Here is my little bit outdated forecast of yesterday, with updated data versus the earlier forecast. I will do anothe forecast later, it just that yesterday I was a bit busy so I forgot to publish it in time, so you can already compare the results of the forecast with the actual price that has been revealed since then.



The last data price is of :  1485237600 unix time , Tue, 24 Jan 2017 06:00:00 GMT
The price chart is of 30 minutes, so each new price will represent a 30 minute candlestick if you will (just add in 1800 increments to the unix time to get the date):


   nr of datapoint   forecast price   standard error    95% confidence interval
     14211                  0.000054     0.000003     0.000047 - 0.000060
     14212                  0.000055     0.000004     0.000047 - 0.000063
     14213                  0.000055     0.000005     0.000046 - 0.000064
     14214                  0.000055     0.000005     0.000045 - 0.000066
     14215                  0.000054     0.000006     0.000042 - 0.000065
     14216                  0.000055     0.000006     0.000043 - 0.000067
     14217                  0.000055     0.000007     0.000042 - 0.000068
     14218                  0.000055     0.000007     0.000041 - 0.000068
     14219                  0.000054     0.000007     0.000040 - 0.000068
     14220                  0.000055     0.000008     0.000040 - 0.000069
     14221                  0.000054     0.000008     0.000039 - 0.000069
     14222                  0.000054     0.000008     0.000038 - 0.000070
     14223                  0.000054     0.000008     0.000037 - 0.000070
     14224                  0.000052     0.000009     0.000035 - 0.000069
     14225                  0.000052     0.000009     0.000035 - 0.000069
     14226                  0.000054     0.000009     0.000036 - 0.000071
     14227                  0.000054     0.000009     0.000036 - 0.000073
     14228                  0.000054     0.000010     0.000035 - 0.000073
     14229                  0.000054     0.000010     0.000035 - 0.000073
     14230                  0.000054     0.000010     0.000034 - 0.000074
     14231                  0.000054     0.000010     0.000034 - 0.000074
     14232                  0.000054     0.000010     0.000033 - 0.000074
     14233                  0.000053     0.000011     0.000032 - 0.000074
     14234                  0.000053     0.000011     0.000032 - 0.000074
     14235                  0.000052     0.000011     0.000030 - 0.000074
     14236                  0.000052     0.000011     0.000029 - 0.000074
     14237                  0.000052     0.000011     0.000029 - 0.000074
     14238                  0.000052     0.000012     0.000030 - 0.000075
     14239                  0.000053     0.000012     0.000029 - 0.000076
     14240                  0.000053     0.000012     0.000029 - 0.000076
     14241                  0.000053     0.000012     0.000029 - 0.000077
     14242                  0.000054     0.000012     0.000029 - 0.000078
     14243                  0.000052     0.000013     0.000027 - 0.000077
     14244                  0.000051     0.000013     0.000026 - 0.000076
     14245                  0.000049     0.000013     0.000024 - 0.000075
     14246                  0.000049     0.000013     0.000023 - 0.000075
     14247                  0.000050     0.000013     0.000023 - 0.000076
     14248                  0.000051     0.000014     0.000024 - 0.000077
     14249                  0.000051     0.000014     0.000024 - 0.000078
     14250                  0.000051     0.000014     0.000024 - 0.000079
     14251                  0.000052     0.000014     0.000024 - 0.000079
     14252                  0.000051     0.000014     0.000023 - 0.000079
     14253                  0.000051     0.000015     0.000023 - 0.000080
     14254                  0.000051     0.000015     0.000022 - 0.000079
     14255                  0.000052     0.000015     0.000023 - 0.000081
     14256                  0.000052     0.000015     0.000023 - 0.000081
     14257                  0.000051     0.000015     0.000021 - 0.000080
     14258                  0.000051     0.000015     0.000021 - 0.000081
     14259                  0.000050     0.000015     0.000020 - 0.000081
     14260                  0.000049     0.000016     0.000019 - 0.000080
     14261                  0.000051     0.000016     0.000020 - 0.000082
     14262                  0.000050     0.000016     0.000019 - 0.000081
     14263                  0.000049     0.000016     0.000018 - 0.000081
     14264                  0.000049     0.000016     0.000017 - 0.000080
     14265                  0.000049     0.000016     0.000017 - 0.000081
     14266                  0.000048     0.000016     0.000016 - 0.000080
     14267                  0.000050     0.000016     0.000018 - 0.000082
     14268                  0.000051     0.000017     0.000019 - 0.000084
     14269                  0.000052     0.000017     0.000019 - 0.000084
     14270                  0.000053     0.000017     0.000020 - 0.000085
     14271                  0.000051     0.000017     0.000018 - 0.000084
     14272                  0.000051     0.000017     0.000017 - 0.000084
     14273                  0.000051     0.000017     0.000017 - 0.000084
     14274                  0.000051     0.000017     0.000017 - 0.000085
     14275                  0.000051     0.000017     0.000017 - 0.000085
     14276                  0.000052     0.000017     0.000018 - 0.000086
     14277                  0.000052     0.000018     0.000017 - 0.000086

AMP is like 2 years old, why would anyone think that it's a scam is beyond me.

Of course I guess anything that goes down in price and makes investors unconfortable is a scam to people.

The price has nothing to do with the developers, they are still doing their job, it's just the crybaby investors who sell at every small news that they dont like.


Well I won't sell, that is for sure, and I have quite a lot of AMPs in my bag. I think selling is for crybabies only!

Yes but Stalin was an angel compared to the eugenicist globalist Nazis that live today.


And also lets not forget that Stalin has recruited Nazis after WW2 just like the US, so probably the "dirty stuff" was handled by Nazis in the Soviet Union.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Osoaviakhim
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Paperclip


The whole eugenicist "evil mad scientist" movement is a Nazi operation and probably still run by Nazis.

Thanks, I feel like this thread is full of 5 year olds, complaining about their emotions. Big investors don't behave like this.





It is you who is the 5 year old emotional crybaby. You can't take the drawdowns? What kind of investor are you?

If you have any serious investing experience, you should know that there are no silver bullets, all investments starts out hard, and when the breakthrough happens the euphoria will begin.

I bet most people here were euphoric when the price has going to 30k, and now as it is low, they are crying.

How ridiculous is that to have your mood set by the price? An investor should be objective and without emotions.

Anyone who can't handle the stress, should not invest, because they will probably have heart attacks, seriously.

People who can't handle the stress, will destroy their health.

I have been trying to say that too. Bunch of newbie accounts coming here to scream "SCAM SELL AMP SCAM!!!" is just so childish.

I have to delete posts that are not constructive and are clearly just a FUD attempt to scare investors with false claims.

No I'm not American and I'm not a Leftist.

I actually hate the Left, but I particularly hate the Nazis more than the left.

It's 1 thing to have to have theft+economic maddnes, it's another thing to have theft+economic madness + extreme authoritarianism + genocide.

So the Nazis are the ultimate form of scum.


Jesus Christ, are you a Nazi? You have a swastika in your profile. WTF is happening here?

You will never become successful in life with that attitude.

Sometimes I think the investors are babies, who just constantly complain when the price goes down -1%.

There is practically no investment on earth where drawdowns don't happen, but that doesnt mean that people should just cry every 10 minutes when the price moves unfavorably.

Besides the value of AMP doesnt come from your emotions, it comes from the hard work of Dor and his team, and when they will be ready, then I believe the real value will be unleashed, that investors will hopefully appreciate more.

Here is my forecast, although the model's precision is not that high, I have used a larger resolution of data to calculate it, so it should be a much higher quality forecast than my previous one:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1758541.msg17584404#msg17584404

Here is another forecast of the price. This time I used a larger resolution of 30 minute data, with larger lag order to get a more accurate picture of how the price will behave.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=995987.msg17545714#msg17545714

And also the new price data overrides the old prediction, since with new data we get a totally different forecast. The old forecast predicted a radical price rising back to the 0.003 levels ,which unfortunately didn't happen, but this new forecast is not just more accurate from the previous model's forecast, but also has new fresh data for it, at a higher resolution.

I used OLS model this time since the Auto-Regression model is too hard to calculate for large lags, but the error difference is only about 2-3% at maximum, so it's still a quality forecast, with much faster calculation rate.




The start timestamp is: 1485045000 (unix)

So just add 30 minutes to it to get the date:


Timestamp                prediction      std. error        95% interval

1485045000               0.000057     0.000056
     14104                  0.000058     0.000003     0.000051 - 0.000064
     14105                  0.000058     0.000004     0.000050 - 0.000066
     14106                  0.000056     0.000005     0.000047 - 0.000066
     14107                  0.000057     0.000005     0.000046 - 0.000067
     14108                  0.000056     0.000006     0.000045 - 0.000067
     14109                  0.000056     0.000006     0.000043 - 0.000068
     14110                  0.000057     0.000007     0.000044 - 0.000070
     14111                  0.000057     0.000007     0.000043 - 0.000070
     14112                  0.000056     0.000007     0.000042 - 0.000070
     14113                  0.000056     0.000008     0.000041 - 0.000070
     14114                  0.000057     0.000008     0.000041 - 0.000072
     14115                  0.000055     0.000008     0.000040 - 0.000071
     14116                  0.000055     0.000008     0.000038 - 0.000071
     14117                  0.000057     0.000009     0.000040 - 0.000074
     14118                  0.000057     0.000009     0.000039 - 0.000074
     14119                  0.000055     0.000009     0.000037 - 0.000073
     14120                  0.000054     0.000009     0.000036 - 0.000072
     14121                  0.000054     0.000010     0.000035 - 0.000073
     14122                  0.000054     0.000010     0.000035 - 0.000073
     14123                  0.000056     0.000010     0.000036 - 0.000076
     14124                  0.000056     0.000010     0.000036 - 0.000076
     14125                  0.000057     0.000011     0.000036 - 0.000077
     14126                  0.000057     0.000011     0.000036 - 0.000078
     14127                  0.000057     0.000011     0.000035 - 0.000078
     14128                  0.000056     0.000011     0.000035 - 0.000078
     14129                  0.000057     0.000011     0.000035 - 0.000079
     14130                  0.000058     0.000012     0.000035 - 0.000081
     14131                  0.000057     0.000012     0.000034 - 0.000080
     14132                  0.000057     0.000012     0.000034 - 0.000080
     14133                  0.000058     0.000012     0.000034 - 0.000081
     14134                  0.000058     0.000012     0.000034 - 0.000083
     14135                  0.000057     0.000013     0.000033 - 0.000082
     14136                  0.000057     0.000013     0.000032 - 0.000082
     14137                  0.000055     0.000013     0.000030 - 0.000081
     14138                  0.000057     0.000013     0.000031 - 0.000082
     14139                  0.000057     0.000013     0.000031 - 0.000083
     14140                  0.000058     0.000013     0.000031 - 0.000084
     14141                  0.000060     0.000014     0.000033 - 0.000087
     14142                  0.000059     0.000014     0.000032 - 0.000086
     14143                  0.000058     0.000014     0.000030 - 0.000086
     14144                  0.000057     0.000014     0.000029 - 0.000085
     14145                  0.000058     0.000014     0.000029 - 0.000086
     14146                  0.000057     0.000015     0.000028 - 0.000086
     14147                  0.000058     0.000015     0.000029 - 0.000087
     14148                  0.000055     0.000015     0.000026 - 0.000085
     14149                  0.000055     0.000015     0.000026 - 0.000085
     14150                  0.000057     0.000015     0.000028 - 0.000087
     14151                  0.000058     0.000015     0.000027 - 0.000088
     14152                  0.000058     0.000016     0.000028 - 0.000089
     14153                  0.000059     0.000016     0.000028 - 0.000089
     14154                  0.000058     0.000016     0.000027 - 0.000089
     14155                  0.000058     0.000016     0.000027 - 0.000090
     14156                  0.000059     0.000016     0.000027 - 0.000090
     14157                  0.000058     0.000016     0.000027 - 0.000090
     14158                  0.000059     0.000016     0.000028 - 0.000091
     14159                  0.000060     0.000016     0.000028 - 0.000092
     14160                  0.000061     0.000017     0.000029 - 0.000094
     14161                  0.000062     0.000017     0.000029 - 0.000095
     14162                  0.000061     0.000017     0.000028 - 0.000094
     14163                  0.000063     0.000017     0.000030 - 0.000096
     14164                  0.000062     0.000017     0.000029 - 0.000095
     14165                  0.000064     0.000017     0.000030 - 0.000097
     14166                  0.000063     0.000017     0.000030 - 0.000097
     14167                  0.000062     0.000017     0.000028 - 0.000096
     14168                  0.000062     0.000017     0.000028 - 0.000096
     14169                  0.000064     0.000018     0.000029 - 0.000098
     14170                  0.000064     0.000018     0.000029 - 0.000098
     14171                  0.000063     0.000018     0.000029 - 0.000098
     14172                  0.000063     0.000018     0.000028 - 0.000098
     14173                  0.000063     0.000018     0.000028 - 0.000098
     14174                  0.000063     0.000018     0.000028 - 0.000098
     14175                  0.000065     0.000018     0.000029 - 0.000100
     14176                  0.000063     0.000018     0.000027 - 0.000099
     14177                  0.000062     0.000018     0.000026 - 0.000098
     14178                  0.000061     0.000018     0.000025 - 0.000097
     14179                  0.000063     0.000019     0.000027 - 0.000099
     14180                  0.000064     0.000019     0.000027 - 0.000100
     14181                  0.000064     0.000019     0.000027 - 0.000101
     14182                  0.000064     0.000019     0.000027 - 0.000101
     14183                  0.000063     0.000019     0.000026 - 0.000100
     14184                  0.000063     0.000019     0.000026 - 0.000100
     14185                  0.000065     0.000019     0.000027 - 0.000102
     14186                  0.000065     0.000019     0.000027 - 0.000103
     14187                  0.000065     0.000019     0.000027 - 0.000103
     14188                  0.000067     0.000019     0.000029 - 0.000105
     14189                  0.000066     0.000019     0.000028 - 0.000104
     14190                  0.000067     0.000020     0.000029 - 0.000105
     14191                  0.000067     0.000020     0.000028 - 0.000105
     14192                  0.000067     0.000020     0.000028 - 0.000105
     14193                  0.000066     0.000020     0.000028 - 0.000105
     14194                  0.000067     0.000020     0.000029 - 0.000106
     14195                  0.000067     0.000020     0.000028 - 0.000106
     14196                  0.000067     0.000020     0.000028 - 0.000106
     14197                  0.000068     0.000020     0.000028 - 0.000107
     14198                  0.000068     0.000020     0.000028 - 0.000107
     14199                  0.000069     0.000020     0.000029 - 0.000108
     14200                  0.000067     0.000020     0.000028 - 0.000107
 

Indeed, but sometimes you have to engage the troll in order to prove him ridiculous.

Maybe his username reflects his post content.

Well they are technical people, they are not that good at presentations.

But I prefer honest and natural presentations, rather than some professional salesman overmarketed presentation with voice actors and such.


Haha good luck with that, those projects are doomed to fail because you are just basically giving away free computing power to scientists and don't get any rewards back. It's like a free electricity subsidy to scientists.

No profits there.

I will do another forecast soon of AMP factoring in the new price data, I will also use a higher resolution timeframe now, in order to have a better signal/noise ratio, as high timeframes cut off the signal unproportionally, but too low timeframes are just too hard to calculate, as the data is too big.

It will be interesting to see where the price could go.

I know but that is the big picture, that is the true potential future value.

Here is yerserdays news:

https://blog.synereo.com/2017/01/20/a-new-beginning-synereos-roadmap-and-mission-statement/

Don't look at the small picture, look at the big picture, Synereo will be awesome:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVtrwhdu8cc

Yes it does.

High volatility correlates with a lot of news coming out, which means that events are happening wit hthe coin. If no news are coming out, then the price line is flat, as if it were dead, and forgotten.

Volatility is necessary for an active and healthy coin, especially upward trending volatility.

I disagree, we need to show our support for it, so that others can feel the positive energy. A boring discussion = price won't move, and a sad discussion will make the price go down, and we want neither, we want the price to go up!



Amps are the best!

No. I am just an enthusiastic investor in AMP.

I want it to succeed very hard because I can make a lot of money from this. And I believe it will.


And interesting pattern isn't it.

I would also add this to it:

Of course I didn't mean it literally, said that figuratively.

Because those that buy now, I believe have a great gift in front of them, that they simply can't appreciate.

I mean buying a piece of the future of social media for only 5737 satoshi , that is a once in a lifetime opportunity in my opinion, and those that miss this opportunity will probably feel depressed the rest of their lives. You can literally miss a chance to become a very wealthy person here, in my opinion.


When I woke up this morning and saw the price drop, I was a little bit sad, but then I have remembered myself why I have invested in the first place.

I don't just invest in silly short term trades. I invest in life-changing opportunities only, I like big ROI, and I invest longterm if necessary.

Nobody knows when will Synereo become successful, but when it does, then I believe it will pay back all the patience very very genereously.

I really feel envious about people who can get it for so cheap. I have bought above 6000.

But it doesn't matter. I am in for the long ride. It may take 1 year or 2 years, but I believe in the end I will become very rich from this.

Because the way I see it, the price can easily hit 0.01 BTC and when it does, the world will be ours!

Thanks, I just have a more open mind, and can see past the storm. I ignore small conflicts like these and focus on the big picture.

• The Phone: People used to laugh at it, they haven't invested in it, because they thought it's worthless. They have failed. Who is laughing now?
• The Internet: People used to laugh at it, they haven't invested in it, because they thought it's worthless. They have failed. Who is laughing now?
• Bitcoin: People used to laugh at it, they haven't invested in it, because they thought it's worthless. They have failed. Who is laughing now?
• Synereo: People used to laugh at it, they haven't invested in it, because they thought it's worthless.....What will happen?

You see, people create their own destinies, but nobody who is closed minded and ignorant can become rich. Money only comes to people who believe in something. I believe in Synereo!