I know about MFI, but after investigating/backtracking it I found it has worse performance than RSI on Bitcoin - it generates more false signals.
I hope OP does backtesting. I had nice backtesting results using the MFI and another indicator, but I found some that gave better results. Reading for the OP Technical Analysis from A to Z |
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Since you are using MtGox you should take advantage of their volume data. Use the Money Flow Index (MFI). It is like the RSI, but instead of using price it uses volume in the equation. Whatever momentum oscillator you use (RSI, MFI) you should not just do the basic overbought/oversold (above 70/below 30) indicators. You should use to to detect divergence in the price. So if the price of bitcoins hits a new high but the RSI or MFI has a lower high than in the past then that is a bearish divergence. Price will likely go down. If the price of bitcoins hits a new low but the RSI or MFI has a higher lower then that is a bullish divergence and the price will likely diverge upward. |
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So I would like to start sampling and saving the mt gox order book and price info for analysis. I am able to gather the trade history using slush's sierrachartfeed script, but no orderbook info. The most complicated thing I have ever programmed was a perl script that asked for username and password then attempted to play blackjack with you and failed. It would be most convenient if this would work on windows xp, but I can install some linux distro if recommended. Also what is the forum code to make my links like this (html example): <a href=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6019.0>sierrachartfeed-0.4</a> What kind of analysis do you want to do? |
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Does the site have enough volume to accurately predict? |
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What about for business accounts?
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I wish I knew a way of changing the situation, but I don't know how.
Change your citizenship. |
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..just to disclose some information: me and some friends are currently working on a fully automated trading system.
we are at the moment evaluating proper indicators and setting up a environment to backtest the system.
it will probably not make use of 'complicated' indicators and stick to the common ones: MACD, SMA, EMA, Volatility
..what indicators do you trust in the most?
If you are going to go the Technical Indicator route then you should have a momentum indicator to catch when the market is trending and also have a oscillator so that you can see reversals. Back test your trading strategy with a random trading behavior strategy. If your strategy is not statistically better than the random trading strategy then find a better combination. Most importantly for your trading system is to have proper money management. |
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I think once it becomes easier to exchange bitcoins back into local currency at a low fee then that is when the price will take off.
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That is dumb, / should mean "per" or "divided by". Oh well, yet another lame contradiction to remember.
The format is not a mathematical equation, it is a syntax. XXX/YYY means "The base currency XXX is quoted at N number of the YYY quote currency. |
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I tend to believe markets, like complex systems in general, are mostly chaotic and unpredictable that is one of the main problems I have with libertarians and many people who dont understand math. Chaotic, does not equate to perfect randomness. A tree growing is chaotic, but in the end, the end result will be very tree like. If it was random, sometimes a tree would look like a bear. The only thing chaotic math says is that your answers will be in probabilities rather than exact numbers. THAT DOES NOT MAKE IT UNPREDICTABLE, just less exact. Think of it this way. The normal non libertarian weather man, gives us weather reports. He gives us the probability it will rain based on what happened the last time conditions where this way. It does mean he is never officially wrong. But generally speaking if he says there is an 80% chance of rain, it most likely will rain that day. with your totally random method.. say flipping a coin, you are going to be wrong about half the time, way way way way way worse than the weather man and his chaotic system. it drives me absolutely nuts to read milton or mises and listen to them claim that chaos is totally unpredictable and as such totally useless in economics. Do they not grab a fucking umbrella when the weather man says 80% chance of rain? why the fuck do they think he gives percentages? Chaotic math is not the every day math we are used to, just like realitivity described a time we are not used to in our every day non light speed traveling lives. That doesnt make chaotic math wrong or useless or equated with randomness. I think the problem is that people think stochastic or randomness means that a person cannot predict was is going to happen. Really the definition of stochastic is a system whose behavior is non-deterministic. A deterministic system will always produce the same outcome with the same inputs. A non-deterministic system can produce different outcomes using the same inputs, but some outcomes maybe be more likely to occur than other outcomes. |
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I got the free 8GB trial. I will definitely pay for this service.
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Just realized poll is a trick question. I will be sad if we start measuring value by BTC/USD instead of USD/BTC.
You are confusing yourself. BTC is the base currency. The base currency is on the left of the slash and the counter (quote) currency is on the right So if the exchange rate of BTC/USD is 4.5000 that means 1 BTC is quoted at 4.5000 USD. You might be thinking BTC/USD means Bitcoins per dollar, but don't think of it that way. Thanks. I was assuming the forward slash indicated division. No problem. When I started learning about currency exchange rates I thought it was the same way. I have only seen one bitcoin exchange that doesn't use BTC as the base currency. They only have a volume of less than 1000 so they don't matter anyway. |
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Just realized poll is a trick question. I will be sad if we start measuring value by BTC/USD instead of USD/BTC.
You are confusing yourself. BTC is the base currency. The base currency is on the left of the slash and the counter (quote) currency is on the right So if the exchange rate of BTC/USD is 4.5000 that means 1 BTC is quoted at 4.5000 USD. You might be thinking BTC/USD means Bitcoins per dollar, but don't think of it that way. |
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Saw this question posted before but I thought it would be more helpful in a poll format.
By March 1, 2012 what do you think the BTC/USD exchange rate will be on Mtgox?
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Thought I would leave this interview with the author of The End of Money. I though it was interesting, but I wish the author went further and suggested the end of fiat money... |
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$3.00 soon?
Sign me up.
Everyone who regrets not buying in $3.00> is now faced with a glorious redemption opportunity.
Come friday, paycheck is getting gutted to buy into this.
Until then, Everybody keep panicking! Push it below $1.00!
So you will be attending the Cat Funeral after all. Thank you for finally validating the aforementioned Dead Cat Bounce. Wasn't so hard now, was it? Not at all. Anyone who seriously thinks the market will never move upwards after this point is a damn fool. This cat's made of superballs, baby! I use to work at this law firm represented this large company. One day there were reports that this company didn't really make any money and that they had all this debt. The reports said the company was hiding their debt in shell companies overseas. There was panic in the market and people started to dump the company's stock. At the law firm a lot of people owned this company's stock. They called up their colleagues at this company and asked what was going on. The lawyers of the firm I worked for got reassurance from their client that everything was OK. The law firm I worked for had just done an audit only months before showing that everything the company was doing was legit. Everyone at that law firm was in denial. The large company was just stalling, trying to keep the price up, so they could shred enough documents before the SEC came in. That large company was Enron. |
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Capitulation incoming?
No, this is still denial that bitcoins are crashing. |
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"Sex trade" does not mean "adult entertainment industry". It means "prostitution".
In some countries and some states in the USA there is not much difference between prostitution and pornography. In some places, like Singapore, prostitution is legal while pornography is illegal. I have never watched his show so I don't care one way or the other. |
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Does this signify anything?
maybe |
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yep hourly, it's on the cusp atm, neck & neck  That is a rather predictable effect of a bunch o' traders adopting this strategy... Yep.. they called me crazy when I said that before, but I've seen it several times since and I'm convinced. When enough people start trading this way I will use the EMA9/20 crossover. |
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