At 12:00 am UTC this Saturday, Silk Road is having 10%+ off EVERY item. Now, I don't use Silk Road, since it's illegal, but I know the implications of this for BTC. Silk Road has one of the largest (if not the largest) BTC market. With 10% off, there is going to be a huge volume of BTC being bought, sold, and transacted. Expect it to get hectic.
What are your thoughts on this?
Not everything is illegal and it depends on your jurisdiction. |
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So this interface could be used by an R tradebot? Sweet!
Exactly. Using quantmod and quantstrat with this can make quick trading platforms. If I could order food on R my life would be complete. |
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v 0.2 A few bug fixes from coding in the middle of the night. Also added the delete current order function. https://github.com/ktdservices/Rbitcoinica############################################################################# # Rbitcoinica v 0.2 ############################################################################# # Dislcaimer: Use at your own risk. We make no gaurantees that this will work. Please # be advised that bitcoin is highly volitile and you can lose money. # # Questions: Visit http://www.stochastically.com# Donations: 18DjCVYqbHo6vnEZvVkp9ZNNWHJFnHQoyw # # This software is released under the GNU General Public License, # version 3 (GPL-3.0) # http://www.opensource.org/licenses/gpl-3.0.htmlthis# # Purpose: To utizilize the Bitcoinica API for utilization in R for statistical # analysis and trading. # # R is a free software environemnt for statistical computing and graphics. # It is platform independent. To download see http://www.r-project.org/# # Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer digital currency that enables instant payments to anyone. # For more information see http://www.bitcoin.org# # Version Changes: # v.0.1 - just mimic the Bitcoinica API with R functions # v.0.2 - Minor bug fixes Added a function to delete an existing order ############################################################################### # # To run first download and/or load the 3 required R packages. You can do this by typing install.packages("RCurl","rjson","xts") # After that is completed enter your username and password into R username = "yourusername" password = "yourpassword" # Then just copy and paste the functions into R. # To run a function type the function name and any variables it has. y = tick(pair="BTCUSD") # Most of the functions have output in data frames. buying pair selling Time spread 1 5.54132 BTCUSD 5.59863 2012-01-30 11:33:53 0.05731 ################################################################################# # QUESTIONS: # # If you are confused then feel free to contact me. I can be found on # http://www.bitcointalk.org, username dropoutbox # # Donations: 18DjCVYqbHo6vnEZvVkp9ZNNWHJFnHQoyw |
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You win (kinda). According to my calculations here, a flipist method that closes its position out at the daily close versus a trading strategy that uses the EMA10/21 crossover and closes its position at the daily close loses only $4.0892 compared to $-45.00281. Interesting. I seem to recall Goomboo posting the results of backtesting they'd done for the 10/21 EMA crossover method, with rather phenomenal profits. Have to go take a look to see why the difference is so huge to your test. If I am doing it correctly then it is probably that people are a little more selective. It looked like they used hourly time scales but I may be wrong. On daily time scales the EMA10 and 21 only crossed once for the six month period I looked at. For hourly data there was enough crosses to go short 82 times and long 82 times. My model also assumes that the position was liquidated at the end of the trading day. Most currency traders are not going to wait to take their profit when a sell signal is given. By that time they have lost their unrealized profits. They will have a stops to take their profits. |
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The candlesticks function actually outputs the data in xts format. This allows for indexed time series, which is required for the quantmod package. I plan on modifying my current mtgoxUSD backtester with Bitcoinica's own data set using this function.
The other thing to fix is with the cancel order function. Once I find out how to command a DELETE request then it will work. I know how to get it done in R, but Bitcoinica uses a format _method=DELETE, and RCurl does not like that underscore in "method"
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Motivated by my inability to understand python to use the Bitcoinica API with Python. I coded some functions to use in R. Get it on GitNOTE: This is still in development but if anyone uses this and finds any bugs let me know. Usage is simple. First have R installed. This has only been tested in version 2.14. On Ubuntu I did: $ sudo apt get- install R In Mac they have a package to do the hard work for you. In Windows I have no idea. Then open it up install the necessary packages. They are all available on CRAN so just install like: install.packages("RCurl","rjson","xts")First you need to have your username and password on there. username <- "yourusername"
password <- "yourpassword"You can then paste all the functions in there. The only one not really working is for canceling orders. Then call the function a = tick(pair="BTCUSD")
a
buying pair selling Time spread
1 5.54132 BTCUSD 5.59863 2012-01-30 11:33:53 0.05731 Output is in data frames. One thing I added is a liquidate function. ( position.liquidate ) So if you freak out you can just type position.liquidate() and your active position will be gone. If you found this useful please donate: 18DjCVYqbHo6vnEZvVkp9ZNNWHJFnHQoyw |
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Matthew is the head of the DCAO, which most Bitcoin business owners are members of. He is also the editor of Bitcoin Magazine and the main host for BitTalk TV. He is about as trustworthy of a person as you will find in our little community here. It would have been in bitscalpers best interests to be more forward and open with him. There is no Bitcoin mafia and we would just like to prevent another MyBitcoin from happening. Him insulting Matthew and saying he was extorting him is just absolutely stupid.
I know who he is. What I meant was, bitscalper showing one person their code does not calm the fears of many people. I was trying to explain to bitscalper that they need to open up to the rest of the community and make what they do with their client's money clear. He made it seem like if he offered to show a highly trusted member of the bitcoin community his code then he should be trusted as well. My reasoning is, biscalper has a lot more to do than that. |
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I offered Matthew to eventually verify part of our codebase and waiting for someone from the trusted members pool to contact me. Withdrawals are processing correctly.
It is nice for you to offer that, but I don't personally know who Matthew is either. You have a communication problem with the community. When you come out of Beta testing I hope you address people's worries.  |
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1. I guess I always want to have the option of having an even lower opinion of something.
Actually I'm pretty neutral about it. No trust sums it up, but I think you can go lower than that, into active distrust. There is a difference...
Maybe the scale should be more like:
5: implicit trust.
0: no trust.
-5: It's a scam.
That is a good idea. It is also easier to visualize. |
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Aand I'm in again!
BTCUSD 18.0 $5.6715 -$1.79 -1.752%
Long! Going up guys!
Or maybe the powers of randomness are displeased with me. We shall see! I'll now go do something random to gain favour.
You win (kinda). According to my calculations here, a flipist method that closes its position out at the daily close versus a trading strategy that uses the EMA10/21 crossover and closes its position at the daily close loses only $4.0892 compared to $-45.00281. |
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For the record this thread is not an attack on bitscalper. It is an honest attempt to gauge the trust in bitscalper.
I rated them at 5. I don't have a lot of trust in them, but I hope they are not a scam and I think they can improve. Everything has risks and giving your money to someone with a high risk but low reward is not good sense. If they had a Trust Level of 7 or 8, I think their current rate of return would allow me to put my money there.
Other things I don't trust them on is their business model. How long will it last? What happens if they lose money, will I also lose money? Do I still get compensated if their server goes down? Those are questions that they should address.
Trust is not set in stone. If those things are addressed then I would consider parking some bitcoins there for storage.
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he simply won't have my business, that's all.
Exactly. This is all I am trying to say. Let's leave the drama out of this entire thing. Just, as a community, let's stop letting scammy businesses sell their FUD to us anymore. Do not let this community suffer through another MyBitcoin. Let's kindly and quietly raise our standards and show these so called 'businesses' how it's done.I set up a Trust Level poll here on people's personal trust of Bitscalper. Trust can be about anything from security, scamming, or business solvency. |
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As posted here. What is your trust level of bitscalper.com. I think this idea of putting levels of trust around services that use Bitcoin is a good idea. I changed it to a "Trust Level" instead of "Threat Level" to make it more positive. Maybe a service can or is being made to do this exact thing. If you say it has a low threat level then explain why you feel so.
If you feel it has a high threat level then explain how they or someone else could gain your trust. |
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What do you suggest ? do you want us to liquidate everyone and close the site ? we already received multiple requests for taking the system down for private use, or for purchasing it out. by the end of the month we'll be probably doing this anyway.
Has anyone forgotten this post yet? I would be getting your coins out before the end of the month. This seems to connect to what Matthew said in his post in Meta, that someone was interested in purchasing Bitscalper, but backed out. |
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oh yes, the bitcoin economy is completely controlled by a powerful, omni-wealthy entity who chooses to move the price around at will, for their own sick enjoyment.
sounds as bs as any abrahamic religion if you ask me.
we have an instinctive tendency to ascribe intelligence to randomness and see design where there is none.
it is, actually, just like the abrahamic religions, a great way to avoid responsibility. hurricanes are not punishments. they are wake-up calls. each one of us here in this subforum is responsible for the volatility we are seeing.
just trade patiently
This is exactly what the MaNiPuLaToR would say.  |
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some new bits:
I just sent a small amount from MtGox to my BS account. It didnt show up in blockexplorer but was still balanced.
So its obvious that the BS account addresses are from a MtGox account(s).
Consequently:
They can work with the balance even without moving the "physical" coins from that address.
If and when the "physical" coins transferred to these addresses are moved has nothing to do with BS any more.
Therefore, I dont see the bitcoin-moving-behavior as suspicious any more.
This does not prove that BS is legit, but explains my biggest argument.
Of course it rises the question why BS didnt tell this some weeks ago? Seems like they are not as knowledgeable about the details of their project as I would wish..
edit:
And there are still several questions never answered by BS. For example, #358 "why does the payout % change with balance?"
Ente
I go with the assumption that all businesses are legit, but that there are risks doing business with any business. For example, a disgruntled employee can steal their bitcon wallet, or their server host can crash leaving them inoperable. Until they have a terms of service that outlines these risks then I won't do business with them. If Bitcoin can be an open source project then so can businesses that use Bitcoin. |
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yes, if you want..here it is:
Margin Balance $137.93
Tradable Balance $110.66
Leverage 10.0 : 1
Unrealized P/L -$62.45
Net Value? $75.47
Maintenance? $25.76
Money management is really important. I trade like I am going to the casino. At the casino I don't walk in and put all my chips on 13 on the roulette table. I portion it out. If I have $300, I divide that into $100 chunks. But I don't bet that whole $100 at one time. I go to the craps table, place the minimum bets on the best odds that I can get. If I lose a round, I have reserves to back up. With my winnings I put them in my pocket and don't re-bet those. Do the same thing with trading. In this hopefully you have some indicators that tell you when to go long or to go short. |
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I already have the daily scale up. I personally think bitcoin is too volatile to really hold it long term in large quantities, so holding a position for large amounts for weeks or months would be unrealistic if you are using margin.
Right now and for some time to come, yes. You'd have to manage a balanced position by scaling it instead of going all in each time. With Bitcoin, I use weekly data as an overall trending and reversal guide, then daily/hourly to spot scaling opportunities. It'd be more complex using multiple temporal dimensions, but even building on the simple EMA10/21 technique that way would be far more robust - even somewhat predictive. The greater the time-frame, the harder it is to reverse the trend. Next time I will add in scaling. Anyone that wants to jump ahead check out here. R has some other tools such as blotter that can keep track of positions. |
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 It says EMA5/21 on the title of the chart? Thanks for catching that. It should be EMA10 |
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Very nice work.
Also try expanding the time frame to daily & weekly scales.
I already have the daily scale up. I personally think bitcoin is too volatile to really hold it long term in large quantities, so holding a position for large amounts for weeks or months would be unrealistic if you are using margin. |
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