Using modified code from here and here. I ran some backtesting in R to compare the EMA 5 EMA 21 Crossover and a random buy/sell strategy based on a coin flip. Why did I do this? I was making my own trading strategies but got stuck on making one for bullish/bearish divergence and I thought some practice may help me find out what I am doing wrong. The EMA 10 / 21 Crossover Strategy is: 1. Buy when EMA 10 crosses over EMA 21. So EMA 10 > EMA 21, BUY 2. Sell when EMA 10 crosses below EMA 21. So EMA 10 < EMA 21, SELL The Flipist Strategy is: 1. Buy when there is heads 2. Sell when there is tails. Trading dates will be between July 23, 2011 to Jan 22, 2012. A total of 184 days. Money management will be all in and all out. Trades will be done according to the daily close. |
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Did you produce that chart showing historical success of your plan?
If so, how?
Yes, It is using NinjaTrader - an excellent automated and discretionary trading platform. Basically you program a strategy (or use their easy-coding utility) and backtest the strategy on historical data. If you're interested in testing your ideas and automated trading, I highly recommend you learn about the platform. www.ninjatrader.comFeel free to ask me any questions about it if you're interested. Im trying to sign up but it says I need a broker... Can I not just try this out? I dont have a broker. Also less important / off topic: why do people need brokers? Why cant they just connect to the exchange and make trades like we all do to Gox? I tried to download but it says I need Windows 7 or whatever version they are at now. I had to use a Windows computer for a presentation and had no idea what I was looking at. I think I will stick with R for backtesting. It is open-source and is a powerful statistical tool. I don't have to worry about faulty statistical methods in R. There is even a package that allows trading through Interactive Brokers. Ill check this out too Thanks EDIT WTF is that... is a programming language that is used by most statisticians today. Even if you don't know how to program you can use the tools available to analyze data. There are some versions with GUI but I prefer working in the global environment. |
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I've taken on about $2k of paper losses from the top...  How about you? (by the way, these are paper losses... I got in at $2. Also, I never trade, because I always manage to screw myself when I do.) Money management is more important than you trading strategy. |
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Would the results of the historical test be affected by the fact that you couldn't reliably short BTC until recently?
Would the market have been affected by this?
(If so, how?)
If you examine the results, you will see that only 103% of the profit came from short trades. Look at the three columns and their headings. The far right column is only short trades. The long trades would have occurred as advertised. When do you have time to trade with all these posts... Maybe you are a fast thinker. When I make a post it takes me at least 30 minutes... including this one |
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Did you produce that chart showing historical success of your plan?
If so, how?
Yes, It is using NinjaTrader - an excellent automated and discretionary trading platform. Basically you program a strategy (or use their easy-coding utility) and backtest the strategy on historical data. If you're interested in testing your ideas and automated trading, I highly recommend you learn about the platform. www.ninjatrader.comFeel free to ask me any questions about it if you're interested. Im trying to sign up but it says I need a broker... Can I not just try this out? I dont have a broker. Also less important / off topic: why do people need brokers? Why cant they just connect to the exchange and make trades like we all do to Gox? I tried to download but it says I need Windows 7 or whatever version they are at now. I had to use a Windows computer for a presentation and had no idea what I was looking at. I think I will stick with R for backtesting. It is open-source and is a powerful statistical tool. I don't have to worry about faulty statistical methods in R. There is even a package that allows trading through Interactive Brokers. |
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Bitcoinica star shows that bitcoinica does not have funds to support the rally any more - this is what stopped the recent rally. But indirectly it also shows that all bitcoin optimists are now fully in BTC and have no funds left for buying more.
A moment ago it was on both buy and sell. |
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...If only I knew that FOXBUSINESS and The Good Wife were planning on discussing bitcoin...
Does anyone actually watch these shows? I never heard of The Good Wife until these forums. The Good Wife was not even in the top 20 for network shows... For now it is the same nerds and geeks using Bitcoin as before.  |
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Ok, fixed.
The purpose is to get an idea of the distribution of investors. Taking that and the total number of investors allows us to estimate how much money is in the hands of traders with different account sizes.
For example, if 500 people are willing to invest $1,000 they would have equal power to one person with $500,000 if they acted in a coordinated fashion.
With a likely biased sample size of 47? I don't think you will get any meaningful data to manipulate the manipulator with this. |
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I have been playing around with this. It works fine. I have not found any bugs. I wanted to know how would you extract the returned objects. For example: quotes = exchange.get_quotes
quotes
(200, {u'pair': u'BTCUSD', u'selling': 6.3806, u'buying': 6.25541})
I am am just learning python, so how would you extract the selling and buying prices? "quotes" here is a tuple, which means it has numbered entries. for instance, quotes[0] is 200, and quotes[1] is {u'pair': u'BTCUSD', u'selling': 6.3806, u'buying': 6.25541} the thing in braces is a dictionary, which means it has named entries. for instance, quotes[1]['selling'] will give you 6.3806, and quotes[1]['buying'] will give you 6.25541 Thanks Qoheleth! |
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if you just want to buy at lower rates, i suggest look into here http://cc2bitcoin.com/ grab them while you can, i don't think they will keep those rates low for long we ain't crashing Grab what? Credit cards will be billed for the equivalent number of dollars based on the exchange rate at the time the order is processed |
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I have been playing around with this. It works fine. I have not found any bugs. I wanted to know how would you extract the returned objects. For example: quotes = exchange.get_quotes
quotes
(200, {u'pair': u'BTCUSD', u'selling': 6.3806, u'buying': 6.25541})
I am am just learning python, so how would you extract the selling and buying prices? |
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5 digits after decimal point, please. Everyone's predictions must be distinct, one prediction per person. Price will be measured at 2359 UTC 3/1/2012 (March 1st). Winner is the one closest, logarithmically, to the price. This means that if the price is $30, then a prediction of $20 is less accurate than a prediction of $40. The winner gets 2 BTC from me, but feel free to increase the bounty  $4.55782 |
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Price between 6.2 and 6.4 for two days now. That's, what, a 3% range?
Feels downright eerie, especially compared to the volatility we were seeing just a week ago.
And with Bitconica's spreads there is no profitability to set a position. |
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I hope his daily profits are enough to keep him from deciding that the bird in the hand is worth more than the two in the bush.
I dont know why anyone would keep their money in there after the server was down for 3 days. The use of bitcoin makes people cautious for good reason. After you give someone your bitcoins you are at their mercy to give them back. I think one of the pitfalls of bitcoins is the license it was released under. Bitcoin is released under the MIT Open Source Initiative License, which basically means that any modification or distribution of Bitcoin needs to also be released under the MIT License and free or charge to anyone. The reason I see this is a problem is that it fails to also necessitate the use of open source guidelines with the use of Bitcoin in other applications or services. Take for example Bitscalper. Here is a service that uses Bitcoin. I have no problem Bitscalper using Bitcoin to make a profit, but I believe any use of the Bitcoin software should require that the source of any 3rd party platforms be open and publicly available. Even if a service that uses Bitcoin is completely legitimate, bitcoins could still be lost. Just look at BTCinch.com with one of the managers refusing to release bitcoins. The reason why people don't trust fiat currencies is because they are closed. All the decision making goes on behind closed doors and the minutes are not released to the public for years. We have trust in Bitcoin because it is open source. There is a set determined rate of inflation and we can see all the transactions that occur. Bitcoins cannot be charged-back in case of fraud. It is also an international currency market. For this reason trust and reputation is the cornerstone of a Bitcoin service. I see no reason to trust a Bitcoin service with a closed system when my trust in Bitcoin comes from its openness. |
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...By lending Bitcoin you are replacing your BTC with a promise to repay. Further, you are probably doing it as % interest, something that is strongly advised against by every religion I can think of, and for good reason:
Religions against borrowing money? I will add that to my list of reasons why I should become a lender. Bitcoin is about taking the monetary power away from governments influenced by tyrannical despots, oligarchs, philosopher kings, or ignorant mobs. I do not see it as a vehicle to remove profit motive or to destroy lending institutions. In fact I see the future of bitcoin use not by humans but by bots, automated machines, and AI for an intermediate between fiat currencies and quick and cheap electronic way to allocate resources based on a machine's digital ecological value. |
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New version of the scriptAdded feature: shows you how much BTC are your dollars worth and vice-versa, when you hover your mouse over these values:  Sweet. Could you add a function calculate the user's current margin call rate? |
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Things collapse gradually, then suddenly.
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now we have the * for many days why we still have to pay spreads to short ? to give some incentives anyone shorting should pay the market price and the other way around if we get a * on the sell bitcoinica should give incentive to buy and that should be a at market price
They need to make the spread lower and set an account minimum deposit. If that happens then there would be more incentive to trade on smaller moves and the minimum account requirements would allow others to use margin when other people are not. |
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what the point of bitcoinica if they have no reserves ?
I think they are doing it wrong. |
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