EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 13, 2017

European yields increased again together with the stabilization of risk appetite and revival of the global stock market that keeps buoying the EURUSD pair.

Eurozone peripherals had performed better while the European Central Bank assures for a cautious move as it prepares to ease off the stimulator. Meanwhile, the chain store sales of the United States declined after the destructive hurricanes Harvey and Irma that are predicted to put pressure on the national figures for this week.

The German economic ministry anticipates slow growth in the H2, which implies that employment growth might curb sentiment.

The euro-dollar pair formed another Doji day showing the opening and closing level were at the same point reflecting an indecision. The support highlighted the 1.1937 level close to the 10-day moving average. While the resistance came in at 1.2092 near the September peaks.

The momentum is in the neutral position and the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator prints around the zero index level linked with a flat trajectory that shows some consolidation. Moreover, the  RSI (relative strength index) known to be a momentum oscillator that assesses the increasing or decreasing momentum. The index prints a reading of 59 in the middle of the neutral range, which also indicates further consolidation.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 11, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen had a significant breakdown during the Friday session. Nevertheless, the market proceeds to move downward and a breakdown lower than 108.0 level gives a negative outlook. Hence, this could lead to a further decline and even lower than the 105 level. This gives a very pessimistic outlook and the concept of the Federal Reserve in not raising its interest rates for short-term would persist to have an effect on the market. It is next to monitor the equities which would also influence the next movement of the pair.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 8, 2017

The US dollar weakened versus the safe-haven Japanese Yen amid Thursday’s session and tested the 108.50 handle. This level appeared to be an interesting area because it is the bottom of the longer-term consolidation. A close under this region of the daily candle will push the market downwards through the next major support hurdle, which is the level of 105 below.

Otherwise, when the market rebounded from that point, then it is possible to return to the 109.50 mark. It will take some time for the market to declare their targets and we are currently at a very significant region on the longer-term charts.

French President Supports EU Ties with Turkey

The president of France, Emmanuel Macron, commented on Thursday that the Turkey is essentially part of the European Union and sustain its diplomatic relationships despite its distressing problems as of lately. This comment from Macron supports the recent speech of German Chancellor Angela Merkel about the membership with E.U. particularly referring to Turkey which is deemed to be terminated.

Macron mentioned that Turkey has been distant with the European Union in the past months and has “overstepped” their actions which pertain to the customs union that cannot be disregarded. Despite this complication, he described the country to be a “vital partner” as he is against the disunity as they all confront problems concerning immigration policy and terrorist threats.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: September 7, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japan yen was traded lower during the beginning of Wednesday session. Yet, the market has bounced off and almost kept the rate as it reached low levels at 108.441. For the week, the trading situation gives a similar outlook after the missile launch by North Korea over Japan.

The USD/JPY pair was seen positioning at 108.724 and declined by 0.078 or -0.07% at 10.21 GMT. The USD/JPY pair closed the session at 0.884 down by -0.81% on Tuesday.

The Forex pair dropped with the current tension with North Korea as well as the rhetorics from Fed speakers. Traders are getting anxious prior to the monetary policy decision of the European Central Bank on Thursday.

Investors keep on reacting to the happenings in the North Korea and the price movement of the safe haven assets. Moreover, the stock market compellingly suggests that traders are concerned with the minimal progress towards the lowering the threat of a nuclear war.

Traders have been anxious with the issue on North Korea especially since the next nuclear test will happen on Sunday. Across the globe, this act was being contradicted as the price movement in the stock market where more investors are being disappointed since there is lack of progress in controlling the situation.

The USD/JPY pair will most likely continue trading with the influence of the U.S. Treasury yields and opinion of investors. The price action of the U.S. Treasury yields which is supported by the economic data and Fed speakers. Reactions of investors are influenced by the geopolitical events about North Korea.

Some minor U.S. data such as Trade Balance, Final Services PMI and the Fed Beige Book and the major report on the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released on Wednesday. The anticipated figure will be 55.8 and increased from 53.9.

The whole report may not be that relevant and move the pair. Also, the investors will center its attention on North Korea since this is unpredictable. Fears of uncertainty are reflected for the first time with investors who are taking off setting positions in the stock a market and place the money in safe haven assets. Traders should monitor for another stock sell-off for today.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 6, 2017

The British pound soared to 1.30 and labeled as the strongest currency for the day during Tuesday session. Currently, it moves to the highs of the range in the 1.3030 region and put a risk for a breakout. It seems to be not performing well in the past whole week but this was supported by the expected data from the U.K. and the weakened dollar which has assisted the recovery of the GBP/USD pair.

The center of attention has been the U.S. dollar majority of the day since the U.S. market opened after the long weekend as well as rhetorics from various speakers of the Federal Reserve. The market anticipates what will happen to the U.S. economy and when will be the next rate hike. It seems that they do not really think about it. It is mainly dovish on both issues but this did not appeal to investors which resulted in another round of selling the greenback.

In turn, this has supported the GBP/USD pair to ascend towards 1.3000 level and the 1.3030 is now an important resistance region. If it successfully breaks through the said region in a clean manner, the pair is anticipated to move towards 1.3250 region for short term. Yet, there is a possibility for this to happen when the dollar further weakened.

There is no major economic news from the U.K. for this day. The dollar will once again be the center of attention and if the market can recover for short-term. It seems that the dollar index is at a crucial stage where it could decline or bounce up from this point. It is ideal for traders to be careful and determine its next move whether it will go down or up prior to placing orders.

Greenbacks Weakened as Japanese Yen Strengthened

On Tuesday, the American dollar declined against its major counterparts as tensions arise brought by the North Korea and the reluctance of the Fed Reserve to approach US investors upon returning to the market from the Labor Day holiday.

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index measures the performance of the greenbacks versus its other major six rivals, as it slid lower at 0.3% to 92.318. While, the WSJ Dollar Index gauges the dollar’s position within the larger basket of currencies, showing a downward move by 0.4% to 85.29.
Almost of the U.S. markets were not in operation last Monday due to Labor Day.

The greens further gained losses against the safe haven currencies including the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc on Monday, after the most recent nuclear test made by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

The USD was able to broke the 109 handle against the yen held during the earlier session, as it weakened to ¥108.73 which is lower from ¥109.73 on Monday.

The city of Pyongyang is predicted to prepare another missile launch sooner or later, that is possible as early as Sept. 9 during the celebration of the region’s National Foundation Day in 1948.

Moreover, the U.S. Dollar fell to 0.9551 against the Swiss franc on the back of a robust trading session and reached the 0.9583 level on Monday.

Private Sector Positive Growth Pushes Inflation Higher

The month of August has been overall positive for the service sector in Germany. Higher prices uplifted the overall growth of the private sector, according to the survey on Tuesday, The solid upsurge in Europe signals that this the pace will continue. The final composite of the Markit’s PMI that monitors both the manufacturing and services sector which represent more than two-thirds of the whole economy.

The statistics showed an increase to 55.8 from a ten-month low of 54.7 in July. The reading was above the 50 line that divides growth from the contraction which resulted better than the initial estimate of 55.7 as published last month. The upsurge was driven by the manufacturing sector at a fastest rate since April that lead to a sudden spurt in output with new orders and export businesses.

The business activity was up as it reached a two-month high of 53.5 in August with the entry of more orders in a fast pace. Hiring new employees continued although the job creation has become sluggish in more than a year.

On the other hand, the acceleration has also pushed up inflation which has put more pressure on prices that beset the German service providers. The rate of price inflation rose reaching a five-month high while the fees charged by service providers also increase at a quicker rate since March. Hence, the growth forecast of IHS MArket was set to 2.3 for this year and 2.1 percent for the next year.

Economic Upturn of Euro Benefited the British Manufacturers

Reports in the British factories shows huge volume of book orders which are triggered by the sluggish pound after the Brexit referendum plus the robust economy of the euro zone.

According to the survey on business expectations for Q3 in 2017, shows an increase of 34% in output among companies polled by business advisory firms, BDO and EEF which are the manufacturers' body. It presented an expansion from 26% in the past three months.

Based on the report, order books further reached record levels due to higher demand levels from overseas. As 47% of the companies deemed that EU exports grew during the third quarter compared in 2016. Meanwhile, the demand from Asia and the United States also helps negate the relative weaknesses in the UK brought by Brexit.

Moreover, the decline in the pound’s value led to a surge in various economic prices since the EU exit raised costs for imports. This also helped UK products to be more competitive in foreign lands.

It’s been awhile before the exporters gained the benefits. As shown in the report, the demand bolstered by the expansion of economic growth in Europe which weakened the economic performance of UK during the financial disaster until this year.

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Primarily, the sterling moved sideways on Monday, however, drove downwards to find some support and in order to make a rebound. The United States is currently in a holiday to celebrate the Labor Day, hence, the trading volume will be heightened during the European session.

Moreover, the market is having some conflicting pressure while players lack confidence about the possible increase of the Fed interest rates for this year. However, there are various concerns regarding the British exit from the European Union.

It is possible that the market will continue its choppiness which suggests to better trade in small positions. We should search for some pullback while the market should push lower touching the 1.2850 in the longer term. The 1.30 region appeared to be really resistive but when the 1.3050 area will be broken, buyers would likely take the driver’s seat once again.

It is expected that the market will keep on having some noise, but there is also a possibility that the market is seeking for clarity which is hard to look for because of the increasing noise in the markets.

It should be noted that the liquidity will not raise until the following week, considering that majority of the traders are not present due to the holiday.

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