Yep, the order that is in public table is best, which is by kick-off time/official SB schedule. So for this week, this would be:

Bologna - Benevento 1
Celta de Vigo - Elche 1
Leicester City - Liverpool 2
Stuttgart - Hertha 2
Bremen - Freiburg 2
Napoli - Juventus 2
Eibar - Valladolid 2
Brighton - Aston Villa 2
Roma - Udinese 1
Southampton - Wolverhampton 2
Sampdoria - Fiorentina 1
Real Madrid - Valencia 1
Everton - Fulham 1
Inter - Lazio 1
Villareal - Betis 1

But I'll take the time, if users choose another order or just post their screenshots Only just a link to betslip is not optimal, because once the games have started, you can't check no more, what were the actual picks (which is normally no problem in here though).

OP recently became active again in bitcointalk after a 2+ year break and is doing good and helpful posts imo. But looks like he wasn't aware of merit/ranks/signatures until two days ago, because he was asking in the german bounty thread (showing interest in joining a campaign):


Translated:


Not sure what happened afterwards and made him so mad, but it started with this rant and goes on in here now picking on bullrun. While I personally think bullrun shouldn't ask for merit in qwk's thread no more - because once you have 1000 of them, there is no point in having more - it's not against the rules qwk set and is free to set, i.e. all non-Legendaries are allowed there to ask for getting their posts merited. (qwk is doing it that way btw, because he doesn't have enough time to read "all" the posts in german local and he is main merit source there)

You seem to be a bit butthurt @muenze for whatever reason, but you can't expect to have tons of merits after being away for so long, while bullrun was/is investing a lot of time and effort for over a year now. It's actually not necessarily always about the sheer quality of posts, but also if you are liked and respected by your fellow forumites etc. When you like a user in general, you are more likely to give them merit as well and vice versa. This is just normal human behaviour and nothing to dwell on, it will never be 100% fair - not in life and not with the merits. You will get there sooner or later, just keep going

Hängt natürlich von der Höhe des Gewinns ab Bei 200-600k zahlst du >40% Steuern, also irgendwas zwischen ~80 und ~280k. Kannst ja mal nach Grundtabelle 2021 googlen. Ich würde da ja eher warten bis die Haltefrist rum ist, vor allem weil auch eventuell deine Krankenversicherungsbeiträge erhöht werden, je nachdem wie du versichert bist.

Ja, leider ist da so viel Eigen-Pump nicht mit dabei, sondern wir sind gerade mal bei Ende-2020-Niveau, während andere unbekannte Höhen erklimmen. Ist natürlich besser als nichts - und das Volumen hat auch mal bisschen zugelegt - aber irgendwie fährt man doch mit vielen anderen Sachen noch wesentlich besser
IOTA schwimmt halt so im Markt mit ohne da irgendwie herauszustechen. Die letzten Updates waren gut, aber ich glaube nicht, dass das alles so reibungslos läuft und gehe eher davon aus, dass ein Ausbrechen aus dem allgemeinen Mitschwimm-Trend nicht so zeitnah passiert; gibt noch zu viel zu tun bei IOTA. Im nächsten bullrun sollte es dann aber klappen


Quelle: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/iota/

Und man schaue sich mal den all-time-graph an :


Quelle: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/iota/

Ist noch ein weiter Weg

Here are the results, I kind of like those "fast" MM's tbh:



buwaytress gets the 100 NFL fame points with a solid 9 correct picks, gratz I don't think this will be enough for any prize, my guess would be that we will see the winner with 12 correct and then lots of others with 11/10.

@Trofo
In the end you were kind of correct with being pessimistic, but buwaytress admitted to not have that much clue about NFL and did quite well, so it is possible^^

I guess we are all looking forward to a normal MM weekend again next week; see you then

The Chiefs are really beating themselves with all those penalties. They had all the momentum in the world after that goal line stand, which was a beauty to watch, and gave it all away with some dumb play/penalties. Otoh they are only down two scores and get the ball first in HT2, so there is hope for them, if they can somehow regroup during halftime.

My Betslip:
https://prnt.sc/yofvxe

My Predictions:
1. Total Points - 75
2. Total Yards - 1050
3. Number of 1st Downs - 33

Yes, correct and nice post/thoughts. Probably should have written that Mahomes has more options when the pressure comes or the pocket collapses. Brady will just throw the ball away, while Mahomes can still make something happen with his feet before having to throw the ball away/finding an open receiver/getting sacked eventually.

As you mentioned Brady just has a great pocket awareness and won't hesitate too long to give up the play, when nobody is open, thus his very good stats in Sacks/PA. He just won't let him get sacked too often, while others hold onto the ball a bit longer and take the sack every now and then instead. Now Mahomes imo is kind of a hybrid compared to Brady and Wilson/Watson, i.e. he is also not afraid to just throw the ball away, but he has the option of leaving the pocket, if he sees some space. In recent times I felt that he threw the ball away more frequently, which is probably something Reid told him, since it's better for his durability longterm.

Sacks often don't tell the whole story, like with so many stats Sacks are nice, but getting frequent QB pressure is probably more important. The Giants in 2008/2012 only had 3 sacks each, but they were near Brady "all" game and it stressed him and helped the secondary.
You also have this approach used with mobile QB's that you don't want to collapse the pocket and go for the sack no matter what, but to just get enough pressure on the QB with leaving the pocket intact. That way you contain him in the pocket and make it harder for him to beat you with his feet. Those big QB runs often happen when the pocket collapses and the secondary is down the field with all the WR's.

Yes, I missed it sorry, because you edited it into your post later and I didn't recognize. Put you in the table - and some more enthusiasm please As I said above I don't think even a NFL expert has much of an advantage here, since most selections will have a super random outcome. And already the coin toss will have some influence on the following selections most likely and who can correctly predict the coin toss ?! I only know one person that could and that is efialtis with his big mouth as usual

Added you too @efialtis, welcome to the MM family.

Won't post the screen again, here is the link to the table, where only three consensus picks remain : Superbowl MM

I hope I made no mistakes, getting confused by my own table, lol.

Looks like people are very shy to post their predicitions so I will already publish the entry list for this years SB MM



As you can see the two participants have a whopping 8 consensus picks, which is a new record afaik. 33.33% draws picked is a new record as well, so everyone not participating in this record-breaking MM is no real MMer, if you ask me jk

Good luck to all participants....err....buwaytress

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Here is the screenshot for my picks: SB MM

I have added Lithuania/Ukraine to the list and Germany also announced their artist, whom I don't know, but not the song yet. Glad that The Roop get another chance this year, but as said the song isn't that good this time unfortunately. The ukrainian entry, well


I don't think Belarus stands a chance with "just" some political song, it takes a bit more to win the ESC. This competition always covered some social elements as you mentioned, but you have to have an above average entry as well - then some little extra message coming along with your song could put you on top, even when there are technically better entries. But, no offense to all people from Belarus, I don't think a lot of people are aware and/or interested what happens in Belarus and it wouldn't influence their vote that much.

And Belarus is doing pretty weak in ESC in general. They participated 16 times since 2004 and reached the final only 6 times. Of those 6 times they finished 5 times out of Top15 (24/16/16/17/24) and once took 6th place in 2007. It really needs a great song and stellar performance for them to win "easily" imo - political statement or not

First of all I think this game will not be decided by both offenses, but by the defenses and which defense can make crucial stops and/or get turnovers. Furthermore I think this will be a super close one, I mean really close, where TB will lead for most of the game and also win the SB in the end. @morvillz7z posted a nice list of pros&cons there and I will add a few thoughts.


KC surely has the upper hand in the coaching department - I like Arians and he is a good coach, but Reid is still a level above. But the Bucs can compensate this gap a bit with the Goat himself, who has tons of experience in such games and is a little on-field coach and a better one than Mahomes.

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It's really hard to beat a top team twice in a season, even more so twice in away games. And this, and the home field advantage in general, is something that is missing for me, when I look at the odds. If you have a blank sheet of paper and start compiling the odds, you first add the home advantage and this makes the odds go from 50/50 to 60/40 or ~1.7 vs 2.5. I don't see how these odds are switched when you add all the other factors in afterwards.

I still remember Michael Strahan saying in 2008: "We need to get to Tom Brady or we will not win this Superbowl". Who do I trust more to make the opposing QB feel uncomfortable ? Bucs.
Season sacks: TB 48, Chiefs 32
Sacks allowed: TB 22, Chiefs 24
Of course Mahomes can defend himself way better against the pass rush with his mobility than Brady can do, but still.

As I said before, the Chiefs weren't super convincing all season long, winning a lot of close games (which is some quality of its own tbf), showing different faces and having their ups and downs during the 60 minutes of a game - they won't get away with this today. TB has the better scalps recently winning @NO and @GB, so I dare to say that they are the hotter team for me right now, albeit them having their problems in this season as well, but not so much during a single game.

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All in all the odds for TB represent some value for me and I will play ML on the Bucs. No big stakes, because no big value and this will be close till the end (hopefully !). I am pretty sure you will get both teams >3 inplay, so prematch ML should only be a smaller bet for some adrenaline right from the start

I also like the under, but this is super meh to bet on in a SB.

@notblox 1

You can't really analyze a lot or lets say even with (trying to) analyzing you won't have a better chance in this short period of time, unless you know the NFL and teams inside out. Sometimes it's better to not know toooo much, then beginners luck is more likely to strike

Most of these bets are really 50/50 and some even might depend on each other a bit. So any team that wins the coin toss is likely choosing to receive, i.e. they will get the ball first. Which then means, they have the first opportunity to score. KC's rushing attack is weaker than TB's, so if KC gets the ball first and happens to score a TD, then it's more likely to be a reception than a rush. But there are gazillions of these scenarios and nobody can tell, which one will occur. A lot of sports, but especially NFL, are a game of details and no expert in the world can forecast these things correctly. And in contrast to betting, this is not about value, but just to get it right no matter the odds^^

What you should keep in mind, is that Buccaneers have a "home game", since the SB is played in Tampa Bay this year.

What can be analyzed a bit is the jersey numbers and here they are with the # of TD's scored this season:

Buccaneers Rushing

Player	Jersey Number	Touchdowns
________________________	________________________	________________________
Jones III	27	7
Fournette	28	6
Brady	12	3

Buccaneers Passing

Player	Jersey Number	Touchdowns
________________________	________________________	________________________
Evans	13	13
Godwin	14	7
Gronkowski	87	7
]Brown	81	4
Miller	10	3
Brate	84	2
Johnson	18	2
Howard	80	2
Vaughn	30	1
Jones III	27	1

Chiefs Rushing

Player	Jersey Number	Touchdowns
________________________	________________________	________________________
Edwards	25	4
Bell	26	2
Mahomes	15	2
Williams	31	1
Thompson	34	1
Hill	10	2

Chiefs Passing

Player	Jersey Number	Touchdowns
________________________	________________________	________________________
Hill	10	15
Kelce	87	11
Hardman	17	4
Robinson	11	3
Watkins	14	2
Edwards	25	1

You can find all kind of stats - any stat you can imagine really - by googling, but imo this is a waste of time for this kind of competition

I made a table for this special edition of the MM, but I won't include the results into our soccer MM things because of the reasons @Trofo mentioned. I can still award some tasty NFL fame points and the winner will be sure to be the fame king at least until in the Draft in April or maybe even until the next SB in one year

Here is the table.


I wouldn't be so sure about Bayern winning today, looks like a trap Hertha will sooner or later start to get back on winning track after changing coaches (back to their beloved Pál Dárdai, with whom they have been very successful in the past and who has Hertha DNA) and signing Khedira. Generally they already have pretty good quality in their squad, but Labbadia just wasn't able to form a proper team. Hertha has done pretty good in recent years against Bayern at home and played them pretty hard at Munich earlier this season - it needed a penalty in 90+3 to make it 4-3 for Bayern.

Kick-off for this game was shifted to 30min earlier, so that Bayern will be able to get on plane after the game to fly to FIFA Club World Cup in Qatar. Bayern players might be a little bit stressed because of that, but not sure

In the end Bayern should still win this, but I would be careful with the stakes

/offtopic

Jein. Du musst sicherlich bisschen was versteuern, aber die Höhe muss nicht 60k bzw. 57k sein.

Grundsätzlich - wie schon so oft erwähnt - musst du jeden unterjährigen Trade versteuern, Krypto/Fiat aber auch Krypto/Krypto. Wenn dein Portfolio von 20k auf 60k wächst, ohne dass du etwas (unterjährig) verkaufst, dann sind die 40k nicht zu versteuern vereinfacht gesagt.
Letztendlich musst du jeden einzelnen Trade anschauen, Gewinn/Verlust auf Eurobasis ermitteln und aufsummieren.


Bei so kleineren Beträgen lohnt wohl der Aufwand nicht, aber nur weil dein Anfangsinvest von 10k bis Ende 2020 auf 3k geschrumpft ist, heisst das nicht, dass du steuerlich keinen Gewinn in dieser Zeit gemacht hast. Tradinggewinne hast du eventuell schon gemacht, aber wenn du dann irgendwann auf deinen Kryptos sitzen bleibst, kann ein Kursverfall (z.B. BTC von 20k auf 4k) dein Portfolio immens schrumpfen, aber es besteht trotzdem eine Steuerschuld.

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Schon auf mehrere Jahre Solange halt, bis man irgendwann mal was Handfestes hat.

Ich glaube letztendlich gibt es da kein richtig/falsch, einfach weil es keine klare, verständliche rechtliche Grundlage gibt (halt alles Neuland ); hängt dann erstmal davon ab, ob das FA das abnickt. Und so lange es da keine höchstrichterlichen Urteile und/oder Rechtssicherheit gibt, kann man nur nach bestem Wissen handeln. Sieht man ja hier auch schon, dass Steuerberater/Anwalt A das sagt, und B wieder was anderes.
Was aber mMn wichtig ist, ist, dass man kongruent handelt und sich das nicht gerade so hinbaut, wie es einem gerade steuerlich am besten ins Konzept passt. Also entweder immer als Einkommen angeben oder immer mit Anschaffungskosten 0,- bei Verkauf versteuern oder oder oder

The next round of DFB Cup will be played today and tomorrow and with Bayern being already eliminated lots of teams have a good opportunity to lift the trophy come May in Berlin:


Source: https://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/dfb-pokal/

Most games look a bit boring, but there will be some surprises and close ones, albeit the odds did suggest a rout beforehand. Don't see Dortmund/Leverkusen struggling today; lets see what Kiel does after their heroic performance in last round, this could well go into overtime again in freezing temperatures.

Bremen traditionally is a very good cup team and they have improved a lot compared to last season especially defensively. They are still not doing that well at home, which has always been their bread and butter as long as I can remember. Fürth is playing a great season in 2. Bundesliga and are most technically skilled team behind Hamburg. They are the best away team having lost only once on the road all season, basically full squad available for tonights match.
I played btts since a) Werder under the lights in a cup match is a different team (in a positive way !) and b) Fürth is just so good offensively and they never failed to score in an away game this season. All in all I think this will be a good match with some good old fashioned drama in Weserstadion like we could witness gazillion times in the past. @1.6x

I did the spreadsheet for the SwC poker series and tbf he never joined with the NEpats93 account there. And it was organized by efialtis, while the currently running Poker Series at Betnomi, where he plays/played as well, is organized by Yahoo.

Just for clarification, not for defending or judging

Here are the results for week 4:



How in the world did that guy get Leeds AND Lazio right ? Getting 11+ in this MM correct is huge, because as you can see by our average and all the red, the favourites were struggling quite a lot.
Last weeks hero arallmuus had a nightmare this week as did the often so solid Avirunes, but doesn't matter if you hit 4 or 10 in the end, if there is one guy with 11+. What remains is another round of disappointment on a Sunday evening and the hope for better luck next weekend.

I still would be super interested to know the total number of participants per week (Steve ? )

And the 2021 stats:



Things are shaping up a bit and after buwaytress' good start this week, I thought he might end the drought and win again after gazillions of tries, but Hoffenheim beating Bayern was too much to ask for - although you did great with getting Newcastle and Leeds right And if this happens....


....I think it will be him; certainly not me^^ But I don't think we will see a 15/15 very soon tbh, not in 2021 is my call, at least in a 3-way MM.

France and Israel have made their selections:

Barbara Pravi - Voilà
Eden Alene - Set Me Free

The french entry is totally not mine, but maybe some people will like it. As we know non-english songs generally have a bit harder time, but at least "Voilá" is a word that everyone knows
Israel is a more modern pop song and kind of catchy, but in the end the typical ESC trash. Odds above 300 don't suggest this entry being able to make any noise, but you never know

If anyone finds the songs/videos of Greece/Cyprus, please post, but I don't think they have been published yet.

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@LTU_btc

Is this the song from The Roop for this year ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWqrdzNoBKA