just wondering?

There is a "sister" bank that actually holds the funds of gox in New york even though gox is based in Japan. It seems to me that if what they were doing here was simply attacking bitcoin then they would seize this banks funds but they haven't.

This leads me to think that they are just trying to control the ways you put funds into and out of gox.

In 8 years the block reward should be halved a couple more times.. so 25 > 12.5 > 6.25.

6.25 bitcoins per block reward!

typo "we are 100% sure that every of you will be"

Back a few months ago when bitcoin was just 10 dollars... I wonder if the amount of people investing in bitcoin now is 10 times that amount then maybe it isn't so overvalued after all?

I have a bad feeling though.

whenever you buy something from a merchant that uses bitpay the coins are basically going right to an exchange. In this way buying things to help the bitcoin economy will actually lower the price of bitcoin the more it is done. Only when bitcoin makes a full circle and employees and suppliers are paid in bitcoin will that change. I don't see that happening for several years at least. (Okay the internet archive might do it a little bit)

My thoughts are if the price can't crash downwards it will crash upwards first

but........

I am betting that by the end of the year bitcoin will be worth just $60

(betting nothing though)

nobody is going to be willing to keep millions of dollars on the exchange if the price isn't going up adequately (and is in fact going down)

it's too risky to keep a lot of money on I think.

I'm a bear now.

I'm just looking at bitcoinity averages...

the 30day average of btc china is %4.40
the 7 day average is %5.41
the 3 day avg is %8.07
24 avg is %7.83


it looks like it might be growing.........
maybe?

EDIT: I meant to post this in the speculation forum. Sorry.

I am really confused about this market right now. Here are my thoughts:

When you look at the chart of bitcoin this year one thing seems inescapable... that we are still overvalued. It almost seems as if bitcoin would have to violate some kind of charting laws to remain this high or keep going up........ but then I don't have much experience or trust in charts. It just looks that way.

There isn't much buying pressure or selling pressure. The price is stableish and the volume is dropping. This usually results in a breakout... buyers getting impatient and the price jumping. It almost seems though that all this new money on gox doesn't want coins at this price they are just waiting for cheaper coins. If they don't get the drop their money might just leave or wait longer for a price drop. But it seems like with the amount of people waiting to buy in cheap at 50-60 that the price will never be able to get that low any time soon.

On the other hand I think people are learning from panic selling that it might not be a good idea when you drop under 100 to keep panic selling because the price just rebounds.

In the next 6 months I can't really tell if the price will drop to 50 or rise to 200. My guess is somewhere in there!  Below 50 just seems too cheap when the question of whether bitcoin can succeed as a new currency is still up in the air and in doubt but looking positive (because of all the good news).

So here is my guess: we will see a slow increase to almost 120 by the weekend then a drop back to maybe 115... and next week we will see an increase to 130.

I never guess right though

I think since tuesday a lot more money has come into gox and they haven't bought the price up but they have kept it from falling. I think this means another surge to 130+

i'm still going to be cautious though

Just curious if their holiday is over

The price won't fall till at least tuesday. Perhaps wednesday. There is going to be low volume again tomorrow because the banks are still closed in japan. This is the longest banking holiday of the year for japan so it's a time when there is no new money at all.

Unfortunately the timing is off. Right when all the news reports about bitcoin were coming to a head a few weeks ago and the price was up... there was a crash. If that crash didn't happen we might be seeing 1k bitcions right now. but since it happened it put people off. There will be another crash/downturn before any chinese can get money into buying bitcoins and that will put them off buying any. So we will see the price drop but slower growth than expected. When people look at bitcoin again though in one or 2 years and see the price is back above 100 then it will take off again perhaps.

I am both pessimistic and optimistic about it. You can't deny that downloads of the client for instance have increased so there is more general awareness. But the skeptic in me says: The chinese don't make much money so they aren't going to be able to buy much. Maybe? Just because it was on TV doesn't mean the government approves it necessarily but it is still shocking that they didn't ban it outright.

On a positive note though........ imagine if china did not only approve bitcoin but encouraged it's citizens to get hold of it. They could become the wealthiest nation in just a few years. They already do some things that attract wealth inside of their country... they have a lot of production. They keep their gold and other resources instead of exporting them. That means there is real wealth there and not some fake wealth that the dollar might be someday if it stops being the worlds reserve currency.

a couple of things... a lot of people sold their coins in the crash  (I remember there was like 40 thousand coins just to get from 99 to 81 or something like that at least)

now that the market didn't actually sink a lot of people are left holding cash instead of bitcoins and they probably are thinking they just got tricked into selling

the buy walls could be some of those people

it could also be fake

then again from a strategic standpoint i'm not sure walls are made for psychological reasons. I think they are made for strategic reasons... you put a wall up to try to catch a dip.  But if something looks like it's tanking you are going to move the wall (not because it was fake) but because you want to catch the bottom

so the first bubble had an initial spike, followed by a second smaller surge... followed by an ensuing crash over months.

do you think it will take months to determine if bitcoin will go down to sub 50?

if by the end of this month bitcoin is above 100 would you consider this to be different than the first bubble and a positive thing?


My thinking is basically nobody will want to buy bitcoins anymore above a certain price after seeing their value can reduce by so much so shortly. So if anyone sees a + 100 price they aren't going to buy.

On tuesday it will be an interesting day because if there is low volume that means sellers will be holding out and waiting for buyers but there are no buyers at that price. Price will plummet.

I think the next 3 days will be the only above 100 days in the next year(s).


the only part of me that thinks otherwise is just sheer numbers. If there are only 11 million bitcoins and now so many people know about them it still makes them very scarce.

the thing is i'm only "verified" not trusted so it says a 1k daily limit and 10k monthly.

Would fees eat up small 1k transfers instead of just bigger transfers?

would dwolla or bank transfer be cheaper?

I'm taking all my risk out of bitcoin so I was wondering what is the way to do this with the lowest fees?

if the amount is more than 10k should I aim for a certain amount each transfer? or all at once?

next tuesday I think. mt gox issued a statement about it