, 2020, 10:30:48 PM
Do I understand correctly that election mess is leading to a bitcoin rally? It turns out that if the courts begin (as it was already in 2000) and the announcement of the results is delayed, then bitcoin will have time to grow much stronger? On the other hand, if everything is settled quickly, will it lead to a quick correction?
13411  Economy / Speculation / Re: how many Bitcoin do you need to live comfy in event of hyperinflation? on: November 05, 2020, 10:27:17 PM
The hyperinflation of the dollar will mean the collapse of the entire world economy, and I think in these conditions, bitcoin will also lose its value. Only food, weapons, gasoline and sheltered accommodation will be valuable. If we talk about moderate inflation, then I think 100 bitcoins for me would be the solution to most of my problems)

Many are curious on what will happen if dollars fall and that's one of might possibly happen since for sure all country who rely with the US economy will collapsed also, I remember on the past global economic crisis where many got affected and how much more if that happen today. Although cryptocurrency is a good alternative but we cannot rely it for now due to unpredictable volatility of it.

And 100 Bitcoin is quite huge to leave a comfy life but that's not sustainable  so I will double up the figures since the one I think is 200 bitcoins and for that we can build a huge business and other more.

Unfortunately, I live in a third world country (Russia), so for me the amount of 100 bitcoins is already huge. But I'm not really looking for a sum to stop working. Rather, I'm looking for an amount of money that will allow me to change my country of residence with maximum comfort, and 100 bitcoins with a large reserve allow me to do this.
13412  Economy / Speculation / Re: how many Bitcoin do you need to live comfy in event of hyperinflation? on: November 01, 2020, 01:37:38 PM
The hyperinflation of the dollar will mean the collapse of the entire world economy, and I think in these conditions, bitcoin will also lose its value. Only food, weapons, gasoline and sheltered accommodation will be valuable. If we talk about moderate inflation, then I think 100 bitcoins for me would be the solution to most of my problems)
13413  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin breached $14k today on: November 01, 2020, 01:08:47 PM
There a lot more individual and group of financial institution to go into bitcoin coming very soon and boom to reach $50000 looks like not a dream anymore.
It has been 2 years since 2018 the price reached back to $14000 this is insane after we have been through down to $4000 in march, and now we are in strong bullish signal .
This is not a temporary hype. This is a real organic movement.
How confident are you guys riding this moment?

I'm not confident about this  Smiley In general, due to the epidemic and the ensuing crisis, it is very difficult to understand the current economic situation. I have the impression that small and medium-sized economic entities suffer and do not have free funds, while large ones, on the contrary, are bathed in money. And most likely it is they who can easily decide which direction the price of most assets, including bitcoin, will go.
13414  Economy / Speculation / Re: What will happen next if the resistance breaks? on: November 01, 2020, 12:37:02 PM
I don't think that a 10-20 percent price increase can be called a new hype. Perhaps the price can rise up to 20-30k dollars "on old luggage" (technical part), but can it stay there for a long time? I doubt it.

How much did Bitcoin really change between the 2013 and 2017 bubbles?

With that in mind, consider that the market rose from the $200s to $20K. When we were in the $200s, someone with your mentality would never have believed price could stay above $3K (or $10K, etc.) for such a long time. And yet we have.

Speculators are buying up all the BTC. They have been since inception, really. That throws a wrench into this theory that everything is dependent on big improvements in utility.

In fact, I separate the speculation component and the real use of bitcoin, I understand that they are related, but I am more interested in the real use.
You ask about differences by implying that they are either absent or insignificant. But tell me, could we imagine in 2013 that bitcoin would have a bandwidth problem? How often did we see this problem in those years? And in 2017, this problem has already become a new reality. We can call it differently, but the fact is that bitcoin/its demand has radically changed.
And now if you look into the future and think that "speculators and their influence on bitcoin will be the same as in the past, technical improvements are not critical", then I think this will be a mistake.
13415  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you read the TOS of a gambling site? Honest answer please. on: November 01, 2020, 12:26:24 PM
for online casinos that already earned reputation i don't really read the whole terms of service just to the section if they mandatory ask the players of kyc or not. i think that's the only important, an advantage for me if the gambling site has a valid license.

And how do you act if passing the KYC is a prerequisite in order to use the site? I see some kind of contradiction in your desires - as far as I know, if there is a license, then the KYC is required. All licensing governments try to know as much as possible about the service and its users.
13416  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing]: Manny Pacquiao vs. Conor McGregor on: November 01, 2020, 12:23:03 PM
Crazy numbers. But maybe due to the fact that the audience is starving for the spectacle (due to the covid epidemic and the ensuing recession in the entertainment industry) they will receive this money. I'd love to watch Connor get beaten, but in fact, such show-fight fees are disrespectful to athletes who fight in normal battles for normal titles but get much less.
If Conor McGregor gets beaten again he will find excuses on how he lost the fight, injury, lack of motivation and so on. He was hyped and jumped to boxing and fought just for the spectacle and the big money and he earned that. If Conor wanted to fight Manny he needs to convince Dana White first and i do not think they are in good terms after the DM leak by Conor.

I think no excuses will work anymore. In fact, Conor is a waste material for both UFC and boxing. I think he is well aware of this, so he is only trying to make as much money as possible while he is interesting to at least someone. I wonder in what area he will work after he finally retires from the fighting.
13417  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Multi bets vs single bets on: October 31, 2020, 03:56:41 PM
From a mathematical point of view, single bets are much better, since although they are unprofitable in the long run, they are much less unprofitable than multi-bets. I can't give a link now, but there have been many calculations on this topic.
From the point of view of psychology, it is still easier - it is much easier to come to terms with the defeat of the team on which the bet was made than with the fact that the multi-bet lost due to any one event.
13418  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing]: Manny Pacquiao vs. Conor McGregor on: October 31, 2020, 03:52:26 PM
Manny's net worth according to https://www.sportekz.com/boxing/manny-pacquiao-net-worth/ is $375 Million, so if they will make $500 in this fight and Manny will get a bigger slice of the cake, that's bigger than what he made during his fight against Mayweather.

For everyone's information, Manny made $150 million during his fight with Mayweather and that fight generated almost the same amount Mayweather vs McGregor fight generated. In short, Mayweather here is the one bringing money to the fight and we can see that in his previous fights.

Crazy numbers. But maybe due to the fact that the audience is starving for the spectacle (due to the covid epidemic and the ensuing recession in the entertainment industry) they will receive this money. I'd love to watch Connor get beaten, but in fact, such show-fight fees are disrespectful to athletes who fight in normal battles for normal titles but get much less.
13419  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you read the TOS of a gambling site? Honest answer please. on: October 31, 2020, 03:19:19 PM
~
If we don't read the TOS, we would not know if there's a changes on it, like they added or omit on the original.
I agree with you that most of us does not read TOS, we just want to do things automatic so we are looking to gamble instead of reading TOS.
~

The irony is that most TOSs have a warning that they can be changed unilaterally without direct notification to the user (usually a link is provided to where the current TOSs are located and where changes will be made). That is, the user must check this link every day to keep up to date. On the one hand, it is easy, on the other hand, if you use 20 different services, then it becomes a little real.
13420  Economy / Speculation / Re: What will happen next if the resistance breaks? on: October 31, 2020, 03:13:47 PM
There will always be technical improvements. I'm just saying speculators tend to front run them, buying today based on tomorrow's expected utility. That's why BTC price can rise exponentially in a bubble despite the disappointing UX, fees, etc. newcomers face.

I just thought that speculators can accelerate the price of bitcoin and lead to these sad consequences (high fees, etc.) even if the development of bitcoin at some point will outstrip user requests. That is, it turns out that in any case, speculators can lead everything to an absurd situation. This is both funny and sad at the same time.

Now the network bandwidth is close to its maximum. No hype with new users can happen purely for technical reasons. This means that you need to add a couple of stages of development to your scheme.

I don't think so. Price tells the whole story. It's been rising into this network congestion. Speculators don't care how high fees are, as long as they expect to make much bigger profits by trading or holding.

I don't think that a 10-20 percent price increase can be called a new hype. Perhaps the price can rise up to 20-30k dollars "on old luggage" (technical part), but can it stay there for a long time? I doubt it.
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