Origin of the Separatists’ Buk: A Bellingcat Investigation



Summary

This report analyses evidence from open sources, in particular social media, relating to the Buk missile launcher filmed and photographed in eastern Ukraine on July 17th that many have linked to the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.

While other open source information is available on other aspects of the downing of MH17, the Bellingcat MH17 investigation team believes that this particular investigation provides solid information about the origin and movements of the Buk filmed and photographed on July 17th. The Bellingcat MH17 investigation team also believes that many of the unresolved questions about the downing of MH17 will be answered by the official investigation, and our investigation was made possible by the examination of open source material overlooked by other organisations.

The report is split into three sections. The first examines the open source evidence relating to the movements of the Buk in eastern Ukraine on July 17th, the second presents evidence that the Buk filmed and photographed on July 17th originated in Russia and was part of a convoy headed towards the Ukrainian border in late June, and the third looks at the activity of vehicles seen in the same convoy after July 17th.

It is the opinion of the Bellingcat MH17 investigation team that there is undeniable evidence that separatists in Ukraine were in control of a Buk missile launcher on July 17th and transported it from Donetsk to Snizhne on a transporter. The Buk missile launcher was unloaded in Snizhne approximately three hours before the downing of MH17 and was later filmed minus one missile driving through separatist-controlled Luhansk.

The Bellingcat MH17 investigation team also believes the same Buk was part of a convoy travelling from the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade in Kursk to near the Ukrainian border as part of a training exercise between June 22nd and July 25th, with elements of the convoy separating from the main convoy at some point during that period, including the Buk missile launcher filmed in Ukraine on July 17th. There is strong evidence indicating that the Russian military provided separatists in eastern Ukraine with the Buk missile launcher filmed and photographed in eastern Ukraine on July 17th.

A PDF version of this report is available: -  Origin of the Separatists’ Buk A Bellingcat Investigation.-

https://www.bellingcat.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Origin-of-the-Separatists-Buk-A-Bellingcat-Investigation1.pdf

The report is now available in German here:

https://www.bellingcat.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/bellingcat_-_bericht.pdf

Explore a map showing the separatists’ Buk and June and July convoys in Russia here:

https://www.mapbox.com/labs/bellingcat/index.html

Ukraine crisis: Russian 'Cargo 200' crossed border - OSCE


OSCE monitors also say more than 600 people in military clothing crossed the border over the last week

Vehicles apparently used to transport soldiers' bodies have been seen crossing the Russian-Ukrainian border, monitors from Europe's security body have said.

The OSCE monitors said in one case a vehicle marked "Cargo 200" - Russia's military code for soldiers killed in action - crossed from Russia into Ukraine on Tuesday and later returned.

Ukraine and the West accuse Russia of sending its soldiers to fight with separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin denies the allegations.

More than 4,000 people have died in the conflict between Ukraine's military and pro-Russian rebels in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Nearly a million people have fled their homes since the fighting started in April, a month after Russia annexed Ukraine's southern Crimea peninsula.

The violence in the east has continued despite a ceasefire deal struck in Minsk, Belarus, in September, with both sides accusing each other of shelling and other violations of the agreement.
'Russian military men'

In its weekly report on Wednesday, monitors from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said the "Cargo 200" vehicle was seen crossing from Russia into Ukraine at the Donetsk border checkpoint, Rostov region, on 11 November.

They said it returned to Russia several hours later. The OSCE did not inspect the vehicle.

The border crossing on the Ukrainian side - Dovzhansky - is currently controlled by the separatist rebels.

In Kiev, Ukrainian security spokesman Andriy Lysenko said that five vehicles "belonging to the Rostov funeral service" had crossed the border on Tuesday.

He alleged that they had transported "Russian military men".

Ukraine has repeatedly stated that a number of Russia's regularly troops have been killed in fighting in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Moscow denies the allegations as propaganda, but admits that what it describes as "Russian volunteers" are fighting alongside the rebels.
Three scenarios

Meanwhile, the US envoy to the UN, Samantha Power, has accused Russia of undermining a ceasefire in Ukraine after reports of Russian troops and military hardware entering the country.


A column of Russian tanks was seen on a road near the rebel-held town of Shakhtarsk on Monday

Speaking at a UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine on Wednesday, Ms Power said Russia was pursuing war in Ukraine while talking peace.

Russia's deputy ambassador to the UN, Alexander Pankin, dismissed the allegations.

The US called a meeting of the UN Security Council after Nato accused Russia of sending troops, artillery and air defence systems across the border into Ukraine.

Jens Toyber-Frandzen, the UN assistant secretary-general for political affairs, warned of "a return to full-scale fighting".

He said an alternative scenario - a simmering conflict "with sporadic low-level battles" - would also be "a catastrophe for Ukraine".

He also expressed concern at a third prospect - "a frozen or protracted conflict that would entrench the status quo in south-eastern Ukraine for years or decades to come".

Nato's top commander, US Gen Philip Breedlove, had earlier said that a Russian deployment in Ukraine - reported by Nato officials on Wednesday - might be intended to reinforce "pockets" under separatist control.

He did not specify how many troops, vehicles or weapons had been seen. A Nato official confirmed to the BBC that Nato had "assessed" that the equipment and troops were Russian in origin.

However, Russian defence official Maj Gen Igor Konashenkov said "there was and is no evidence" to support Gen Breedlove's claims.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30039004

Russia Sends Warships To Australia



Russia has sent a fleet of warships towards Australia in an apparent display of muscle-flexing ahead of the G20 meeting amid tensions between the two countries over the MH17 crash.

    Defence announced late on Wednesday it is "monitoring Russian naval vessels that are currently transiting through international waters to the north of Australia. . . ."

    Defence Force chief Mark Binskin confirmed Defence was watching the fleet. In a reference to the fact it was a considerable distance for the Russian navy to travel, he noted one of the ships was an ocean-going tug, which tows other ships. . . .

    Defence sources said the Australian Defence Force had sent two frigates, the Stuart and the Paramatta, and a P-3 Orion surveillance plane to monitor the Russians.

    It comes as Prime Minister Tony Abbott had a sharp meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing on the sidelines of the APEC summit, during which they discussed the MH17 crash. . . .

    Russia's TASS news agency reported late last month that the battle group, led by a Slava-class cruiser that is capable of carrying nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, left from Vladivostok on October 23.

    The fleet is made up of the "Varyag" cruiser, a destroyer named "Marshal Shaposhnikov", a salvage and rescue tug and a replenishment oiler.

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/russia-sends-warships-to-australia

Russian bomber patrols to reach Gulf of Mexico



MOSCOW (AP) — Russia's long-range bombers will conduct regular patrol missions from the Arctic Ocean to the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, the military said Wednesday, a show of muscle reflecting tensions with the West over Ukraine.

A statement from Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu comes as NATO has reported a spike in Russian military flights over the Black, Baltic and North seas as well as the Atlantic Ocean. It came as NATO's chief commander accused Moscow of sending new troops and tanks into Ukraine — a claim quickly rejected by Moscow.

Shoigu said Russian long-range bombers will conduct flights along Russian borders and over the Arctic Ocean. He added that "in the current situation we have to maintain military presence in the western Atlantic and eastern Pacific, as well as the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico."

He said that the increasing pace and duration of flights would require stronger maintenance efforts and relevant directives have been issued to industries.

Russian nuclear-capable strategic bombers were making regular patrols across the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans during Cold War times, but the post-Soviet money crunch forced the military to cut back. The bomber patrol flights have resumed under Putin's rule and have become increasingly frequent in recent years.

Earlier this year, Shoigu said that Russia plans to expand its worldwide military presence by seeking permission for navy ships to use ports in Latin America, Asia and elsewhere for replenishing supplies and doing maintenance. He said the military was conducting talks with Algeria, Cyprus, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Cuba, Seychelles, Vietnam and Singapore.

Shoigu said Russia was also talking to some of those countries about allowing long-range bombers to use their air bases for refueling.

Ian Kearns, director of the European Leadership Network, a London-based think tank, said the bomber patrols were part of Kremlin's efforts to make the Russian military "more visible and more assertive in its actions."

The new bomber flights "aren't necessarily presaging a threat," Kearns said. "They are just part of a general ramping-up of activities."

But he said "the more instances you have of NATO and Russian forces coming close together, the more chance there is of having something bad happening, even if it's not intentional."

On Monday, the European Leadership Network issued a report that found a sharp rise in Russian-NATO military encounters since the Kremlin's annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in March, including violations of national airspace, narrowly avoided mid-air collisions, close encounters at sea, harassment of reconnaissance planes, close overflights over warships and Russian mock bombing raid missions.

Three of the nearly 40 incidents, the think tank said, carried a "high probability" of causing casualties or triggering a direct military confrontation: a narrowly avoided collision between a civilian airliner and a Russian surveillance plane, the abduction of an Estonian intelligence officer and a large-scale Swedish hunt for a suspected Russian submarine that yielded no result.

In September, the report said, Russian strategic bombers in the Labrador Sea off Canada practiced cruise missile strikes on the U.S. Earlier this year, in May, the report said, Russian military aircraft approached within 50 miles (80 kilometers) of the California coast, the closest such Russian military flight reported since the end of the Cold War.

Russia-West ties have dipped to their lowest point since Cold War times over Moscow's annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Russian insurgents in eastern Ukraine. The West and Ukraine have continuously accused Moscow of fueling the rebellion with troops and weapons — claims Russia has rejected.

Fighting has continued in the east despite a cease-fire agreement between Ukraine and the rebels signed in September, and Ukraine and the West accused Russia recently of sending in new troops and weapons.

U.S. Gen. Philip Breedlove said Wednesday that in the last two days "we have seen columns of Russian equipment, primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defense systems and Russian combat troops entering into Ukraine."

Breedlove, who spoke in Sofia, Bulgaria, wouldn't say how many new troops and weapons have moved into Ukraine and wouldn't specify how the alliance obtained the information. The Russian Defense Ministry quickly rejected Breedlove's statement as groundless.

Breedlove said that the Russia-Ukraine border is "completely wide open," and "forces, money, support, supplies, weapons are flowing back and forth across this border completely at will."

"We need to get back to a situation where this international border is respected," he said.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/efcecffeb27244b98de4565598585885/russian-bomber-patrols-reach-gulf-mexico#overlay-context=article/7a56843d52504ab7938f570cc0258e23/west-bank-mosque-attacked-mayor-blames-settlers

First time for everything - Norwegian AF intercepted new RU SU-34 fighter/bombers off Norwegian coast in OCT.

Autotranslate from http://www.vg.no/nyheter/utenriks/forsvaret/her-flyr-russlands-nye-superfly-langs-norskekysten/a/23333831/

Russia's new superfly along the Norwegian coast


This was the sight that met the Norwegian pilots off the coast of Finnmark in late October: Brand new SU-34 Fullback fighter, the very latest and most advanced weapon in the Russian Air Force.

These are pictures you've never seen before: Brand new Russian SU-34 Fullback fighter off the coast of Norway.
VG follows

They are taken off the coast of Finnmark 29th October and close-ups of the Russian Air Force's new pride has not been published before VG got access to them today.

- The aircraft has been observed and identified by other NATO countries elsewhere earlier. But we've never seen them in North and off the coast of Norway before, says Brynjar Stordalselva, pressevakt Armed Forces Joint Headquarters, VG.

The very advanced fighter bombers are the latest in the increasingly robust Russian air force, and is built to carry nuclear weapons.

SU-34 aircraft has been in test phase, and the first was not put into active duty for the Air Force before June this year.

On one of the photos taken by the Norwegian pilots can see a Norwegian F-16 aircraft that included SU-34 aircraft just outside the Norwegian airspace. The Russian aircraft have what looks like external tanks for extra fuel. Under the wings are the weapons - probably for use in air to air combat.

The Norwegian aircraft shown is that of the fighters who are on limited readiness to intercept and identify aggressive Russian fighters.


UNDER ATTENTION: A Norwegian F-16 (right) gets a close encounter with Russian Su-34 Fullback for the very first time. It is also the first time SU-34 is in the North.

And although the Russian air traffic along the coast of Norway has been relatively stable for several years, there is one significant difference:

The Russian planes are becoming newer and more advanced.

- There is a replacement and renewal of Russian assets and capabilities in all areas, both on land, at sea and in the air. This is a clear example of, say Stordalselva.
Almost Crashes with SAS-fly

Today let the London-based think tank European Leadership Network presented a report showing how the Russian armed forces are acting far more aggressively this year compared to previous years.

The report lists 40 serious incidents, many of them in the Norwegian vicinity. Among the events are submarine hunting in the Swedish archipelago , and the dramatic minutes when a Russian patrol was only 90 meters from a SAS plane of Malmö, on the road from Copenhagen to Rome.

Also the Russian planes flying along the Norwegian coast in the afternoon on October 29 mentioned in the report. The Norwegian fighters quickly discovered the four TU-95 Bear H bombers and IL-78 tanker aircraft that followed them.
Brandishing the outside Finnmark

But that Norwegian pilots for the first time had close contact with the new Russian SU-34 fighter planes - and that they all were part of the large formation - has not been known before.

- There were a total of ten aircraft when they set out from the base on the Kola Peninsula. Escort aircraft, the two SU-34-one, turned north of the Norwegian airspace off the coast of Finnmark, says Stordalselva to VG.

Several of the aircraft continued along the Norwegian coast, closely followed by Norwegian F-16. In international airspace somewhere outside South Norway took British Typhoon fighter jets over the escort job, before F-16 aircraft from the Portuguese Air Force followed Bear bombers on the last of the journey.

The Russian bombers turned namely not until they were off the coast of Portugal.

- We know that the Russians have the capacity to fly so far. But it is very rare that they fly as far south as this, says Stordalselva to VG.

The two days in late October to NATO planes in the air to intercept and identify Russian fighter and bomber numerous times. The number was so large that NATO issued a separate press release in which they referred to it as "exceptionally high level of activity in European airspace."

- After this activity has returned to more normal levels. We have not experienced such large formations as the day the last few weeks, says Stordalselva to VG.
Blames "Russophobia"

Russia's annexation of the Crimea and the highly active intervention in the conflict in eastern Ukraine has caused concern for what is Vladimir Putin's real ambitions in several western countries.

It also made ​​statements President Vladimir Putin's personal envoy Sergei Markov came with the Swedish media Tuesday ..

But quite elsewhere than in Sweden:

- You're in Sweden need not be afraid. Latvia and Estonia, however, reason to be afraid. If there is a major war, it is possible that there will not be anything left of these countries, says Markov to SVT.

He has previously stated that Finland is one of the most russofobiske countries in Europe. This time, he owes the increased tension between Russia and Western countries on what he calls Russophobia.

- The problem is Russophobia of the leading elite in the west. Russosfobi is racism against Russians. Get their land to stop being russofober, because it's going to be so much easier for you to live, says Markov.

" Это провал" - подумал Штирлиц...

Alex Apple
В советское время за такой промах всю телебригаду НТВ уволили бы без права работать по профессии . Навсегда. Только в кочегарке или общепите. Этот кадр идет под дикторский голос: "Украинская пропаганда продолжает утверждать, что на ее территории находятся, якобы, какие-то части российской армии. Ничего, кроме смеха, такие утверждения не могут вызвать".

Russia Brinkmanship: 14 Stunts Against West

There have been 14 serious military activities by an emboldened Russia against the West in the past eight months.


Probing another country's military preparedness is fairly routine, but a report by the European Leadership Network (ELN) details 14 cases since March when Russia went beyond what is regarded as acceptable.

High Risk Incidents - Defined by the ELN as those "with a high probability of causing casualties or a direct military confrontation between Russia and Western states.

:: 3 March 2014: A close encounter occurs between a passenger plane from airline SAS taking off from Copenhagen, and a Russian reconnaissance aircraft which did not transmit its position.

A collision was only avoided thanks to good visibility, and the passenger plane's pilot.



Western sanctions on Russia and NATO patrols of the Baltic Sea would have been the likely result of such a crash.

:: 5 September 2014: An Estonian security service officer called Eston Kohver is abducted by Russian agents from an Estonian border post and accused of espionage in Moscow.

Smoke grenades and communications jamming equipment were used in the abduction, which followed assurances by US President Barack Obama of security for the Baltic States.

:: 17-27 October 2014: The biggest anti-submarine operation in Sweden since the Cold War takes place after intelligence reports of "underwater activity" in the Stockholm archipelago.

No submarine was found but on 24 October the Swedish military said "foreign underwater activity" had probably taken place.

Serious Incidents - Defined as cases which are beyond routine probing of defences, usually involving aggressive or provocative close encounters.

:: 12 April 2014: An unarmed Russian fighter makes 12 passes of American warship the USS Cook in the Black Sea. The report said that it could have resulted in retaliation on the orders of the ship's commander.

:: 23 April 2014: An armed Russian fighter undertakes threatening manoeuvres near an American reconnaissance aircraft in the Sea of Okhotsk.

The manoeuvres involved demonstrating that the fighter was armed.

:: June 2014: Armed Russian aircraft approach the heavily populated Danish island of Bornholm before breaking off in what appears to have been a simulated attack.

:: 16 July 2014: An armed Russian aircraft intercepts a Swedish surveillance plane conducting operations between Gotland and Latvia in international airspace, flying within 10 metres of the plane.

:: 18 July 2014: An American surveillance plane conducting operations near Kaliningrad is chased into Swedish airspace after being approached by Russian fighters.

:: September 2014: Russian strategic bombers in the Labrador Sea near Canada simulate cruise missile strikes on the United States.

:: 7 September 2014: Frigate HMCS Toronto is buzzed by a Russian aircraft in the Black Sea, with the plane coming within 300 (984ft) metres of the warship.



:: 17 September 2014: Two Russian military aircraft cross into Swedish airspace south of the island of Oland.

:: 19 September 2014: Russian officers detain a Lithuanian shipping vessel in international waters in the Barents Sea, subsequently towing it to Murmansk.

:: 3 October 2014: A Russian fighter flies "within metres" of Swedish surveillance aircraft in the Baltic in an incident deemed "unusually provocative".

:: 28-30 October 2014: Russia conducts a major air exercise in the North Sea, Atlantic, Black Sea and Baltic Sea.

Their scale added significantly to increased tensions between NATO and Russia.

http://news.sky.com/story/1370352/russia-brinkmanship-14-stunts-against-west

ruSSian army convoy with D-30 artillery, arriving in #Donetsk.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QSs338_epA


VIDEO #ruSSia convoy 80 veh IN #RUSSIA BEFORE enter #Ukraine today



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plPgD1nPOLo&list=UUAZg55_KAkaKdJxqDd4JksA
 

OSCE observes convoys of heavy weapons and tanks in #Donetsk & Makeevka

In the city of Donetsk and in Makeevka (25km north-east of Donetsk city), in “DPR”-controlled territory, the SMM observed convoys of heavy weapons and tanks. At the time of reporting, the SMM could hear heavy, outgoing shelling to the north and northwest of the city’s outskirts, which had started at 14:45hrs.

http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/126483