Haha, thank you for your great story and for sharing with us You are absolutely correct! Apparently as some people before were wrongly assuming that nobody would show off with X amount of crypto... some people actually do, as expected

You touched upon a great point "most of the people want to profit on a USDT basis and not BTC" (my point not relevant here, but we had a nice discussion with the Community about if Bitcoin is for Fake Rich, and you just gave an additional prove to that ).

Yes arbitrage is great in fact, as by definition it's "risk-free return", but usually it turns out to be practically not possible to implement, or the profit is so small that it becomes pointless. But yes, you had great points!

And actually about arbitrage trading we will have one innovative financial product for that in 2021, which nobody ever had (not self-promotion).

Here's one example about how that would work in real life with fixed-income as underlying:

Assume that you issue TVS securities backed by APPLE INC. DL-NOTES 2013(13/23) WKN A1HKKX | ISIN US037833AK68 as underlying, that were issued on 07/05/2013, have a maturity on 03/05/2023, and pay a coupon of 2.4% on semi-annual basis. For the purpose of analysis daily performance for the period of 07/05/2013-12/12/2018 was used.

It is assumed that five Tranched Value Securities (TVS) were issued with APPLE INC. DL-NOTES 2013(13/23) WKN A1HKKX | ISIN US037833AK68 as underlying on 07/05/2013 when the opening price was US$ 99.19 for each US$ 100.00 of security’s face value, with the following characteristics:

- APPLE INC. DL-NOTES 2013(13/23) WKN A1HKKX [ISIN US037833AK68] is underlying asset with opening price of $99.19 on 07/05/2013, which serves as price index for the below TVSs

- AAPL TVS Senior [AAPLTVS-A] has VVS 30% of and FVS of $29.76 on 07/05/2013
- AAPL TVS Subordinated [AAPLTVS-B] has VVS 25% of and FVS of $24.80 on 07/05/2013
- AAPL TVS Junior [AAPLTVS-C] has VVS 20% of and FVS of $19.84 on 07/05/2013
- AAPL TVS Mezzanine [AAPLTVS-D] has VVS 15% of and FVS of $14.88 on 07/05/2013
- AAPL TVS Equity [AAPLTVS-E] has VVS of 10% and FVS of $9.92 on 07/05/2013

Each subsequent TVS is more junior to the higher-ranked one, implying it can claim any value only if the more senior TVS was satisfied.

Based on the above, the following results can be obtained illustrating the performance of Tranched Value Securities as compared to underlying asset performance (ISIN US037833AK68):







As you can see from above data, the performance of TVS backed by the same ISIN US037833AK68 has been significantly transformed, in some cases making junior value tranches of bond perform in the similar manner as if it was an equity instrument.

Crypto Will Live Forever... Until It Die

Jokes aside, I believe crypto will not live forever in the current form. Bitcoin (as we know it now) will be gone once quantum computers become a daily reality for us as a regular smartphone in the pocket. However, the concept and idea, and potential implications are really great, therefore crypto will be evolving to some other form (quantum-protected crypto (yes, I know there are already some), state-run crypto, corporate-run crypto, or something else).

Generally I do agree with your opinion, but as you noted also - "Bitcoin is for being a legitimate rich man because of profits you could have in the long run", thus it's an "accessible version" of investment which people hope will make them rich, while Bill Gates, Rothschild family, etc. would be buying out land, gold, corporations, diamond mines, real estate, which would make them even richer, while we as regular people can't do same, but are "wanna be" those cool guys, right?

I really beg you and anyone who believes in "VIP signals":

STOP DOING THAT! YOU WILL LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY!!! IF YOU STILL DIDN'T LOSE YOUR MONEY WITH SIGNALS - THAT'S DUE TO LUCK AND NOTHING MORE! EVENTUALLY YOU WILL LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY WITH SIGNALS!

I believe some of the commenters above said similar thing, while others suggested some ideas about signals, but seriously whoever reads this - don't get into these things. Not because I did got, but I saw plenty of people who did, and I have professional financial education, and professional financial experience. So I do know what I am talking about.

That's scam, fake, sometimes luck, and nothing more! You have more chances winning in trading by randomly pressing Buy/Sell buttons at any moment in time. Success will be the same or even better!

Learn the following:

PEOPLE WHO KNOW HOW TO MANAGE MONEY, THEY WORK IN HEDGE FUNDS AND MANAGE BILLIONS, AND NEVER SELL ANY F*CKING SIGNALS. PEOPLE WHO CAN'T MAKE MONEY IN TRADING, THEY SELL SIGNALS, COURSES, LESSONS, TRADING BOTS, MEMBERSHIPS, RESEARCHES, ALERTS!

You are very correct, but I believe we are back to the initial point where I mentioned that knowledge can be fairly simply learned. And then there will be psychological biases, which can be eliminated via hedging or algo-trading.




Don't you think it can be also about the instruments which they use? I believe that might play the greatest role in the end.




You touched upon a great point about tools & tech analysis I wanted someone to bring it up, so I could point out that it's not the case With tech analysis it's known that it doesn't work at all (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis). But for the tools - that's my favourite point. I believe now as we live in the end of 2020, so many people are falsify believing that technical tools can help to profit from trading... however, my opinion is that it's false due to the currently overhyped "Tech" in every aspect... FinTech, MedTech, EdTech, AdTech, FoodTech, AgroTech, "You Name It"Tech... - just a "Tech" hysteria... But the financial elites and the top traders and investors are able to profit where you, me, and common people like us cannot profit, because they have better Financial Tools, not the Technological Tools. If I give you access to Bloomberg Terminal - you still will lose money if you trade the way you did before, and the things you used to trade. But on the contrary I can give you free Excel package, and allow trading in equity swaps, total return swaps, structured products, infrastructure assets, top VC deals, and you will see how much your returns will improve from there on

Wow, this is amazing point as well! I missed this direction though and meant another point as discussed earlier, but your point perfectly makes sense too.

You are pretty correct in the few first points, but you are not really correct by saying that "hating on everyone won't do you good". Nobody here hates anyone, and not sure from which sentences you drawn such conclusions While you certainly can just simply like some piece of tech/etc., there are very few out there that actually do (what so good iPhone 12 will do for you as compared to iPhone X as a regular user, for example?). Most people either understand what they do by getting the status symbols, or don't even understand.

And your comment about "bitcoin is there to help these people to gain profits" I think might be the most obvious sign of misunderstanding of the basic and core concept of Bitcoin as was stated by other members multiple times, whom I fully agree with. However, your perception of BTC as "to get profits" just proves my point, fortunately or unfortunately.


Yes, then let's talk about everything is made of strings as a part of string theory? Bitcoin is made of fundamental strings, us, cars, apartments, Earth, air - we are just a massive soup of strings if you wanna go that way of thinking, but please try to stay clear in your direction of thoughts, and let's not mess things up as if after LSD. Don't compare digitally recorded and created by human codes (new Android app, web-page, Bitcoin, etc.) with the codes of nature / God / luck / whatever you believe in (DNA, physical laws, mathematical principles, etc.).

And for the rest of your comment I am afraid you are again just proving the correctness of my point about Bitcoin for "Fake Rich" / "Wanna be Rich" as you don't see other hope but to play around and purchase for $24,000 "digitally recorded and created by human code". I assume you do purchase altcoins as well with the same motivation as you stated above? In any case, unfortunately, I don't know the reason but you obviously show that it's you unreasonably started hating me for simply asking people to share their opinion and discuss? Thus I believe we might not have a constructive dialogue, at least about this particular subject.

But how would you know when you are reasonably patient, and when you are just falsely keeping the loosing position would you would better off sell quickly and invest elsewhere?


That's why the first statistic is that "100% of people start trading with the hope of getting rich"




Isn't knowledge when to exit the market is the part of skill / knowledge? While in regard to whales, in the earlier comments here I provided a link to Japanese trader who started same with us but soon ended up trading millions of dollars portfolio - thus from "non-whale" to "top-whale" and that was for stocks... there the "whale" categorization is more strict as opposed to crypto where anyone with $200-500k can be considered as "baby whale".




After checking the links I believe they didn't mention anything what wasn't mentioned by the community members in the current thread - psychology, exit points, systems, strategy, patience, etc. Please correct me if I missed something?




Nope, it refers to traders overall - both institutional and retail. In fact institutional traders also don't earn that crazy lot of mony as commonly believed. Very few of them do in fact - that's survival bias - you know only the success cases. And the psychology element is easily eliminated with algo-trading (I don't mean those "make money easily FOREX/crypto-bots", but professional hedge fund algorythms).





But knowledge can be learned, and "sticking to your trading strategy" element can be automated. In these days, it doesn't take too much knowledge to develop algo-trading bot based on the parameters you want to use - there are solutions even for people with 0 programming experience.




You mentioned great point, but the conclusion is not the same with what I would make Those people who transform their trading knowledge into Advisor EA, bots, courses, signals, groups, etc. - they don't earn from trading though... they earn from those fees people pay them to access these things. That's a common thing actually called "if you cannot earn money with making own business, teach others how to make business" - same with trading, investing, etc. But very few people understand that and thats why keep paying for those people, who call themselves traders and do earn money, but actually their profit source is from what they sell, not from what they trade.




Why people keep asking me for research papers and sources after I provided them several times before in the same thread? But okay, here it is again for everyone's reference:


And I believe you made a great point which nobody made before about "they see wall street type of people getting very rich and they want to do the same but they forget that those people deal in billions and they make very low sums of profit but do it for decades instead of few months". That's very very true!




Well that's why trading and investment are different by definition But nope, the research papers which I quoted above do analyze long-term traders as well. But again - traders, not investors. There's a joke actually "every failed trade becomes long term investment"




Oh, you forget the biggest part of traders - people who need to hedge their risks. That's especially the majority in derivatives and in capital markets (not in crypto yet, I believe). They don't trade for profit, but just to get rid of risks and to lock in desired prices / interest rates / etc. they want to lock in, and they don't intend to make any profit (but they do occasionally sometimes). But yes, these statistics not about them at all, since it's completely different category of entities engaging in those.





Actually if you check the research papers you will see that too many people believe in this and continue to trade while remaining in negative profitability. Because they think that one day their efforts will pay off. But for some people they never do, and we don't know who will be that unlucky person.




I didn't calculate any single number I mentioned here I took them all from research papers which you can see above - those people who conducted their research explain in great details who, how, and when they calculated those stats. And I assumed since it's trading discussion section, here should be a lot of traders, both successful and unsuccessful, and someone could share their useful experiences. Was I wrong?

And as for the fees, be believe that if we didn't create anything new, or didn't make something significant (like BTC/ETH/cryoto OTC), or if it's already available in the market - it would be unethical to charge people for that. Furthermore, with this - it's ultimately your own money which you trade, therefore why would we charge you for using your own money?

However, for innovative products, yes there is a fee, as its not available anywhere else. But we do provide significant benefits to the first people who supported us and who believed in us.

You can be sure that with our offerings and patent that we are obtaining, even the top10 current crypto-exchanges will seam too small in the future compared to us. Because what they do is developing ecosystem around crypto-assets (exchange, payments, banking, etc.), but we don't and won't - we are specializing in innovative financial instruments and will be expanding in that vertical which will cover not only crypto-assets, but traditional ones as well. Though, it's not for self-promotion here And thank you for your valuable advise!


I will be happy to and it will be our team's pleasure! But I am not sure how appropriate it is to explain in this tread as other community members might perceive that as aggressive advertisement or spam in irrelevant thread. I would love to invite you to our telegram channel where you can chat with our CEO (in my signature) or to one of our threads where we talk about TVS (in ANN thread and "everything you wanted to know about BTC TVS") - whatever you feel more comfortable with.

I hope for understanding from other BitcoinTalk members, as this was not intended to be self-promotion or marketing thread

Buying anything below $23k might be a valid short-term strategy, but if you want to make sure you really earn good and sustainable return, you better wait for bigger correction (advise from our CEO ) - "buy when there's a blood on the streets" as someone said. Or use innovative financial products which will help you to lock in your own desired price/risk level




Well, I assumed apocalypses if happens will happen pretty quickly. Otherwise if it's gradual and slow - it's crisis and we will have time to prepare for that. And if we expect Bitcoin or other cryptos to be run on a completely other technology in the future, that means we don't expect the "true" and "authentic" Bitcoin which we all currently trade and have to exist. Do you mean we should prepare for the current Bitcoin to die gradually and be replaced by more advanced "improved Bitcoin"?




You really provided a great details and analysis of the possible scenario! Really appreciate that. However, "the single thing" can lift your social class... or at least make your social class appear to be higher than it is. Like if you go with lambo to some high end restaurant (even if you just rented it for 1 hr) will get you new and useful connections who can further uplift your class, as opposed to gong to the same restaurant by taxi or bus. And with post-apocalyptic scenario, as you correctly noted, all tech-things will become useless and not needed, but as there will be some people left who survived they will gradually re-establish social-economic system and they will need some medium of payment (as barter economy will soon prove them again to be inefficient), and BTC unfortunately won't be there top choice, but gold or something else, what is currently controlled by the "true elites". What do you think?




But as other members noted (not even me) that you pay that much for the chance to have that blink number to appear on your screen... If something happens (which we discussed in this thread - many things can happen) you will be left with nothing (which can happen intentionally or unintentionally due to someone specific or due to unforeseen events), and that would literally destroy all that wealth of the ones who believed in this idea, while leaving the "traditional elites" with more wealth and less competitors.




Your last two sentences are very close to my point but this is not exactly what I meant. Yes, I do accept Bitcoin is a great thing and invention, but all I mean is that it's mainly used by people who intent to be "fake rich" (obviously not all as we see from this tread), whether purposely or not, it gives those iPhone/Tesla/AppleWatch owners the second chance to own asset, which is just a number on the screen, and doesn't exist without the tech infrastructure (but gold, stocks and real estate will exist even without tech infrastructure), and a hope to uplift their social class due to their inability to participate in the core "elite" assets and investments.





Wow! I have nothing to add to your point. Very deep, very correct and very to the point. Nobody ever will say that Bill Gates is #2-3 in Forbes because he got 1,000,000 Bitcoins, but only because he got X billions of Dollars. So nobody will say Apple is finally 10,500,000 Bitcoins worth company (for example), but only "it's finally a Trillion Dollars company". That's the end of story where the true power is, despite USD being inflated, overprinted, etc. - when the time comes, the "elites" will replace it with something they need (even if it's Bitcoin), but not anything not that - is not for "real rich", but probably for "fake rich" to play around until the time permits.




True, and due to human nature, people will prefer to have something they can touch, smell, taste, see, rather than just believe in a number on the screen.




Yes, but what we gonna do if gov takes severe anti-crypto measures and cuts off all electricity for every single miner in the world (that's traceable and possible if needed)?





Yes, so isn't that a prove that they used Bitcoin to transit from "wanna be rich" to the "actual rich" simply by selling all Bitcoin and cashing out to fiat? If they would stay in Bitcoin or other crypto - they would become nearly bankrupt when BTC dropped to 4.8k (cuz they do have fiat loans), and would have nothing left to reinvest when BTC corrected recently. So as I said I assume - Bitcoin is a great tool for the "wanna be rich" to uplift in the social class to become "actually rich", but if you wanna be "actual rich", you not gonna stay fully in crypto.




It's not for fake rich, but it allowed "fake rich" or "wanna be rich" to become "actual rich" by cashing out.

With the use of the same IP (and location) Binance and other common exchanges would soften the typical login authentication requirements and checks. However, if you use 2FA, it still would be used even if you use the same computer and if you LOGGED OUT from your account before closing your session. If you didn't log out, someone could do that having remote access to your computer. Moreover, if someone somehow really didn't have remote access to your device, 2FA still can be bypassed (check Google - there's plenty info on that, and on darknet even more).

Despite all above, you still must call police and file a case (even if you didn't have KYC, etc.) Yes, they will be lazy and sloppy but if you push hard - you have chances to win the case, and let them do their job (they get paid for that). In some countries if the amount is big enough (like in China) police cannot help, but only the court. And court can help also actually as with the cases in China (where trading in crypto is illegal, and Bitcoin doesn't have a status of money or asset), courts did help to some people to get back their crypto-funds which got stolen.

That's really horrible story, and in any case you shouldn't get depressed over it - whatever happens is always for the best (even if it seams horrible now) - you will learn lessons and might get better opportunities or meet very useful people who might change your life, because of all these events; you should act and fight for your own money, and never give up!

Thank you very much for your feedback! In fact this is what we think might be the best. However, as we are just rolling out marketing activities, and many people still cannot fully understand the concept of TVS, we are thinking that starting with (3) and then (1) and then finally (2) could be the best? That would provide a lot of benefits to everyone in the market as we wouldn't be charging anything at all for OTC BTC, and in the meantime as people would be using that service which they know quite well, they could learn about TVS as we would be launching and publishing more educational materials. What do you think?




Thank you for your feedback. It is highly appreciated! I believe this might be the best option for us, but we will see what other people think as currently only 2 people here replied. And of course (3) would be for all cryptocurrencies, BTC would just be immediately available, and ETH, LTC, XRP, and others would take maybe 2-3 weeks to implement, since we, unlike most exchanges out there, don't use "white-label" solutions or modifications of "open-source" (if you check most of exchanges you will find out they are using same software developed by few vendors, and all the software loopholes and weaknesses are pretty known in the market, that's why we develop everything in-house from zero and sometimes take a little longer than others to rollout new feature)

You are correct. But as I know, many (or maybe most?) of those "invite-only" groups are also scams to let you pay to join it, and then you just get a spammy or scam content

Maybe I didn't express the target groups correctly. Yes, some project-based groups are good (I didn't check the ones you mentioned, thus I don't know about them specifically). I was referring to groups / channels that do throughout industry analysis, fundamentals analysis or something what you won't see in the typical "signals groups" / "trading groups" / "news channels" / "ICO alerts" / etc.

Thank you very much for your kind comment! We really appreciate that. However, self-promotion is not the only point of current discussions, but rather we really do aim to find out how users in general manage their risks, succeed in the market, what they wish to have available, etc. Because whatever you personally, and anyone from our users wish to have, but doesn't have - we will make sure you will have that available on as.exchange.

And speaking for DCA, yes, as I noted, it is definitely helpful overall, however it won't make a person having great returns overall, nor it will save trader from significant or prolonged price declines. For example if you enter @ 18k, 19k, 20k, 21k, 22k, and then price declines to 4k, 4.5k, etc. The returns can be super negative, and if you used futures or margin account - it will get the entire balance liquidated.

By the way, please note that as far as to this point, we never posted our link, nor we even mentioned the alternative way of price risk management, which we do believe we have, but we don't want to disturb people with those types of "ugly marketing" which you referred too.




Yes, correct, but nobody can ever know when the pump will happen or next dump... Even Ray Dalio who recently finally accepted that Bitcoin could be a good alternative to gold. And even current $24k could be all time low price if you count from this very moment and afterwards price never returns to such levels. Then you could be discussing with your grandkids that you saw price of Bitcoin as low as $24 or you could be discussing that the price was ATH @ $24k and then dropped to $1k and never went up again... nobody knows.




You are reffering here to one strategy used by some of our friends. They indeed made a fortune on such "safe" bets by leveraging a lot and acting on minor market corrections withing the major trend. But still, you don't know if that was a market correction or trend change.

Indeed BTC has less risks compared to altcoins. However on the contrary BTC is super risky compared to traditional assets. About risks and volatility overall on average it's like this: bonds < stocks < commoditiies < alternative assets < Bitcoin < altcoins.

And isn't it contradictory "bitcoin price has a risk but we can avoid that risk by investing an amount that we can afford to loss"? I am afraid it's not avoiding risk, it's simply accepting it, and actually preparing that this risk will destroy your capital.




I don't recommend any strategy actually, since it can be easily automated, and if so - it's already known and in use by someone who can do it better than any of us and faster. I think, as I noted before strategy, skills or experience are not the things which make successful trader/investor, but the financial instruments they can use. As you cannot invest in million things which are accessible to the elites of financial world.




Trading 24/7 is definitely a good thing as it allowed people to react immediately at any time to the new events as opposed to stock markets. And what you refer to about trading anything but top20 cryptos is a valid reason as those pairs have less liquidity, less coverage, thus they have more arbitrage and inefficiency opportunities to be exploited by the ones who are able to do so.

Dear BitcoinTalk community members, we as a team and as a company always prioritise our customers before and above all!

Therefore, we would like to kindly ask all of you, what would you like to see next on as.exchange? We have 3 options available and depending on your preferences, we will launch the selected items first:

1) Tranched Value Securities (TVS) trading backed by ETH and other ERC-20 tokens (currently we support BTC only)
2) Forward contracts trading (as currently you can trade only futures on other exchanges, thus you have no flexibility in that)
3) BTC OTC spot trading (like on LocalBitcoins) with 0% fees

Happy to hear your suggestions, recommendations and thoughts on the above

Here's one example about how that would work in real life with equity as underlying:

Assume that you issue TVS securities backed by General Electric Ordinary Common Stock (NYSE:GE) as underlying. For the purpose of analysis GE monthly performance for the period of 01/01/2007-01/12/2017 was used.

It is assumed that five Tranched Value Securities (TVS) were issued with GE as underlying on 01/01/2007 when the opening price for GE was $37.41, with the following characteristics:


- NYSE:GE [GE] is underlying asset with opening price of $37.41 on 01/01/2007, which serves as price index for the below TVSs

- GE TVS Senior [GETVS-A] has VVS 30% of and FVS of $11.22 on 01/01/2007
- GE TVS Subordinated [GETVS-B] has VVS 25% of and FVS of $9.35 on 01/01/2007
- GE TVS Junior [GETVS-C] has VVS 20% of and FVS of $7.48 on 01/01/2007
- GE TVS Mezzanine [GETVS-D] has VVS 15% of and FVS of $5.61 on 01/01/2007
- GE TVS Equity [GETVS-E] has VVS of 10% and FVS of $3.74 on 01/01/2007

Each subsequent TVS is more junior to the higher-ranked one, implying it can claim any value only if the more senior TVS was satisfied.

Based on the above, the following results can be obtained illustrating the performance of Tranched Value Securities as compared to underlying asset performance (GE):










As you can see from above data, the performance of TVS backed by the same GE has been significantly transformed.