I think we need a feature that tells members exactly how many others are ignoring them.
Why? You can't do that in real life. How does it affect you, really? I disagree. If someone is giving a speech in real life, it’s quite obvious if people are paying attention or ignoring them. Politicians understand this. There are some serious trolls on certain threads that it might prove helpful if they knew how ignored they were from the get-go. We have a numerical merit system. Why not a numerical ignore system? |
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I think we need a feature that tells members exactly how many others are ignoring them.
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Of course, we've seen times before where the deep pocket whales begin the next bull run with a bang, aka a massive dump/short and stop loss hunt to liquidate all the of the leveraged longs first. If the whales accumulate for a long sideways period, this would give them the ammo they need. So I imagine the next bull run trigger will start with something like that. It could take us spiking down briefly to the $5K range in a flash, before heading back up.
Running stops seems to be fundamentally about acquiring product and not so much about effecting the price. Do whales need the coins that are on offer on the exchanges? It seems to me that a whale would interact with an exchange for the purpose of effecting the price more than the purpose of accumulating/liquidating his position. If he were either accumulating or liquidating he would want to do either of those things OTC because if he were accumulating he wouldn't want to drive the price up and if he were liquidating he wouldn't want to drive the price down. So he makes changes to his position OTC but perhaps he tries to use a small portion of his stash to manipulate the price down before making an OTC purchase and vice a verca before making an OTC sale. I'm not really trying to argue against you here. I'm mostly just interested in how you will respond to these thoughts. I'd think a whale might want run stops to drive down the market price, just to affect the OTC price. And he'd make some side money on shorts, of course. In many cases the market manipulators may be the OTC brokers themselves when they realize they have a whale at the end of their harpoon. Whale gets an OTC quote to sell, broker blows his load to drive market price down, whale executes, broker buys back in driving price up again when the next whale comes to buy, profits on his 1-3% margin. Bart pattern complete. The 6 Costliest Mistakes People Make When Trading Bitcoin OTC |
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sounds like you're talking about mainstream (late) investors. hence "near the top of the s-curve." i'm not disagreeing with what you're generally saying, it's just not what people usually mean by smart money, at least in crypto: https://www.reddit.com/r/Silverbugs/comments/4q5p6i/the_market_cycle_smart_money_vs_dumb_money/when every tom, dick and harry working at wal mart is accessing bitcoin instruments through their retirement fund, i imagine we're officially in the "dumb money" stage. what i was actually getting at was the trader's perspective. i've been trading this market for years, and let me tell you: 4-5 years ago there was so much money on the table. the days of easy money are long over in this market (outside of shitcoin pump and dump riding).....bitcoin trades much like gold and other chop fests now because the smart money arrived years ago IMO. No, I'm not talking about late investors, but innovators or early adopters at best. Bitcoin is not even at 1% global adoption. The Internet is still only at 50% adoption! We've still got a lot of room to run in BOTH. All I’m saying is IMO timing matters if a shitcoin implosion were to happen. If shitcoins implode on the current adoption on-ramp (<1-2%), they might pull Bitcoin down with them. If they implode nearer the steep bend in adoption (2-5%), when regulators and institutions start paving the way for dumb money to at least feel smarter about investing in Bitcoin, then maybe it won't matter so much.   From your valuation curve, I really don't believe we've left the smart money phase yet. We're just barely approaching the take-off point. Institutional investors have hardly if even arrived. The public and media are still dumb AF when it comes to crypto. We're no where near McAfee's eat-a-dick valuation! Bitcoin is where the Internet was in 1993 IMO. These last few bubbles we've experienced are just parasitic fractal blips on the back of the monster "Paradigm" bubble to come. But, sure, smart money can be thought of as a conduit for dumb money, if you want to look at it that way. Smart money has always been about making even more money from the sheeples. Maybe I should have called it Big Money. Semantics. $350B total market cap is nothing compared to the potential. A drop in the bucket. There is still plenty of easy money to be made. Saying easy money is over in crypto is like saying Internet commerce reached its full potential in 2000, a full 10 years after the world's first web browser emerged. Big money knows this and they are coming. Much like the Internet, the cryptocurrency success case will be decades in the making. We haven't even reached one decade yet. what made you think lightning and rootstock are the end-all-be-all of crypto? if anything, lightning makes inter-protocol use cases more interesting.
and remember, sidechains are just altcoins that can interact with bitcoin. they're shitcoins, not bitcoins. they have different security/trust models, they can have different supply/demand models than bitcoin and they can certainly carry different value. interoperability with bitcoin is good for shitcoins---not the other way around. in any case, i assume (based on the incentives involved) that shitcoins will continue integrating features far faster than bitcoin will. that's actually good for bitcoin. bitcoin is our rock, and we don't want it integrating every gimmick for no good reason.
bitcoin moves slow, and i think that's actually what the market likes.
and do you really believe that consensus forks are obsolete in bitcoin? what was the point of bip9 and bip8 then? fixing tx malleability in future versions doesn't address everything under the sun by any means. unless you think lightning is somehow a catch all for all use cases imaginable?
further, there are features/mechanisms that would be highly controversial to integrate to bitcoin, whether by their nature or because they'd require hard forks---replacing POW with less energy-intensive means, removing the public blockchain, integrating full on-chain privacy, etc. there would always be a market for crypto that integrates things that simply won't be ported to bitcoin.
I completely agree, Bitcoin is our rock and slow consensus is just dandy. I highly doubt segwit/lighting/rootstock/etc will be the be-all-end-all of crypto, but I do think they will play an early role in propelling BTC along the adoption curve away from the cloud and stink of shitcoins. Shitcoins can integrate all the interoperability and bells and whistles they want, but it won't make much difference to the world at large until crypto can first prove to the market and regulators they aren't all just bubbles and scams. I still think BTC has the best chance to do this if we can get the timing and technology right. It's too bad shitcoin developers don't realize how much their success truly depends on Bitcoin succeeding first. They are muddying the waters at a critical time in Bitcoin's evolution for their own personal gain and greed. There is plenty of time and room to debate the myriad of controversial features AFTER the first true success case of regulation, adoption and utility. I just worry shitcoins will ruin it for all, or at least set us back a decade, much like Timothy Leary set us back decades in psychedelic research and the war on drugs for being just plain stupid. You aren't offering any new perspective in your commentary; merely dissecting and counterpointing mine. What is your point on topic?
uh, you made some claims (some baseless, others unclear) that i either disagreed with or wanted clarity on. so i posted a reply. this is a forum BTW. now i need to provide you a thesis? lol? Exactly, this is a forum. I’m here to learn from others and test out my own ideas; I’m not here to be contentious. You obviously have a deeper knowledge base and have given me more to think about, so thank you, but I still have no idea what impact you think a shitcoin implosion might have on Bitcoin, despite all your commentary. Your counterpoints might have a lot more impact if you offered a perspective to hang them on. Obviously, you don’t owe me anything but maybe you owe it to yourself to appear more cogent.  |
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But smart money is on the verge of moving in, from wall street to institutional, not to mention the hundreds of hedge funds and other OTC whales already hemming and hawing in cryptospace. ah, the proverbial "smart money." what exactly do people mean by this? hedge funds have been here since at least early-mid 2014. that's when HFT algos started dominating, particularly in the chinese futures markets. lots of former goldman, etc traders brought their bot game to the markets. from 2015 on, this market is highly algo driven as a result. traditional institutions and fund managers create spinoffs for this sort of thing---they don't expose blue chip balance sheets to unregulated markets. hedge funds and VC capital has been with us for years, though. i'm not sure what people are expecting---GS and JPmorgan to list actual spot BTC on their balance sheets? that's a meaningless metric, and it'll probably happen near the top of the s-curve. "Smart Money" institutions with actual fiduciary responsibilities are expecting regulated, insured, custodial markets with mitigated risk. That is the whole point. They want to see Bitcoin fully legitimized as an asset class rather than operating in the shadows. They want to be assured that another Mt Gox or Bitfinex or take your pick of exchange hacks, scams, or fraud won't happen again. And if it does happen, they want to know Lloyd's of London has got their back. Hedge funds and private equity are one thing, but mutual funds, pensions, ETFs, index funds, etc are a whole other ball game with a much lower bar for risk, leverage, and derivative exposure. Hedge funds are only available to accredited investors with high net worth (+$1M). They are far more speculative, leveraged, and managed by a different set of rules and regulations. How many people do you know are actually invested in hedge funds? How many invested in mutual funds? Practically everyone with a workplace sponsored retirement plan is invested in mutual funds. True adoption will not occur until regulation allows smart money the opportunity for everyone to get involved, easily. Not just speculative high rollers or tech savvy trendsetters. A lot might also depend on the timing of layer 2/layer 3 protocols; the lightning network and rootstock smart contracts and all that, incorporating a lot of the functionality shitcoins currently tout as BTC side chains/protocols. fortunately for shitcoins, bitcoin consensus moves at a snail's pace. if bitcoin could incorporate the plethora of shitcoin features (or would want to, in the case of alternative consensus modes, sharding, etc) within multiple decades, i would be very surprised. With Segwit in place, what more do Lightning Labs and Rootstock need from Bitcoin consensus? Layer 2/Layer 3 operate independently at their own pace. This is all assuming smart money really is smart enough to recognize BTC as the one true coin. Which I think, for the most part, they are.
These are the same guys who've been setting up BTC futures and pushing for ETFs all along. who? Established Regulated Exchanges, Brokerages, & Banks (ICE, NYSE, Nasdaq, Fidelity, Monex, Cboe, CME, JPM, GS, etc) FinTech (Gemini, Circle, Square, Coinbase, Revolut, BitGo, etc) Fiduciaries (Ameriprise, Mutual Funds, Index Funds, etc) Endowments & Pensions (Harvard, Stanford, Yale, non-profits, NGOs, Corporate, Government, etc) Custodials (Xapo, Coinbase, BitGo, ItBit, Nomura) OTC (Cumberland, ItBit, Genesis, etc) Even a tiny percent currently invested in commodities (gold, oil, potash) redirected towards Bitcoin would have a HUGE impact on price. You aren't offering any new perspective in your commentary; merely dissecting and counterpointing mine. What is your point on topic? |
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What could be another catalyst for a new bull-run? Of course there are possibilities like the approval
of a Bitcoin ETF (seems unlikely for now) or the upcoming block reward halving (is still more than 2 years
away) or the Lightning Network. Nevertheless, it still looks like a classic blow-off top, which could
be the indication of yet another prolonged bear market.
I think this is an excellent question that merits its own thread for discussion (without the taint of conspiracy theories). https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4398150.0 |
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Redirecting from another thread, I thought this a worthy topic for discussion all on its own: What could be another catalyst for a new bull-run? Of course there are possibilities like the approval
of a Bitcoin ETF (seems unlikely for now) or the upcoming block reward halving (is still more than 2 years
away) or the Lightning Network. Nevertheless, it still looks like a classic blow-off top, which could
be the indication of yet another prolonged bear market.
The catalyst may very well be random but without key fundamentals in place, the next bull-run may well fizzle out. What derailed the last bull run and how has Bitcoin's anti-fragile immune system responded?I think a series of fundamental factors contributed: 1) Transaction fees and network inefficienciesSegwit adoption (currenty ~40%) and batched transactions have basically "cured" this issue for the time being. Fees are now the lowest in 7 years. The Lightning Network has since gone mainnet beta with ~2000 nodes, likely curing peak performance issues in the foreseeable future, assuming all the bugs are ironed out and adoption continues to take root. 2) BCash/Coinbase Surprise Insider AttackThis probably acted more as a sell-off catalyst at the time, but Coinbase has since lost a lot of credibility for how they handled the BCash listing. Competition among exchanges may make this issue irrelevant going forward. BCash remains a threat but the cryptocommunity seems more woke than ever over the scuminess behind Ver, Wu, and Wright. The fundamental issue concerning block size seems "cured" by #1. ASICBoost/Segwit compatibility remains an issue among miners, but with Segwit adoption and increasing competition in the ASIC industry, this issue will likely fade. 3) Alt/ICO hype/frenzy/scamsRelated to #2, Alts and ICOs have definitely muddied the waters. Oldtimers see through the hype but many newcomers are still getting burned. Wall St and Institutional buyers remain unfazed and largely unexposed for the most part. They seem to have their eye on the BTC ball for the time being. The SEC and further regulation may help to clear the stink, but this a long process, separating the wheat from the chaff. Most importantly, however, is the rise and promulgation of BTC layer 2/layer 3/sidechain technologies which may very well incorporate all of the hyped features ALTs are promising, making them less and less relevant over time. This includes the offchain transactions (Lightning), smart contracts (Rootstock), atomic swaps and many others I'm probably not aware of. If we look at the dot com boom as an example, there were a lot of hyped, crap companies that completely disappeared once it became clear that Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google were the clear leaders in Internet adoption. All of these companies absorbed clear winners from the pack, like an amoeba sucking down lunch. And then there were 5. I see and hope for the same thing happening with Alts throwing their lot in with Bitcoin over time. 4) Regulatory uncertaintyThis issue is much reviled by many, much appreciated by others, and much needed for Bitcoin to progress as a legitimate asset class. Clear regulatory governance will clear the landing pad for takeoff. China, the US, and Korea are the most anticipated, and all three seem to be embracing Bitcoin going forward, while at the same time trying to limit their citizens exposure to ICO scams. Russia is a mess, with Putin and his oligarchs basically dictating "Do as I say, not as I do." They will try to hoard as much Bitcoin for themselves as possible before allowing any of the common populace to tread on their territory. It will continue to be ugly in dictatorships such as these. With the US DOJ investigating market manipulation and the SEC being hammered to approve ETFs and the IRS being pressured to provide clear guidance, it is only a matter of time that regulatory measures will take place. In the short term, Bitcoin may take a hit, as the cleansing fires purge the filth. But I think Bitcoin especially will rise from the inferno. Who can argue with immaculate conception? It worked for Jesus. Perhaps Satoshi was his second coming. Blasphemy, pure blasphemy, but hey. 5) Futures MarketsFutures opened the door for shorts. In the short term (haha, punny), futures appear to have done great harm via manipulation and naysayers. But in the long term, futures may provide a much needed stabilization effect to allow BTC to become more than just a store of value, but an actual predictable stable currency. It ain't working now, but then again, how much of an influence is actual vs perceived? Hard to say. But more and more derivatives are on the way, until custody issues relieve some of pressure. Futures markets may also grease the pipe for an eventual ETF. 6) CustodyThe Winklvii et al. push harded for an ETF during the last bull run. And the SEC pushed back harder. The primary concern? Custody. Prove to us you can keep Bitcoin safe. Prove to us another Mt Gox won't happen. At the time, there really was no meaningful solution. That is changing now, and fast. Dozens of custody services are popping up and the world's established brokerages and exchanges are getting in on the game. Custody issues are fast falling by the wayside and may even negate the need for hardware wallets once proven. This opens the door wide open not only for ETFs but for trusted institutional investment especially. So in summary, I think a lot of these issues are well on their way to being ameliorated in the 1-2 year time frame. As markets and speculation are predictive, a bull run may likely precede all of these fundamentals before being completely resolved. Only this time, there are a lot more eyes on the game. I don't think there is any doubt of the potential of Bitcoin anymore, from Wall St to governments and world leaders to financial institutions. At some point the naysayers and those who have more to lose than gain with Bitcoin's rise will not be able to suppress the beast any longer. And they will throw their lot in with the rest of us. The next bull run will probably be the result of a perfect storm of fundamentals coming together and then set off by some random spark. I don't think the halving alone can provide the spark without these fundamentals in place first. I do think it will precede an ETF, though, because of all the stars that have to line up to make an ETF possible in the first place. tl;dr: Fundamental issues matter and are largely being resolved. The BTC prize is too big to ignore. Any random spark can be the catalyst. Markets are predictive and the next bull run may happen well before the halving or an ETF are established. |
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Life=One Giant Online Casino
Fundamental analysis and past performance indicate a high probability Life on Earth will continue to persist in one form or another for a while longer, but one sneaky asteroid and poof! There goes our species.
One might say risk is an inherent property of Life.
Now Death, on the other hand, Death is pretty risk-free.
So far as we know...
Make sure your loved ones have access to your stash, or poof! There goes that investment.
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A lot might depend on timing. Small time retail investors on unregulated exchanges dominate market liquidity at the moment, many of whom are late-comers distracted by the cloud of shitcoins gathered around honey-badger's napping bunghole.  hippo honey: how ICOs are bornBut smart money is on the verge of moving in, from wall street to institutional, not to mention the hundreds of hedge funds and other OTC whales already hemming and hawing in cryptospace. Once regulated exchanges start offering better BTC custody solutions for these big boys, paving the way for ETFs and the like, retail investors (along with the slew of unregulated exchanges) might start to become irrelevant, much like they already are with the stock markets. If the SEC and other global regulators start spraying ICOcide before smart money moves in, BTC could be at real risk, even halting or at least delaying progress in the smart money space. But if smart money moves into BTC sooner, as expected by the end of this year and into next, before the SEC is able to take much action against ICOs and their ilk, BTC might already be immune by that point. A lot might also depend on the timing of layer 2/layer 3 protocols; the lightning network and rootstock smart contracts and all that, incorporating a lot of the functionality shitcoins currently tout as BTC side chains/protocols. This is all assuming smart money really is smart enough to recognize BTC as the one true coin. Which I think, for the most part, they are. These are the same guys who've been setting up BTC futures and pushing for ETFs all along. There's not a single shitcoin anywhere near attaining a futures market so far as I know. Best the shitcoins can hope for is being included in an overall crypto index fund, like Coinbase is offering. ps. check out this mesmerizing but also sickening animated crypto market evolution, too large to post in its entirety here...  https://t.me/CryptoAquariumChannel/1585 |
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Me likes the way this guy thinks...  Here’s to not burning in hell... |
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Remember the good ol' days when this was the place to find out wtf was happening with the price?  |
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Bears aren't trying very hard. Can't even call this a proper triple bottom with the price still more than $1300 above first spike and $840 above second spike. Even the volume is pathetic compared to the last and especially first spike down. Baseline trend still climbing.  |
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For every one of these idiots selling, someone is buying. At higher and higher lows. Buy the Fucking Dip  |
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The Wall Observer has a topic?
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For every one of these idiots selling, someone is buying. At higher and higher lows. Buy the Fucking Dip |
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If you use data from 4 yeas ago to create the pattern it's always going to be bullish, there is no way to have a graph matching the bearish ones in that image. I just hope we won't be touching 6000 again,this it's getting annoying. But despite those pattern play, I will first start to get bullish again when we break above $12k or see that golden cross happen.Anything else is not strong enough evidence for me that the bulls have taken over.
Breaking 10 000 and staying for a while seems now pretty bullish to me And as always BTC doesn't care about TA and patterns, I'm willing to bet the next month will again prove the price is as chaotic as it can be. 4 years? That's just one year! The rocket cannot refuel without touching earth again. Even $6000 still feels too expensive for latecomers. Anyone who got involved 1 year to 6 mos ago, they are still up and probably reluctant to buy moar. At some point, the price will hit a magic number where old timers and newcomers alike feel compelled to buy again. This might require bouncing off a lower support a few times or consolidating sideways. Bargain basement prices along with positive fundamental analysis is the rocket fuel we are looking for. |
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I was just informed by Mr. Buffett that it's rat poison on a stick.
Then Charlie Minger chimed in with, "That's not a stick, it's a baby bone."
Do you suppose these are the rats Buffet was referring to?  |
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