This is something I've been analyzing for some time too and even though I disagree with you on some points, I'd say your theory is a pretty solid one.


As you can see the correlation here is not that strong. For example from November 2022 the DXY keeps dumping Jan 2023 while bitcoin either drops a little or shows no reaction to the big dump in DXY.
There are two reasons for the lack of strong correlation. One is that a lot of other factors affect bitcoin than just what US fiat does. Another is the interest rate which is not only rising in US but also rising a lot of other places.

I'd say basically it's all about the interest rate as the chart below shows a much better correlation compared to the one above.


You see when the FED (and others in other countries) raise the interest rate it becomes more attractive to invest in bonds (read: buy US debt and get a high interest on your investment). So whenever the US regime increases the interest rate, it acts like a vacuum sucking all the money from all the markets (look at gold chart and you'll see the same struggle there too) towards US bonds because it becomes the most attractive investment at that time. Ergo people dump their other assets like bitcoin and gold.

As we can see the second phase of bitcoin crash (from $45k+) starts as soon as FED increases the rates in March 2022 until the big first jump ends.
We can also see that the second big jump does not have nearly the same effect as the fist one which proves my first point above that there are a lot of other factors affecting bitcoin price.

Interest rate from 0.25 to 2.5
Bitcoin price from $45k to $20k -55%

Interest rate from 0.25 to 4.5
Bitcoin price from $20k to $15k -25%

Interest rate from 4.5 to 5.5
Bitcoin price from $15k to $25k +66%

That's one way of doing arbitrage trading but another way which is less risky is to have funds in both places and perform the trades using those funds. For example you have both bitcoin and dollar on exchange A and B. If bitcoin price is higher on exchange A compared to B, you sell some of your bitcoins in A and buy the same amount (or more) in B. This way your net-worth increases while not moving any funds at all.

After some time and many trades where the equilibrium between your balances is no longer there, you can transfer some funds to reach equilibrium again.

Is it though? Bitcoin adoption, despite what it may feel like, is still pretty small around the globe. A lot of people may have heard the name "Bitcoin" but a tiny fraction of them have ever bothered adopting it. This is exactly why bitcoin is currently priced at $25k instead of a million dollar.

First of all there is a different between using bitcoin and trading cryptocurrencies, the former is what we want and the later is not useful at all.
Secondly you have to first see why these handful of countries have banned bitcoin in first place then try to solve that reason and eradicate their concerns before the ban can be lifted. For example a country like Bangladesh doesn't have nearly enough surveillance capability like United States with its military organization called NSA to be able to fight illegal digital activities so it is understandable for Bangladesh to ban bitcoin but not US.

If you want to know the effects of halving on miners, all you have to do is to look at the past 14 years and the past 3 halvings. In other words people who claim it will have a "backlash" because miners make less money have not checked the history where hashrate keeps on growing after the halving even though the income is 50% less in terms of bitcoin.

As for the price, again the history suggests that there will be a hype during the months leading to halving which could cause a rise which will disappear after the halving and price can come down a little. But in long run the decreased rate of supply creation will reduce the sell pressure and price will go up.

Well that's one way to scam people, since bitcoin testnet has "bitcoin" name attached to it, using them could create some scamming opportunities. In fact this is similar to the Ordinals Attack where people who use it instead of using an actual token creation platform are doing it only because it has the name "bitcoin" in it! which helps them pull off their scam easier.

Things feel the same and have been felling the same ever since 2008 because they never solved the actual problem that led to 2008 economic crisis, instead they just put a band-aid on it and swept the real problem under the rug where it could fester.

There have been a couple of other big financial crises between the Great Depression after 1939 and 2008, some of them were short but some were big like the 1970's and 1980's ones.
- Recession of 1945 (due to high spending by the end of WW2)
- Recession of 1949 that lasted a year (Truman's "Fair Deal" reforms)
- Recession of 1953 that lasted 11 months (aftermath of Korean War)
- Recession of 1970's (lasted 2+ years due to Arabs increasing oil price and sanctioning EU/US),
- Recession of 1980's starting near the end of 1979 started by Iranian revolution increasing oil price then the FED raising interest rates pushed US economy into recession which lasts to about 1982 (~2 years and 8 months)

This "slow" adjustment is the next big problem that prevents the difficulty to go back to "normal" and lets the miners keep mining at low difficulty despite it being on the rise. There is cap on how much it can rise (or fall) in each adjustment because if the time is smaller (or bigger) than a quarter of (or bigger than 4x) 2 weeks in seconds, it will fall down to default 302,400 (or 4,838,400) sec.
In other words in this case, even though it takes them minutes to mine 2016 blocks, the protocol assumes it takes 84 hours and increases the target based on that.

[1] https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/f1a9fd627b1a669c4dfab797da42825230708f2a/src/pow.cpp#L56-L59

Historically speaking there are times when some miners with a bunch of ASIC miners use their computing power to mine on TestNet. Since the difficulty is low most of the times, their hashrate is more than enough to mine a large number of blocks in a very short time.

To compare, the current difficulty in TestNet is 1024 while on MainNet it is 54,150,142,369,480.
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/testnet
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin

P.S. regarding the worthlessness of tbtc I have to say in the past there have been some scams involving these coins that gave them kind of a value. Some were big and led to migration to the version 3 TestNet (the current chain) and some were smaller like the last time they were swapping shittokens on token platforms like ethereum with tbtc effectively giving them a value.
This may be the reason for a couple of these hashrate spikes we saw in the past.

It's typical of you to only take out a small point in a whole topic and try to change the subject.
You have forgotten that 7 months ago in the topic about "Economic implications of a US-China-Taiwan conflict" all the arguments were China's inability to build any decent microchips and some even suggested that there is to "engineering talent" in China to do so.
Now that China is manufacturing high tech chips, of course you want to focus on Apple...

That's true but the point is that this is not the only case and it is not just China. The economic war between US and China has been going on and China is giving as much as it gets. A lot of other countries are taking actions from dedollarisation to decreasing imports from US that is hurting US economy. For example Iran jut banned the new iPhones in the country too and that's a $6 billion market.

Another point I'd like to make is that the US debt based economy is weaker and a lot more vulnerable than the Chinese production based economy. The only reason why the effects of all these things on US economy hasn't been catastrophic yet is the huge interest rate with constant money printing and exporting inflation.
In simple terms US has turned its economy into a Ponzi scheme where they create debt and sell it to Europe and countries like Japan so that this way they can keep their own economy artificially alive and hope to go back to the Old World Order to revive it for real.

How did you change a letter in a .dat file?
Because if you opened the .dat file in a text editor and then started modifying the text, you may have already broken the "data" in it since .dat file is not a plain-text to be modified this way. Not to mention that depending on the text editor you may have even changed the encoding of the represented "text" that would end up corrupting the file even further.

Another point of having a "recovery" phrase is to be able to import it in other wallets to recover it for example in case the initial wallet you used stopped working. But you have to see which seed phrase algorithm they are using, for example BIP39 is used by more wallets than Electrum algorithm and a lot more than AEZEED which is very unpopular.

Being offline or online doesn't make a difference in this recovery process since it occurs locally on your system. However, you it is discouraged to import the seed generated with one wallet into another because of both security and privacy reasons. For example in Electrum you know that you are connecting to specialized full nodes that are mostly run by individuals and possibility of some spy ones but in some other SPV clients we already know they are relying on a single server run by a centralized entity. So your level of privacy is not the same.

Whether it is fake news or legit doesn't make any difference because it is a random statement by a "random" person not a prediction or even a half decent speculation. Everyone knows that bitcoin price will go on and will surpass a million eventually specially as fiat keeps dumping but the real question that nobody can answer is when.

Realistically these regulations have always ended up meaning more restrictions and KYC and they harm adoption more than they can help it. After all governments look for more control, specially those addicted to power and surveillance.

It's effects are negligible. We had the last US Election where people thought the same way specially since some people were hyping it up back then and it had no effects on the market whatsoever.

Whether or not people can spend bitcoin in any country depends on the level of adoption specially in countries where they are just "bitcoin friendly", you may not see that many places where they accept bitcoin payments. Things are only a little different where bitcoin is legal tender, many still don't have any clue how to accept it and the few who do are going through a lot of centralization.

Considering how it seems like they've generated these "words" using random sequence of letters, it is possible that what you have is not a seed phrase but some customized encoding with random letters split into 7 letter chunks that look like words.
Does that ring a bell?

This involves a bunch of problems. The most notable ones are volatility and control.
If anything decentralized like bitcoin or centralized like XRP or any other altcoin is used, all trades will be affected by their volatile price that stems from their small markets that can be manipulated (even more for altcoins).
If the technology is taken and a separate new network is created (like using Ripple not XRP) then it still suffers from the shortcomings of the blockchain technology that will show itself a lot more when it is centralized. In other words there is no reason to do it when they can just create a SWIFT like system!

I don't know what you mean by "a US company", maybe a typo? but regarding what Iran uses, there are a bunch of things. Most notable ones are gold, mutual currencies and alternatives of SWIFT, and last but not least bitcoin specially since over the past couple of years mining has been growing in Iran.
AFAIK there are no other cryptocurrencies used for trades even the Digital Rial project is still not fully operational.

To be clear the point is not to be "under the radar", the point is to remove United States control over your money so that they can no longer steal it at any time and for any reason.
In fact in this context, this movement is very similar to bitcoin. Bitcoin transactions are not "under the radar", instead they are out there for the whole world to see but no central authority can censor them. This is why bitcoin was created and is used, and similarly will be why the alternative to SWIFT will be created.

BIP-16 (Pay to Script Hash) was the first time complexity was added into the simple FORTH like Bitcoin script system. Before BIP16 you'd just read each "command" from left to right and execute them using a stack. After BIP16 you first have to analyze the output-script to see if it matches the predefined patterns which will then tell you if you need to take "extra steps" before doing what you were doing before.
Today more complexity is added, for example if the output-script matches the OP_N <data> pattern, the code has to execute the branch related to SegWit where some OP codes like OP_CHECKSIG are acting differently.

You should post these things in Project Development board (there is a move topic button at the bottom of the page).
Also you should try to target the newer .net versions such as .net 6 (LTS version) or .net 7 (latest release) so that the project is not limited to Windows and can run multi platform. Not to mention that .net 4.8 is somewhat ancient at this point.

It may work in a certain scenario when using one seed for different coins. If you derive their child master keys at non-hardened paths and the coin protocol or the implementation of it is broken and leaks your child private key (broken DSA) and master public key (broken/weak communication protocol), then your "other wallets" could be at risk too.

Yeah, it's the poor mans scam for sure
The scammer probably had a slow machine that couldn't brute force more than 2 from the start and 4 checksum characters. In fact the forth letter was the first thing I noticed that helped me recognize the difference.