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1361  Other / Off-topic / Average age of bitcoin user. on: February 19, 2012, 09:44:22 PM
For demographic interests, what is your current age?
1362  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoinica verification and the price on: February 19, 2012, 08:00:30 PM
how do this verification thing by bitcoinica will affect the price ?


It will affect volume as it removes some of the underage users from trading without their parents permission.
1363  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitscalper anyone use this ? [PASSWORDS LEAKED] on: February 19, 2012, 12:31:58 PM
Can we get a "SCAMMER" tag on bitscalper for not giving all their depositors money back?

and....

A big "IDIOT" tag on the people that gave money to bitscalper and complain they were scammed?
1364  Other / Politics & Society / Re: A Concise Political Views Poll on: February 19, 2012, 12:16:32 PM
Code:
Progressive/Socialist/Conservative/Pro-Government/Etc.

So thats 99% of voters in real elections in one neat box and you have 7 options for the rest :O

Well when the State in many cases births them, educates/indoctrinates them, and promises to give them some of their money back when they are old, how else would they vote?
1365  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Why China’s Political Model Is Superior on: February 19, 2012, 12:06:18 PM
China is doing great now because they have opened their borders to the world, but will crash in two years.
Then their "system" wont appear so great.

Corruption Threatens China’s Future
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2007/10/09/corruption-threatens-china-s-future/g4


The American media have a love hate relationship with China.  They would love to have a strong federal government that could regulate the minuta of every economic activity in America, but hate China or perceived human rights abuses.

I travel to China 4 or 5 times a year; sometimes living in China for almost 6 months out of the year.  I don't go to foreigner areas, ride the normal public transportation, and live in normal people's homes.  This is what I experience.

CORRUPTION
I agree.  The corruption is terrible.  Imagine taking a family member to the doctor and having to tip the doctor so he gives your family member the best service.  Consumer protection is terrible.  There are common scams of getting people to pay thousands of RMB for worthless vitamins because it is "traditional Chinese medicine."

The police are basically worthless; nothing more than bad traffic enforcement or people that tell you the directions.  If there is a problem with someone else, you win by making the biggest scene.

This does not even go into the corruption that is high in the Chinese housing market.  Local governments get a large part of their budget from land development.  They stole land from prior owners, give it to the developers, and take a nice portion for their personal fee.  Now the housing market is crashing.  Some homes in China have reduced their selling price by 70%.

POLLUTION
The first time I went to China I stayed in Shenzhen, the first SEZ of china and borders Hong Kong.  The pollution was so bad I got an ulcer in the back of my throat.  Now, most of the time I go to Guangzhou and stay in the countryside with relatives.  I stay away from the city if I can.

LABOR
Chinese people do work hard, but no harder than Americans.  When I first went to China I had trouble with their afternoon naps.  I just couldn't follow their lead.  What is terrible about Chinese labor is their laws.  They are not enforced.  If a Chinese employee is late for work or makes a mistake, then the employeer cuts the employees pay.  If the employee quits their job before their next paycheck.  It is common that they will never receive that paycheck.  Non-payment of employees is common.

PROTECTIONISM
The myth that Chinese people don't buy a lot of things is false.  China is the largest purchaser of luxurious items now.  What China does though is require any companies to sell their products in China to join with a Chinese company.

THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF CHINA AND THE RULE OF LAW
There is not really any laws in China.  5000 years of civilization has not changed the fact that the Party is the law now.  Henry Kissinger may say China has 5000 years of diplomatic history and have many tricks up their sleeve, but a totalitarian party that crushes any revolt by the people is a party that is in fear of losing power.  That fear makes them short sighted.  Until the Party is overthrown there is no way for China to be a model for other nations.  If a man gets to rich and successful he is put in prison.  If people protest for more rights, they are stomped on.

THE PEOPLE OF CHINA
This is the strength of China.  People with dreams and passions.  The people of China want China to be a modern nation.  They don't care about being a superpower, but want to be equal members in the world and given respect.  The people of China are some of the most hospitable people I have ever met.  While not all people achieve great knowledge, generally people of the nation see the pursuit of knowledge as a virtues endeavor.
1366  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica Inc on: February 19, 2012, 10:55:39 AM
when will we know the solution?

Soon. We have hired a few legal and financial professionals to work on corporate structure. We already got the licenses so we have started collecting identifications.

Is there any deadline for customer verification at this point (from the customer's POV)?  What features are expanded and/or enabled upon verification?  I.e. what can't I do now that I will be able to do after verification?

Thanks!

Currently there's no deadline. Our company is in the transitioning period and we have to "try our best" to collect IDs. You will enjoy unlimited instant withdrawals (including Mt. Gox and Bitcoin) if you verify now. Otherwise, the same approval process will apply.

We will roll out a series of incentives for verified customers. And after we announce the deadline, unverified customers will have to withdraw all their funds and close their accounts before that date.

How many accounts can a single user have?
1367  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitscalper anyone use this ? [PASSWORDS LEAKED] on: February 18, 2012, 10:43:41 PM
i do believe this is highly negligible and criminal what theymos has tried to do.
Huh
what did he do

Theymos pointed every scammer on the internet to bitscalper.


This can be taken as proof.
We are just checking that everything is in order, funds appear safe. We had hundreds of hack attempts those last days and we need to make sure there was no security breach at all and remove the bogus requests before filling withdrawals.

this is text book definition criminal negligence, this kind of action by an admin of bitcointalk should not be allowed to stand.

Lets say a reporter said on TV to not buy cars at a car dealership because they the cars they sold all used the exact same key.  Then a bunch of scammers went to the dealership because they heard the report and tried to steal the cars.  The fault lies with the car dealership not the reporter for being negligent in not knowing how to secure a car lock.
1368  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica has paid out the first day's interest! on: February 18, 2012, 04:21:02 PM
Why do you need to continue paying interest if you have no shortage of funds?

Because we want to offer our customers a consistent payout. Our interest rate is calculated every 30 minutes based on our funds. There's no guarantee that we won't have a shortage of funds if people start to open positions in the same direction.

Our aim is to avoid the asterisk permanently. And we have to charge arbitrary swaps to fund the interest system.

I see.  Most FOREX money markets will charge the swap for any position held overnight.  Since Bitcoinica is 24/7 they need to charge constantly.
1369  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is Bitcoin overpriced or needs more publicity? on: February 18, 2012, 03:50:50 PM

Why don't the graphs have units on the x and y axis?
1370  Economy / Speculation / Re: What if Bitcoinica requires identification for all customers? on: February 18, 2012, 12:26:05 PM

So again, I'd go a step beyond saying it's a necessary sacrifice, and describe it as more of a necessary inconvenience. That which was really anonymous yesterday will also be anonymous tomorrow.

So for Bitcoin offshore is going to be Tor Hidden Service.
1371  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is Bitcoin overpriced or needs more publicity? on: February 18, 2012, 12:23:00 PM
Your indicators are worthless, Technomage. They have nothing to say about price, and for no timeframe.

You remind me of bitcoinbull who predicted that 10$ was the bottom using historical Difficulty vs. Price ratios: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=7427.msg325241#msg325241

I guess history repeats.

I also don't like the cost of mining charts.  They lag.  It is like the price of mining any commodity.  For example, the price of rare earth metals is not based on the difficulty in mining them or their rarity around the world.  It is based on the demand and supply of them.  Since China has almost a monopoly on rare earth metal mining they control the supply.  As we need more rare earth metals for our gagets the demand increases.

The graphs I posted are just an attempt to measure demand.  Another interesting chart to measure demand would be some kind of velocity measure of money.

To measure supply I would suggest estimating how many bitcoins each of the large mining pools generate and what is the volume on the exchanges.
1372  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoinica Inc on: February 18, 2012, 12:08:33 PM
yep, I was going to put Guernsey or Jersey as the poll option or the Channel Islands but got too lazy to look up the correct spelling for it, so Guernsey would get the double prize if correct

here's a summary of choices so far

teflone                             Hong Kong
Otoh                                Grand Cayman Islands
Qoheleth                          Singapore
AndDuffy                          USA
N.Olmos                           Belize
stochastic                         Cayman Islands
Kluge                               Syria
coin_toss                          Bahamas
Jonathan Ryan Owens        Isle of Man
johnthedong                      Malaysia
ineededausername             Nevis
myself                               Guernsey


stochastic, the Grand Cayman Islands are already taken, so unless you meant Cayman Brac, and Little Cayman then please to choose again

Hong Kong being the favorite in the poll atm


Damn missed that.  I will choose Japan then. 
1373  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is Bitcoin overpriced or needs more publicity? on: February 18, 2012, 12:03:53 PM
Bitcoin needs Pokerstars to support bitcoin payments.  Americans would love it.  The US government would surely find a way to sabotage Pokerstars however.

Send a request that they use it.
1374  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is Bitcoin overpriced or needs more publicity? on: February 18, 2012, 11:56:31 AM
Google search trends do not take into account accumulated interest very accurately because those already using Bitcoin in one way or another rarely google "Bitcoin". This is why I think that it will become less accurate as an indicator as time goes on. I think it's already more inaccurate than it used to be. Not that I think it can be used to predict anything anyway, mostly it seems that the trends follow price, not the other way around.

 

That is why I use insights.  It is smart enough to not only use bitcoin but also other bitcoin related searches.  If you check out the results or bitcoin and download the csv file.  You can see that mtgox is number 15 and SR is number 17.

The only time trend really follows price is the current time period after October 2011, which I feel bitcoins will come down to about $4.00 each.
1375  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is Bitcoin overpriced or needs more publicity? on: February 18, 2012, 11:08:47 AM
what bitcoin needs is more offshore gambling

Bitcoin needs a lot more usability.
1376  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do you use options in your trading strategy? on: February 18, 2012, 11:07:35 AM
You can trade options here: http://polimedia.us/bitcoin/options.php

I want to give them a try eventually.  A good options market will do wonders of keeping volatility down.  Imagine if more people protected their long positions with buying a put.  Then if the price declined too much at least they would not panic.
1377  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is Bitcoin overpriced or needs more publicity? on: February 18, 2012, 10:01:25 AM
chodpadpa reported that the best correlation is between prices at day - 3 (that is price is leading trends by 3 days).  Personally I did not check this.

Correlation between what? That the price today is explained by the price 3 days ago?

Edit:

I could not find a user by the name of chodpadpa but I did some tests.  Finding the Pearson's correlation between today's price and the price 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, and 30 days prior.

minus 1 day ---->       r=0.9823598
minus 2 day ---->       r=0.9531210
minus 3 day ---->       r=0.9472155
minus 5 day ---->       r=0.9199642
minus 10 day -->        r=0.8384874
minus 30 day -->        r=0.5698149

So if I understand what you are saying correctly then no, the best correlation is between prices at day - 1, obviously.


If you mean the best correlation is between prices at day - 3 and the search index then I don't know.  Google only gives me data in weekly format.  I can do a week prior.

r = 0.9010368 versus my original data of r = 0.8817653, but there is no significant difference between the correlation strengths (p=0.64).
1378  Economy / Speculation / Is Bitcoin overpriced or needs more publicity? on: February 18, 2012, 09:04:07 AM
In case anyone else is interested.  I generated the following graphs using Google Insights search return for "bitcoin" for the last 53 weeks and MtGox weekly price data from bitcoincharts.com over the same time period.

The first graph plots the MtGox weekly close along with the Google Insight relative search indicator.  The second graph gives a better representation of the correlation.

From the top graph someone might say that bitcoins are are overpriced.  But looking at the bottom graph might give bulls incentive to pimp bitcoin as much as they can.  Here is a test.  Do you think there a correlation or not?

Pearson's r = 0.8817653





1379  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitscalper anyone use this ? [PASSWORDS LEAKED] on: February 18, 2012, 08:18:20 AM
Because of personal freedom concerns, management of bitscalper was forced to leave the site alone for the last ten days.

It means they left the site unattended for 10 days and apparently no communication whatsoever about it.
Either they are paranoid or there is a real concern were they are ( Italy if i remember)


Maybe the admin pass got changed.  It looks like the site got refreshed.
1380  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do you use options in your trading strategy? on: February 18, 2012, 06:20:37 AM
Would you like to tell us about a site where we can trade bitcoin options?

No, I have not used it yet.  When I do I will report back.
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