Latest posts of: FairlayBTCPredictions

Bitcoin drops nearly 20% after Bitfinex, but where will it be on September 1?

The price of bitcoin fell sharply yesterday as market reacted to news that Bitfinex, one of the largest digital currency exchanges, had been hacked. But even before that, Bitcoin price was already on decline, and there is a lot of discussion if some insiders knew about Bitfinex hack before the other traders did.

When will Bitfinex resume withdrawals? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/when-will-bitfinex-resume-withdrawals/.

Anyway, last night price was roughly 20% lower than the day’s opening of $607 and 27% below the high of $658 reached on Saturday, when the digital currency began pushing lower. But, what will happen next with Bitcoin price?

As CoinDesk writes, the drop below $600 may also indicate a change from the bullish sentiment that has so far characterized 2016. For example, Joe Lee, founder of leveraged derivatives trading platform Magnr, stated that bitcoin's drop below $600 could indicate that the currency's long-term fundamentals are weak.

Bitcoin price on September 1, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/bitcoin-price-on-september-1-1/.

On the other side, Tim Enneking, chairman of cryptocurrency investment manager EAM, interpreted the recent price decline as evidence of a post-halving fallback, further stating that bitcoin will find support above $500.

Currently, Bitcoin price is at today’s high of $554, after being at today’s low of $524. So, will it go up over $600 once again, or even $650 or higher? Or will it once again go above $550, or even under $500? You surely have your own opinion on this matter, and don’t miss the chance to predict the Bitcoin price on September 1 at Fairlay.

Will Segregated Witness be activated before 2017?

Occupied with some other important topics, we moved our minds a bit away from Segregated Witness, or 'SegWit' for short, but recently it once again started to be part of the trending topics in Bitcoin community.

And it should, as this upgrade to Bitcoin protocol might be the most significant improvement to the protocol ever. It is set to fix transaction malleability, offers an effective block size increase, enables development flexibility and so on.

Segregated Witness to be activated in 2016? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/segregated-witness-to-be-activated-in-2016/.

But, when will SegWit be activated? You have the next steps in SegWit activation process described at Bitcoin Core website, so we surely have few months more before we get miners (at least those representing 95% of hash power) to lock in this soft fork.

At the start of the year, most people in the community thought that it will be activated during the summer, but that didn’t happen, so now you have the end of the year as the time when SegWit activation could happen. So, what do you think?

It looks like Trump could defeat Hillary, but can Republicans also keep the Senate?

We talk for months about following US Elections, but things got even more interesting these days. Especially yesterday when, while Democrats started their National Convention, Political analyst Nate Silver’s latest forecast had Donald Trump with a 15 percentage point-greater chance of beating presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

Next President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/next-president-11/.

But, even if Trump becomes the next President, will Republicans be able to keep the Senate as well? These elections will also be held on November 8, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. Currently, Democrats are expected to have 10 seats up for election, and Republicans are expected to have 24 seats up for election.

However, as of June 7, only 9 Democratic held seats are in contention, as the Democrats have already secured California, with the top two finishers in the California Senate jungle primary both being Democrats. So, Senate race is really tight, though some recent polls showed that Senate Republicans have taken big leads in key battleground states.

Will Republicans keep the Senate? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/will-republicans-keep-the-senate/.

These polls at the same time showed that Donald Trump at the top of the ticket may not be as damaging for congressional candidates as some party leaders feared and complicating Democrats’ hopes of taking back control of the chamber. All in all, it looks like favors are currently going in Republicans’ favor but could that change till November?

What will happen with Ethereum Classic, and what will its price be at the year end?

A project called Ethereum Classic, initially dismissed due to a lack of vocal support, got in the center of attention yesterday as Poloniex, long the largest exchange for ethers (ETH), the digital currency native to the ethereum blockchain, added support for the native token running on the Ethereum Classic blockchain, called classic ether (ETC).

This move by Poloniex has succeeded in invoking a highly politicized debate, given its implications for wider conversations across the blockchain industry. It went so far that Chandler Guo, a well-known and respected figure in the Chinese digital currency community even stated that he, assisted by other miners, will 51% attack Ethereum Classic as soon as possible.

ETC vs ETH: Value of Ethereum Classic at year end, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/etc-vs-eth-value-of-ethereum-classic-at-year-end-1/.

So, what will happen now and will Ethereum Classic survive? As for Guo, this wouldn’t be the first time an altcoin has been 51% attacked, and with this there are chances that it could cease to exist. Thus, in order to survive, Ethereum Classic needs to provide liquidity for the network’s new cryptocurrency.

On the other side, after Poloniex, Bitfinex representatives confirmed that the Hong Kong-based exchange would list ETC as early as Wednesday. But whether other exchanges that list ETH move to add ETC trading remains to be seen. And how much will it go up you can predict now at Fairlay’s ‘ETC vs ETH: Value of Ethereum Classic at year end’ market. So, on which option will you put your money?

Steem is now the world's third-largest cryptocurreny, so what will its price be on September 1?

In the last ten days Steem, a new digital coin, started huge discussion in the cryptocurrency community as its value quickly increased from around 25 cents a coin to around $5. With this rais, Steem established itsefl as the world's third-largest cryptocurreny, behind Bitcoin and Ethereum. But, will it stay there?

As we all know, cryptocurrencies are notoriously volatile, and there is already plenty of people who want to make a quick profit on Steem. But, at the same time, prices can easily go down if those same investors rush for the exits. And many think that this will happen and that current Steem price is already on its high end (currently: $3.60).

Price of Steem on September 1, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/price-of-steem-on-september-1/.

On the other side, Steem's creators tout it as a revolutionary social-media platform that subverts the business model of Facebook and Reddit, allowing its users to profit from the content they create. Because of this, many think that its price could only go up. Is it true, or is it, and some say 'pump and dump economy that only favors the handful at the top?'

All in all, it will be interesting to see how Steem develops in the future, and what will happen with its price. So, now you have few different price ranges that could meet Steem on September 1. Will it go up, down, or stay on the current price level? And, what is your long-term opinion about Steem, do you agree that it is a great idea or just a dump economy?

To win the 2016 Nobel Prize in Literature – Murakami or someone else?

For the last few years, Japanese writer Haruki Murakami was the biggest favorite to win the Nobel Prize in Literature but he never won in. This October we will get new Nobel literature laureate and popular Murakami is once again the biggest favorite.

But once again he could be skipped and for the time being second favorite is a Kenyan writer Ngugi Wa Thiong'o, while good chances are also given to an America writer Joyce Carol Oates. And if you don’t trust in any of them, odds on authors like Philip Roth, Adunis, Ismail Kadare, Jon Fosse, or any other you can find at Fairlay:

Nobel Prize in Literature, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/nobel-prize-in-literature/.

To win the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize – Are Greek Islanders sure bet?

Barack Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009, whole European Union in 2012, Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet last year but now we have the question who will win it this year? At the moment most people think that it should be
Greek Islanders who have been on the frontline of the refugee crisis.

But if you don’t think that they will become Nobel laureate, then the second favorite is a global civil society coalition International Campaign To Abolish Nuclear Weapons, but also Denis Mukwege and Angela Merkel. They are followed by Pope Francis and if you have some other favorites, then you can find all the odds at Fairlay:

Nobel Peace Prize, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/nobel-peace-prize/.

Theresa May shaked up government with new-look cabinet, but who will leave it first?

Interesting week is behind us in UK politics as new Prime Minister Theresa May has unveiled a nearly completely new look cabinet, in a major departure from predecessor David Cameron's top team. And it couldn’t be more interesting.

George Osborne, Michael Gove, John Whittingdale, Nicky Morgan and Oliver Letwin have all been sacked by Mrs May.
Liz Truss is justice secretary, Justine Greening takes education and Tory leadership contender Andrea Leadsom has been promoted to environment secretary. Boris Johnson became foreign secretary. Philip Hammond was made chancellor.

First Cabinet Member to Leave, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/first-cabinet-member-to-leave-1/.

So, new cabinet has plenty of interesting names, at the end of which is Eurosceptic David Davis who will, meanwhile, take charge of negotiating Britain's exit from the European Union, in a newly created post of Brexit secretary.

And, it is Davis who is amongst those who could be the first one to leave the cabinet if things don’t go as he or May want. Andrea Leadsom, who was seen as a candidate for the new Prime minister, is also with good chances to leave first. But, of course, the first favorite is a new foreign secretary Boris Jonson as many see him leave before the end of year.

RealClearPolitics polling: Hillary is keeping lead just above 4.0% but can Trump lower it in the next week?

After raising to 6.0% lead on June 28, first half of July wasn’t great for Hillary as Trump managed to keep her lead under 5.0%, and it was at the recently lowest 4.3% yesterday. But what will happen next, and will Hillary move up in the polls after Sanders’ endorsement, or will Trump use momentum and move her lead even lower?

Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on July 20? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-july-20/.

So, recent polling certainly showed that Hillary was taking hit for her email scandal lies, and she even lost her lead in some important countries like Florida. With this, both Hillary Clinton and her campaign team should be freaking out, as issues with her honesty has been a sticking point for many Democrats during her primary run.

Thus, there is solid chance that she could go under 4.0% in polling lead, and you have great odds if you think she could go even under 3.0% lead. At the same time, Trump will receive a bump in the polling after the Republican National Convention next week and he also has to announce his vice presidential pick. So, will polling get even tighter?

Pokemon Go! It’s a new phenomenon, but who long will it last (and be at the top of the App Store)?

You can love it, or even hate it but confusion about Pokemon Go has been rising worldwide as its unprecedented growth makes more and more headlines. So, this game has been flooding the news and neighbourhoods but for many it seems as silly as it is impenetrable. And what is this fuss all about?

The answer is Pokemon Go, the new smartphone game from Nintendo and Niantic Labs. According to data tabled by Digital Vision, two days after the app’s launch, Pokemon Go was installed on 5.16% of Android devices in the US and had roared to the top of the iTunes app store’s free app charts. Nintendo’s stocks are reported to have risen to their highest value since 1983 and demand for the game was so high, with servers crashing regularly, that Amazon’s chief technology officer, Werner Vogels, even offered to share the traffic load.

How long will Pokemon Go be at the top of the App Store? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/how-long-will-pokemon-go-be-at-the-top-of-the-app-store/.

So, you surely tried to play it as well, or some of your friends did. Or, if you’ve been out and about over the past few days, chances are you’ve seen people frantically swiping their smartphones in front of places of interest, or listened with slight alarm as friends chattered excitedly about how they “caught a Sandshrew behind the supermarket”.

All in all, it is all really popular and interesting, so much that it brought a $7.5-billion US surge in Nintendo's market value. But for how long will this craziness about Pokemon Go last, or to ask more accurate question: “How long will Pokemon Go! be at the top of the App Store?” For weeks, months, or could it stay there even in 2017? At Fairlay market you have six different options, but take care that we put starting period for July 8, 2016 at 10:00 GMT time. So, what is your opinion on this market, and Pokemon Go itself?

Price of Crude Oil fell in recent days, but what will be end of the year Crude Oil price?

Oil prices fell once again this morning amid signs of an economic slowdown in Asia and evidence that US shale producers have now adapted to lower prices. Brent Crude Oil opened today at $46.49, after being at $50.10 last Monday. But, let’s look further on and try to predict where it will close at the end of the year.

According to Goldman Sachs, it will remain in a range of $45-50 per barrel over the next 12 months, as there is also mounting evidence that US shale drillers can adapt to prices of $45 or higher. But, few weeks ago former Shell Oil President told he’s “pretty bullish” on $80 per barrel oil by the end of the year.

End of the year price of Crude Oil, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/end-of-the-year-price-of-crude-oil-1/.

“Sometime in the fall, it could be in October or November, the Russians and the Saudis have got to get a grip on reality that they cannot face 2017 with the same collapse in their budgets… they are going to have to do something and the best thing for them to do, because they are so oil dependent, is to let the price of oil rise further,” he said.

So, what is your opinion on the price of a barrel of Brent Crude Oil, in USD, on December 31, 2016? Can it go over $75.00, or will it go up but stay in the range of $50.00 - $74.99? Or, do you think recent trends will continue so it will close year in the current range at $25.00 - $49.99, or even under $25.00?